Rock the Vote Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D. Partner

Transcription

1 Celinda Lake President Alysia Snell Partner Michael Perry Partner David Mermin Partner Rock the Vote Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D. Partner Daniel R. Gotoff Partner Joshua E. Ulibarri Partner Rick A. Johnson Vice President Tresa Undem Vice President Robert X. Hillman Chief Financial Officer Alan C. Wolf Chief Operating Officer B anners from a Nationwide Survey of 518 Young A dults A ge with oversamples of 75 Latinos and 75 African Americans September 8-17, 2008 including time series data from M Street, NW Suite 500 Washington, DC T F WASHINGTON, DC BERKELEY, CA NEW YORK, NY LOS ANGELES, CA RICHMOND, VA

2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey reached 650 young adults (17-29) nationwide. The base sample of 500 interviews nationwide included 171 respondents reached on cell phones and 329 respondents reached on landlines. We also called oversamples of 75 Latinos and 75 African Americans, for a total of 650 interviews. The survey was conducted September 8-17, Telephone numbers for the survey were drawn using random digit dial (RDD). The data were weighted slightly by gender, age, race, party identification, and phone usage in order to ensure that it more accurately reflects the population. The margin of error for the survey is around +/- 4.4 percentage points. In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible sampling error; that is, the results of a survey may differ from those which would be obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the sampling error depends upon both the total number of respondents in the survey and the percentage distribution of responses to a particular question. The table below represents the estimated sampling error for different percentage distributions of responses. Sampling Error by Percentage (at 95 in 100 confidence level) PERCENTAGES NEAR SAMPLE SIZE

3 Rock the Vote Nationwide Survey of 500 Adults age Nationwide 1 with an oversample of 75 Latinos and 75 African Americans 2 Hello. My name is. I'm calling from National Opinion Surveys. We are conducting a public opinion survey, and I would like to ask you some questions about important issues in the country. We are speaking with over 500 people between the ages of 18 and 29 and would like to include your opinion. This is not a sales call of any kind, and I will not ask you for a contribution or donation. Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American N= GENDER Men Women PHONE USAGE Both Mobile Only Landline Only RESUME ASKING ALL 1. In what month and year were you born? PLEASE CODE IN MM/YYYY FORMAT TERMINATE IF BORN BEFORE NOVEMBER 1978 OR AFTER NOVEMBER [CELL PHONE ONLY] 2. [TS] First, to confirm, have I reached you on your cell phone? Yes No...TERMINATE (don t know)...terminate (refused)...terminate 1 Of the 500 interviews in the base sample, 171 respondents were reached on their cell phones and 329 were reached on a landline phone. 2 We interviewed a total of 168 Latinos and 147 African Americans. These samples were down-weighted into the base to reflect their actual percentages in the population of year olds.

4 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 2 of [TS] For your safety, are you currently driving? Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Yes... SCHEDULE CALLBACK No (don t know)...terminate (refused)...terminate 4. [TS] In addition to a cell phone, do you also have regular landline telephone service in your home? Yes No (don t know) (refused) [TS] [IF YES IN Q4 (Q4=1), ASK:] Do you use that landline telephone to make and receive calls, or is it only used for other purposes such as connecting to the Internet, connecting to a fax machine, or for business purposes? Use to make and receive calls Only used for fax, etc (don t know) (refused) RESUME ASKING ALL: 6. [TS] Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? [IF ANSWER:] Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly? Strongly - Right direction Not strongly - Right direction Not strongly - Wrong track Strongly - Wrong track (don t know) Right Direction Wrong Direction Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 2

5 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 3 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American [SPLIT SAMPLE A] 7. Regardless of who you plan to support for President, once that person is elected and sworn into office, what is the FIRST thing you want them to do something about? Jobs and the economy Iraq/bring troops home Gas prices/energy/oil companies Health care and prescription drugs Taxes Education and the cost of college* Immigration Foreign relations/policy Government corruption and reform Moral values Terrorism and homeland security The environment and global warming The federal budget deficit Gay rights Social Security and retirement (Other) (Don't know) [SPLIT SAMPLE B] 8. [TS] I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people have. Please tell me which one of these you would most like the next President to do something about? READ AND RANDOMIZE: Jobs and the economy Gas prices Education and the cost of college Iraq Health care and prescription drugs Terrorism and homeland security The federal budget deficit Immigration Government corruption and reform Taxes Moral values Social Security and retirement Gay rights The environment and global warming Don't Know/Other Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 3

6 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 4 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and organizations. For each one, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of that person. If you haven't heard of the person {6}, or if you don't know enough about that person to have an impression {5}, just say so and we will move on. [READ NAME] Do you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of [NAME]? RANDOMIZE 9. _[TS] John McCain No opinion Never heard of _Sarah Palin [PAY-lin] No opinion Never heard of _[TS] Barack Obama No opinion Never heard of Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 4

7 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 5 of _Joe Biden Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American No opinion Never heard of _[TS] The United States Congress No opinion Never heard of [END RANDOMIZE] 14. [TS] Often, things come up and people are not able to vote. Would state or local records show that you are currently registered to vote, or like many others are you not registered to vote at this time? Yes, registered No, not registered (ineligible) (don t know) ASK ONLY IF Q14=2 15. [TS] What is the likelihood that you will register to vote for the election in NOVEMER for President, Congress, and other offices are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or like many other people, are you not very likely at all to register to vote? Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely at all (don t know) Likely Unlikely Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 5

