ItlJl ter.s. 011w %Iar-ICbgCr/EAGLETON POLL

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1 011w %Iar-ICbgCr/EAGLETON POLL FOR RELEASt SUNDAY, JULY 22, 1990 BOB CARTER OR RELEASE: SL/EP 29-2 (EP 79-2) JANICE BALLOU RELEASE INFORMATION coen-aa: A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Sundays Star-Ledger. Other newspapers may also use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, July 21, We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll. NEW.JERSEYANS DISAPPROVE OF NEW TAXES; MOST THINK SPENDING CUTS COULD HAVE BEEN GREATER AND THAT TAX PACKAGE WILL HURT MIDDLE CLASS By very large margins, a majority of New Jerseyans disapprove of most parts of the package of new taxes recently passed by the State Legislature and signed into law by Governor Florio. Of all the various increases in state taxes recently enacted, the only one which is supported by a majority of residents is the higher tax on alcohol, cigarettes and tobacco, according to the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll. In addition, an overwhelming majority of 7-in-lU New Jerseyans also feel that the Governor and Legislature could have made taxes. And, by a margin of in some state services rather 4-to-i greater cuts in state spending before raising most of the public says they would prefer reductions than increases in their taxes. The latest survey, which was conducted by telephone with 800 New Jersey adults between July 2 and 10, also finds that 3-in-4 residents believe middle income people and people like themselves will be hurt by the new tax package, while equally large majorities feel that rich people and big corporations will not be affected much by the changes. The public is divided about what impact the tax package will have on the state s economy, with 4-in-lO thinking it will hurt the economy and help. i-ma thinking it will A ITENTTON RADIO STATIONS: -more Audio is available after 5:00 p.m. on Sanwday, July 21, 1990 from (Wi) (Rutgers Feature Phone). THE STATh UNrRSIW 0 NEW JERV ItlJl ter.s Eagleton nstitute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey /

2 state income tax rates which were enacted generate a somewhat mixed response from saying they have read or heard at least a little about the package. The incre.ses in Most New Jerseyans are aware that state taxes are being raised, with 85 percent -more- toll calls, compared to only 17 percent who approve. Seventy-nine percent disapprove of raising the state sales tax from 6 to 7 Seventy-four percent disapprove of extending the sales tax to disposable paper Eighty percent of New Jerseyans disapprove of a new sales tax on telephone imposing the sales tax on household soaps and detergents, while 82 percent products, compared with 23 percent who approve. Only 17 percent approve of disapprove. percent, while 19 percent say they approve. state sales taxes. Specifically, about 4-to-i against, large majorities of New Jerseyans say they disapprove of higher people with incomes under $35,000 (81% compared to 63%). By very wide margins of the threshold for the higher rates are much more likely to disapprove than are single compared to 25 percent who approve. Not surprisingly, individuals with incomes over with incomes of over $35,000, which 69 percent of New Jerseyans say they disapprove of There is greater opposition to the higher income tax rates for single taxpayers to 44 percent margin, while most Republicans and Independents disapprove. disapprove by a 70 to 30 percent margin. Democrats also support this increase by a 51 by a 51 to 45 percent margin, while married individuals with incomes over $70,000 approve. Married people with family incomes of under $70,000 approve of this change with 50 percent saying they disapprove of this increase compared to 45 percent who heads of households or married individuals with combined incomes of $70,000 or more, the public. New Jerseyans are nearly evenly divided on raising income tax rates for EP7Q-2 (SL/EP29-2) Page 2 C C-

3 compared to less than 4-in-b who said they disapproved. in New Jersey, while an almost equal number--44 percent--say they approve. In March Forty-nine percent of New Jerseyans say they oppose a new tax on oil companies of this year, 6-in-b residents said they approved of the proposal for such a tax, -more- percent say the new tax package will hurt small businesses, and another 64 percent feel percent--also agree that people like yourself will be hurt rather than helped. Also, 71 think the new taxes will hurt middle income people, and an equally large number--75 perceives some potential winners and losers. Seventy-seven percent of New Jerseyans In regard to the possible impact of the new tax package, the public clearly increase in taxes. The remainder offer no firm opinion. in some state government services compared to 16 percent who would choose an fewer services or higher taxes, 63 percent of residents say they would prefer a reduction remaining 14 percent offer no opinion. In addition, when faced with a choice between only 14 percent think that spending was cut as much as could have been done. The could have made more cuts in state spending before resorting to tax increases, while Most New Jerseyans--72 percent--feel that the Governor and State Legislature generating some anger out there. that every time they turn around they re paying more in taxes for something and it s very distressed about taxes at the moment. I think many people right now are feeling Bob Carter, Associate Director for the Poll, commented, The public is clearly smokers who endorse the increase by a 76 to 21 percent margin. happy about the increase, disapproving by a 52 to 47 percent margin, compared to non approve raising these taxes, while 30 percent disapprove. Smokers are not nearly as on alcohol, cigarettes and tobacco. Two-thirds of New Jerseyans (67%) say they The only tax hike which garners majority support from the public is the increase EP79-2 (SL/EP2t.2) Page 3

4 EP792 (SL/EP29-2) Page 4 the poor will be hurt as well. Only 12 percent of the public thinks the rich will be hurt by the new taxes, while 13 percent say it will help them and a majority of 71 percent feels it will not make much of a difference to the wealthy. Similarly, 15 percent statewide think big corporations will be hurt while an equal number say they will be helped, and 63 percent say the new taxes will make no difference for such companies. Carter added that while Governor Florio has stressed the message that the new state budget and tax plan is designed to provide relief down the road for the middle class in New Jersey, the public by and large doesn t yet see it that way. The public is divided about the possible impact of the tax package on New Jersey s economy. Forty-three percent say it will hurt the state s economy, while 25 percent think it will help and another 25 percent say it will not make much of a difference one way or the other. The public expresses no clear preference for sales tax compared to income tax increases as sources of new revenue. Thirty-two percent of New Jerseyans say the increase and expansion of the state sales tax is very or somewhat acceptable to them, compared to 29 percent who say the increase in the state income tax is very or somewhat acceptable Copyright, July 22, 1990, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledger. C

5 Lithe 411E-TLCtIgCr/EAGLETON POLL BACKGROIJI 41) MEMO RELEASE SL/EP29-2 (EP79-2). SUNDAY. JULY The latest Star-LedEer!Eagleton Poll was conducted between July 2 and 10, 1990, when a random sample of 800 New Jerseyans, 18 years and older, was interviewed by telephone. The sampling error associated with this size sample is ±3-5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error does not take into account the other possible sources of error inherent in any public opinion study. The questions and figures referred to in this release are presented below. The location of each question on the actual questionnaire is indicated in brackets. fl he New Jersey State Legislature recenily passed a package of tax increases. 1-Tow much have you read or heard about this tax package--a lot, some, just a little, or nothing at all? [Q.231 A Lot Some A Little Nothing Know July, 1990 Party ID --Democrat --Republican 29% 33% 23% 13% % 99% (800) (241) (313) (217) The following are some of the main tax increases that the legislature has passed. For each one I read, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove. First, do you approve or disapprove of... [Q.24] increasing income tax rates for heads of households or married people with combined incomes of $70,000 or more. Anprove Disapprove Know 12th July % 50% 5% 100% (800) Party ID --Democrat (241) (313) --Republican (217) Marital Status and Income --Single & under $35, (182) --Single & $35, (128) --Married & under $70, (330) --Married & $70, (103) Region --North (396) --Central (205) --South (199) (1.58) (326) (168) --65 or over (126) 114 STATE unrcpgrv cc NFW JERV RUTGERS Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey /

6 EP79-2 (SL/EP29-2) Approve Disapprove Knpw Increasing income tax for single taxpayers with incomes of $35,000 or mqre rates July % 69% 6% 100% (799) Party ID --Democrat --Republican (241) (312) (217) Marital Status and Income --Single & $35, (182) --Single & $35, (128) & $70, (329) & $75, (103) --Married --Married under under Gender male (399) --female (400) (158) (326) (167) --65 or over (126) Extending the sales tax to disposable payer vroducts which are not now taxed. July (799) Party ID (241) (312) --Republican (217) --Democrat Income --under $20, (114) --$20,001-$30, (119) --$30,001-$50, (221) --over $50, (139) Extending the sales tax to household soaps and which are not now taxed, detergents July (800) Party ID (241) (313) --Republican (217) --Democrat Gender --male (400) --female (400)

7 July % 80% 4% 101% (800) telephone toll calls. Imposing a new sales tax on Approve Disapprove Know IQlfli Panv ID-July --Democrat (241) (313) --Republican (216) March (800) July (799) in New Jersey, Imposing a new tax on oil companies Drinking Behavior --drinkers (626) --non-drinkers (174) --non-smokers (598) --smokers (202) Smoking Behavior S0orover (294) (326) (158) Age--July r \J (313) --Democrat (241) Puny ID July --Republican (217) *M&th (800) July (800) and tobacco. Raising taxes on alcohol, cigarettes --male (400) Gender -4emale (400) --Democrat (241) (313) --Republican (217) Pwlv ID 3 - EP79-2 (SL/EP29-2) -

8 EP79-2 (SL/EP29-2) 4 - Raising the stale sales tax from 6 to 7 percent on all products now taxed. Approve Disapprove Know CE July % 79% 2% 100% (800) March (799) Pani, ID July --Democrat (241) (313) --Republican (217) Me--July (158) (326) (168) --6sorover (126) Income --under $20, (114) --$20,001-$30, (119) --$30,001-$50, (222) --over $50, (139) Wording used in March 1990: Governor Florio has also proposed various tax increases or sources of new revenue for the state. For each one I read, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove. The tax package that was approved has two parts. The first part which went into effect July 1, 1990 involves increases and expansion of the state tax. The second part which begins January 1, 1991, involves raising state income tax rates for some residents. How acceptable to you is the increase and expansion of the state sales tax--very acceptable, somewhat acceptable, not very acceptable, or not at all acceptable? [Q.25j Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Acceptable Acceptable Acceotable Acceptable Know Total, July % 27% 24% 42% 3% 101% (800) Panv ID --Democrat (241) (313) --Republican (217) Income --under$20, ) (114) --$20,00lto$30, (119) --530,00lto$50, (222) --over $50, (139)

9 Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable Know IQ11 IEI Total, July % 23% 22% 46% 4% 101% (800) Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All very acceptable, or not at all acceptable? [0.26] And, how acceptable to you is the increase in the state income tax--very acceptable, somewhat acceptable, not --Democrat (241) --Republican (217) (313) Pam ID Not Make July, % 43% 25% 7% 100% (800) A Difference Know Ic1i (iii Jerseys economy? [0.28] And, in general, do you think the new tax package will help, will hurt, or not make much of a difference for New --the rich 13% 12% 71% 5% 101% (800) --middle income people (800) --people like yourself (799) --smallbusinesses (800) --thepoor (800) --big corporations (800) jjjfl A Difference Know Not Make tax package will help them, hurt them, or not make much of a difference. First, what about... [Q27] I m going to read you a short list of different groups, and would like you to tell me whether you think the new over $50, (139) --$20,001 to $30, (119) --under $20, (114) $30,00lto$50, (222) Income --Republican (217) --Democrat (241) (313) Paflv ID - EP79-2 (SL/EP29-2) -

10 EP79-2 (SL/EP29-2) ¾ Do you think that Governor Florio and the State Legislature have cut spending as much as they could have before raising taxes, or do you think could have more spending cuts? there been state Have Cut Spending Could Have Been A Much As Could More Snendin2 Cuts Know [0.29] July % 72% 14% 100% (800) Patty ID --Democrat --Republican (241) (313) (217) If you to choose between a reduction in some would you prefer? 0.3O1 had state government services, or an increase in your taxes, which July Reduction In Services Increase In Taxes Neither Know IQti % 16% 6% 16% 101% (800) {n) Partj ID July Democrat (241) Republican (313) (217) C