THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS GWU Battleground 29 #10420: Weighted Tables February 12-15, 2006

Transcription

1 QB LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING IN UPCOMING ELECTION Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely 62% 28% 10% % 29% 23% 81 62% 28% 10% 1020 Q1 Republican GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT Lean Republican Undecided Lean Democrat Democrat 36% 4% 14% 4% 42% % 1% 16% 5% 48% 81 36% 4% 14% 4% 42% 1020 R1 GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C Republican Undecided Democrat 40% 14% 46% % 16% 53% 81 40% 14% 46% 1020 Q2 Right direction / strongly DIRECTION THINGS IN COUNTRY ARE GOING Right direction / somewhat Unsure Wrong track / somewhat Wrong track / strongly 20% 11% 8% 11% 49% % 15% 5% 15% 53% 81 20% 11% 8% 11% 49% 1020 R2 DIRECTION THINGS IN COUNTRY ARE GOING/C Right direction Unsure Wrong track 31% 8% 60% % 5% 67% 81 31% 8% 60% 1020 Page 1

2 R3 Economy / taxes Unemployme nt / jobs Terrorism / nat'l defense Education NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IN YOUR AREA/C Health care issues Social Security Deficit / budget deficit Energy / energy costs Immigration War in Iraq Other / unsure 17% 8% 6% 3% 12% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11% 31% % 9% 3% 3% 12% 2% 1% 6% 2% 16% 33% 81 17% 8% 6% 3% 12% 2% 3% 4% 4% 11% 31% 1020 Q4A President BETTER JOB SOLVING MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Both equally Neither Unsure 33% 47% 1% 10% 9% % 58% 6% 10% 43 33% 47% 1% 10% 9% 516 Q4B BETTER JOB SOLVING MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Both equally Neither Unsure 33% 42% 1% 14% 11% % 43% 2% 15% 16% 39 33% 42% 1% 14% 11% 504 Q5 Favorable / strongly Favorable / somewhat GEORGE W. BUSH NAME ID Unfavorable / somewhat Unfavorable / strongly No opinion Never heard 30% 15% 10% 43% 1% 0% % 8% 14% 47% 2% 81 30% 15% 10% 43% 1% 0% 1020 R5 GEORGE W. BUSH NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 45% 53% 1% 0% % 62% 2% 81 45% 53% 1% 0% 1020 Page 2

3 R6 GOP IN CONGRESS NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 44% 47% 8% 1% % 40% 13% 81 44% 47% 8% 1% 1020 R7 DEM IN CONGRESS NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 46% 45% 8% 1% % 29% 12% 4% 81 46% 45% 8% 1% 1020 R8 JOHN BOEHNER NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 6% 6% 12% 76% % 5% 9% 83% 81 6% 6% 12% 76% 1020 Q9 Favorable / strongly Favorable / somewhat JOHN MCCAIN NAME ID Unfavorable / somewhat Unfavorable / strongly No opinion Never heard 27% 38% 12% 5% 11% 7% % 24% 6% 3% 26% 18% 81 27% 38% 12% 5% 11% 7% 1020 R9 JOHN MCCAIN NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 65% 18% 11% 7% % 9% 26% 18% 81 65% 18% 11% 7% 1020 Page 3

4 Q10 Favorable / strongly Favorable / somewhat HILLARY CLINTON NAME ID Unfavorable / somewhat Unfavorable / strongly No opinion Never heard 27% 19% 11% 39% 4% 0% % 23% 12% 25% 3% 81 27% 19% 11% 39% 4% 0% 1020 R10 HILLARY CLINTON NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 46% 51% 4% 0% % 36% 3% 81 46% 51% 4% 0% 1020 R11 DICK CHENEY NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 42% 51% 6% 1% % 52% 9% 1% 81 42% 51% 6% 1% 1020 R12 HOWARD DEAN NAME ID/C Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard 31% 45% 12% 12% % 19% 23% 32% 81 31% 45% 12% 12% 1020 R13 GEORGE W. BUSH JOB APPROVAL/C Approve Unsure Disapprove 46% 3% 52% % 1% 59% 81 46% 3% 52% 1020 Page 4

