All questions herein were placed carefully on the questionnaire and then randomized to ensure that there was no inter-item contamination.

Transcription

1 These are the survey questions (including any preamble) and detailed tables of a Toronto Sun/National Post DART Insight poll created and analyzed in full consultation and under the direction of veteran pollster John Wright, CEO of DART Insight, a division of DART Insight and Communications Inc. The data was collected in partnership with Canada s national survey sample research provider Maru/Blue that curates a vast Online Panel and provides data collection services. All questions herein were placed carefully on the questionnaire and then randomized to ensure that there was no inter-item contamination. The survey was conducted on a total split sample of 5,769 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue s Online panel between September 13-19, Respondents could opt in for either official language. The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region to match the population, according to Census data. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The precision of this DART Insight Online poll is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. In this case, a weighted split sample size of 2,902/2,867 is accurate to +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population and individual provinces. Paired/Overlap T-Test for Means, Paired/Overlap Z-Test for Percentages Uppercase letters indicate significance at the 95% level. Visit for the written release and detailed tables. For further information or commentary please contact: John Wright CEO DART Insight DART Insight and Communications (416) jwright@dartincom.ca Page 1

2 1. Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? [SINGLE RESPONSE RANDOMIZE FIRST TWO] It s time for a change in government the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party It s not time for a change in government Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be re-elected Don t know/not sure 2. Based on how you feel right now, which party s candidate would you be most likely to support in your own riding if a federal election were held tomorrow? [SINGLE RESPONSE - [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] Would not vote [FIX POSITION] [IF WOULD NOT VOTE or Not sure/can t say IN FP3 ASK:] 3. Is there any party you are leaning towards? [SINGLE RESPONSE [KEEP SAME ORDER AS IN FP3] Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] 4. Now, thinking back to the last Canadian federal election held in October 2015 did you actually go out and vote in that election? [SINGLE RESPONSE] [THIS ORDER] Page 2

3 Yes, definitely voted Probably voted Maybe not/can t recall No, did not vote in that election [ASK ALL WHO SAY THEY VOTED OR MAY HAVE VOTED, TOP 3 BOX ABOVE] 5. And, which party s candidate did you vote for in that 2015 federal election? [SINGLE RESPONSE] Conservative Party Liberal Party [Continue to 6, ALL Others skip to 7] New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] 6. Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements: [Grid Down] [Randomize] Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 [Grid Across] Agree very much Agree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Disagree very much 7. Maxime Bernier is an elected member of the Federal Parliament of Canada from Quebec who recently resigned from the Federal Conservative party to form his own Party. He said the Conservative Party of Canada is not Conservative enough and he is opposed to: Canada s production quotas for dairy, poultry and eggs; the use of retaliatory trade tariffs against the U.S.; current immigration and multiculturalism policies and what he calls extreme diversity ; federal equalization transfers; corporate welfare ; and, regional economic agencies that subsidize businesses. Page 3

4 Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? [Choose One] [Grid Down] Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Page 4

5 Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED It is time for a change in government, the Liberals 50% 53% 47% 43% 51% 53% 50% 51% 49% 53% 50% 45% under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party C D D L It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be re-elected % 30% 28% 32% 30% 27% 27% 30% 37% 24% 29% 37% GH J JK Not sure % 17% 25% 25% 20% 20% 23% 19% 14% 23% 21% 18% B EF HI I L Page 5

6 Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED It is time for a change in government, the Liberals under 50% 52% 69% 58% 46% 46% 43% Justin Trudeau should be FGH BDFGH BFGH replaced by a different party It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be reelected % 27% 19% 26% 33% 28% 36% C C BCD C BCDG Not sure % 21% 13% 16% 21% 25% 22% CD C CD CD CD Page 6

7 Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Vote Intention (Fed vote)-including Leaners Urban/Rural Total 905 PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other Urban Rural (A) (R) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED It is time for a change in government, the Liberals 50% 42% 89% 6% 48% 77% 49% 67% 49% 54% under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party WXYZA1 W WXZ W WXZ M1 It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be reelected % 35% 4% 79% 26% 10% 26% 7% 30% 27% O VXYZA1 VYA1 VYA1 Not sure % 22% 7% 15% 26% 13% 25% 25% 21% 19% O V VWY VWY V Page 7

