Weekly trackers; Iraq WMD; Economy; Issues trackers including jobs outsourcing, health insurance, charter schools, abortion, homosexual marriage

Transcription

1 Economist / YouGov Poll Week 2 Fieldwork July 2004 Sample size: : 2012 "Registered to ": 1663 "Will definitely ": 1492 MoE: +/- 2% Sample drawn from a recruited panel and weighted to be representative of the US over 18 population Weekly trackers; Iraq WMD; Economy; Issues trackers including jobs outsourcing, health insurance, charter schools, abortion, homosexual marriage WEEKLY TRACKERS Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else? George Bush 42% 43% 45% 48% 37% 29% 41% 44% 52% 8% 90% John Kerry 43% 44% 45% 38% 48% 58% 43% 41% 37% 81% 6% Ralph Nader 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% Someone else 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 1% 3% 0% Would not 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Don't know 8% 8% 6% 7% 10% 9% 10% 8% 7% 6% 4% As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2? Vote for George W Bush 45% 45% 46% 50% 39% 31% 43% 46% 56% 9% 92% Vote for John F Kerry 46% 47% 48% 41% 51% 62% 46% 44% 38% 84% 6% Vote for Ralph Nader 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% Vote for someone else 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 0% Not at all 2% 2% 0% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied 37% 39% 41% 43% 31% 27% 36% 37% 47% 11% 76% Dissatisfied 58% 57% 56% 53% 62% 61% 58% 59% 52% 86% 20% Don't know 6% 4% 3% 4% 7% 12% 7% 4% 1% 3% 3% Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve 42% 44% 45% 48% 36% 27% 41% 43% 53% 9% 87% Disapprove 51% 52% 52% 48% 55% 61% 52% 51% 44% 86% 9% Don't know 7% 4% 3% 5% 9% 12% 7% 6% 3% 4% 3%

2 IRAQ Looking back, do you think the public was given false information about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? I DO think the public were given false information 60% 61% 61% 60% 60% 68% 60% 60% 56% 85% 31% I do NOT 24% 25% 27% 28% 21% 13% 24% 24% 33% 6% 50% Don't know 15% 14% 13% 12% 19% 19% 16% 15% 11% 9% 19% How much do you blame each of the following for giving false information last year about Iraq's 'weapons of mass destruction'? Summary - Registered rs only The White House The Pentagon The US Military The CIA Blame a lot Blame a little Blame [a lot + little] The White House Blame a lot 41% 42% 44% 39% 42% 44% 39% 44% 37% 71% 7% Blame a little 17% 17% 14% 17% 17% 21% 19% 16% 12% 17% 15% Do not blame much 10% 10% 9% 11% 9% 7% 10% 11% 11% 4% 17% Do not blame at all 14% 14% 15% 18% 10% 6% 13% 13% 22% 2% 29% information was true 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 8% 11% 11% 12% 2% 24% Don't know 8% 7% 5% 4% 12% 15% 9% 5% 6% 5% 7% The Pentagon Blame a lot 32% 32% 34% 32% 33% 30% 31% 36% 29% 50% 9% Blame a little 28% 29% 27% 30% 27% 33% 29% 27% 26% 33% 25% Do not blame much 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 8% 15% Do not blame at all 11% 11% 12% 14% 8% 5% 10% 11% 19% 2% 21% information was true 10% 10% 12% 10% 10% 7% 11% 10% 10% 2% 23% Don't know 9% 7% 6% 4% 13% 17% 9% 6% 4% 6% 7% The US Military Blame a lot 11% 10% 10% 9% 13% 10% 11% 12% 8% 15% 4% Blame a little 23% 24% 23% 24% 23% 21% 24% 26% 21% 30% 14% Do not blame much 20% 21% 20% 21% 19% 26% 20% 19% 16% 26% 15% Do not blame at all 29% 29% 31% 33% 24% 22% 26% 28% 40% 22% 38% information was true 10% 10% 12% 10% 10% 7% 10% 10% 11% 2% 23% Don't know 8% 6% 5% 4% 11% 13% 9% 6% 4% 5% 6%

