71 st Annual Field Meeting

Transcription

1 71 st Annual Field Meeting Delaware FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA

2 Welcome Speakers: Keith Morales Cybersecurity John Munera Banking Trends and Supervisory Update Elif Sen Economic Outlook Lunch Closing remarks by President Pat Harker Post-meeting package (questionnaire results, presentations, & links to resources)

3 Banking Trends and Supervisory Update John Munera Assistant Vice President

4 Overview Third District Banking Conditions Earnings performance Liquidity and non-core funding dependence Commercial real estate (CRE) in the Third District Current expected credit loss (CECL) and impact to community banking organizations Regulatory updates

5 Third District Banking Conditions * The charts on the following slides uses call report data as of 2016Q1 and 2016Q2 (when possible). The universe of community banks in this analysis consist of commercial banks with less than $10 billion in assets. This report utilizes a 10 percent capped mean, or winsorized mean, to compute the average district and national ratios, unless otherwise identified.

6 Third District Community Banks Earnings Performance 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% Net Interest Margin Third District Nation

7 Third District Community Banks Yield on Assets 7.5% Yield on Assets 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Nation Yield on Assets 3D Yield on Assets

8 Third District Community Banks Cost of Funding 3.5% Cost of Funds 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3D Funding Costs Nation Funding Costs

9 Third District CRE Highlights Generally, Third District community banks have experienced stronger CRE growth than community banks throughout the nation Third District community banks are reporting improvements in asset quality metrics Third District metrics have recovered significantly since the Great Recession Examination staff focuses on compliance with supervisory guidance and reviewing CRE, high volatility CRE, and construction and land development (C&LD) loans

10 Third District Community Banks CRE Concentrations Based on Bank Size* 350% 310% 300% 279% 250% 236% 200% 150% 154% 150% 100% 113% 70% 119% 94% 96% 50% 0% 20% 11% 8% 40% 8% 16% 18% 23% 32% 24% < $100MM $100MM to $500MM $500MM to $1B $1B to $10B CLD Multi-Family OO NFNR Other NFNR Total CRE * This graph uses median concentrations for each of the asset categories and will therefore not compute to the total CRE exposure.

11 Third District Community Banks Overall CRE Loan Composition* 100% 90% 80% 34% 34% 38% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 44% 39% 70% 60% 50% 40% 37% 35% 34% 36% 37% 38% 37% 36% 32% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 10% 13% 14% 20% 25% 27% 23% 20% 15% 13% 12% 12% 10% 7% Q22016 CLD Multi Family OO NFNR Other NFNR * This graph includes categorical CRE loans as a percentage of total CRE loans within the Third District at each time interval.

12 Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)

13 CECL Model FASB issued ASU CECL recognizes expected credit losses on financial instruments Applies to all banks, savings associations, and holding companies Effective for SEC filers in 2020 and for other entities in 2021 Regulators issued a joint statement on the New Accounting Standard on Financial Instruments Federal Reserve issued supervisory (SR) letter

14 Preparing for CECL Review existing allowance model, systems, and practices and leverage as appropriate Engage all relevant business lines in planning and implementation efforts Identify and collect historical data to estimate life of loan expected losses Discuss plans with auditors, industry peers, and regulators

15 Regulatory Updates

16 Banking Agencies Efforts to Reduce Regulatory Burden Interagency efforts to alleviate regulatory burden Use of evaluation in lieu of appraisal for real estate related financial transactions Proposal to reduce Call Report requirements for small financial institutions FAST Act changes Extended examination cycle for institutions under $1 billion Annual privacy notice under Regulation P Community bank exemption for certain mortgage rules Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Review Process Regulators continue to address comments based on 2014 and 2015 outreach meetings

17 Regulatory Updates Consumer Financial Protection Bureau s pending proposed rules Prepaid cards Mortgage servicing Payday lending/title loan proposal Federal Reserve 2016 efforts Off-site loan review during examinations Expectations for relying on work of insured depository institution regulators

18 Banking Trends and Supervisory Update John Munera Assistant Vice President

19 Report on Economic and Financial Developments Elif Sen * Senior Economic Analyst * The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.

20 GDP

21 GDP AND GDPplus GROWTH 2012 Q Q3 Percent, SAAR 6 4 GDPplus GDP 2.9% % Q Q Q Q Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Last quarter plotted: 2016 Q3 (advance estimate)

22 GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR 2015 Q Q3 Percent, SAAR Real GDP Consumption Nonresidential Investment Residential Investment Exports Government Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Last quarter plotted: 2016 Q3 (advance estimate)

23 GDP FORECAST 2005 Q Q3 Percent, SAAR 4 2.9% Date 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 Forecast 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2006 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 GDP SPF Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Last quarter plotted: 2016 Q3 for GDP (advance estimate); 2017 Q3 for Survey of Professional Forecasters (Third Quarter SPF)

24 PHILLY FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEYS General Activity Indexes for Manufacturing (MBOS) and Nonmanufacturing (NBOS) Firms Diffusion Index (% reporting increase less % reporting decrease) MBOS NBOS Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Source: FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: October 2016

25 PHILLY FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEYS Future General Activity Indexes for Manufacturing (MBOS) and Nonmanufacturing (NBOS) Firms Diffusion Index (% reporting increase less % reporting decrease) MBOS NBOS Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Source: FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: October 2016

26 Employment

27 U.S. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Change in monthly U.S. payroll employment Thousands, SA 350 Oct. 2016: 161K 2016 Avg: 181K Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Note: Black lines indicate annual averages. Last month plotted: October 2016

28 U.S. AND STATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Year-over-year growth Percent, SA % % 1.3 % 0.9 % U.S. DE NJ PA Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: October2016 for U.S., September 2016 for three states

