Lending and Foreclosure in NJ

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1 Lending and Foreclosure in NJ Kathe Newman, Associate Professor and Director with Ben Teresa, Mirabel Chen, Michael D Orazio Research Associates Ralph W. Voorhees Center for Civic Engagement Urban Planning and Policy Development Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Rutgers University September 2012

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3 NJ Housing Market Overview CoreLogic shows NJ with the second highest foreclosure inventory. As of July 2012, 5.7% of mortgaged homes were in foreclosure (behind Florida with 11.2%) (CoreLogic). The New York Federal Reserve Bank s interactive map of first lien, 1-4 unit residential mortgages that are 60 and 90+ days delinquent and in foreclosure from in Essex, Hudson, and Union counties shows all of Newark (except Vailsburg), the northern part of Elizabeth, Irvington, East Orange and Orange with 20%+ of mortgages in foreclosure at the end of 2011 (NYFRB). Zillow shows many areas in SJ and in Essex and Union with 30%+ of homes under water Zillow.com; New York Federal Reserve Bank. Regional Mortgage Conditions. Data is from LP And LPS. Yhey estimate they capture 65% of all loans regionalmortgageconditions/; CoreLogic Reports 58,000 Completed Foreclosures in July. August 28,

4 NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings Total&Foreclosure&Filings&!80,000!!!70,000!!!66,717!!!60,000!!!58,445!!!51,623!!!50,000!!!40,000!!!36,360!!!30,000!!!24,857!!!20,000!!!20,253!!!10,000!!!11,057!!!9,927!!!-!!!! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! Jan!-!June!2012! NJ Administrative Office of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from NJ Division of Banking

5 NJ Counties: Number of Residential Foreclosure Filings by 25,000" Year Filed " 2009" Number'of'Residen/al'Foreclosure'Filings' 20,000" 15,000" 10,000" 2008" 2007" 2006" 5,000" 0" ATLANTIC" BERGEN" BURLINGTON" CAMDEN" CAPE"MAY" CUMBERLAND" ESSEX" GLOUCESTER" HUDSON" HUNTERDON" MERCER" MIDDLESEX" MONMOUTH" MORRIS" OCEAN" PASSAIC" SALEM" SOMERSET" SUSSEX" UNION" WARREN" County' NJ Administrative Office of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from NJ Division of Banking

6 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2005 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

7 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2006 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

8 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2007 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

9 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2008 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

10 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2009 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

11 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2010 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

12 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2011 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

13 Foreclosure Starts SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC BERGEN WARREN MORRIS Residential Foreclosure Starts 2012 ESSEX HUDSON Less than 1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX 3,000-5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH More than 5,000 NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts ± 20 CAPE MAY Miles

14 Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area March 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Total Foreclosure Rate Trenton-Ewing, NJ 6% - 8% 8% - 10% Greater than 10% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, ± Miles Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here:

15 Prime Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area March 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ Prime Foreclosure Rate Less than 4% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Trenton-Ewing, NJ 4% to 5% 5% to 6% Greater than 6% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, ± Miles Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here:

16 Subprime Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area March 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ Subprime Foreclosure Rate 25% to 30% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Trenton-Ewing, NJ 30% to 35% 35% to 40% 40% to 45% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, ± Ocean City, NJ Miles Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here:

17 LISC Foreclosure Risk Score New Jersey December 2010 NJ Counties East Orange Newark Vailsburg Clinton Hill North Newark Clinton Hill Roseville WARREN SUSSEX MORRIS PASSAIC Jersey City HUDSON BERGEN ESSEX Intrastate Foreclosure Risk Score by ZIP Code Below 5 5 to 15 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX Irvington Plainfield to 30 MERCER MONMOUTH 30 to 50 Above 50 Willingboro Clementon Sicklerville CAMDEN BURLINGTON GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM Relative foreclosure risk at zip code in NJ Irvington is the highest risk in NJ score is based on subprime loans and loans that are delinquent and or are in foreclosure ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Local Initiatives Support Coalition, full methods here: ZIPCodeForeclosureNeedsScore_Methodology_Dec2010_IntraState.pdf ± CAPE MAY Miles