3 The CIA Blame a lot 46% 47% 48% 53% 39% 31% 41% 53% 53% 59% 32% Blame a little 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 28% 24% 21% 21% 24% 21% Do not blame much 7% 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 8% 6% 4% 6% 7% Do not blame at all 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% 8% 4% 11% information was true 9% 9% 10% 8% 9% 6% 10% 8% 9% 1% 20% Don't know 9% 8% 6% 4% 14% 20% 10% 7% 5% 5% 9% Do you think that they will ever find WMD in Iraq? I DO think they will find WMD in Iraq 32% 33% 35% 37% 28% 17% 34% 34% 38% 17% 58% I do NOT 38% 39% 40% 39% 38% 44% 36% 39% 38% 56% 17% Don't know 29% 27% 25% 24% 35% 39% 30% 27% 24% 27% 25% How would you charactize Saddam's ties to al-qaeda? Saddam had no ties at all to al-qaeda 14% 15% 16% 18% 10% 17% 12% 12% 18% 24% 4% There was occasional collaboration between them 32% 33% 32% 37% 27% 36% 31% 31% 33% 32% 30% There was a significant partnership 28% 28% 28% 26% 30% 25% 28% 30% 27% 17% 43% They were working together all the time 13% 12% 12% 10% 15% 4% 14% 16% 10% 11% 17% Don't know 14% 12% 11% 10% 17% 18% 14% 11% 13% 16% 7% ECONOMY TRACKERS Summary - Registered rs only [ 1 ] Economy over the last year [ 2 ] Expectation for next 12 months [ 3 ] Personally better/worse off than a year ago? [ 4 ] Expectations for personal financial situation next 12 months [ 5 ] Effect of federal government policies in last year [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] [ 4 ] [ 5 ] Better 45% 49% 27% 58% 27% Worse 32% 18% 41% 12% 39%

4 Now thinking about the economy in the country as a whole, would you say that over the past year, the nation s economy has gotten better, stayed about the same, or gotten worse? Gotten a lot better 14% 16% 17% 21% 7% 9% 10% 12% 30% 1% 36% Gotten a little better 29% 29% 30% 32% 25% 28% 29% 31% 24% 23% 40% Stayed about the same 22% 21% 21% 20% 24% 28% 23% 20% 20% 24% 14% Gotten a little worse 20% 19% 18% 16% 24% 22% 22% 20% 16% 27% 7% Gotten a lot worse 14% 13% 13% 10% 17% 5% 15% 16% 11% 23% 2% Don t know 2% 1% 0% 1% 3% 7% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% What about the next 12 months? Do you expect the economy in the country as a whole to get better, stay about the same, or get worse? Get a lot better 13% 14% 16% 19% 8% 10% 11% 13% 22% 3% 32% Get a little better 35% 35% 36% 40% 29% 39% 33% 34% 36% 29% 46% Stay about the same 27% 27% 26% 21% 34% 26% 30% 28% 22% 36% 15% Get a little worse 14% 14% 13% 13% 16% 12% 14% 17% 12% 18% 5% Get a lot worse 5% 4% 4% 4% 6% 1% 8% 5% 2% 7% 1% Don t know 5% 5% 4% 3% 8% 11% 6% 2% 6% 7% 2% We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you are better off financially than you were a year ago, worse off, or about the same?' A lot better off 7% 7% 8% 8% 5% 9% 6% 6% 7% 2% 15% A little better off 20% 20% 21% 23% 17% 20% 22% 18% 18% 14% 31% About the same 30% 31% 30% 31% 29% 31% 27% 28% 39% 31% 32% A little worse off 25% 25% 24% 23% 26% 27% 23% 25% 25% 29% 15% A lot worse off 17% 16% 16% 14% 21% 7% 21% 21% 11% 24% 7% Don t know 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Now looking ahead and thinking about the next few years, do you expect your financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same as it is now?' A lot better 18% 19% 21% 21% 16% 17% 20% 20% 11% 12% 30% A little better 39% 39% 39% 38% 40% 49% 43% 37% 29% 42% 41% About the same 25% 25% 24% 26% 23% 13% 22% 25% 40% 26% 23% A little worse 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 6% 9% 12% 9% 3% A lot worse 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 4% 4% 5% 4% 1% Don t know 6% 5% 5% 3% 8% 11% 6% 5% 3% 7% 2% Over the past year, would you say that the economic policies of the federal government have made the nation's economy better, worse, or haven't they made much difference either way? Better 25% 27% 29% 34% 16% 12% 22% 26% 39% 4% 59% Worse 39% 39% 39% 33% 44% 34% 41% 40% 33% 60% 12% Haven t made much difference 30% 28% 27% 29% 30% 36% 31% 29% 24% 31% 24% Don t know 7% 6% 5% 4% 10% 18% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