29 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR U.S. and Delaware, year-over-year percent change Total Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government Percent U.S. DE Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: October 2016 for U.S., September 2016 for Delaware

30 TRI-STATE METRO AREA PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Year-over-year percent change (3-month moving average) A = Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA B = Altoona MSA C = Atlantic City-Hammonton MSA D = Bloomsburg-Berwick MSA E = Camden Metro Division F = Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA G = Dover MSA H = East Stroudsburg MSA I = Erie MSA J = Gettysburg MSA K = Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA L = Johnstown MSA M = Lancaster MSA N = Lebanon MSA O = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester County MD P = Newark Metro Division Q* = New York-New Jersey-White Plains MD R = Ocean City MSA S = Philadelphia-Delaware County MD T = Pittsburgh MSA U = Reading MSA V* = Salisbury MSA W = Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton MSA X = State College MSA Y = Trenton MSA Z = Vineland-Bridgeton MSA AA = Williamsport MSA AB* = Wilmington Metro Division AC = York-Hanover MSA AD* = Youngstown-Warren MSA * Also includes counties not shown on map. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

31 U.S. AND STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Percent, SA % 5.3 % 4.9 % 4.3 % 3 U.S. DE NJ PA 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: October 2016 for U.S., September 2016 for three states

32 TRI-STATE METRO AREA UNEMPLOYMENT RATES A = Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA B = Altoona MSA C = Atlantic City-Hammonton MSA D = Bloomsburg-Berwick MSA E = Camden Metro Division F = Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA G = Dover MSA H = East Stroudsburg MSA I = Erie MSA J = Gettysburg MSA K = Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA L = Johnstown MSA M = Lancaster MSA N = Lebanon MSA O = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester County MD P = Newark Metro Division Q* = New York-New Jersey-White Plains MD R = Ocean City MSA S = Philadelphia-Delaware County MD T = Pittsburgh MSA U = Reading MSA V* = Salisbury MSA W = Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton MSA X = State College MSA Y = Trenton MSA Z = Vineland-Bridgeton MSA AA = Williamsport MSA AB* = Wilmington Metro Division AC = York-Hanover MSA AD* = Youngstown-Warren MSA * Also includes counties not shown on map. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

33 Housing conditions

34 CORE LOGIC HOUSE PRICE GROWTH BY STATE Year-over-year, 3-month moving average (nominal) U.S. average = 6.2% Source: Calculations from Core Logic Last month included: September 2016

35 FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY As a share of all active loans Percent, SA 8 6 U.S. DE NJ PA % % 1.3 % 1.1 % 0 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

36 REO ACTIVITY As a share of all active loans Percent, SA 1.5 U.S. DE NJ PA 1.3 % % % 0.6 % 0.0 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

37 CORE LOGIC HOUSE PRICE GROWTH BY COUNTY Year-over-year, 3-month moving average (nominal) Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: September 2016

38 HOUSE PRICE GROWTH EXCL. DISTRESSED SALES Year-over-year, 3-month moving average (nominal) Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: September 2016

39 Monetary Policy

40 U.S. PCE INFLATION Year-over-year percent change Percent, SA % 1.7 % 1.2 % PCE Core PCE FOMC Target Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: September 2016

41 MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF RATE INCREASE Based on CME Fed Funds Futures Contracts Percent % December meeting May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Source: Bloomberg Note: Shaded areas represent FOMC meeting dates. Last week plotted: November 4, 2016

42 SUMMARY Led by continued strong consumer spending, forecasts anticipate steady GDP growth slightly above 2 percent next year Employment growth continues to be steady in the nation and in our region Home price growth will likely be below average in the nearterm in regions with larger REO volumes to clear

43 U.S. AND LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Monthly, seasonally adjusted (most recent year's value labeled) Percent (seasonally adjusted) U.S. Delaware Philadelphia MSA Wilmington Metro. Div. Dover MSA Salisbury MSA 4.3 % 6.6 % 5.4 % 5.0 % 4.7 % 4.5 % 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Last month plotted: September 2016 for U.S., September 2016 for state and metro areas

44 Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S., DE, and Dover MSA Total Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% U.S. DE Dover MSA Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Sep 2016); DE and MSA (Sep 2016)

45 Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S., DE, and Wilmington MSA Total Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government 0% 5% 10% U.S. DE Wilmington Metro. Div. Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Sep 2016); DE and MSA (Sep 2016)

46 Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S., DE, and Salisbury MSA Total Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% U.S. DE Salisbury MSA Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Sep 2016); DE and MSA (Sep 2016)

47 DELINQUENCY RATES Delaware Percent, SA % % 1.7 % % 0.6 % 0 30DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

48 DELINQUENCY RATES Philadelphia MSA Percent, SA 30DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO % % 2.0 % % 1.0 % 0 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

49 DELINQUENCY RATES Dover MSA Percent, SA 6 30DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO % 2.6 % 2.1 % 1.3 % 1.1 % 0 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

50 DELINQUENCY RATES Salisbury MSA Percent, SA DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO % % 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.0 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Last month plotted: September 2016

51 Migration Trends

52 TRI-STATE MIGRATION PATTERNS USING IRS DATA Percentage Change in Number of Tax Returns, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

53 AGI CHANGE FROM TOTAL MIGRATION Percentage change in total adjusted gross income, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

54 AGI CHANGE FROM OUT-OF-STATE MIGRATION Percentage change in total adjusted gross income, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

55 Contact Information Elif Sen Senior Economic Analyst (215) For online access to our latest data and research, go to:

56 71 st Annual Field Meeting Delaware FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA