Among the main findings are: OCTOBER 6, CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or RELEASE: 45-3

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1 - --Of New Jersey, much of the campaign talk has focused on two other political While Jim Floric and Tom Kean are the candidates for Governor in THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION--REAGAN AND BYRNE: EVALUATIONS AND IMPACT WOOD LAWN-NEILSON CAMPUS.NLW URIJNSWIC.K.NtW JRsE.Y 069[Ue201/R THE EAGLETON NSTITUTE OF POLITICS RELEASE: 45- OFNEWJERSEY JANICE BALLOU CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or Audio is available on 10/6/81, 1:00 P.M. from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone) Attention Radio Stations: more Brendan Byrne arena in the Meadowlands renamed. --Of those expressing an opinion, about three quarters feel that --About 7 in lo registered voters said that a Reagan or Byrne those offering an opinion to the question, 60 percent want the feels he is doing an excellent or good job running the state. Byrne s job rating has declined to where just less than l in-4 between Nay and September. The percentage of Democrats saying government should fund programs cut by the federal government. social programs, but are split as to whether state and local New Jerseyans feel that Reagan has gone too far in cutting back --Reagan s job rating among the general public dropped 16 points during this time. he was doing an excellent or good job dropped 27 points Florio would bring new ideas and people to Trenton, rather than for Governor. continuing in the fashion of Governor Byrne. enoorsernent would have no effect on how they planned to vote Among the main findings are: 1004 New Jerseyans, 840 of whom reported being registered to vote. The Rutgers survey was conducted between September 15 and 27 with of the Byrne administration. most do not, feel ihat a Florio government would simply be a continuation mixed reviews. While Byrne is still unpopular among state residents, a good deal of Democratic support, and his economic program received While still popular among New Jersey Republicans, Reagan has lost helped much by their association with Reagan or Byrne. Eagleton Poll released today indicates that neither candidate will be figures- President Ronald Reagan and Governor Brendan Byrne. But an OCTOBER 6, 1981 FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY

2 EP45 Page 2 Overall, 72 percent of registered voters saying they planned to vote in the election said a Reagan endorsement of Tom Kean would make no difference to them. Twelve percent said it would make them more C likely to vote for Kean and 12 percent less likely. Six percent of undecided voters said they would be favorably influenced by a Reagan endorsement and 8 percent would be unfavorably influenced, with the rest saying it would make no difference or not voicing an opinion. The same figure--72 percent- said a Byrne endorsement of Jim Floric would make no difference to them. Eightn percent said it would make them less likely, to vote for the Camden Democrat while 6 percent said Byrne s endorsement would make them more likely to support Florio. Nine percent of undecided voters said they would be less inclined to. support Fiotio, and percent more inclined to do so with the active endorsement of Byrne. Poll officials said that the unpopularity of the Governor could be seen in his low job rating and in the support for renaming the Meadow lands arena. Overall, 2 percent rated Byrne s performance in office positively, down slightly from 26 percent at the beginning of the year and from percent a year ago in September. Forty percent felt Byrne was doing an only fair job in the current survey, while fully one New Jerseyan in three said Byrne was doing a poor job of running the state. Statewide, 45 percent said they would like to see the Brendan Byrne arena in the Meadowlands renamed. Twenty-nine percent felt that the name should be kept, while the remaining 25 percent said that they didn t know or didn t care. North Jersey residents were the strongest advocates of a name change--by a margin of 52 to 25 percent, with 2 percent not offering an opinion. Central Jersey residents also thought ç

3 EP4Z Page the name should be changed, by a 46 to 29 percent spread. Only in South Jersey was there support for keeping the arena name -by a margin df 9 to 0 percent. Despite the fact that both are Democrats, most thought that if elected Governor, Florio would steer a different course than Byrne. Fifty five percent of registered voters felt that Florio would bring new ideas and people to Trenton, while 21 percent said New Jersey would see the same people and policies of the Byrne administration. Nine per cent thought Florio would have a mix of old and new faces, and 15 percent offered no opinion. Among undecided voters, 46 percent thought a Florio administration would differ from Byrne s; 16 percent thought there would not be much difference between the two. About half --49 percent -of all New Jerseyans evaluated President C percent said he was doing an only fair job and.17 percent said he was doing a poor job. In May of this year, 65 percent gave him a favorable Reagan s job performance favorably as excellent or good. Twenty nine rating. The percentage giving Reagan positive marks dropped 9 points among Republicans to 81 percent, 11 point among Independents to 50 per cent and 27 points among Democrats from May to the September reading of 25 percent. Three-quarters of Kean supporters, one third of Florio supporters and just under half of the undecided voters rated the President favorably. Slightly less than half of those interviewed felt that the Reagan economic plan had gone too far in cutting back social programs, while 1 percent said that the plan did not go far enough. Thirty-one percent described the reductions as just right. Poll Director Cliff Zukin noted that much of the interviewing was completed before Reagan announced the second round of budget cuts and made his television appeal for public support.