8 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 6 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American RESUME ASKING ALL 16. [TS] What is the likelihood that you will vote in the NOVEMBER election for President, Congress, and other offices are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote? Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely at all (don t know) Likely Unlikely [TS] Thinking specifically about this year s election, how closely would you say you have followed the election EXTREMELY closely, VERY closely, SOMEWHAT closely, a LITTLE closely, or NOT AT ALL closely? Extremely closely Very closely Somewhat closely A little closely Not at all closely (don t know) SPLIT SAMPLE A. [SSB SKIP TO Q27] Now I m going to read you some ways that people follow the news and elections. For each, please tell me if you follow the news or the election that way. Do you [READ FIRST ITEM]? RANDOMIZE 18. _read the newspaper Yes No Don t know/refused _watch local television news Yes No Don t know/refused _watch national television news Yes No Don t know/refused _watch cable television news Yes No Don t know/refused Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 6

9 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 7 of _talk to friends and family Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Yes No Don t know/refused _read the news online Yes No Don t know/refused _use campaign websites or get updates from campaigns Yes No Don t know/refused _get updates from campaigns sent to your cell phone Yes No Don t know/refused _watch comedy programs like The Daily Show END SSA Yes No Don t know/refused SPLIT SAMPLE B [SSA SKIP TO Q36] During election campaigns, people sometimes look for information or get involved in different ways. For each of the following, please tell me whether you have come into contact with political candidates or groups in this way during THIS election. Have you [Read Item] RANDOMIZE 27. _attended a political event or rally Yes No Don t know/refused _volunteered with a political campaign or group Yes No Don t know/refused Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 7

10 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 8 of _signed a petition Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Yes No Don t know/refused _visited a campaign website Yes No Don t know/refused _watched an online video of a candidate Yes No Don t know/refused _spoken with friends or family about the election Yes No Don t know/refused _signed up on a candidate s list Yes No Don t know/refused _forwarded or sent an to a friend about a candidate Yes No Don t know/refused _sent or received a text message from a candidate END SSB Yes No Don t know/refused Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 8

11 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 9 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. [If agree/disagree: Is that Strongly/Not so strongly?] [RANDOMIZE] 36. _SSA: [TS] As a group, young people have the power to change things in this country. Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree Don t Know Agree Disagree _SSB: [TS] I have the power to change things in this country. Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree Don t Know Agree Disagree _SSA: This election is an opportunity to make history by electing the first African American president. Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree Don t Know Agree Disagree _SSB: This election is an opportunity to make history by electing the first woman vice president. Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree Don t Know Agree Disagree Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 9

12 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 10 of If the election were held today and the candidates were Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American ROTATE FIRST TWO _Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin _Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ROTATE LAST TWO _Libertarians Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root _Independents Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you support that ticket strongly or not so strongly? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, toward whom do you lean? McCain/Palin strong McCain/Palin not-so-strong undecided lean McCain/Palin Obama/Biden strong Obama/Biden not-so-strong undecided lean Obama/Biden Barr/Root- strong Barr/Root - not strong undecided lean Barr/Root Nader/Gonazalez - strong Nader/Gonzalez - not strong undecided - lean Nader/Gonzalez Undecided-no lean McCain/Palin Obama/Biden Barr/Root Nader/Gonzalez Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 10

13 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 11 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American ASK NON-OBAMA VOTERS EVERYONE EXCEPT Q40= Even though you are not supporting Barack Obama now, what are the chances that you might support Obama in the election for president in November is there a fair chance that you might support that candidate, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all you might support that candidate? Fair chance A small chance Just a very slight chance Not a chance at all (Don t know/refused) ASK NON-MCCAIN VOTERS EVERYONE EXCEPT Q40= Even though you are not supporting John McCain now, what are the chances that you might support McCain in the election for president in November is there a fair chance that you might support him, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all you might support him? Fair chance A small chance Just a very slight chance Not a chance at all (Don t know/refused) RESUME ASKING ALL 43. [TS] If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for [ROTATE:] _the Republican candidate, OR _the Democratic candidate, or someone else? Republican Democrat Someone else (won t vote on that race) (don t know/refused) Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 11

14 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 12 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American [SPLIT SAMPLE C ONLY] [SSD SKIP TO Q48] Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. Regardless of the candidate you currently support, please tell me which candidate you feel each phrase describes better-- John McCain or Barack Obama. Here s the first one: RANDOMIZE [READ ITEM] Is that a better description of John McCain or Barack Obama? [FOLLOW UP:] Is that MUCH better or just SOMEWHAT better? 44. _[TS] Shares your values McCain Much McCain Somewhat Obama Somewhat Obama Much Both Neither Don t Know McCain Obama _[TS] Has the right experience McCain Much McCain Somewhat Obama Somewhat Obama Much Both Neither Don t Know McCain Obama _[TS] Understands the problems of...people your age McCain Much McCain Somewhat Obama Somewhat Obama Much Both Neither Don t Know McCain Obama Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 12

