EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01 A.M., TUESDAY, OCTOBER

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01 A.M., TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2014 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Professor David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), , ext. 285 (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu until 11pm. Questions and tables are available during embargo Follow the on and Facebook at SPORTS, ONLINE BETTING: NEW JERSEYANS AREN T ALL IN Almost two-thirds say no dice to alcohol on the boardwalk NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. Although Gov. Chris Christie has signed legislation to allow sports betting at racetracks and casinos to try to help revitalize a flagging Atlantic City, many New Jersey residents are not sure the idea is a good bet for the resort town. While 44 percent of New Jerseyans sees sports betting as a plus for Atlantic City, 48 percent is less positive about its value: 31 percent says it will make no difference and 17 percent views sports betting as bad for the struggling resort city, according to the latest. New Jerseyans are even more negative when it comes to online gambling. More than half (55 percent) thinks online gambling is bad for Atlantic City, compared with just 5 percent saying it is a good thing. Twenty-three percent says it makes no difference, and 17 percent is not sure. Residents split their hands when it comes to permitting casinos in other parts of New Jersey, something state legislators have been discussing. Nearly half of Garden Staters agree with the idea, but 43 percent says casinos should just be limited to Atlantic City. Other residents are mostly unsure, but 3 percent offers that gambling should not be legal anywhere in the state. Support is up 12 points from a similar question asked in 1999, when 35 percent favored a statewide casino industry. Even as support has climbed for statewide expansion, New Jerseyans still question the benefits of gambling. In 1999, 72 percent saw gambling as good for the state, but today only 33 percent agrees. Thirteen percent says it has been bad and 46 percent says it has made no difference. Sixty-two percent also does not want to gamble on making Atlantic City more like Las Vegas by allowing alcoholic drinks to be carried and consumed outside of casinos. Just over a third say they would support such a measure, which some have suggested would help. In the face of Atlantic City s troubles, most New Jerseyans no longer think gambling is particularly good for the state, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers. Nearly four decades after the first casino opened, 1

2 residents are split on whether gambling should expand and clearly don t believe some current plans will be of much help to Atlantic City itself. Results are from a statewide poll of 842 residents contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. An inside look at support for sports betting The poll shows a clear partisan split in belief about the benefits of sports betting for Atlantic City. Half of Republicans and independents says it will be a good thing, while about a quarter of both groups thinks it will make no difference. But among Democrats, 40 percent thinks sports betting will make no difference to Atlantics City, compared to the 35 percent who says sports betting will help. About one in six of all partisan groups see sports betting as bad for the resort city. Sports betting has become somewhat of a partisan issue in the months of back and forth between the governor, the Legislature, and the courts, said Redlawsk. Given Christie s most recent championing of the idea, the split between Republicans and Democrats is not too surprising, since Democrats are no longer Christie fans. Where New Jerseyans live affects levels of support. Fifty-six percent of residents of shore counties says sports betting will be good for Atlantic City; but just 40 percent of other residents agrees. Optimism towards sports betting also drops among seniors compared to younger respondents and those in lower income brackets compared to wealthier New Jerseyans. The more frequently Atlantic City visitors gamble, the more they perceive sports betting as valuable: 62 percent who gamble on most sees the value in sports betting, 54 percent of those who gamble on some agrees. Only 41 percent of non-gamblers in Atlantic City feels the same. Online gambling seen as bad for Atlantic City Despite the barrage of commercials touting new online gambling options, there is wide disbelief that online gambling helps Atlantic City, as supporters have argued. Even among those who gamble during most of their resort, only 8 percent says online gambling has been good for the city. Fiftynine percent of these frequent gamblers thinks it has been bad, and 20 percent says it makes no difference. Unlike sports betting, there is partisan agreement that online gambling is not good for Atlantic City. Lower income residents are less likely than wealthier ones to think online gambling is bad for Atlantic City, 48 percent to 63 percent for those at the top of the income scale. Expanding casinos elsewhere Proposals to expand casino gambling beyond Atlantic City are not new, but New Jerseyans are much more supportive than they were in 1999, when 35 percent agreed while 54 percent wanted casinos 2

3 limited to the resort. Republicans, at 54 percent, and independents at 50 percent, are both more likely than Democrats (39 percent) to support the idea of casino expansion. More than six in 10 millennials favors the idea, but only 35 percent of seniors over 65 years old agree. A clear majority (57 percent) of residents in households earning below $50,000 a year likes expansion. Fifty-one percent of both suburban and urban residents those perhaps most likely to benefit from the proposal say yes to additional casinos in the state compared to about 43 percent of residents elsewhere. Keep the boardwalks dry State Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr. recently suggested allowing alcoholic beverages to be carried outside Atlantic City casinos, but New Jersey residents nix this idea almost 2 to 1. In true partisan fashion, Republicans (40 percent) are more likely to support the proposal than are Democrats (30 percent); 37 percent of independents agrees. Men are stronger supporters, 42 percent to 30 percent, and millennials, at 48 percent, are the top supporters by age. Visitors to Atlantic City in the past year are stronger proponents of alcohol on the boardwalk than non-visitors, 39 percent to 32 percent. Among those planning to visit in the next year, 44 percent favors allowing alcohol outside. There is no difference between visitors who gamble and those who do not. Support for casino gambling slips Despite New Jerseyans increased support for casino expansion beyond Atlantic City since the 1999 poll, they are less positive about the benefits of gambling. The share saying gambling is good for the state has plummeted by 39 points to 33 percent. The key difference: almost half (46 percent) thinks gambling has made no difference to New Jersey, compared to 7 percent in Republicans (40 percent) are more likely to say casino gambling has been good for the state compared to independents (33 percent) and Democrats (31 percent). Men are six points more likely to say the same than women. Only 21 percent of millennials agree, compared to 33 percent to 41 percent of other age groups. Those in the lowest income bracket (at 24 percent) are 11 to 20 points less likely than those with higher household incomes to say casino gambling is good for New Jersey. ally, casino gambling receives its greatest support from those closest to Atlantic City: 48 percent of shore residents. More than half of frequent visitors who gamble agree, compared to 39 percent of occasional gamblers and just 20 percent visitors who do not gamble at all. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of October 21, 2014 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Adults unless otherwise indicated; all percentages are of weighted results. [RELATED ATLANTIC CITY QUESTIONS BEING HELD FOR LATER RELEASE PRECEDED THIS SECTION] Q. Do you think casino gambling should be permitted in other parts of New Jersey, or should it be limited to just Atlantic City? Gambling Frequency Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Permitted in other parts of the state 47% 35% 49% 50% 43% 48% 46% 43% 47% 59% Limited to AC 43% 54% 45% 46% 49% 45% 42% 51% 40% 31% Not permitted anywhere (vol) 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2% 4% 3% 5% 0% Don't know 7% 8% 4% 3% 8% 4% 9% 4% 8% 10% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Male Female White Nonwhite Should be permitted 39% 50% 54% 48% 45% 47% 48% 61% 51% 39% 35% Limited 52% 39% 37% 40% 46% 44% 41% 33% 43% 50% 47% Not anywhere (vol) 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% 5% 5% Don't know 7% 8% 4% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 4% 7% 13% Unwgt N= <50K 50-<100K 100-<150K 150K+ Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Should be permitted 57% 42% 49% 48% 51% 51% 43% 43% 42% Limited 33% 50% 47% 45% 41% 41% 45% 46% 46% Not anywhere (vol) 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 5% 4% Don't know 5% 6% 3% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 8% Unwgt N= Q. Overall, do you think casino gambling has been good or bad for the state as a whole, or has it made no difference? Gambling Frequency Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Good 33% 72% 53% 39% 20% 38% 29% 41% 28% 30% Bad 13% 12% 6% 11% 13% 12% 13% 10% 16% 4% Both/no difference 46% 7% 34% 46% 58% 45% 48% 44% 47% 49% Don't know 8% 9% 6% 4% 9% 6% 10% 5% 9% 16% Unwgt N=

5 Good 31% 33% 40% 36% 30% 41% 21% 21% 34% 41% 33% Bad 14% 12% 11% 12% 14% 11% 14% 13% 7% 15% 17% Both/no difference 48% 46% 40% 46% 47% 41% 54% 54% 50% 40% 40% Don't know 7% 10% 9% 6% 10% 7% 10% 12% 9% 4% 10% Unwgt N= Q. What about the introduction of online gambling in New Jersey? Do you think online gambling has been good or bad for Atlantic City specifically, or has it made no difference? Gambling Frequency Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Good 5% 8% 5% 2% 6% 3% 6% 4% 1% Bad 55% 59% 61% 59% 57% 54% 59% 56% 44% Both/no difference 23% 20% 24% 22% 24% 22% 24% 22% 26% Don't know 17% 13% 10% 17% 13% 20% 11% 18% 29% Unwgt N= Good 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 6% 3% 5% 5% Bad 54% 56% 56% 55% 56% 55% 56% 53% 54% 60% 54% Both/no difference 29% 20% 18% 27% 19% 22% 25% 24% 28% 19% 20% Don't know 14% 18% 23% 14% 20% 18% 15% 17% 15% 16% 21% Unwgt N= Good 24% 35% 44% 39% 22% 32% 27% 34% 48% Bad 13% 12% 4% 15% 10% 13% 13% 13% 12% Both/no difference 52% 46% 46% 42% 50% 49% 49% 49% 32% Don't know 11% 7% 6% 4% 19% 6% 12% 4% 8% Unwgt N= Good 7% 4% 2% 1% 5% 5% 3% 6% 3% Bad 48% 54% 61% 63% 47% 63% 55% 44% 57% Both/no difference 28% 23% 22% 22% 30% 15% 24% 36% 23% Don't know 17% 19% 15% 15% 18% 17% 18% 15% 16% Unwgt N=

6 [ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO HAVE GAMBLED IN ATLANTIC CITY] Q. Have you tried online gambling in New Jersey? Gambling Freq Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Yes No Yes No Yes 7% 8% 7% 9% 5% 11% 2% No 93% 92% 93% 91% 95% 89% 98% Unwgt N= Yes 8% 7% 4% 8% 6% 4% 13% - 3% 4% 3% No 92% 93% 96% 92% 94% 96% 87% - 97% 96% 97% Unwgt N= * ** Yes 6% 9% % - - 5% No 94% 91% % % Unwgt N= ** ** ** 140 ** ** 79* ** N too small to report * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution Q. There is talk about allowing betting on sporting events in Atlantic City casinos and at racetracks statewide. Do you think sports betting would be good or bad for Atlantic City, or would it make no difference? Gambling Frequency Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Good 44% 62% 54% 41% 54% 37% 56% 36% 45% Bad 17% 9% 9% 18% 10% 22% 9% 24% 11% No difference/both 31% 23% 32% 37% 30% 31% 30% 31% 30% Don't know 8% 5% 5% 4% 6% 10% 6% 9% 15% Unwgt N= Good 35% 51% 50% 48% 41% 50% 38% 47% 48% 46% 32% Bad 15% 17% 17% 14% 19% 17% 16% 12% 9% 23% 26% No difference/both 40% 24% 28% 30% 31% 26% 37% 35% 34% 24% 30% Don't know 11% 8% 5% 8% 9% 8% 9% 6% 9% 8% 11% Unwgt N=

7 Q. have suggested that allowing Atlantic City to be more like Las Vegas, for example by allowing open alcoholic drinks to be carried outside between casinos and on the boardwalk. Do you support or oppose allowing alcoholic drinks to be carried and consumed outside? Gambling Frequency Planning to Visit AC in Next 12 Months Support 35% 41% 39% 42% 39% 32% 44% 30% 32% Oppose 62% 58% 58% 57% 58% 64% 54% 66% 65% Don't know 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% Unwgt N= Support 30% 37% 40% 42% 30% 34% 38% 48% 41% 31% 16% Oppose 67% 59% 57% 55% 68% 63% 59% 50% 56% 66% 80% Don't know 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% Unwgt N= Good 38% 44% 59% 49% 41% 42% 43% 43% 56% Bad 18% 15% 11% 18% 19% 18% 21% 13% 12% No difference/both 38% 31% 22% 25% 33% 30% 30% 39% 22% Don't know 6% 10% 7% 7% 7% 11% 6% 6% 10% Unwgt N= Support 36% 36% 45% 38% 35% 32% 49% 34% 32% Oppose 62% 61% 53% 57% 60% 65% 51% 64% 63% Don't know 2% 3% 2% 5% 5% 3% 1% 1% 5% Unwgt N= September 29 October 5, 2014 The was conducted by telephone using live callers September 29 October 5, 2014 with a scientifically selected random sample of 842 New Jersey adults. This telephone poll included 618 landline and 224 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 12% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 15% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 66% Landline Only: 7% 7

8 Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 842 adults is +/-3.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.69, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.4 percentage points for the adult sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.6 and 54.4 percent (50 +/-4.4) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 842 New Jersey Adults 34% Democrat 49% Male 22% % White 51% Independent 51% Female 33% % Black 17% Republican 27% % Hispanic 18% % Asian/Other/Multi 8