5 ISSUE TRACKERS Recently, some big American companies have been hiring workers in foreign countries to replace workers in the US, such as people who take customer service telephone calls. Do you think the federal government should discourage companies from doing this, encourage companies to do this, or stay out of this matter? Discourage a great deal 56% 57% 56% 49% 63% 44% 61% 61% 46% 65% 48% Discourage a a little 17% 17% 17% 18% 16% 18% 18% 16% 14% 17% 19% Encourage a little 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 9% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% Encourage a great deal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Stay out of this matter 20% 20% 21% 28% 12% 15% 14% 20% 36% 13% 28% Don t know 3% 3% 2% 2% 5% 13% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% Local communities are allowed to start independent public schools, called charter schools, if they are not satisfied with their own public schools. These schools are funded by the government but run by local residents and not regulated by the government. However, charter schools have to achieve the same performance standards as public schools in order to continue to operate. Do you favor charter schools being allowed, oppose it, or neither favor nor oppose it? Favor strongly 30% 31% 33% 33% 27% 15% 31% 31% 34% 20% 43% Favor a little 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 25% 23% 22% 23% 23% 26% Neither favour nor oppose 25% 24% 23% 24% 27% 39% 25% 23% 20% 29% 19% Oppose a little 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 7% 6% 4% 9% 4% Oppose strongly 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 6% 9% 13% 13% 13% 6% Don t know 5% 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 2% As you know, the federal government provides health insurance to all senior citizens through the Medicare program. Some people say coverage should be expanded to the entire population. Other people say this should be left to private insurance companies. Which of these points of view is closest to yours? Expand federal coverage 62% 61% 62% 57% 67% 66% 67% 64% 45% 79% 41% Leave to private insurance companies 28% 29% 30% 35% 22% 23% 23% 27% 47% 13% 50% Don t know 10% 9% 8% 8% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 8% 9%

6 ABORTION Summary - Registered rs only In each case, do you think it should or should not be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if... There is a strong chance of serious defect in the baby She is married and does not want any more children The woman' s own health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy The family is poor and cannot afford any more children She became pregnant as a result of rape She is not married and does not want to marry the man The parents want a child of the opposite sex from the baby The woman wants it for any reason Should be possible Should not be possible There is a strong chance of serious defect in the baby Should be possible 68% 70% 69% 69% 68% 66% 67% 67% 75% 81% 54% Should NOT be possible 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 25% 23% 22% 19% 11% 36% Don t know 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 11% 6% 8% 10% She is married and does not want any more children Should be possible 39% 40% 40% 37% 40% 47% 37% 38% 38% 56% 20% Should NOT be possible 54% 53% 54% 56% 53% 48% 54% 55% 57% 38% 76% Don t know 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 9% 7% 4% 7% 5% The woman' s own health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy Should be possible 82% 83% 83% 82% 82% 82% 82% 80% 86% 91% 72% Should NOT be possible 11% 10% 11% 10% 12% 14% 9% 12% 10% 5% 18% Don t know 7% 7% 6% 8% 6% 5% 9% 8% 4% 4% 9% The family is poor and cannot afford any more children Should be possible 43% 44% 44% 41% 45% 50% 42% 40% 46% 59% 25% Should NOT be possible 47% 46% 47% 49% 46% 45% 48% 49% 44% 32% 67% Don t know 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 5% 10% 11% 10% 9% 8% She became pregnant as a result of rape Should be possible 74% 74% 74% 74% 73% 72% 73% 72% 77% 86% 62% Should NOT be possible 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 21% 17% 20% 15% 9% 29% Don t know 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 9% 8% 8% 5% 9%

7 She is not married and does not want to marry the man Should be possible 38% 40% 39% 37% 40% 47% 38% 36% 38% 54% 21% Should NOT be possible 54% 53% 53% 55% 53% 49% 53% 56% 54% 38% 74% Don t know 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 4% 9% 8% 7% 8% 5% The parents want a child of the opposite sex from the baby Should be possible 19% 20% 19% 19% 18% 27% 20% 17% 11% 27% 9% Should NOT be possible 74% 74% 74% 74% 75% 65% 73% 76% 81% 64% 89% Don t know 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2% The woman wants it for any reason Should be possible 31% 33% 33% 29% 34% 43% 33% 28% 26% 47% 16% Should NOT be possible 53% 52% 53% 56% 51% 45% 52% 58% 56% 37% 74% Don t know 15% 15% 13% 16% 15% 13% 16% 14% 18% 16% 10% Would you favor or oppose a law that would allow homosexual couples to legally form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples? Favor 41% 43% 43% 37% 45% 61% 39% 38% 36% 54% 23% Oppose 50% 48% 50% 54% 46% 31% 50% 53% 58% 36% 72% Don t know 9% 9% 7% 10% 9% 8% 12% 9% 5% 10% 6% Do you think marriages between homosexuals with the same rights as traditional marriages should or should not be legal? Should be legal 35% 35% 34% 29% 40% 57% 36% 31% 20% 50% 13% Should not be legal 58% 58% 59% 64% 52% 40% 54% 61% 75% 40% 83% Don t know 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 3% 10% 8% 5% 10% 3%