State of Missouri General Election

Transcription

1 State of Missouri 2018 General Election Survey conducted October 17 through October 18, ,215 likely 2018 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2018 General Election. Margin of Error is +/- 2.7%. Margins of Error within specific demographics (crosstabs) is significantly higher due to smaller sample size. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

2 Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Josh Hawley: 47% Claire McCaskill: 46% Japheth Campbell: 2% Jo Crain: 1% Craig O Dear: 1% Undecided: 2% Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Saundra McDowell: 42% Nicole Galloway: 46% Undecided: 12% Q: Amendment 2 - Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: -allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes, and create regulations and licensing/certification procedures for marijuana and marijuana facilities; -impose a 4 percent tax on the retail sale of marijuana; and -use funds from these taxes for health and care services for military veterans by the Missouri Veterans Commission and to administer the program to license/certify and regulate marijuana and marijuana facilities? This proposal is estimated to generate annual taxes and fees of $18 million for state operating costs and veterans programs, and $6 million for local governments. Annual state operating costs are estimated to be $7 million. Yes: 53% No: 38% Undecided: 9% Q: Amendment 3 - Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: -allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes, and create regulations and licensing procedures for marijuana and marijuana facilities; -impose a 15 percent tax on the retail sale of marijuana, and a tax on the wholesale sale of marijuana flowers and leaves per dry-weight ounce to licensed facilities; and -use funds from these taxes to establish and fund a state research institute to conduct research with the purpose of developing cures and treatments for cancer and other incurable diseases or medical conditions? This proposal is estimated to generate annual taxes and fees of $66 million. State governmental entities estimate initial implementation costs of $186,000 and increased annual operating costs of $500,000. Yes: 38% No: 51% Undecided: 11%

3 Q: Proposition C - Do you want to amend Missouri law to: -remove state prohibitions on personal use and possession of medical cannabis (marijuana) with a written certification by a physician who treats a patient diagnosed with a qualifying medical condition; -remove state prohibitions on growth, possession, production, and sale of medical marijuana by licensed and regulated facilities, and a facility's licensed owners and employees; -impose a 2% tax on the retail sale of medical marijuana; and -use funds from this tax for veterans' services, drug treatment, early childhood education, and for public safety in cities with a medical marijuana facility? State government entities estimate initial and one-time costs of $2.6 million, annual costs of $10 million, and annual revenues of at least $10 million. Local government entities estimate no annual costs and are expected to have at least $152,000 in annual revenues. Yes: 41% No: 46% Undecided: 13%

4 Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Column % COLUMBIA KC CAPE GIR SPRINGFIELD STL Josh Hawley 51% 47% 61% 59% 38% Claire McCaskill 40% 47% 26% 36% 56% Undecided 5% 3% 2% 1% 3% Table 1. Q1 by DMA - Categorical Column % Republican Democrat Non-Partisan Josh Hawley 87% 6% 41% Claire McCaskill 8% 91% 44% Undecided 3% 1% 6% Table 2. Q1 by PARTY Column % Female Male Josh Hawley 45% 50% Claire McCaskill 49% 43% Undecided 3% 3% Table 3. Q1 by GENDER Column % Conservative Moderate Liberal Josh Hawley 80% 21% 7% Claire McCaskill 15% 73% 83% Undecided 2% 3% 5% Table 4. Q1 by IDEOLOGY

5 Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Column % COLUMBIA KC CAPE GIR SPRINGFIELD STL Saundra McDowell 46% 43% 66% 48% 34% Nicole Galloway 44% 45% 24% 40% 54% Undecided 10% 12% 10% 12% 12% Table 5. Q2 by DMA - Categorical Column % Republican Democrat Non-Partisan Saundra McDowell 77% 8% 34% Nicole Galloway 13% 83% 46% Undecided 10% 9% 20% Table 6. Q2 by PARTY Column % Female Male Saundra McDowell 40% 45% Nicole Galloway 47% 45% Undecided 13% 10% Table 7. Q2 by GENDER Column % Conservative Moderate Liberal Saundra McDowell 71% 19% 8% Nicole Galloway 20% 67% 77% Undecided 9% 14% 15% Table 8. Q2 by IDEOLOGY

6 Q: Amendment 2 Column % COLUMBIA KC CAPE GIR SPRINGFIELD STL Yes 51% 50% 42% 50% 60% No 42% 39% 50% 40% 31% Undecided 7% 12% 8% 10% 9% Table 9. Q3 by DMA - Categorical Column % Republican Democrat Non-Partisan Yes 43% 65% 52% No 49% 26% 36% Undecided 7% 9% 13% Table 10. Q3 by PARTY Column % Female Male Yes 52% 54% No 35% 41% Undecided 13% 5% Table 11. Q3 by GENDER Column % Conservative Moderate Liberal Yes 41% 60% 71% No 50% 30% 20% Undecided 9% 10% 9% Table 12. Q3 by IDEOLOGY

7 Q: Amendment 3 Column % COLUMBIA KC CAPE GIR SPRINGFIELD STL Yes 43% 37% 31% 31% 43% No 46% 53% 60% 60% 45% Undecided 11% 10% 9% 9% 12% Table 13. Q4 by DMA - Categorical Column % Republican Democrat Non-Partisan Yes 32% 49% 31% No 60% 40% 55% Undecided 8% 11% 14% Table 14. Q4 by PARTY Column % Female Male Yes 37% 40% No 48% 54% Undecided 15% 6% Table 15. Q4 by GENDER Column % Conservative Moderate Liberal Yes 32% 42% 48% No 58% 47% 40% Undecided 10% 11% 12% Table 16. Q4 by IDEOLOGY

8 Q: Proposition C Column % COLUMBIA KC CAPE GIR SPRINGFIELD STL Yes 40% 38% 31% 37% 48% No 45% 48% 59% 52% 39% Undecided 15% 14% 10% 11% 14% Table 17. Q5 by DMA - Categorical Column % Republican Democrat Non-Partisan Yes 32% 54% 37% No 57% 32% 47% Undecided 10% 14% 16% Table 18. Q5 by PARTY Column % Female Male Yes 40% 42% No 42% 51% Undecided 18% 7% Table 19. Q5 by GENDER Column % Conservative Moderate Liberal Yes 33% 46% 55% No 55% 40% 31% Undecided 11% 14% 14% Table 20. Q5 by IDEOLOGY

9 DEMOGRAPHICS MEDIA MARKET % Columbia 8% Joplin 3% Kansas City 24% Kirksville 1% Cape Girardeau 5% Hannibal 1% Springfield 15% St. Joseph 2% St. Louis 41% PARTY ID % Republican 41% Democrat 36% Non-Partisan 23% GENDER % Female 53% Male 47% AGE % % % % % % RACE % White 87% African-American 9% Other 4%

10 IDEOLOGY % Conservative 48% Moderate 36% Liberal 16%