18 LISC Foreclosure Risk Score New Jersey July 2011 East Orange Newark Vailsburg Clinton Hill North Newark Clinton Hill Roseville WARREN SUSSEX MORRIS PASSAIC Jersey City HUDSON BERGEN ESSEX NJ Counties Intrastate Foreclosure Risk Score by ZIP Code Below 5 5 to 15 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX Irvington Plainfield to 30 MERCER MONMOUTH 30 to 50 Above 50 Willingboro Clementon CAMDEN Sicklerville GLOUCESTER BURLINGTON OCEAN SALEM Relative foreclosure risk at zip code in NJ Irvington is the highest risk in NJ score is based on subprime loans and loans that are delinquent and or are in foreclosure ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND Source: Local Initiatives Support Coalition, full methods here: ZIPCodeForeclosureNeedsScore_Methodology_Dec2010_IntraState.pdf ± CAPE MAY Miles

19 LISC Foreclosure Risk Score New Jersey March 2012 East Orange SUSSEX PASSAIC Jersey City Newark North Newark Vallsburg Clinton Hill Clinton Hill WARREN MORRIS BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON NJ Counties Intrastate Foreclosure Risk Score by ZIP Code Below 5 HUNTERDON SOMERSET UNION MIDDLESEX Irvington to15 15 to30 30 to 50 MERCER Plainfield MONMOUTH Above 50 Willingboro CAMDEN BURLINGTON Clementon Sicklerville GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM Relative foreclosure risk at zip code in NJ Irvington is the highest risk in NJ score is based on subprime loans and loans that are delinquent and or are in foreclosure Pleasantville ATLANTIC Source: Local Initiatives Support Coalition, ± CUMBERLAND CAPE MAY Millville full methods here: ZIPCodeForeclosureRiskScore_Methodology_July2012_IntraState.pdf Miles

20 SUSSEX Residential Vacancy New Jersey March 2012 PASSAIC BERGEN MORRIS WARREN ESSEX NJ Counties HUDSON Residential Vacancy Rate by Census Tract 2012 UNION Less than 1% 1% - 3% MIDDLESEX HUNTERDON SOMERSET 3% - 5% 5% - 10% MONMOUTH MERCER Greater than 10% No Data Available BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM ATLANTIC Source: HUD User, Aggregated USPS Vacancy Data, 1st Quarter, ± CUMBERLAND CAPE MAY Miles

21 Metro Areas: Highest Foreclosure Rate Of U.S. metro areas as of March 2012 Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton metropolitan area ranked 6th with an overall foreclosure rate of 15% 10% prime foreclosure rate, 46% subprime foreclosure rate Atlantic City-Hammonton metropolitan area ranked 15th with an overall foreclosure rate of 13% 9% prime foreclosure rate, 44% subprime foreclosure rate Trenton-Ewing metropolitan area ranked 28th with an overall foreclosure rate of 9% 6% prime foreclosure rate, 37% subprime foreclosure rate Ocean City metropolitan area ranked 99th with an overall foreclosure rate of 6% 5% prime foreclosure rate, 37% subprime foreclosure rate Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here: : response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html Seriously delinquent loans are measured as loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.

22 Metro Areas: 90+ days delinquent,not yet in foreclosure Of U.S. metro areas as of March 2012 Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton metropolitan area ranked 1st with 90 day+ delinquency rate of 9% Atlantic City-Hammonton metropolitan area ranked 7th with a 90+ day delinquency rate of 6% Trenton-Ewing metropolitan area ranked 69th with a 90+ day delinquency rate of 4% Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here: : response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.

23 Metro Areas: Increase in 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure March March 2012 Of metro areas in the U.S. with the largest increase in 90+ day delinquencies as of March 2012 over March 2011 Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton (20 to 24%) ranked 1st Atlantic City-Hammonton (16 to 19%) ranked 2nd Trenton-Ewing (11 to 13%) ranked 3rd Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March LPS analysis available here: response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html Seriously delinquent loans are measured as first liens that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Seriously delinquent rate is measured as 90+ delinquent share of all first lien mortgages.