15 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 13 of _[TS] Will bring change Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American McCain Much McCain Somewhat Obama Somewhat Obama Much Both Neither Don t Know McCain Obama [END SSC-GO TO Q52] [SPLIT SAMPLE D ONLY] [SSC SKIP TO Q52] Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. Using a scale from zero to ten please tell me how important that quality is to your vote for president. Ten means it is EXTREMELY important and zero means it is not important at all to your vote for president. You can use any number in between. Here s the first one: [READ ITEM] On a scale of zero to ten, how important is that to your vote for president. Ten means it is EXTREMELY important and zero means it is not important at all....record RANDOMIZE (DON T KNOW =99) 48. _Shares your values Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Has the right experience Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 13

16 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 14 of _Understands the problems of people your age Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Will bring change Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) [END SSD] [SPLIT SAMPLE A] [SSB SKIP TO Q61] Here are some issues candidates for president might talk about this fall. Please tell me if thus far you think candidates have spent too much time, not enough time, or about the right amount of time discussing each issue. [RANDOMIZE LIST] 52. _[TS] War in Iraq Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] Health care Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] Creating jobs Too much Not enough About right Don t Know Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 14

17 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 15 of _[TS] Homeland security and terrorism Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] College affordability Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] Gas prices and energy Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] Moral and values-based issues Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _Global warming and the environment Too much Not enough About right Don t Know _[TS] Immigration Too much Not enough About right Don t Know [END SPLIT SAMPLE A, SKIP TO Q70] Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 15

18 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 16 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American [SPLIT SAMPLE B] [SSA SKIP TO Q70] Here are some issues candidates for president might talk about this fall. Using a scale from zero to ten please tell me how important that issue is to your vote for president. Ten means it is EXTREMELY important and zero means it is not important at all to your vote for president. You can use any number in between.... [RANDOMIZE LIST] 61. _War in Iraq Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Health care Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Creating jobs Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Homeland security and terrorism Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 16

19 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 17 of _College affordability Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Gas prices and energy Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) _Moral and values-based issues Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) Global warming and the environment Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) Immigration Mean Important Neutral Unimportant (Don t know) [END SPLIT SAMPLE B] Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 17

20 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 18 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American RESUME ASKING ALL: Thank you. The few remaining questions are for classification purposes only. 70. [TS] Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats? strong Republican not so strong Republican indep. leans Republican independent indep. leans Democrat not so strong Democrat strong Democrat dk/na/other Republican Democrat [TS] What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? [DO NOT READ] 1-11th grade High school graduate Non-college post H.S.(e.g. tech) Some college Associate s degree (2 year college) College graduate Post-graduate school (don't know) [TS] Are you currently a student? IF YES: Do you go to school full-time or part-time? Full-time student Part-time student Not a student (don t know) [TS] Are you employed full-time? Yes No (don t know) Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 18

21 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 19 of 20 Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American 74. [TS] Are you married, unmarried living with partner, single, separated, divorced or widowed? Married Unmarried living with partner Single Separated/divorced Widowed (Don t know/refused) [TS] Do you think of yourself as a born again Christian or do you not think of yourself that way? Born-again Christian not born-again (don't know) [TS] Just to make sure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking background? [IF NO, ASK:] What is your race - white, black, Asian, or something else? White Black / African American Spanish speaking/hispanic (Puerto Rican, Mexican, etc.) Asian Native American (other) (don't know/refused) [TS] Will this election be your first time voting? Yes, it s my first time voting No, I have voted before (I m not going to vote in this election) (don t know) LANDLINE SAMPLE ONLY 78. [TS] In addition to this landline phone, do you also have a cell phone that you use regularly? Yes No (don t know) Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 19

22 Rock the Vote Post Convention, page 20 of 20 What is your zip code? Total FEB. Latino African 2008 American Region New England Middle Atlantic East North Atlantic West North Central South Atlantic East South Central West South Central Mountain Pacific Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group Page 20

23 TOTAL OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 56% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 57% 15% 26% 265 GENDER Men % 50% 1% 3% 13% 19% % 52% 14% 25% 129 Women % 61% 1% 13% 22% % 63% 16% 27% 136 AGE % 61% 4% 12% 20% % 65% 12% 24% % 55% 4% 17% 27% % 65% 18% 26% % 58% 1% 1% 9% 15% % 51% 24% 35% % 52% 1% 1% 14% 19% % 53% 8% 20% 90 AGE (COLLAPSED) % 57% 4% 15% 24% % 65% 15% 25% % 54% 1% 1% 12% 17% % 52% 15% 27% 158 GENDER / AGE (COLLAPSED) Men % 51% 7% 14% 23% % 62% 11% 18% 51 Men % 50% 2% 0% 12% 16% % 46% 17% 29% 78 Women % 63% 1% 15% 26% % 69% 19% 32% 56 Women % 59% 1% 11% 19% % 58% 14% 25% 80 PARTY ID STRENGTH Strong Democrat % 96% 0% 1% 3% % 86% 8% 21% 60 Weak Democrat % 81% 4% 6% 15% % 86% 7% 17% 66 Weak Republican % 9% 4% 24% 30% % 24% 11% 27% 40 Strong Republican % 5% 8% 11% % 11% 19% 34% 34 PARTY ID Democrat % 91% 2% 3% 7% % 86% 8% 19% 126 Indep % 33% 2% 5% 36% 48% % 52% 21% 29% 43 Indep. w/leans % 45% 1% 5% 22% 31% % 56% 17% 26% 85 Republican % 7% 2% 16% 20% % 18% 15% 31% 74 GENDER / PARTY Democratic men % 91% 2% 1% 6% % 86% 6% 23% 49 Page 1

