CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016

Transcription

1 CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 If the election for Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between Pat McCrory, the Republican, Roy Cooper, the Democrat, or Lon Cecil, the Libertarian? BANNER 1 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 15% 12% 18% 20% 14% 48% 52% 5% 12% 25% 23% 29% 10% 20% 15% 11% 22% 16% 33% 42% 25% **D/S (MCCRORY - COOPER) % -11% 20% 15% -4% 8% 16% 18% -6% -4% - 4% -8% 23% 10% 13% 32% -12% -14% 10% 69% -41% - BEF BE B BE BE I M jkm JKLM RS RS OPRST RS VW V TOTAL MCCRORY % 38% 53% 48% 43% 46% 49% 51% 40% 35% 39% 43% 41% 57% 42% 50% 62% 35% 35% 51% 78% 24% 39% B I jklm rs OpRS RS VW V TOTAL COOPER % 50% 33% 33% 47% 38% 32% 33% 46% 39% 39% 39% 49% 35% 33% 36% 30% 47% 50% 41% 10% 64% 39% CDfG CdG H ln q OPQ UW U TOTAL CECIL % 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 1% 2% 5% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 5% m MN TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 8% 13% 13% 6% 12% 17% 12% 10% 21% 15% 11% 8% 6% 18% 9% 6% 13% 11% 6% 8% 9% 17% be n qt UV DEFINITELY MCCRORY % 33% 45% 45% 34% 36% 47% 44% 34% 31% 35% 37% 31% 52% 35% 40% 58% 32% 29% 44% 68% 19% 34% b Be I jklm s OPRST S VW V PROBABLY MCCRORY % 6% 8% 3% 9% 10% 1% 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 10% 6% 7% 10% 4% 3% 6% 8% 11% 4% 5% g G G dg k qr Vw DEFINITELY COOPER % 45% 28% 28% 39% 32% 27% 30% 38% 39% 32% 33% 42% 31% 28% 33% 27% 41% 41% 35% 6% 58% 31% CDFG g H N q oq UW U PROBABLY COOPER % 5% 4% 6% 8% 7% 6% 4% 8% - 7% 6% 8% 4% 5% 3% 3% 6% 9% 6% 3% 7% 8% H J J J J pq u DEFINITELY CECIL % - 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% - 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% - 2% 1% 2% b Jn PROBABLY CECIL % 3% - 1% 4% - 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 3% - 1% 2% 2% - 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% cf CF M LEAN MCCRORY % - 2% - - 2% 6% 2% 1% 5% 6% 2% - - 5% 2% - 5% 1% - 3% 1% 1% BDE MN mn qt LEAN COOPER % - - 1% 2% - 2% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% % - 2% - - 1% 1% u

2 Continued Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C

3 CIVITAS INSTITUTE:NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 If the election for Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between Pat McCrory, the Republican, Roy Cooper, the Democrat, or Lon Cecil, the Libertarian? BANNER 1 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) LEAN CECIL % % 2% 1% - 5% - - 1% - 2% - 1% - 1% % HARD UNDECIDED % 8% 11% 11% 5% 8% 8% 9% 8% 11% 9% 8% 6% 6% 11% 8% 5% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 14% UV NAMED OTHER % % % REFUSED % - 2% - 1% - - 1% - - 1% 1% - - 1% - - 1% - - 1% 1%

4 Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C

5 CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 If the election for Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between Pat McCrory, the Republican, Roy Cooper, the Democrat, or Lon Cecil, the Libertarian? BANNER 2 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 16% 26% 14% 11% 22% 78% 26% 22% 47% 20% 73% 6% 49% 39% 4% 70% 30% **D/S (MCCRORY - COOPER) % 72% 64% -33% -46% 4% -5% 12% 4% -65% -24% 60% -61% 24% 12% 1% 16% -55% 13% -12% DEFG DEFG DEG DE I J JK Mo M R PR T TOTAL MCCRORY % 81% 75% 27% 21% 40% 37% 47% 45% 12% 27% 74% 11% 56% 48% 43% 53% 13% 50% 35% DEFG DEFG de E J JK M M R PR T TOTAL COOPER % 8% 11% 60% 67% 36% 42% 35% 41% 78% 51% 15% 72% 31% 36% 42% 36% 68% 37% 47% BCFG BCFG BC BC KL L NO PQ S TOTAL CECIL % 3% 4% 1% 2% 5% 4% 6% 2% 3% 5% 1% 4% 3% 4% 3% 1% 8% 3% 3% l q TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 8% 10% 10% 9% 19% 15% 13% 11% 6% 17% 9% 13% 10% 12% 11% 10% 6% 9% 15% BcE JL s DEFINITELY MCCRORY % 70% 65% 24% 17% 33% 34% 38% 39% 11% 23% 64% 9% 47% 48% 36% 45% 13% 43% 29% DEFG DEFG E E J JK M M R pr T PROBABLY MCCRORY % 11% 10% 4% 4% 7% 3% 8% 6% 2% 4% 11% 2% 9% - 6% 8% - 7% 5% deg dg JK MO R R DEFINITELY COOPER % 6% 6% 59% 57% 28% 35% 33% 34% 68% 44% 12% 61% 27% 36% 35% 32% 57% 31% 40% BCFG BCFG BC BC KL L NO pq s PROBABLY COOPER % 2% 5% 2% 10% 8% 7% 2% 7% 10% 7% 3% 11% 5% - 7% 5% 11% 6% 6% BD bd H L no O DEFINITELY CECIL % 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% - 2% - 3% 2% 1% O PROBABLY CECIL % 1% 2% - 1% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 3% - 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 5% 1% 2% l l LEAN MCCRORY % 3% 3% 2% - - 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% - 2% - - 1% 4% ef ef O qr S LEAN COOPER % - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 4% - 1% - 1% 1%