24 NJ: Prime, GSE, FHA/VA, and Jumbo Loan Performance November %# 8%# 7%# 6%# 5%# 4%# 3%# 30?59#Days#Delinquent# 60?89#Days#Delinquent# 90+#Days#Delinquent# Foreclosure# 2%# 1%# 0%# Fannie#and# Freddie# FHA#VA# JUMBO#NJ# Prime# Federal Reserve Bank of New York. U.S. Credit Conditions website. Prime, FHA/VA and Jumbo loan performance are from the Lender Processing Services, Mortgage Performance dataset. The NY Fed estimates this dataset captures 50-70% of these loans.

25 NJ: Number of Active Loans Dec 09 - Nov ,000,000" 900,000" 800,000" 700,000" 600,000" 500,000" 400,000" December"2009" February"2010" August"2010" October"2010" November"2010" 300,000" 200,000" 100,000" 0" Prime" GSE" FHA"and"VA" JUMBO" AltCA" Subprime" Federal Reserve Bank of New York. U.S. Credit Conditions website. Prime, FHA/VA and Jumbo loan performance are from the Lender Processing Services, Mortgage Performance dataset. The NY Fed estimates this dataset captures 50-70% of these loans. Subprime and Prime is from FirstAmerican CoreLogic and includes privately securitized (i.e. not through the Government Sponsored Enterprise) loans. The NY Fed estimates that this dataset captures 47 percent of subprime loans and 90 percent of the Alt-A loan pools.

26 NJ Counties: Percent of Prime, GSE, FHA, and Jumbo 18.0%$ Loans in Foreclosure June %$ 14.0%$ Percentage)of)Loans)in)Foreclosure) 12.0%$ 10.0%$ 8.0%$ 6.0%$ 4.0%$ 2.0%$ 0.0%$ Atlan/c$ Bergen$ Burlington$ Camden$ Cape$May$ Cumberland$ Essex$ Gloucester$ Hudson$ Hunterdon$ Mercer$ Middlesex$ Monmouth$ Morris$ Ocean$ Passaic$ Salem$ Somerset$ Sussex$ Union$ Warren$ Prime$ FHA$and$VA$ JUMBO$ Fannie$and$Freddie$ County) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. U.S. Credit Conditions website. Lender Processing Services, Mortgage Performance Data. The NY Federal Reserve estimates that this dataset captures 50-70% of these types of loans

27 NJ: Subprime Loan Performance November 2010 (owner occupied) REO' 3%' 50,847 owner occupied subprime loans 41% current 51% 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO In'Foreclosure' 26%' Current'Payment' 40%' Current'Payment' 30059'Days'Delinquent' 60089'Days'Delinquent' 90+'Days'Delinquent' In'Foreclosure' REO' 90+'Days'Delinquent' 18%' 60089'Days'Delinquent' 4%' 30059'Days' Delinquent' 9%' The dataset is from FirstAmerican CoreLogic and includes subprime and Alt-A loans securitized privately (i.e. not through the Government Sponsored Enterprise). The NY Fed estimates that this dataset captures 47 percent of subprime loans and 90 percent of the Alt-A loan pools data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/#

28 NJ: Alt-A Loan Performance November 2010 (owner occupied) In'Foreclosure' 20%' REO' 2%' 43,034 owner occupied Alt-A loans 59% current 36% 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO Current'Payment' 30159'Days'Delinquent' 60189'Days'Delinquent' 90+'Days'Delinquent' 11%' Current'Payment' 59%' 90+'Days'Delinquent' In'Foreclosure' REO' 60189'Days' Delinquent' 3%' 30159'Days' Delinquent' 5%' The dataset is from FirstAmerican CoreLogic and includes subprime and Alt-A loans securitized privately (i.e. not through the Government Sponsored Enterprise). The NY Fed estimates that this dataset captures 47 percent of subprime loans and 90 percent of the Alt-A loan pools data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/#

29 NJ: Number of Loans in Foreclosure and 90+ Days 50,000" Delinquent November ,000" 40,000" 35,000" 30,000" 25,000" 20,000" Foreclosure" 90"+"Days"Delinquent" 15,000" 10,000" 5,000" 0" FHA"VA" Jumbo" Prime" GSE" Alt"A" Subprime" Federal Reserve Bank of New York. U.S. Credit Conditions website. FHA VA et al are from LPS. Subprime and Prime is from FirstAmerican CoreLogic and includes privately securitized (i.e. not through the Government Sponsored Enterprise) loans. The NY Fed estimates that this dataset captures 47 percent of subprime loans and 90 percent of the Alt-A loan pools.