8 (Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency? Undecided: 15% Gender Age Income Education Tech Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or less school Univ+ (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: Decided voters BASE: UNWEIGHTED Conservative Party % 43% 33% 24% 39% 44% 34% 40% 38% 44% 37% 31% C D DE G KL Liberal Party % 30% 31% 33% 28% 31% 27% 29% 37% 27% 31% 33% GH J New Democratic Party (NDP) % 14% 20% 27% 17% 13% 19% 18% 15% 15% 18% 20% B EF F Bloc Québécois % 4% 5% 3% 5% 5% 7% 4% 2% 5% 4% 5% D D HI I K Green Party % 7% 9% 11% 8% 6% 11% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% B F HI Other party % 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% F F Page 8

9 (Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would Undecided: 15% Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: Decided voters BASE: UNWEIGHTED Conservative Party % 35% 68% 50% 39% 25% 31% G BDFGH BFGH GH G Liberal Party % 26% 18% 26% 33% 29% 45% C C BCD C BCDFG New Democratic Party (NDP) % 22% 9% 16% 19% 18% 14% CDH C CH C C Bloc Québécois % 19% Green Party % 14% 3% 7% 8% 7% 7% CDFGH C C C C Other party % 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% Page 9

10 (Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency? Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouver Edmontom Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: Decided voters BASE: UNWEIGHTED Conservative Party % 31% 58% 75% 40% 35% 38% 30% 22% 30% 37% 44% T MPQRSTUMNPQRSTU MTU T T T M1 Liberal Party % 29% 23% 14% 36% 37% 34% 43% 29% 47% 30% 29% O O NO NO O MNOT O MNOPQRT New Democratic Party (NDP) % 24% 14% 6% 15% 19% 19% 19% 17% 14% 19% 11% NOPU O O O O O O O N1 Bloc Québécois % 23% 4% 5% Green Party Other party % 13% 2% 4% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% NOPQSTU N N N N % 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% Undecided: 15% Page 10

11 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader 49% 45% 28% 38% 51% 58% 52% The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 C C CD BCD CD % 36% 24% 32% 43% 43% 41% C C CD CD CD % 68% 78% 70% 64% 71% 60% H BDFH H H % 78% 88% 81% 79% 74% 76% BDFGH G Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader 51% 55% 72% 62% 49% 42% 48% G BDFGH FGH Page 11

12 The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in % 64% 76% 68% 57% 57% 59% BDFGH FGH % 32% 22% 30% 36% 29% 40% C C C BCDG % 22% 12% 19% 21% 26% 24% C C C CD C Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 9% 6% 11% 12% 13% 17% C C C BCD Agree somewhat % 36% 22% 27% 39% 44% 35% CD CD CDH CD Disagree somewhat % 27% 20% 19% 25% 21% 24% CD Disagree very much % 28% 52% 42% 24% 22% 25% BDFGH BFGH Top2box % 45% 28% 38% 51% 58% 52% C C CD BCD CD Bottom2box % 55% 72% 62% 49% 42% 48% G BDFGH FGH Page 12

13 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 9% BC BC BC Agree somewhat % 32% 21% 24% 35% 34% 32% CD CD CD CD Disagree somewhat % 32% 24% 25% 30% 35% 30% CD CD Disagree very much % 33% 52% 43% 28% 21% 29% G BDFGH BFGH G Top2box % 36% 24% 32% 43% 43% 41% C C CD CD CD Bottom2box % 64% 76% 68% 57% 57% 59% BDFGH FGH Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Page 13

14 Agree very much % 33% 56% 46% 34% 41% 34% BDFGH BFH Agree somewhat % 35% 22% 24% 31% 30% 26% CDH CD C Disagree somewhat % 22% 13% 17% 26% 19% 26% C CD CD Disagree very much % 10% 9% 13% 10% 10% 14% Top2box % 68% 78% 70% 64% 71% 60% H BDFH H H Bottom2box % 32% 22% 30% 36% 29% 40% C C C BCDG Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 33% 46% 41% 28% 29% 31% BFGH BFGH Agree somewhat % 45% 42% 40% 51% 44% 45% CD Disagree somewhat % 18% 8% 15% 16% 20% 16% C C C C C Page 14