4 r S. EP45 Page 4 There were clear party differences, and differences between Kean and Floric supporters on the question of reducing social programs. Two in-three Democrats compared to l-in-5 Republicans described the cuts as too much, as did 45 percent of Independents. Sixty five percent of Florio voters said the cuts went too far, 21 percent said they were at the right level and 9 percent said they did not go far enough. Nineteen percent of Kean supporters said the cuts in social programs were too deep, 17 percent said they were not deep enough, and 54 percent said they were about right. Half of the undecided voters said the cuts were too much, 10 percent too little, and 28 percent just right. The remainder expressed no opinion. Eagleton also asked the statewide sample if the federal cuts in social progirams should be made up by state and local government. Opinion was evenly divided, with 41 percent saying they should be made up and 42 percent saying they should not, Only half of those who wanted social ( programs restored from state and local funds said they would be willing to see a slight increase in their New Jersey taxes to make up the difference. Interestingly, while more Florio than Kean supporters felt that too much had been cut from social programs, Kean supporters were slightly more willing to see New Jersey funds used to support these programs. Forty six percent of Kean supporters said that state and local revenues should be used to make up for the loss of federal funds while 8 percent said they should not. Among Florio supporters, 42 percent favored using New Jersey money to.replace federal funds while 46 percent did not. Undecided voters were evenly divided on the issue. -0- Copyright, The Eagieton Institute, 1981.

5 BACKGROUND MEMO -RELEASE 45-, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 1981 THE EAGIEION INsTITUTE 01 EDt TICS WOOD LAWN.NEILSON CAPrJ.Nt W BRUNSWICK.NEW Jr ASEY OS9OI.20L/tVH 2710 Florio % (2) Repub].icans % (119) % (29) Independents % (227) Democrats % (140) Part Total reaistered etcellent good fair poor know total (n) Total sample % (50) MAY, 1981 only don t Republicans % (241) Independents % (451) ZtTanxocrats Par Undecided % (144) % (02) (89) Total sample % (1004) President excellent, good, only fair or poor? In general, how would you rate the job Ronald Reagan is doing as figures referred to in this release follow: of error inherent in any public opinion study. The questions and Sampling error does not take into account the other possible sources sample size is ±5 points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. were registered to vote. The sampling error associated with this interviewed by telephone. This included 840 persons who said they when a random sample of 1,007 New Jersoyans, 18 years and older, was The latest Eagleton Poll was conducted between September 15 and 27, OF NEW JERSEY a RUTGERS THE STATE IJNWERSITY

6 Total sample strong not strong no strong strong SUPPORTER know total O CRITIC don t yourself as a supporter or critic of this plan? tax cut over the next three years. On the whole, would you describe plan which calls for large cuts in government programs and a 0 percent As you probably know, Conqress has just passed Ronald Reagan s economic C Republicans % (240) Independents % (451) Undecided % (142) Democrats % (29) Total sample Total registered % (89 4 Florio % (22) --Kean % (00) % (100) ftc far just right not enough don t know total (n) closest to your own? say they don t go far enough. How about you - which of those views comes programs; others say the proposed cuts are just right, and still others Some people say that the plan goes too far in cutting back social Republicans % (241) t4 Undecided % (144) Democrats % (29) i(ean % (02) Total registered % (840) % (1004) Independents % (452) EP45 Florio % (2) 1 ( (

7 EP45 C on - be The cuts in the federal budget will reduce the amount of money spent social programs. Do you think that these cuts should, or should not made up by state and local government? don t should* should not depends know total (n) Total saiuple % (1004) Total registered % (840) vote Intention Kean % (01) Florio % (2) undecided % (142) Democrats % (29) Independents % (452) Republicans % (241) *Those saying that federal budget cuts should be made up by state and local government were asked, Would you be willing to see a slight increase in your New Jersey taxes to make up the difference? - yes no depends don t know total (n) % (41) Overall, how good a job do you think the Governor of New Jersey Brendan Byrne, is doing - excellent, good, only fair or poor? only don t excellent fair pcor know total (n) Total sample % (1004) Total registered % (840) Kean % (02) Florio % (2) Undecided % (144) 4 Democrats % (.29) Independents % (452) Republicans % (241) TOTAL SAMPLE Jan. Feb., % (1002) Sept., % (601)

8 EP45 4 There has been a good deal of discussion lately about whether the new Erendan Byrne sports. arena in the Meadowlands should be renamed. Do you think the name should be kept or changed? 1 Total sample 2 don t kept chan2a know/care total izii % (1004) Total regi:stered % (840) IKeari % (01) --Florio % (2) Undecided % (142) 4 Democrats % (29) Independents % (452) Republicans % (241) Req ion 5 north % (552) central % (206) south % (246) Do you think you would be more or less inclined to support Tom Kean if he was endorsed by Ronald Reagan, or wouldn t this make any difference? Total registered no don t more less difference know total (n) % (78) Kean % (01) Florio % (2) Undecided % (142) 6 Democrats % (28) Independents % (4) Republicans % (204) (

9 Florio % (2) Kean % (01) Total registered % (78) more less difference know total (n) k. endorsed by Brendan Byrne, or wouldn t this make any difference? r Would you be more or less inclined to support Jim Florio if he was no don t Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Union and Warren); central (Hunterdon, would definitely or probably vote in the election for Governor. 6Partisan breakdowns based on sub-sample of those registered saying they Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean and Salem). Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth and Somerset); south (Atlantic, Burlingtion, 5me counties included in each group are as follows: north (Bergen, Essex, 4partisan breakdowns of total random sample. probably vote in the election for Governor. Based on sub-sample of those registered saying they would definitely or 2sased on sub sample of 840 persons saying they were registered to vote. Based on total random sample of 1,004 New Jerseyans. Republicans % (202) Independents % (2) Undecided % (142) Democrats % (25) 6 Kean % (01) same new both know total (n) Ploric (2) bring new people and new ideas to Trenton? Total registered % (767) the same people and policies of the Byrne administration, or would he If Democrat Jim Florio was elected Governor, do you think we would see don t Republicans % (204) Independents % (4) 6 Undecided % (142) Democrats % (28) EP4S 5

10 ( (