24 GENDER / PARTY Democratic women OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 91% 1% 4% 8% % 86% 9% 17% 77 Indep. men w/leans % 39% 1% 8% 19% 26% % 51% 19% 25% 44 Indep. women w/leans % 54% 26% 40% % 62% 14% 28% 41 Republican men % 4% 3% 13% 16% % 17% 10% 19% 40 Republican women % 10% 18% 25% % 19% 20% 44% 35 RACE White % 48% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 51% 15% 28% 171 African American % 93% 1% 3% 6% % 83% 13% 19% 36 Latino % 56% 3% 14% 24% % 61% 18% 29% 49 RACE /GENDER White men % 41% 2% 3% 13% 18% % 45% 14% 25% 87 White women % 55% 1% 13% 22% % 57% 17% 30% 84 African American men % 95% 4% 5% % 82% 13% 21% 15 African American women % 92% 2% 3% 7% % 83% 13% 18% 20 Latino men % 55% 5% 12% 17% % 61% 19% 29% 22 Latino women % 58% 1% 15% 32% % 61% 18% 28% 27 RACE / AGE (COLLAPSED) White % 51% 3% 13% 24% % 61% 13% 27% 65 White % 46% 1% 1% 13% 17% % 45% 16% 28% 106 African American % 3% 4% 7% % 84% 14% 21% 17 African American % 93% 3% 5% % 82% 13% 18% 19 Latino % 52% 7% 21% 33% % 66% 23% 27% 19 Latino % 59% 8% 18% % 58% 15% 30% 30 REGION Middle Atlantic % 63% 2% 10% 28% % 54% 13% 19% 37 East North Central % 57% 1% 15% 27% % 54% 16% 32% 42 Page 2

25 REGION South Atlantic OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 60% 1% 0% 14% 17% % 58% 11% 24% 47 West South Central % 52% 1% 3% 15% 25% % 49% 18% 27% 32 Pacific % 50% 5% 13% 16% % 62% 20% 31% 43 REGION Northeast % 66% 4% 10% 23% % 55% 11% 17% 48 Midwest % 56% 1% 1% 13% 24% % 59% 14% 31% 61 South % 57% 1% 1% 13% 18% % 54% 16% 27% 94 West % 45% 0% 3% 15% 18% % 63% 17% 28% 62 REGION / GENDER Northeast Men % 57% 7% 13% 22% % 46% 8% 15% 23 Northeast Women % 75% 8% 23% % 64% 14% 18% 25 Midwest Men % 44% 2% 1% 16% 24% % 60% 12% 22% 31 Midwest Women % 69% 1% 10% 24% % 58% 16% 41% 30 South Men % 50% 1% 2% 13% 17% % 46% 18% 28% 47 South Women % 63% 1% 12% 20% % 61% 15% 25% 47 West Men % 52% 1% 5% 10% 13% % 58% 16% 31% 28 West Women % 39% 2% 21% 22% % 68% 18% 26% 34 RUCC DEMOGRAPHIC AREA Metro area (1 million+) % 62% 1% 3% 10% 15% % 64% 16% 27% 85 Metro area (250k-1 million) % 46% 1% 23% 31% % 55% 9% 22% 29 Metro area (under 250k) % 47% 1% 1% 19% 27% % 61% 23% 36% 22 Non-Metro area % 43% 2% 4% 14% % 38% 18% 24% 39 EDUCATION H.S./Less % 54% 0% 4% 17% 23% % 50% 21% 33% 85 Post H.S % 57% 1% 2% 12% 20% % 65% 11% 22% 113 Non-college grad % 55% 1% 3% 14% 21% % 58% 15% 27% 198 Page 3

26 EDUCATION College graduate or post-grad OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 56% 0% 1% 12% 18% % 55% 13% 23% 66 EDUCATION /GENDER Non college men % 50% 1% 4% 14% 20% % 52% 14% 24% 100 Non college women % 62% 1% 13% 22% % 65% 17% 30% 97 College men % 51% 1% 9% 15% % 53% 11% 26% 28 College women % 59% 1% 14% 21% % 57% 14% 21% 38 EMPLOYMENT STATUS Yes % 55% 1% 2% 12% 19% % 55% 14% 25% 154 No % 58% 2% 14% 22% % 61% 16% 28% 110 STUDENT STATUS Full time student % 60% 0% 5% 10% 17% % 69% 11% 23% 74 Part time student % 60% 2% 2% 18% 24% % 75% 15% 21% 19 Not a student % 54% 0% 1% 13% 20% % 50% 17% 28% 171 STUDENT STATUS / GENDER Full time student Men % 57% 1% 9% 8% 10% % 54% 16% 23% 29 Full time student Women % 61% 2% 12% 23% % 78% 8% 23% 45 Not a student Men % 47% 1% 2% 14% 20% % 48% 15% 27% 89 Not a student Women % 62% 12% 21% % 52% 19% 30% 82 MARITAL STATUS Married % 47% 0% 1% 14% 18% % 41% 16% 29% 71 All unmarried % 61% 0% 3% 13% 22% % 64% 15% 25% 192 Unmarried living with partner % 59% 2% 1% 21% 33% % 72% 11% 16% 37 Single % 62% 0% 3% 11% 19% % 63% 16% 28% 142 MARITAL STATUS /GENDER Married men % 44% 1% 2% 14% 17% % 37% 12% 23% 31 Married women % 49% 14% 20% % 43% 19% 33% 41 Unmarried men % 54% 1% 4% 13% 20% % 57% 15% 25% 97 Unmarried women % 68% 2% 13% 23% % 71% 15% 25% 95 Page 4