15 Disagree very much % 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% BCD Top2box % 78% 88% 81% 79% 74% 76% BDFGH G Bottom2box % 22% 12% 19% 21% 26% 24% C C C CD C Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Very likely % 4% 4% 3% 8% 7% 4% BCDH Somewhat likely % 13% 20% 10% 19% 16% 15% BD BD D Not very likely % 29% 28% 23% 28% 25% 24% Not at all likely % 55% 48% 64% 44% 53% 57% F BCFG CF Top2box % 16% 24% 13% 28% 22% 19% BD BDH D Bottom2box % 84% 76% 87% 72% 78% 81% CF CFG F Page 15

16 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an 49% 44% 53% 66% 44% 44% 50% 48% 52% 42% 49% 59% effective leader B EF J JK The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in % 36% 42% 48% 36% 37% 40% 39% 43% 35% 41% 44% B EF J J % 70% 67% 60% 67% 74% 68% 67% 69% 72% 68% 62% DE L % 76% 80% 75% 77% 81% 79% 80% 78% 80% 78% 76% Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Gender Age Income Education Page 16

17 Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an 51% 56% 47% 34% 56% 56% 50% 52% 48% 58% 51% 41% effective leader C D D KL L The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in % 64% 58% 52% 64% 63% 60% 61% 57% 65% 59% 56% C D D KL % 30% 33% 40% 33% 26% 32% 33% 31% 28% 32% 38% F F J % 24% 20% 25% 23% 19% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 24% Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 12% 11% 13% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 9% 14% 12% J Agree somewhat Page 17

18 37% 32% 42% 53% 33% 33% 38% 35% 39% 33% 35% 46% B EF JK Disagree somewhat % 23% 24% 22% 25% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% Disagree very much % 33% 24% 11% 31% 35% 28% 30% 24% 35% 27% 18% C D D KL L Top2box % 44% 53% 66% 44% 44% 50% 48% 52% 42% 49% 59% B EF J JK Bottom2box % 56% 47% 34% 56% 56% 50% 52% 48% 58% 51% 41% C D D KL L Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 10% 6% J Agree somewhat % 29% 35% 41% 29% 30% 31% 32% 37% 28% 31% 38% B EF J Disagree somewhat % 30% 31% 37% 28% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 33% E Disagree very much % 34% 28% 15% 36% 34% 30% 31% 28% 36% 30% 23% Page 18

19 C D D KL Top2box % 36% 42% 48% 36% 37% 40% 39% 43% 35% 41% 44% B EF J J Bottom2box % 64% 58% 52% 64% 63% 60% 61% 57% 65% 59% 56% C D D KL Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 44% 34% 19% 39% 49% 41% 40% 34% 45% 40% 28% C D DE L L Agree somewhat % 26% 33% 41% 28% 25% 27% 27% 35% 27% 28% 34% B EF Disagree somewhat % 21% 23% 29% 22% 18% 23% 22% 19% 19% 20% 29% F JK Disagree very much % 10% 10% 11% 11% 8% 9% 11% 12% 9% 13% 9% J Top2box % 70% 67% 60% 67% 74% 68% 67% 69% 72% 68% 62% DE L Bottom2box % 30% 33% 40% 33% 26% 32% 33% 31% 28% 32% 38% Page 19

20 F F J Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 35% 29% 18% 33% 39% 34% 34% 28% 37% 33% 23% C D DE L L Agree somewhat % 41% 51% 57% 44% 42% 45% 46% 50% 43% 45% 53% B EF J Disagree somewhat % 17% 16% 23% 16% 13% 14% 16% 17% 15% 15% 21% F Disagree very much % 7% 4% 2% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 5% 7% 3% D D L Top2box % 76% 80% 75% 77% 81% 79% 80% 78% 80% 78% 76% Bottom2box % 24% 20% 25% 23% 19% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 24% Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Gender Age Income Education Page 20