30 NJ: Loan Modifications and Workouts Reported by the Federal HAMP Program 40,000" 35,000" Number'of'Modfica/ons' 30,000" 25,000" 20,000" 15,000" 10,000" AcAve"or"Permanent" ModificaAons" AcAve"Trials" Permanent" ModificaAons" 5,000" 0" Oct,09" Nov,09" Dec,09" Jan,10" Feb,10" Mar,10" Apr,10" May,10" Jun,10" Jul,10" Aug,10" Sep,10" Oct,10" Nov,10" Dec,10" Jan,11" Feb,11" Mar,11" Apr,11" May,11" Jun,11" Jul,11" Aug,11" Sep,11" Oct,11" Nov,11" Dec,11" Jan,12" Feb,12" Mar,12" Apr,12" May,12" Making Home Affordable. Servicer Performance Report Through May 2012 As of June 2012,

31 NJ: Total Debt Balance per Capita 100" 90" 80" 70" AZ" CA" Thousands)of)Dollars) 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" FL" IL" MI" NJ" NV" NY" OH" PA" TX" ALL" 10" 0" 03:Q1" 03:Q2" 03:Q3" 03:Q4" 04:Q1" 04:Q2" 04:Q3" 04:Q4" 05:Q1" 05:Q2" 05:Q3" 05:Q4" 06:Q1" 06:Q2" 06:Q3" 06:Q4" 07:Q1" 07:Q2" 07:Q3" 07:Q4" 08:Q1" 08:Q2" 08:Q3" 08:Q4" 09:Q1" 09:Q2" 09:Q3" 09:Q4" 10:Q1" 10:Q2" 10:Q3" 10:Q4" 11:Q1" 11:Q2" 11:Q3" 11:Q4" 12:Q1" 12:Q2" Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Consumer Credit Panel. Equifax data. Technical Documentation is here Technical_Notes_HHDC.pdf

32 NJ: Percentage of First Mortgages, Home Equity Loans, and Home Equity Lines of Credit that are 90 + Days Delinquent 18.00# Atlan3c#County# Percentage)of)Consumers)with)Mortgages)90+Days)Delinquent) 16.00# 14.00# 12.00# 10.00# 8.00# 6.00# 4.00# 2.00# Bergen#County# Burlington#County# Camden#County# Cape#May#County# Cumberland#County# Essex#County# Gloucester#County# Hudson#County# Hunterdon#County# Mercer#County# Middlesex#County# Monmouth#County# Morris#County# Ocean#County# Passaic#County# Salem#County# Somerset#County# Sussex#County# Union#County# 0.00# 4Q1999# 4Q2000# 4Q2001# 4Q2002# 4Q2003# 4Q2004# 4Q2005# 4Q2006# 4Q2007# 4Q2008# 4Q2009# 4Q2010# 4Q2011# Warren#County# New York Federal Reserve Bank Quarterly Debt and Credit Report. Data is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel. This chart includes mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and home equity loans

33 Community Response Foreclosure Task Forces Bring service providers, government, and non-profit organizations together to understand foreclosure and the extent and geography of the problem and to consider coordinated responses and network. Essex Newark Foreclosure Task Force Union County Foreclosure Task Force Trenton had one and it may not be that active now Morris County Foreclosure Task Force Coordinate outreach events, distribute information, facilitate referrals, reach out to financial institutions and other governmental and non governmental actors

34 The Future 90+ day delinquency rates are high Alternatives to foreclosure loan modifications and workouts short sales refinance Unemployment Credit - cost and availability

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