5 R14 GEORGE W. BUSH PERSONAL APPROVAL/C Approve Unsure Disapprove 60% 7% 33% % 5% 34% 81 60% 7% 33% 1020 DROP Consistent approve BUSH APPROVAL CONSISTENCY Approve job / drop-f personal Approve personal / drop-f job Consistent disapprove Other 43% 2% 17% 31% 7% % 1% 22% 34% 4% 81 43% 2% 17% 31% 7% 1020 R15 CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL/C Approve Unsure Disapprove 37% 7% 56% % 6% 46% 81 37% 7% 56% 1020 R16 YOUR MOC JOB APPROVAL/C Approve Unsure Disapprove 63% 13% 25% % 15% 24% 81 63% 13% 25% 1020 DROPCNG Consistent approve CONGRESS APPROVAL CONSISTENCY Approve / disapprove their MOC Disapprove / approve their MOC Consistent disapprove Other 29% 4% 29% 19% 18% % 6% 18% 18% 20% 81 29% 4% 29% 19% 18% 1020 Page 5

6 Q17A BETTER JOB / DEALING WITH IRAQ 48% 45% 3% 5% % 50% 1% 3% 43 48% 45% 3% 5% 516 Q17B BETTER JOB / DEALING WITH IRAQ 45% 41% 6% 8% % 31% 12% 14% 39 45% 41% 6% 8% 504 Q18A BETTER JOB / KEEPING AMERICA PROSPEROUS 41% 49% 3% 6% % 60% 5% 43 41% 49% 3% 6% 516 Q18B BETTER JOB / KEEPING AMERICA PROSPEROUS 42% 46% 6% 6% % 63% 3% 11% 39 42% 46% 6% 6% 504 Q19A BETTER JOB / IMPROVING EDUCATION 38% 51% 6% 5% % 71% 1% 43 38% 51% 6% 5% 516 Page 6

7 Q19B BETTER JOB / IMPROVING EDUCATION 36% 52% 6% 7% % 64% 6% 9% 39 36% 52% 6% 7% 504 Q20A BETTER JOB / HOLDING DOWN FEDERAL SPENDING 33% 51% 12% 4% % 51% 8% 3% 43 33% 51% 12% 4% 516 Q20B BETTER JOB / HOLDING DOWN FEDERAL SPENDING 36% 48% 10% 6% % 51% 2% 10% 39 36% 48% 10% 6% 504 Q21A BETTER JOB / HOLDING THE LINE ON TAXES 46% 44% 5% 6% % 56% 7% 43 46% 44% 5% 6% 516 Q21B BETTER JOB / HOLDING THE LINE ON TAXES 52% 36% 5% 7% % 43% 5% 6% 39 52% 36% 5% 7% 504 Page 7

8 Q22A BETTER JOB / STRENGTHENING SOCIAL SECURITY 34% 55% 6% 5% % 59% 3% 5% 43 34% 55% 6% 5% 516 Q22B BETTER JOB / STRENGTHENING SOCIAL SECURITY 30% 57% 6% 7% % 56% 6% 9% 39 30% 57% 6% 7% 504 Q23A BETTER JOB / IMPROVING THE ECONOMY 39% 51% 5% 5% % 62% 3% 8% 43 39% 51% 5% 5% 516 Q23B BETTER JOB / IMPROVING THE ECONOMY 38% 50% 7% 5% % 56% 5% 8% 39 38% 50% 7% 5% 504 Q24A BETTER JOB / SAFEGUARDING AMERICAN FROM TERRORIST THREAT None Unsure 54% 37% 4% 4% % 36% 8% 1% 43 54% 37% 4% 4% 516 Page 8

9 Q24B BETTER JOB / SAFEGUARDING AMERICA FROM A TERRORIST THREAT None Unsure 52% 35% 5% 8% % 37% 7% 10% 39 52% 35% 5% 8% 504 Q25A BETTER JOB / SHARES YOUR VALUES 43% 48% 5% 4% % 55% 5% 1% 43 43% 48% 5% 4% 516 Q25B BETTER JOB / SHARES YOUR VALUES 44% 42% 8% 5% % 40% 15% 12% 39 44% 42% 8% 5% 504 Q26A BETTER JOB / FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS 33% 58% 6% 3% % 64% 5% 4% 43 33% 58% 6% 3% 516 Q26B BETTER JOB / FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS 35% 55% 7% 2% % 63% 6% 7% 39 35% 55% 7% 2% 504 Page 9