21 Total Male Female <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Very likely % 7% 5% 6% 9% 3% 8% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% F Somewhat likely % 15% 18% 18% 20% 13% 16% 20% 14% 16% 20% 14% F I L Not very likely % 25% 29% 32% 27% 24% 26% 24% 32% 28% 25% 27% H Not at all likely % 53% 48% 44% 43% 60% 51% 51% 49% 51% 48% 52% DE Top2box % 22% 23% 25% 29% 16% 23% 25% 19% 22% 27% 20% F F J Bottom2box % 78% 77% 75% 71% 84% 77% 75% 81% 78% 73% 80% DE K Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) Page 21

22 BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an 49% 49% 32% 24% 51% 55% 55% 56% 61% 51% 50% 41% effective leader NO NO NO NO NO NO NO N1 The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in % 39% 26% 25% 43% 47% 48% 44% 43% 41% 40% 35% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO % 61% 74% 82% 63% 67% 71% 61% 75% 61% 66% 77% MPU MPQSU MPSU M % 77% 88% 86% 75% 77% 77% 76% 77% 76% 78% 82% MPQSTU PU Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Page 22

23 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in % 51% 68% 76% 49% 45% 45% 44% 39% 49% 50% 59% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU M % 61% 74% 75% 57% 53% 52% 56% 57% 59% 60% 65% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU % 39% 26% 18% 37% 33% 29% 39% 25% 39% 34% 23% NOT NOT O OT NOT N % 23% 12% 14% 25% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 22% 18% N NO N N N NO Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 7% 6% 4% 16% 14% 17% 8% 12% 16% 11% 13% MNO O O O MNO Agree somewhat Page 23

24 37% 42% 26% 20% 35% 42% 38% 48% 49% 35% 39% 28% NO O NO O NOU NOPU O N1 Disagree somewhat % 28% 26% 20% 22% 29% 28% 31% 17% 24% 23% 24% T T T Disagree very much % 23% 42% 56% 27% 15% 17% 12% 23% 25% 27% 35% S MPQRSTU MPQRSTU QS QS M1 Top2box % 49% 32% 24% 51% 55% 55% 56% 61% 51% 50% 41% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO N1 Bottom2box % 51% 68% 76% 49% 45% 45% 44% 39% 49% 50% 59% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU M1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 2% 5% 4% 11% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% MO M M Agree somewhat % 37% 21% 20% 32% 38% 40% 35% 35% 32% 33% 28% NO NO NO NO O NO NO Disagree somewhat % 35% 31% 22% 29% 31% 24% 43% 34% 29% 31% 30% O R OPQRU O Page 24

25 Disagree very much % 26% 44% 54% 28% 22% 27% 13% 23% 30% 29% 36% S MPQSTU MPQRSTU S S Top2box % 39% 26% 25% 43% 47% 48% 44% 43% 41% 40% 35% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO Bottom2box % 61% 74% 75% 57% 53% 52% 56% 57% 59% 60% 65% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 30% 47% 58% 36% 26% 26% 27% 43% 35% 37% 46% MQRSU MPQRSTU MQRS M1 Agree somewhat % 31% 27% 24% 27% 41% 45% 34% 32% 26% 29% 30% NOPU NOPU Disagree somewhat % 27% 15% 10% 24% 26% 20% 35% 17% 27% 23% 15% NO O O NOT NOT N1 Disagree very much % 13% 10% 8% 13% 7% 8% 4% 7% 12% 10% 9% S S S Top2box % 61% 74% 82% 63% 67% 71% 61% 75% 61% 66% 77% Page 25

26 MPU MPQSU MPSU M1 Bottom2box % 39% 26% 18% 37% 33% 29% 39% 25% 39% 34% 23% NOT NOT O OT NOT N1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 27% 40% 49% 29% 23% 22% 23% 29% 30% 31% 38% QRS MPQRSTU Agree somewhat % 50% 48% 37% 47% 54% 55% 53% 47% 45% 47% 44% O O O O Disagree somewhat % 19% 6% 11% 19% 19% 18% 20% 17% 17% 17% 14% N N N N N N Disagree very much % 3% 6% 3% 5% 4% 5% 3% 7% 8% 6% 4% MO Top2box % 77% 88% 86% 75% 77% 77% 76% 77% 76% 78% 82% MPQSTU PU Bottom2box % 23% 12% 14% 25% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 22% 18% N NO N N N NO Page 26

