June Franklin & Marshall. College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS. Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research. Floyd Institute for Public Policy

Transcription

1 For immediate release June 14, 2018 June 2018 Franklin & Marshall College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College

2 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 KEY FINDINGS... 3 VOTER INTEREST AND TURNOUT... 4 PRESIDENT TRUMP: JOB PERFORMANCE... 4 SENATOR CASEY: JOB PERFORMANCE... 6 GOVERNOR WOLF: JOB PERFORMANCE... 8 STATE ISSUES METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT A MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT

3 Key Findings The June 2018 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that more than half (55%) of the state s registered voters are very interested in the 2018 mid-term elections; more Democrats (62%) than Republicans (50%) or independents (41%) say they are very interested. At the moment, both Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey hold comfortable leads against their Republican challengers, but a large portion of voters, notably Republicans and independents, are undecided in those races and neither Republican candidate is well known yet among voters. More than two in five (45%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Governor Wolf is doing an excellent or good job as governor, which is similar to our March survey. Two in five (42%) registered voters believe Senator Casey is doing an excellent or good job as the state s US Senator, which is a bit higher than his ratings in the March survey. About one in three (35%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, which is higher than his ratings in the March survey. Three in four (72%) of the state s registered voters believe state government needs reformed, with large majorities favoring reforms to campaign finance laws, the structure and operation of the state legislature, redistricting, and state and local government financing. More than seven in ten (71%) favor holding a constitutional convention to review these matters. 3

4 Voter Interest and Turnout Nearly half (55%) of the state s registered voters say they are very interested in the 2018 elections. Voter interest is related to both political party and political ideology. At the moment, more Democrats (62%) than Republicans (50%) or independents (41%) say they are very interested. More self-described liberals (67%) than conservatives (54%) or moderates (45%) say they are very interested. Interest in the election has increased among all groups since our March survey. The outcomes of the 2018 mid-terms will be driven by differences in voter turnout among partisans, but likely voter models based on administrative data and self-described interest produce different results. For example, two in five (44%) voters in the sample have voted in the past three general elections; this produces similar proportions of Republicans (47%) and Democrats (45%) being likely to vote if past voting is an indicator of interest and turnout. But more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (46%) qualify as likely voters when self-described interest and intention to vote is used to measure turnout. President Trump: Job Performance About one in three (35%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, which is an improvement compared to his ratings in the March survey. Figure 1 compares President Trump s job ratings to President Obama s job ratings; President Trump s current rating is below President Obama s rating in Pennsylvania at a similar point in his Presidency. A majority of Republicans (65%) rate the President s performance positively, while fewer Democrats (12%) or independents (30%) do so. Conservatives (74%) are more likely than moderates (24%) or liberals (4%) to give the President positive job approval ratings. 4

5 Figure 1: 5

6 About one in three (33%) voters say they have had an increase in their income because of the tax cut passed in December, although most (63%) of these respondents report seeing only a small increase. Republicans (46%) are more likely than Democrats (21%) or independent voters (36%) to say they have seen an increase in their incomes. Most respondents do not believe (37%) or do not know (23%) that the Trump Administration has made significant changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Half (52%) of those who believe administrative changes to the ACA have been made say those changes will make the healthcare system worse for them. Voters judgments about tax cuts and administrative changes to the Affordable Care Act relate to voters ratings of the President. Senator Casey: Job Performance Two in five (42%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Senator Casey is doing an excellent or good job as the state s US Senator, which is slightly higher than his ratings in the March survey. Two-thirds (64%) of registered Democrats, two in five (42%) independents, and one in five (17%) Republicans provide positive ratings of the Senator s job performance. Senator Casey (44%) currently holds a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Representative Lou Barletta (27%), although nearly one in three (28%) voters remains undecided. More independents (39%) and Republicans (34%) than Democrats (19%) are currently undecided. The dynamics of the race have changed little since our March survey (see Figure 2) and reflect the fact that two in three (66%) voters don t know enough about Mr. Barletta to have an opinion. 6

7 Figure 2: 7

8 Governor Wolf: Job Performance More than two in five (45%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Governor Wolf is doing an excellent or good job as governor, which is similar to his ratings in our March survey. Two in three (69%) Democrats, two in five (40%) independents, and one in five (16%) Republicans provides positive ratings of the Governor s job performance. Figure 3 compares Governor Wolf s job performance ratings to his recent predecessors. Wolf s job performance rating is similar to Governor Rendell s and better than Governor Corbett s at similar points during their terms in office. Figure 3: 8

9 Governor Wolf currently leads his Republican challenger, as Figure 4 shows. Governor Wolf (48%) currently holds a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, State Senator Scott Wagner (29%), although nearly one in four (23%) voters remains undecided. As in the U.S. Senate race, more independents (23%) and Republicans (30%) than Democrats (16%) are currently undecided. The dynamics of the race have changed little since our March survey (see Figure 4) and reflect the fact that half (47%) the state s voters don t know enough about Senator Wagner to have an opinion. Figure 4: 9

10 State Issues Nearly half (45%) of the state s registered voters believe the state is headed in the right direction. Registered voters mention unemployment and the economy (14%), government and politicians (13%), taxes (12%), crime (8%), education (7%), and an assortment of other issues as being the most important problems facing the state. Three in four (72%) of the state s registered voters believe state government needs reformed, with large majorities favoring reforms to campaign finance laws, the structure and operation of the state legislature, redistricting, and state and local government financing (see Table 1). More than seven in ten (71%) favor holding a constitutional convention to review these matters. Table 1: 10

11 Methodology The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted June 4-10, The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 472 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 224 Democrats, 185 Republicans, and 63 independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from L2, formerly Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, ideology, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State and Pennsylvania exit polls. The sample error for this survey is +/- 6.5 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. 11

12 Methodological Notes There are notable differences in the characteristics of respondents depending on how they completed the survey (see Figure 5). The web respondents are more educated, are more liberal, and appear to be more likely to vote than telephone respondents. These demographic differences result in both Democratic candidates performing better among web-respondents than among telephone respondents. Figure 5: 12

13 Attachment A-1 13

14 Attachment A-2 14

15 Attachment A-3 15

16 Marginal Frequency Report Responses may not total 100% due to rounding. REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address? 100% Yes 0% No RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or as something else? 39% Republican 48% Democrat 12% Independent 1% Something else Vot16. Did you vote in the last presidential election in 2016, or not? Yes No Jun % 6% Mar % 8% Sep % 4% May % 3% ChgVote16 As of today, do you feel comfortable with your choice for President or do you wish you could change how you voted? June 2018 Clinton Trump Other (Respondents who voted in last presidential election) n=224 n=188 n=27 Comfortable with your choice 94% 90% 85% Wish you could change 4% 6% 10% Do not know 2% 3% 5% March 2018 Clinton Trump Other (Respondents who voted in last presidential election) n=187 n=149 n=50 Comfortable with your choice 98% 91% 73% Wish you could change 2% 4% 19% Do not know 0% 5% 9% September 2017 Clinton Trump Other (Respondents who voted in last presidential election) n=193 n=138 n=29 Comfortable with your choice 92% 93% 86% Wish you could change 4% 3% 10% Do not know 3% 4% 4% 16

17 May 2017 Clinton Trump Other (Respondents who voted in last presidential election) n=313 n=247 n=49 Comfortable with your choice 96% 94% 76% Wish you could change 2% 3% 21% Do not know 2% 2% 3% Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election for governor and congress in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November election? 76% Certain to vote 12% Probably vote 8% Chances are fifty-fifty you will vote 4% Don't think that you will vote 1% Do not know Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you are very much interested, somewhat interested or not very interested in the 2018 elections? Very much Somewhat Not very interested interested interested Don t know Jun % 40% 6% 0% Mar % 43% 8% 1% Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven t you heard enough about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (rotated) Strongly favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Undecided Don t know TOM WOLF Jun % 30% 14% 19% 5% 13% Mar % 31% 16% 16% 6% 12% Sep % 20% 8% 34% 12% 10% Feb % 29% 15% 19% 13% 11% Feb % 25% 16% 27% 9% 9% Oct % 23% 13% 20% 16% 13% Aug % 21% 9% 17% 18% 13% Jun % 23% 10% 17% 19% 11% Mar % 18% 11% 16% 22% 11% Oct % 20% 7% 18% 18% 16% Sept % 21% 9% 13% 18% 21% Aug % 19% 7% 10% 22% 24% Jun % 20% 5% 7% 20% 32% 17

18 Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don t Undecided favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable know SCOTT WAGNER Jun % 13% 11% 19% 6% 47% LOU BARLETTA Jun % 6% 6% 11% 3% 66% Mar % 7% 4% 9% 4% 69% Sep % 9% 3% 6% 8% 68% BOB CASEY Jun % 26% 10% 13% 5% 29% Mar % 26% 13% 12% 8% 25% Sep % 28% 10% 14% 11% 20% Feb % 25% 13% 12% 14% 21% Oct % 23% 10% 13% 16% 27% Aug % 22% 11% 13% 17% 26% May % 26% 9% 13% 17% 18% Feb % 27% 11% 13% 16% 21% Oct % 20% 12% 19% 14% 19% Sep % 23% 13% 16% 13% 22% Aug % 25% 12% 10% 16% 27% June % 24% 10% 8% 14% 29% Jan % 20% 9% 8% 18% 35% Mar % 19% 11% 8% 19% 37% May % 23% 9% 11% 16% 31% Mar % 24% 10% 11% 17% 29% Feb % 20% 9% 9% 15% 34% Jan % 23% 11% 9% 17% 31% Oct % 21% 9% 12% 15% 32% Aug % 24% 10% 8% 17% 24% Jun % 21% 12% 5% 17% 34% Feb % 19% 9% 8% 21% 32% DONALD TRUMP Jun % 14% 7% 51% 3% 0% Mar % 15% 11% 49% 2% 2% Sep % 22% 9% 36% 6% 6% Feb % 14% 6% 51% 6% 1% Oct % 12% 6% 56% 3% 1% Sep % 12% 6% 54% 6% 1% Aug % 14% 7% 51% 5% 1% Jul % 13% 5% 57% 5% 0% Mar % 14% 9% 56% 7% 1% Feb % 15% 11% 51% 10% 1% 18

19 Vote_Gov. If the 2018 election for governor were being held today and the candidates included (rotated) [Scott Wagner, the Republican and Tom Wolf, the Democrat], would you vote for Scott Wagner, Tom Wolf some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? 29% Scott Wagner, the Republican 48% Tom Wolf, the Democrat 1% Some other candidate 23% Do not know Sen2018 If the November 2018 general election for U.S. Senator was being held today and the candidates were (rotated) [Lou Barletta, the Republican and Bob Casey Jr., the Democrat], would you vote for: Lou Barletta, Bob Casey, Jr., some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? 27% Lou Barletta, the Republican 44% Bob Casey, Jr., the Democrat 1% Some other candidate 28% Do not know GenBalH If the 2018 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (rotated) [the Republican Party s candidate or the Democratic Party s] for the House in your district? 36% Republican Party s candidate 50% Democratic Party s candidate 15% Do not know Rate_Gov. How would you rate the way that Tom Wolf is handling his job as Governor? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as Governor? Excellent job Good job Only a fair job Poor job Don t know Jun % 36% 33% 16% 6% Mar % 37% 33% 16% 8% Sep % 34% 36% 19% 7% May % 36% 35% 17% 8% Feb % 34% 35% 19% 8% Feb % 27% 32% 29% 7% Jan % 28% 36% 26% 6% Oct % 30% 37% 21% 6% Aug % 32% 34% 17% 10% Jun % 31% 34% 16% 13% Mar % 31% 29% 14% 19% 19

20 RateSenC. How would you rate the way that Bob Casey is handling his job as US Senator? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as US Senator? Excellent Job Good Job Only a Fair Don t Poor Job Job Know Jun % 32% 29% 14% 15% Mar % 30% 32% 11% 20% Sep % 29% 27% 15% 22% May % 28% 33% 17% 13% Feb % 27% 31% 14% 18% Oct % 25% 34% 17% 20% Aug % 23% 39% 15% 19% Oct % 31% 33% 18% 12% Sep % 31% 32% 15% 16% Aug % 32% 37% 11% 16% June % 33% 32% 8% 21% Feb % 26% 43% 12% 15% Jan % 31% 36% 11% 19% Oct % 33% 38% 9% 16% Aug % 27% 43% 9% 16% Mar % 26% 39% 9% 23% Feb % 31% 32% 10% 20% Aug % 37% 36% 7% 15% RatePres. How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President? Excellent Job Good Job Only a Fair Job Poor Job Don t Know Jun % 18% 13% 52% 0% Mar % 17% 16% 54% 1% Sep % 16% 18% 53% 1% May % 24% 14% 49% 2% Feb % 19% 13% 54% 1% TAX1. Congress passed the Tax Cut and Job Act in December. Have you seen an increase in your household income because of this legislation? 33% Yes 59% No 8% Do not know 20

21 TAX2. Would you say it is a small, moderate, or large increase? n=153 63% Small increase 35% Moderate increase 2% Large increase HC1. How well does the current healthcare system meet the needs of you and your family? 24% Very well 45% Pretty well 18% Not too well 11% Not well at all 3% Do not know HC1NOT. Why is the current healthcare system not meeting your needs? n=135 55% Cost (ACA/Obamacare): out of pocket expense (premiums or deductibles) too high 7% Cost (in general): out of pocket expense (premiums or deductibles) too high 6% Cost (Medicare): out of pocket expense (premiums or deductibles) too high 5% Constantly changing 4% Link to employment 4% Coverage: plan does not cover much/enough 4% Lack of available options 2% Restrictive: limits choices of where to get services 1% Profit driven, lack of concern for people 1% Need for universal healthcare 8% Other 4% Do not know HC2. As far as you know, has the Trump administration made any significant changes to the Affordable Care Act? 41% Yes 37% No 23% Do not know 21

22 HC3. Do you think the changes to the regulations for the Affordable Care Act will make the healthcare system better or worse for your family? n=191 8% Much better 18% Somewhat better 20% Somewhat worse 32% Much worse 22% Do not know RightDir All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Headed in Right Direction Off on the Wrong Track Don t know Jun % 39% 16% Mar % 40% 15% Sep % 48% 16% May % 50% 19% Feb % 52% 13% Mar % 66% 10% Feb % 67% 12% Jan % 67% 12% Oct % 62% 12% Aug % 54% 13% Jun % 47% 17% Mar % 47% 15% Oct % 61% 11% Sept % 60% 11% Aug % 61% 13% Jun % 59% 11% Jan % 62% 13% Oct % 61% 13% Aug % 62% 12% May % 58% 13% Aug % 56% 13% June % 57% 13% Feb % 56% 13% Jan % 47% 15% Oct % 49% 13% Aug % 53% 13% Mar % 53% 10% Oct % 64% 9% Sep % 59% 10% Aug % 58% 12% May % 55% 10% Mar % 58% 10% 22

23 MIP_PA. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today? Oct Mar Jun Aug Oct Jan Feb Mar Feb May Sep Mar June % 16% 17% 22% 39% 38% 47% 45% 24% 22% 30% 16% 13% Government, politicians 9% 17% 12% 12% 9% 9% 10% 7% 11% 12% 11% 15% 12% Taxes 5% 6% 7% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 7% 5% 9% Economy, finances 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 5% 5% 6% 10% 8% Crime, drugs, violence, guns 25% 19% 18% 21% 16% 18% 12% 13% 16% 17% 11% 9% 7% Education, school 2% 4% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 7% Roads, infrastructure, transportation 20% 15% 18% 15% 12% 8% 9% 13% 12% 8% 9% 12% 5% Unemployment, personal finances 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 8% 4% 2% 5% Healthcare, insurance 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% Immigration 5% 3% 6% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 0% 3% Energy issues, gas prices 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% Environment 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% Bipartisanship 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 6% 1% Social issues 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Welfare 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Racism 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% Justice system, Lawyers 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% Values, morals 1% 1% 6% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Senior issues, social security 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Daycare 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% Retaining, attracting businesses 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Population loss, movement out of state 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Civil liberties 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Population, urban sprawl 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 5% 3% Other 8% 5% 0% 6% 6% 8% 5% 3% 6% 7% 5% 13% 14% Don't know PAgov1. Generally speaking, do you think Pennsylvania s state government needs reform, or not? 72% Yes 16% No 12% Do not know PAgov2. How strongly do you feel about this: Very strongly, somewhat strongly, not too strongly, not strongly at all? n=337 47% Very strongly 47% Somewhat strongly 5% Not too strongly 0% Not strongly at all 1% Do not know 23

24 INTREF. I would like you to tell me if you think each area needs to be reformed. The way campaigns are financed The structure and operations of the state legislature, including the size of the legislature and term limits for elected officials The way state legislative districts are created The way state and local governments are financed Yes, definitely Yes, probably No, probably not No, not at all Don t know 57% 20% 8% 5% 9% 50% 20% 14% 7% 9% 43% 21% 14% 8% 14% 37% 35% 9% 5% 15% Redistrict. State legislative districts are currently re-drawn every ten years based on changes to the state s population. New legislative districts are re-drawn by state legislators and the state supreme court. Do you think state legislative districts should be created by an independent commission or do you think these districts should continue to be drawn by state legislators? 69% Independent commission 16% State legislators 3% Both 2% Neither 10% Do not know ConCon. Pennsylvania s constitution establishes the fundamental law of the state, ensuring basic rights to citizens, outlining the structure of state government, and providing rules by which state legislators are elected and how they conduct the state s business. The state s current constitution was adopted in 1874 and the last constitutional convention was held in Would you favor or oppose a state constitutional convention to review the state s constitution? 39% Strongly favor 32% Somewhat favor 11% Somewhat oppose 9% Strongly oppose 10% Do not know Gamb1 Generally speaking, do you think having casinos in Pennsylvania has been more positive than negative OR more negative than positive for the state? 43% More positive than negative 31% More negative than positive for the state 27% Do not know 24

25 Gamb2 The state legislature approved a bill that creates ten new mini-casinos and allows gambling at truck stops, airports, and online. In general, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this expansion of legalized gambling in Pennsylvania? 11% Strongly favor 29% Somewhat favor 25% Somewhat oppose 29% Strongly oppose 7% Do not know Gamb3 A recent Supreme Court decision allows state-authorized sports betting. In general, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose sports betting in Pennsylvania? 15% Strongly favor 33% Somewhat favor 21% Somewhat oppose 22% Strongly oppose 9% Do not know DEMO I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?) 36% Central 16% Southeast 13% Philadelphia 10% Northeast 10% Allegheny 8% Southwest 8% Northwest AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 8% % % % % % 65 and older EDUC. What was the highest level of schooling you have completed? 1% Non high school graduate 21% High school graduate or GED 16% Some college 14% Associate s degree or technical degree 25% Bachelor s degree 23% Post graduate degree 25

26 MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status are you single, married, separated, divorced, or a widower? 58% Married 29% Single, Never Married 7% Divorced 5% Widow or widower 1% Separated 26

27 IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Don t know Jun % 40% 33% 0% Mar % 40% 33% 0% May % 41% 30% 2% Feb % 42% 31% 0% Oct % 29% 34% 4% Sep % 28% 38% 4% Aug % 32% 33% 4% Jul % 30% 33% 4% Mar % 35% 37% 3% Feb % 33% 37% 3% Jan % 39% 36% 4% Oct % 38% 37% 4% Aug % 36% 40% 3% Jun % 35% 39% 4% Oct % 37% 36% 3% Sept % 36% 38% 5% Aug % 39% 36% 5% Jun % 36% 34% 5% Jan % 43% 28% 5% Oct % 39% 31% 6% Aug % 42% 33% 3% May % 39% 31% 6% Feb % 36% 35% 3% Oct % 39% 35% 5% Sep % 34% 35% 5% Aug % 40% 36% 4% June % 34% 36% 5% Feb % 39% 40% 4% Jan % 39% 36% 4% Oct % 39% 33% 8% Aug % 32% 37% 7% Mar % 33% 41% 10% Oct % 37% 39% 8% Sep % 34% 40% 10% Aug % 32% 40% 9% May % 32% 40% 9% Mar % 35% 40% 8% Feb % 33% 37% 9% Jan % 30% 42% 9% 27

28 PARTY. Regardless of how you are registered in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent? 20% Strong Republican 10% Republican 11% Lean Republican 6% Independent 12% Lean Democrat 13% Democrat 26% Strong Democrat 2% Don t know GUN. Are you a gun owner? 31% Yes 69% No 28

29 GUN2. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership? Strongly Somewhat favor favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know Jun % 15% 9% 20% 2% Mar % 20% 7% 19% 3% Sep % 23% 11% 24% 4% Feb % 19% 14% 23% 2% Oct % 27% 12% 21% 4% Sep % 21% 10% 23% 3% Aug % 16% 16% 26% 3% Jul % 18% 10% 25% 4% Mar % 17% 10% 28% 3% Feb % 16% 13% 29% 3% Jan % 15% 13% 29% 3% Oct % 13% 10% 31% 4% Aug % 14% 10% 32% 5% Jun % 13% 12% 33% 5% Oct % 12% 8% 37% 2% Sept % 14% 10% 32% 5% Aug % 14% 10% 31% 6% Jun % 12% 9% 31% 5% Jan % 12% 9% 32% 6% Oct % 16% 9% 24% 5% Aug % 12% 13% 33% 4% May % 14% 11% 30% 3% Feb 2013* 43% 15% 10% 28% 4% Aug % 20% 14% 23% 3% Jun % 15% 12% 31% 3% Feb % 17% 15% 26% 3% LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 22% Yes 77% No 1% Do not know VET. Are you a military veteran? 9% Yes 91% No Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 2% Yes 97% No 29

30 RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 91% White 9% Non-white REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 31% Protestant 26% Catholic 16% Some other religion 27% Not affiliated with any religion 1% Do not know BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 23% Yes 74% No 2% Don t know NUMC. How many children under 18 years of age currently live in your household? 74% None 11% One 14% 2-3 1% 4-5 WORK. Are you currently working fulltime, part-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 45% Full-time 26% Retired 15% Part-time 8% Something else 3% Disabled 2% Going to school 1% Unemployed INCOME. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 7% Under $25,000 8% $25-$35,000 7% $35-50,000 25% $50-75,000 20% $75-100,000 31% Over $100,000 2% Don t know 30

31 DONE. Sex of respondent: 48% Male 52% Female 31