10 Q27A BETTER JOB / SETTING THE RIGHT PRIORITIES 42% 49% 4% 5% % 51% 5% 5% 43 42% 49% 4% 5% 516 Q27B BETTER JOB / SETTING THE RIGHT PRIORITIES 40% 46% 9% 4% % 46% 13% 10% 39 40% 46% 9% 4% 504 Q28A BETTER JOB / CRACKING DOWN ON CORRUPTION IN DC None Unsure 32% 45% 17% 7% % 47% 11% 4% 43 32% 45% 17% 7% 516 Q28B BETTER JOB / CRACKING DOWN ON CORRUPTION IN DC None Unsure 30% 40% 22% 8% % 32% 33% 14% 39 30% 40% 22% 8% 504 Q29A BETTER JOB / BRING ABOUT CHANGE 33% 51% 10% 6% % 55% 3% 8% 43 33% 51% 10% 6% 516 Page 10

11 Q29B BETTER JOB / BRINGING ABOUT CHANGE 31% 53% 9% 7% % 51% 6% 9% 39 31% 53% 9% 7% 504 Q30A BETTER JOB / DEALING WITH HEALTHCARE 31% 56% 10% 4% % 67% 5% 43 31% 56% 10% 4% 516 Q30B BETTER JOB / DEALING WITH HEALTHCARE 28% 58% 9% 6% % 69% 7% 6% 39 28% 58% 9% 6% 504 Q31A BETTER JOB / MAKING PRESCRIPTION DRUGS AFFORDABLE None Unsure 29% 56% 9% 6% % 67% 9% 43 29% 56% 9% 6% 516 Q31B BETTER JOB / MAKING PRESCRIPTION DRUGS AFFORDABLE None Unsure 25% 59% 9% 6% % 66% 6% 9% 39 25% 59% 9% 6% 504 Page 11

12 Q32A BETTER JOB / CHANGING THE TONE IN WASHINGTON None Unsure 31% 50% 11% 8% % 50% 9% 8% 43 31% 50% 11% 8% 516 Q32B BETTER JOB / CHANGING THE TONE IN WASHINGTON None Unsure 29% 49% 14% 8% % 44% 17% 10% 39 29% 49% 14% 8% 504 Q33 MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT PROBLEMS IN CONGRESS Both equally Neither Unsure Republican Party Democratic Party 20% 11% 64% 1% 5% % 4% 63% 1% 5% 81 20% 11% 64% 1% 5% 1020 R34 END EARMARKS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 59% 8% 32% % 8% 38% 81 59% 8% 32% 1020 R35 BAN FOREIGN TRAVEL FOR MEMBERS EXCEPT FOR OFFICIAL BUSINESS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 67% 4% 29% % 3% 36% 81 67% 4% 29% 1020 Page 12

13 R36 INCREASE WAIT TIME FOR RETIRED MEMBERS TO LOBBY/C Favor Unsure Oppose 75% 6% 19% % 4% 29% 81 75% 6% 19% 1020 R37 BAN GIFTS TO MEMBERS FROM LOBBYISTS OR ORGANIZATIONS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 79% 3% 18% % 4% 29% 81 79% 3% 18% 1020 R38 DISCLOSURE OF LOBBYIST CLIENTS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 87% 3% 10% % 4% 17% 81 87% 3% 10% 1020 R39 BAN FORMER MEMBERS FROM LOBBYING ON FLOOR OR IN GYM/C Favor Unsure Oppose 67% 7% 26% % 10% 37% 81 67% 7% 26% 1020 R40 REQUIRE MEMBERS DISCLOSE CONTACT OR CONTRIBS FROM LOBBYISTS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 86% 3% 11% % 1% 16% 81 86% 3% 11% 1020 Page 13

14 R41 CHANGE CONTRIB LIMITS FOR PACS/C Favor Unsure Oppose 73% 7% 20% % 4% 34% 81 73% 7% 20% 1020 R42 REQUIRE PAY INCREASE AS SINGLE BILL/C Favor Unsure Oppose 76% 5% 19% % 7% 15% 81 76% 5% 19% 1020 Q43 Reforms alone will work VIEW ON ETHICAL SCANDALS Huge influx new members needed Both equally Neither Unsure 54% 36% 3% 3% 4% % 41% 4% 1% 4% 81 54% 36% 3% 3% 4% 1020 R44 MORE IMPORTANT QUALITY IN MOC / VALUES VS. SOLUTIONS/C Strength values and convictions Unsure Willingness to find practical, workable solutions 38% 4% 58% % 3% 64% 81 38% 4% 58% 1020 R45 LAWMAKERS PUT YOU FIRST OR PARTISAN POLITICS FIRST/C Put me first Unsure Put partisan politics first 4% 4% 92% % 6% 85% 81 4% 4% 92% 1020 Page 14