27 Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Very likely % 4% 1% 5% 2% 10% 11% 8% 4% 4% 6% 5% N NP N N N Somewhat likely % 13% 16% 21% 12% 18% 15% 25% 15% 15% 17% 17% P Not very likely % 30% 30% 34% 27% 33% 38% 25% 29% 25% 26% 30% Not at all likely % 53% 53% 40% 59% 39% 36% 43% 52% 56% 51% 49% Q Q OQRS OQRS Top2box % 17% 17% 26% 14% 28% 26% 33% 19% 19% 23% 21% P P MNPTU Bottom2box % 83% 83% 74% 86% 72% 74% 67% 81% 81% 77% 79% S S OQS S S Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Page 27

28 Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader 49% 15% 87% 63% 36% 48% 21% The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 VXYZA1 VYZA1 V VA % 12% 81% 42% 24% 36% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V % 90% 44% 60% 81% 71% 93% WXZ W WX W WXZ % 91% 63% 84% 84% 76% 83% WXZ W W W W Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader 51% 85% 13% 37% 64% 52% 79% Page 28

29 The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 WXYZ W WX WX WXZ % 88% 19% 58% 76% 64% 81% WXZ W W W WX % 10% 56% 40% 19% 29% 7% VXYZA1 VYA1 VA % 9% 37% 16% 16% 24% 17% VXYZA1 V V Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 2% 35% 8% 1% 3% 3% VXYZA1 VY Agree somewhat % 13% 52% 54% 36% 44% 18% VA1 VYA1 V VA1 Disagree somewhat % 25% 11% 27% 27% 30% 22% W W W Disagree very much % 59% 2% 10% 37% 23% 56% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Top2box Page 29

30 49% 15% 87% 63% 36% 48% 21% VXYZA1 VYZA1 V VA1 Bottom2box % 85% 13% 37% 64% 52% 79% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 2% 22% 4% 2% VXZ Agree somewhat % 9% 59% 38% 24% 34% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V Disagree somewhat % 27% 17% 43% 31% 35% 17% W VWA1 W Disagree very much % 62% 2% 15% 44% 29% 64% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Top2box % 12% 81% 42% 24% 36% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V Bottom2box % 88% 19% 58% 76% 64% 81% WXZ W W W WX Page 30

31 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 70% 10% 22% 56% 39% 71% WXZ W WX WX WXZ Agree somewhat % 20% 34% 38% 25% 31% 22% V V V Disagree somewhat % 5% 34% 31% 13% 22% 3% VYZA1 VYA1 VA1 Disagree very much % 4% 22% 8% 6% 7% 4% VXYZA1 Top2box % 90% 44% 60% 81% 71% 93% WXZ W WX W WXZ Bottom2box % 10% 56% 40% 19% 29% 7% VXYZA1 VYA1 VA1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other Page 31

32 (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Agree very much % 57% 11% 22% 36% 34% 28% WXYZA1 W W W Agree somewhat % 34% 52% 61% 48% 43% 56% V VZ V Disagree somewhat % 6% 26% 14% 10% 20% 14% VXY V V Disagree very much % 3% 10% 2% 7% 4% 3% VXZA1 Top2box % 91% 63% 84% 84% 76% 83% WXZ W W W W Bottom2box % 9% 37% 16% 16% 24% 17% VXYZA1 V V Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED Very likely % 9% 5% 5% 10% 6% 26% W VWXZ Page 32

33 Somewhat likely % 22% 10% 13% 20% 19% 27% WX W Not very likely % 30% 23% 23% 20% 24% 12% WA1 Not at all likely % 39% 62% 60% 51% 51% 35% VA1 VA1 V Top2box % 30% 15% 17% 30% 25% 53% WX W VWXZ Bottom2box % 70% 85% 83% 70% 75% 47% A1 VZA1 VA1 A1 Page 33