6 Continued Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C

7 CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 If the election for Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between Pat McCrory, the Republican, Roy Cooper, the Democrat, or Lon Cecil, the Libertarian? BANNER 2 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) LEAN CECIL % - - 1% - 2% 1% - 1% - 2% - - 1% % - 1% h mo HARD UNDECIDED % 5% 6% 6% 7% 16% 11% 11% 8% 5% 13% 6% 10% 7% 8% 9% 8% - 8% 10% BCDe JL R R NAMED OTHER % REFUSED % 1% - 1% - - 1% - - 1% % - -

8 Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C

9 Summary of Governor Ballot Trend BANNER 1 CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 15% 12% 18% 20% 14% 48% 52% 5% 12% 25% 23% 29% 10% 20% 15% 11% 22% 16% 33% 42% 25% jk K OR OR O O MAY 21-23, % -11% 20% 15% -4% 8% 16% 18% -6% -4% - 4% -8% 23% 10% 13% 32% -12% -14% 10% 69% -41% - BEF BE B BE BE I M jkm JKLM RS RS OPRST RS VW V MCCRORY % 38% 53% 48% 43% 46% 49% 51% 40% 35% 39% 43% 41% 57% 42% 50% 62% 35% 35% 51% 78% 24% 39% B I jklm rs OpRS RS VW V COOPER % 50% 33% 33% 47% 38% 32% 33% 46% 39% 39% 39% 49% 35% 33% 36% 30% 47% 50% 41% 10% 64% 39% CDfG CdG H ln q OPQ UW U CECIL % 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 1% 2% 5% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 5% m MN LEAN/UNDECIDED % 8% 13% 13% 6% 12% 17% 12% 10% 21% 15% 11% 8% 6% 18% 9% 6% 13% 11% 6% 8% 9% 17% be n qt UV APRIL 23-25, % -36% -4% -9% -3% -5% 10% - -18% -9% -14% -9% -14% -4% -1% -7% 10% -19% -17% -19% 53% -57% -13% B B B B BCDEF I KM prst rst OPRST VW V MCCRORY % 25% 37% 36% 39% 40% 45% 41% 32% 24% 32% 36% 36% 42% 35% 41% 50% 28% 33% 34% 69% 13% 31% b B B B I j r orst VW V COOPER % 61% 41% 45% 42% 45% 35% 41% 49% 33% 46% 45% 50% 47% 37% 47% 41% 46% 49% 53% 16% 70% 44% CDEFG h o O UW U CECIL % 4% 7% 7% 6% 2% 6% 4% 6% 11% 10% 4% 5% 1% 10% 1% - 9% 6% 3% 2% 6% 8% f ln PQt PQ PQ q U U LEAN/UNDECIDED % 8% 15% 13% 14% 12% 14% 12% 12% 31% 11% 15% 8% 8% 18% 11% 6% 16% 12% 9% 13% 10% 16% KlMN mn Qt q v

10 Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C

11 Summary of Governor Ballot Trend BANNER 2 CIVITAS INSTITUTE: NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 16% 26% 14% 11% 22% 78% 26% 22% 47% 20% 73% 6% 49% 39% 4% 70% 30% H r pr MAY 21-23, % 72% 64% -33% -46% 4% -5% 12% 4% -65% -24% 60% -61% 24% 12% 1% 16% -55% 13% -12% DEFG DEFG DEG DE I J JK Mo M R PR T MCCRORY % 81% 75% 27% 21% 40% 37% 47% 45% 12% 27% 74% 11% 56% 48% 43% 53% 13% 50% 35% DEFG DEFG de E J JK M M R PR T COOPER % 8% 11% 60% 67% 36% 42% 35% 41% 78% 51% 15% 72% 31% 36% 42% 36% 68% 37% 47% BCFG BCFG BC BC KL L NO PQ S CECIL % 3% 4% 1% 2% 5% 4% 6% 2% 3% 5% 1% 4% 3% 4% 3% 1% 8% 3% 3% l q LEAN/UNDECIDED % 8% 10% 10% 9% 19% 15% 13% 11% 6% 17% 9% 13% 10% 12% 11% 10% 6% 9% 15% BcE JL s APRIL 23-25, % 51% 56% -47% -63% -3% -28% -13% -8% -69% -40% 48% -62% 8% -15% -8% -4% -39% -8% -12% DEFG DEFG DEG E J JK MO M R pr MCCRORY % 68% 70% 19% 9% 37% 22% 34% 37% 8% 20% 66% 10% 46% 28% 35% 42% 21% 39% 30% DEFG DEFG E DEg E J JK MO M r R t COOPER % 17% 14% 65% 73% 40% 50% 47% 45% 77% 60% 18% 72% 37% 43% 43% 46% 59% 47% 43% BCFg BCFG BC BC KL L NO p CECIL % 3% 1% 3% 8% 8% 7% 8% 4% 6% 5% 3% 7% 4% 16% 7% 3% 3% 4% 8% BCd C c N q s LEAN/UNDECIDED % 12% 13% 11% 9% 15% 19% 11% 13% 9% 13% 13% 11% 13% 12% 14% 8% 17% 10% 18% e Q S

12 Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T N A T I O N A L R E S E A R C H I N C