27 BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN Born-again Christian OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 48% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 45% 21% 31% 101 Not born-again % 61% 0% 2% 13% 20% % 66% 11% 23% 154 BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN / GENDER Born-again Christian Men % 44% 2% 3% 13% 19% % 36% 21% 31% 49 Born-again Christian Women % 52% 1% 13% 21% % 52% 20% 30% 52 Not born-again Men % 55% 0% 3% 14% 19% % 61% 10% 21% 76 Not born-again Women % 67% 1% 11% 20% % 70% 12% 24% 78 HOW REACHED Landline % 55% 0% 2% 13% 20% % 56% 16% 27% 174 Cell % 57% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 59% 13% 25% 91 PHONE USAGE Cell phone and landline % 54% 0% 3% 13% 21% % 59% 14% 23% 155 Cell phone only % 55% 1% 2% 13% 21% % 60% 12% 27% 67 Landline only % 60% 1% 12% 19% % 46% 24% 36% VOTER REGISTRATION STATUS Yes, registered % 57% 1% 1% 11% 19% % 58% 15% 27% 201 No, not registered % 51% 6% 20% 28% % 56% 16% 25% VOTE LIKELIHOOD Extremely likely % 59% 0% 1% 9% 15% % 66% 11% 21% 160 Very likely % 58% 1% 5% 13% 23% % 48% 20% 34% VOTE LIKELIHOOD Likely % 58% 0% 2% 10% 17% % 62% 13% 24% 206 Not likely % 34% 2% 3% 32% 43% % 43% 20% 31% ATTENTION TO ELECTION Extremely closely % 59% 1% 1% 6% 11% % 58% 17% 22% 46 Very closely % 59% 1% 1% 9% 11% % 62% 10% 19% 67 Somewhat closely % 55% 2% 16% 30% % 59% 15% 29% 100 A little closely % 42% 6% 27% 34% % 54% 12% 28% ATTENTION TO ELECTION Somewhat to extreme % 58% 1% 1% 10% 18% % 60% 14% 25% 213 Page 5

28 17.ATTENTION TO ELECTION POLITICAL ACTIONS FIRST TIME VOTER 6.DIRECTION OF COUNTRY 6.DIRECTION OF COUNTRY B8.FIRST PRIORITY FOR PRESIDENT 9.JOHN MCCAIN 9.JOHN MCCAIN 10.SARAH PALIN 10.SARAH PALIN 11.BARACK OBAMA Little /Not at all 1-2 activities 3-5 activities Yes, it's my first voting No, I have voted before Strongly -right direction Not strongly - right direction Not strongly - wrong track Strongly - wrong track Right Direction Wrong Direction Jobs and the economy No opinion Never heard (No opinion /Never heard) OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 41% 8% 30% 37% % 49% 21% 33% % 47% 0% 5% 13% 25% % 63% 0% 12% 18% % 60% 0% 4% 16% 21% % 53% 17% 32% % 54% 1% 1% 11% 19% % 61% 13% 22% % 30% 1% 1% 13% 19% % 34% 16% 22% % 39% 1% 7% 11% % 50% 16% 29% % 56% 1% 3% 13% 25% % 51% 19% 31% % 69% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 65% 13% 25% % 33% 0% 1% 11% 16% % 43% 16% 26% % 66% 1% 2% 13% 21% % 62% 14% 26% % 66% 2% 14% 22% % 60% 9% 22% % 8% 1% 1% 8% 10% % 25% 11% 28% % 29% 2% 21% 35% % 48% 15% 28% % 86% 2% 10% 16% % 69% 9% 10% % 92% 1% 1% 5% 9% % 81% 8% 16% % 20% 0% 2% 15% 24% % 42% 14% 28% % 90% 0% 1% 7% 12% % 75% 8% 13% % 6% 1% 1% 8% 10% % 32% 2% 17% 28% % 83% 3% 12% 22% % 93% 1% 1% 3% 5% % 54% 1% 4% 26% 41% % 60% 5% 22% 32% % 19% 0% 1% 12% 19% % 89% 1% 2% 7% 11% % 56% 1% 4% 25% 38% % 79% 0% 1% 10% 17% % 80% 7% 18% 175 Page 6

29 11.BARACK OBAMA 11.BARACK OBAMA 12.JOE BIDEN 12.JOE BIDEN 13.THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS 13.THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT STRENGTH 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT 41.SWITCH TO OBAMA LIKELIHOOD (No opinion /Never heard) No opinion Never heard (No opinion /Never heard) No opinion McCain/Palin - Strong Weak Obama /Biden Obama/Biden - Strong McCain/Palin Obama/Biden Undecided Undecided w/leans Fair Chance OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 4% 1% 4% 14% 20% % 10% 22% 36% % 91% 0% 0% 7% 10% % 94% 5% 9% % 51% 3% 17% 32% % 63% 10% 29% % 5% 3% 15% 26% % 20% 24% 43% % 2% 2% 4% 14% 15% % 2% 20% 30% % 81% 0% 2% 7% 10% % 13% 1% 2% 15% 20% % 43% 1% 2% 21% 36% % 84% 1% 1% 7% 9% % 78% 3% 7% 11% % 13% 12% 21% % 41% 1% 2% 26% 42% % 47% 3% 14% 24% % 58% 0% 12% 19% % 62% 10% 20% % 53% 1% 3% 12% 18% % 52% 14% 31% % 55% 4% 19% 27% % 57% 26% 31% % 60% 1% 10% 18% % 61% 11% 19% % 61% 1% 3% 12% 16% % 61% 13% 31% % 40% 2% 3% 11% 21% % 33% 18% 31% % 54% 4% 19% 27% % 57% 25% 30% % % % 51% % % % 10% % 13% % 7% % 13% % 100% % 100% % 19% 1% 64% 100% % 28% 58% 100% % 10% 60% 67% 48 Page 7

30 41.SWITCH TO OBAMA Not a chance at all LIKELIHOOD 42.SWITCH TO MCCAIN A small chance LIKELIHOOD Just a very small chance 43.HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTE PRESIDENTIAL/ CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT SPLITS SPLIT Not a chance at all Republican Democrat Don't know/refused Vote GOP on both Vote Dem on both Vote Obama but not Dem House Others A B C D AC AD BC BD OBAMA/ BIDEN - 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT DEM. MINUS MCCAIN/ Obama/ Nader/ Undecided REPUB. ID PALIN McCain/Palin Biden Barr/Root Gonzalez Undecided w/leans Total % 1% 3% 8% 13% % 3% 44% 55% % 2% 17% 25% % 1% 2% 5% 8% % 7% 0% 1% 12% 14% % 16% 17% 32% % 91% 1% 5% 10% % 84% 9% 18% % 38% 4% 27% 47% % 48% 27% 37% % 3% % 13% % 5% % 10% % 14% % 13% 84% 85% % 100% % 55% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 56% 0% 2% 13% 21% % 56% 0% 2% 13% 20% % 55% 1% 2% 13% 20% % 56% 2% 13% 20% % 54% 2% 1% 13% 19% % 56% 0% 2% 13% 20% % 57% 3% 13% 21% 130 Page 8

31 TOTAL GENDER AGE AGE (COLLAPSED) GENDER / AGE (COLLAPSED) PARTY ID STRENGTH PARTY ID GENDER / PARTY RACE RACE /GENDER Men Women Men Men Women Women Strong Democrat Weak Democrat Weak Republican Strong Republican Democrat Indep. Indep. w/leans Republican Democratic men Democratic women Indep. men w/leans Indep. women w/leans Republican men Republican women White African American Latino White men White women African American men DEM. MINUS OBAMA/ BIDEN - MCCAIN/ McCain/Palin McCain/Palin - Not so Undecided - lean McCain Obama/Biden Obama/Biden - Not so Undecided - lean 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT REPUB. ID PALIN - Strong strong Palin - Strong strong Obama/Biden Strong Not so strong Strong Not so strong Gonzalez no lean Total % 3% 3% 48% 4% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 8% 4% 43% 7% 7% 15% % 3% 3% 43% 4% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 13% % 10% 4% 37% 8% 7% 14% % 2% 3% 52% 3% 5% 0% 1% 13% % 6% 4% 48% 7% 8% 16% % 1% 2% 50% 5% 6% 3% 1% 1% 12% % 7% 2% 47% 8% 10% 12% % 1% 5% 46% 4% 5% 2% 1% 1% 17% % 8% 2% 46% 13% 6% 18% % 4% 4% 52% 2% 3% 1% 1% 9% % 6% 4% 42% 2% 7% 24% % 4% 2% 45% 4% 3% 1% 0% 1% 14% % 11% 5% 38% 7% 7% 8% % 1% 4% 48% 5% 5% 3% 1% 1% 15% % 7% 2% 47% 11% 8% 15% % 4% 2% 48% 3% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 12% % 8% 5% 40% 5% 7% 15% % 1% 5% 43% 5% 4% 5% 2% 14% % 14% 3% 44% 13% 5% 11% % 5% 2% 43% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 12% % 7% 4% 32% 5% 8% 17% % 1% 3% 52% 5% 7% 1% 15% % 1% 1% 49% 9% 11% 19% % 3% 3% 53% 2% 4% 1% 11% % 10% 5% 47% 5% 6% 14% % 93% 2% 2% 0% 1% % 1% 1% 65% 9% 12% 8% % 2% 3% 65% 10% 6% 1% 2% 1% 6% % 2% 60% 16% 10% 7% % 9% 6% 8% 1% 4% 24% % 26% 14% 20% 2% 2% 11% % 6% 3% 5% 8% % 12% 7% 3% 8% 19% % 1% 1% 83% 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% 3% % 2% 1% 62% 13% 11% 8% % 4% 3% 20% 4% 9% 1% 1% 2% 2% 36% % 7% 2% 46% 6% 21% % 3% 3% 33% 5% 6% 0% 0% 4% 2% 22% % 10% 2% 43% 6% 7% 17% % 8% 5% 6% 1% 2% 16% % 20% 11% 12% 1% 5% 15% % 1% 1% 82% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 3% 2% 55% 16% 15% 6% % 0% 1% 85% 4% 3% 1% 0% 4% % 1% 68% 10% 8% 9% % 5% 2% 30% 5% 4% 1% 1% 6% 3% 19% % 10% 2% 36% 10% 5% 19% % 1% 5% 38% 6% 9% 26% % 11% 3% 49% 2% 10% 14% % 7% 3% 4% 3% 13% % 23% 8% 15% 2% 10% % 8% 6% 9% 1% 18% % 16% 14% 9% 10% 20% % 3% 3% 40% 4% 4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 13% % 9% 4% 34% 8% 8% 15% % 1% 91% 1% 1% 1% 3% % 2% 71% 6% 6% 13% % 6% 4% 45% 4% 7% 2% 1% 0% 14% % 6% 5% 52% 4% 5% 18% % 4% 3% 34% 5% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 13% % 13% 4% 27% 10% 8% 14% % 2% 3% 46% 4% 6% 1% 13% % 6% 4% 42% 7% 9% 17% % 92% 1% 1% 4% % 70% 4% 8% 13% 15 Barr/Root - Barr/Root - Nader/ Gonzalez - Nader/ Gonzalez - Undecided - lean Nader/ Undecided - Page 9

32 RACE /GENDER RACE / AGE (COLLAPSED) REGION REGION REGION / GENDER RUCC DEMOGRAPHIC AREA EDUCATION African American women Latino men Latino women White White African American African American Latino Latino Middle Atlantic East North Central South Atlantic West South Central Pacific Northeast Midwest South West Northeast Men Northeast Women Midwest Men Midwest Women South Men South Women West Men West Women Metro area (1 million+) Metro area (250k-1 million) Metro area (under 250k) Non-Metro area H.S./Less Post H.S. Non-college grad DEM. MINUS OBAMA/ BIDEN - MCCAIN/ McCain/Palin McCain/Palin - Not so Undecided - lean McCain Obama/Biden Obama/Biden - Not so Undecided - lean 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT REPUB. ID PALIN - Strong strong Palin - Strong strong Obama/Biden Strong Not so strong Strong Not so strong Gonzalez no lean Total % 89% 1% 2% 2% 3% % 71% 8% 5% 13% % 5% 45% 4% 5% 4% 1% 12% % 1% 7% 51% 7% 3% 19% % 6% 7% 45% 5% 8% 1% 15% % 9% 4% 53% 2% 6% 18% % 1% 5% 40% 5% 6% 2% 1% 13% % 10% 3% 36% 14% 11% 13% % 4% 2% 40% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 13% % 9% 5% 33% 5% 7% 16% % 3% 3% 4% % 73% 4% 7% 14% % 1% 91% 2% 3% % 4% 69% 8% 5% 13% % 3% 3% 41% 4% 7% 5% 1% 1% 21% % 3% 56% 8% 1% 23% % 8% 4% 48% 5% 6% 8% % 9% 7% 49% 2% 7% 15% % 2% 5% 46% 5% 12% 1% 1% 10% % 22% 5% 41% 12% 1% 13% % 1% 4% 48% 1% 8% 1% 15% % 6% 6% 38% 8% 9% 16% % 3% 2% 55% 5% 1% 1% 0% 14% % 1% 4% 42% 7% 9% 11% % 4% 5% 45% 3% 5% 1% 3% 15% % 14% 3% 40% 3% 6% 18% % 5% 1% 47% 2% 2% 3% 1% 13% % 1% 46% 6% 10% 20% % 2% 4% 49% 8% 9% 1% 2% 10% % 19% 4% 44% 10% 1% 11% % 2% 4% 49% 1% 6% 1% 1% 1% 13% % 10% 4% 37% 9% 13% 14% % 3% 3% 51% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 6% 4% 43% 4% 7% 16% % 5% 1% 41% 3% 2% 0% 2% 1% 15% % 3% 46% 8% 8% 17% % 1% 7% 47% 7% 3% 3% 5% 13% % 31% 4% 33% 10% 3% 8% % 3% 1% 51% 10% 14% 8% % 8% 4% 55% 9% 14% % 3% 5% 39% 1% 4% 2% 1% 16% % 6% 2% 40% 13% 7% 12% % 4% 59% 1% 8% 1% 10% % 15% 6% 34% 5% 18% 16% % 3% 2% 43% 6% 1% 1% 2% 13% % 7% 5% 38% 3% 5% 18% % 2% 5% 59% 2% 2% 1% 12% % 4% 2% 47% 6% 8% 15% % 5% 45% 3% 4% 1% 5% 10% % 2% 35% 10% 13% 16% % 5% 1% 37% 2% 2% 21% % 3% 56% 7% 4% 18% % 5% 1% 56% 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 10% % 6% 6% 53% 5% 5% 16% % 2% 5% 41% 2% 3% 1% 23% % 11% 2% 40% 3% 12% 9% % 1% 1% 35% 6% 7% 1% 1% 19% % 3% 41% 10% 11% 23% % 2% 5% 36% 2% 4% 2% 4% % 18% 1% 33% 5% 18% % 4% 2% 47% 3% 3% 0% 1% 2% 1% 17% % 9% 4% 36% 7% 8% 21% % 2% 3% 46% 5% 5% 1% 2% 12% % 7% 4% 49% 8% 7% 11% % 3% 3% 46% 5% 4% 1% 2% 1% 0% 14% % 8% 4% 43% 8% 8% 15% 198 Barr/Root - Barr/Root - Nader/ Gonzalez - Nader/ Gonzalez - Undecided - lean Nader/ Undecided - Page 10