15 RAGE RESPONDENT'S AGE/C or over Unsure / refused 11% 15% 45% 27% 2% % 81 11% 15% 45% 27% 2% 1020 REDUC Less than high school RESPONDENT'S EDUCATION/C High school graduate Some college College graduate 5% 25% 26% 45% % 26% 22% 44% 81 5% 25% 26% 45% 1020 RIDEOL RESPONDENT'S IDEOLOGY/C Conservative Moderate Liberal 59% 5% 36% % 2% 36% 81 59% 5% 36% 1020 RPARTYID PARTY IDENTIFICATION/C Republican Independent Democrat 42% 15% 42% % 18% 44% 81 42% 15% 42% 1020 RPARTY USUAL VOTE BEHAVIOR/C Republican Ticket splitter Democrat 48% 5% 47% % 4% 57% 81 48% 5% 47% 1020 RD PRESIDENTIAL VOTE/C Kerry Nader Other 49% 43% 2% 5% % 42% 6% 11% 81 49% 43% 2% 5% 1020 Page 15

16 RUNION MEMBER OF LABOR UNION/C Union household Non-union household 15% 85% % 86% 81 15% 85% 1020 RD8 ASSOCIATION MEMBER IN HH/C Association household Non-associat ion household 22% 78% % 84% 81 22% 78% 1020 RMARITAL MARITAL STATUS/C Single Married No longer married 12% 64% 24% % 43% 3% 81 12% 64% 24% 1020 RCHILD HAVE CHILDREN LIVING AT HOME/C Yes No 29% 71% % 52% 81 29% 71% 1020 RDENOM RESPONDENT'S RELIGION/C Catholic Protestant Baptist Fundamental ist / Pentecostal Other No affiliation 17% 23% 15% 19% 10% 16% % 13% 21% 18% 12% 21% 81 17% 23% 15% 19% 10% 16% 1020 Page 16

17 RDENOMF R HOW OFTEN DO YOU ATTEND CHURCH/C Infrequently Never At least once a week At least once a month 53% 23% 21% 3% % 33% 24% 62 53% 23% 21% 3% 828 CHURCH2 Active Catholic Active Protestant RELIGIOUS FOCUS Active Baptist Active Fundamental ist / Pentecostal Active Other Non-active 10% 11% 8% 11% 4% 57% % 6% 9% 8% 5% 67% 81 10% 11% 8% 11% 4% 57% 1020 BORN BORN-AGAIN / EVANGELICAL Refused Born-again / evangelical Not born-again 48% 45% 6% % 36% 5% 61 48% 45% 6% 815 IDEOVAN White conservative Christians IDEOLOGY / EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANS Non-white conservative Christians White non-conserv ative Christians Non-white non-conserv ative Christians 56% 19% 13% 12% % 29% 10% 14% 36 56% 19% 13% 12% 394 RRACE White Black / African American RESPONDENT'S RACE/C Hispanic / Latino Other 77% 11% 8% 4% % 23% 9% 4% 81 77% 11% 8% 4% 1020 Page 17

18 RSEXEMP Male / employed RESPONDENT'S SEX / EMPLOYMENT/C Male / not employed Female / employed Female / not employed 31% 17% 24% 28% % 9% 28% 22% 81 31% 17% 24% 28% 1020 GENDER GENDER Male Female 48% 52% % 49% 81 48% 52% 1020 ST2004 STATES BY 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS won w/55% or more Kerry won w/55% or more Contested states 31% 16% 53% % 15% 44% 81 31% 16% 53% 1020 BATTLEC D CDs won by with 55%+ BATTLEGROUND BY CD Contested CDs CDs won by Kerry with 55%+ 54% 24% 22% % 24% 12% 81 54% 24% 22% 1020 SENCNTR L U.S. SENATE REPRESENTATION 2 GOP U.S. Senators Mixed U.S. Senate delegation 2 DEM U.S. Senators 41% 19% 40% % 11% 36% 81 41% 19% 40% 1018 Page 18

19 TURNOUT Most likely 50% TURNOUT OF MOST LIKELY VOTERS Most likely 60% Most likely 70% Most likely 80% 100% sample 50% 60% 70% 80% 100% % 9% 15% 30% 100% 81 50% 60% 70% 80% 100% 1020 Page 19