33 EDUCATION EDUCATION /GENDER EMPLOYMENT STATUS STUDENT STATUS STUDENT STATUS / GENDER MARITAL STATUS MARITAL STATUS /GENDER BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN / GENDER HOW REACHED PHONE USAGE College graduate or post-grad Non college men Non college women College men College women Yes No Full time student Part time student Not a student Full time student Men Full time student Women Not a student Men Not a student Women Married All unmarried Unmarried living with partner Single Married men Married women Unmarried men Unmarried women Born-again Christian Not born-again Born-again Christian Men Born-again Christian Women Not born-again Men Not born-again Women Landline Cell Cell phone and landline Cell phone only Landline only DEM. MINUS OBAMA/ BIDEN - MCCAIN/ McCain/Palin McCain/Palin - Not so Undecided - lean McCain Obama/Biden Obama/Biden - Not so Undecided - lean 40.PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT REPUB. ID PALIN - Strong strong Palin - Strong strong Obama/Biden Strong Not so strong Strong Not so strong Gonzalez no lean Total % 3% 4% 51% 2% 3% 0% 1% 12% % 9% 3% 41% 7% 7% 13% % 3% 2% 42% 5% 3% 1% 3% 1% 14% % 10% 4% 38% 9% 6% 14% % 3% 3% 52% 4% 6% 1% 13% % 5% 4% 49% 6% 9% 17% % 6% 5% 48% 2% 1% 1% 9% % 9% 4% 34% 7% 11% 11% % 1% 3% 54% 1% 4% 1% 14% % 9% 3% 46% 7% 4% 14% % 3% 3% 46% 4% 4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 12% % 7% 4% 42% 7% 6% 14% % 2% 3% 51% 3% 4% 1% 1% 14% % 9% 3% 43% 8% 9% 16% % 1% 4% 51% 6% 2% 0% 4% 1% 10% % 10% 2% 50% 8% 10% 11% % 1% 48% 6% 6% 1% 1% 2% 18% % 7% 69% 6% 15% % 4% 3% 47% 2% 4% 0% 0% 1% 13% % 7% 5% 36% 8% 6% 17% % 2% 1% 48% 9% 1% 1% 9% 8% % 17% 2% 41% 8% 6% 16% % 7% 54% 4% 3% 2% 12% % 5% 2% 56% 9% 13% 8% % 4% 4% 42% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 14% % 7% 5% 32% 9% 7% 15% % 4% 2% 52% 3% 7% 12% % 8% 5% 40% 6% 6% 19% % 4% 2% 41% 3% 3% 0% 1% 14% % 17% 4% 28% 3% 9% 16% % 2% 4% 52% 4% 5% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 13% % 5% 4% 48% 9% 7% 15% % 4% 3% 48% 2% 10% 2% 1% 21% % 5% 61% 11% 11% % 1% 4% 54% 4% 3% 0% 2% 1% 1% 11% % 6% 3% 46% 9% 9% 16% % 2% 2% 42% 2% 1% 1% 2% 14% % 17% 2% 24% 5% 9% 12% % 5% 1% 40% 5% 5% 14% % 17% 5% 31% 2% 10% 19% % 4% 3% 44% 6% 4% 1% 0% 4% 0% 13% % 8% 4% 41% 10% 6% 15% % 1% 4% 60% 2% 5% 1% 1% 13% % 1% 3% 55% 8% 7% 15% % 3% 3% 42% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 13% 2% 34% 3% 8% 21% % 2% 3% 53% 4% 4% 0% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 5% 4% 48% 10% 8% 11% % 4% 3% 36% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 13% % 15% 2% 28% 1% 8% 21% % 2% 4% 47% 2% 3% 1% 13% % 11% 3% 39% 6% 7% 20% % 3% 3% 48% 4% 2% 0% 2% 0% 14% % 6% 5% 42% 13% 6% 10% % 2% 3% 57% 4% 6% 1% 0% 11% % 4% 3% 54% 7% 9% 12% % 3% 3% 47% 3% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 9% 4% 45% 4% 7% 16% % 2% 4% 49% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 13% % 7% 3% 38% 13% 8% 13% % 3% 3% 47% 4% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 13% % 7% 4% 47% 7% 6% 14% % 1% 4% 48% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 13% % 7% 3% 38% 10% 11% 12% % 4% 1% 52% 3% 5% 1% 12% % 12% 4% 33% 5% 8% 24% 43 Barr/Root - Barr/Root - Nader/ Gonzalez - Nader/ Gonzalez - Undecided - lean Nader/ Undecided - Page 11