Lots of shrugged shoulders in N.C. GOP races

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Lots of shrugged shoulders in N.C. GOP races Raleigh, N.C. There has been very little attention paid to any of the statewide Republican primaries in rth Carolina. So unlike in the Democratic gubernatorial field, no one in any of the GOP races has truly broken out of the pack since PPP last released a poll a week ago that is, other than Pat McCrory, who continues to have the gubernatorial nomination locked up. But the picture is becoming a bit clearer as the primary nears. Dale Folwell has inched ahead a bit in the lieutenant governor s race. He led over Dan Forest, Tony Gurley, and Grey Mills in the last poll, and now leads with 20% to Forest s 15%, Gurley s 11%, and Mills 10%. 40% are still undecided, down from 51%. Folwell has cut into Gurley s home turf (the Triangle) Gurley led him there previously, and that is now only Folwell has also racked up votes in his home, the Triad, upping his lead from 17 to 22 points over Forest. Forest, meanwhile, has taken a lead in the area code where most of the votes come from (Charlotte), moving from 11% to 22% there, with Folwell at 13% and Mills at 11%. Greg Dority has flipped places with Debra Goldman in the Auditor contest, but both are still in a dead heat. Dority has 18% to Goldman s 16% and Fern Shubert s 9%. The split was last time. Undecideds are down from 61% to 51%. Richard Morgan now has a quarter of the vote for Insurance Commissioner, with two others each at half that amount of support. He had 17% last week. Kenn Gardner continues to have a slight lead over the field for Secretary of State, with 20% to Ed Goodwin s 11%, A.J. Daoud s 9%, and Michael Beitler s 7%. Last time, it was John Tedesco is hanging onto the same slim edge over Richard Alexander for Public Instruction. Steve Troxler has increased his lead for renomination for Agriculture Secretary from to over Bill McManus. And Steve Royal has upped his lead over Frank Roche for Treasurer from to in the last month. PPP surveyed 486 likely rth Carolina Republican primary voters from April 27 th to 29 th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Public Policy Polling Phone: Web: information@publicpolicypolling.com

2 rth Carolina Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pat McCrory? Favorable...63% Unfavorable...12% t sure...25% The Republican candidates for Governor are Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul Wright. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Jim Harney... 4% Scott Jones... 2% Jim Mahan... 2% Pat McCrory...66% Charles Kenneth Moss... 0% Paul Wright... 2% Undecided...24% The Republican candidates for Lieutenant Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Dale Folwell...20% Dan Forest...15% Tony Gurley... 11% Grey Mills...10% Arthur Jason Rich... 3% Undecided...40% Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 The Republican candidates for State Auditor are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority, Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy Wright. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Joseph Hank DeBragga... 3% Greg Dority...18% Debra Goldman...16% Fern Shubert... 9% Rudy Wright... 3% Undecided...51% The Republican candidates for Agriculture Commissioner are Bill McManus and Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Bill McManus...17% Steve Troxler...48% Undecided...35% The Republican candidates for Insurance Commissioner are Mike Causey, James McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Mike Causey...12% James McCall...12% Richard Morgan...25% Undecided...51% The Republican candidates for Secretary of State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Michael Beitler... 7% A.J. Daoud... 9% Kenn Gardner...20% Ed Goodwin... 11% Undecided...52% Survey of 486 Republican primary voters

3 Q8 Q9 The Republican candidates for Superintendent of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander, Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Richard Alexander...13% Mark Crawford... 8% Ray Ernest Martin... 5% David Scholl... 6% John Tedesco...16% Undecided...52% The Republican candidates for State Treasurer are Frank Roche and Steve Royal. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Frank Roche...17% Steve Royal...27% Undecided...57% Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?...35%...50% t sure...16% Q11 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not? Are an Evangelical...64% Are not...36% Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? Very liberal... 2% Somewhat liberal... 4% Moderate...16% Somewhat...33% Very...45% Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...47% Man...53% Q14 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an independent, press 2. Republican...80% Independent...20% Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to 65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press to % 46 to % Older than % Q16 Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?...12%...88% Q17 Area Code % % % % % % Survey of 486 Republican primary voters

4 McCrory Favorability Favorable Unfavorable t sure Tea Party ID t sure 63% 67% 62% 58% 12% 11% 14% 5% 25% 22% 24% 37% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Tea Party ID t sure 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% - 66% 66% 66% 67% 0% 0% 0% - 2% 3% 2% - 24% 22% 24% 27% 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Tea Party ID t sure 20% 22% 20% 19% 15% 18% 15% 8% 11% 14% 9% 12% 10% 10% 11% 5% 3% 1% 5% 3% 40% 34% 40% 54% 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Tea Party ID t sure 3% 3% 2% 5% 18% 21% 18% 11% 16% 14% 20% 8% 9% 11% 8% 10% 3% 3% 3% 2% 51% 49% 48% 64%

5 Tea Party ID Tea Party ID t sure t sure 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus Steve Troxler 17% 20% 17% 7% 48% 48% 49% 46% 35% 32% 34% 47% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan 12% 13% 12% 9% 12% 10% 15% 8% 25% 27% 23% 23% 51% 50% 50% 60% 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodw in Tea Party ID t sure 7% 6% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 4% 20% 21% 20% 21% 11% 11% 12% 11% 52% 52% 51% 54% 2012 GOP Edu. Richard Alexander Mark Crawford Ray Ernest Martin David Scholl John Tedesco Tea Party ID t sure 13% 14% 14% 10% 8% 8% 9% 4% 5% 7% 4% 2% 6% 6% 6% 5% 16% 18% 14% 14% 52% 46% 52% 66%

6 Tea Party ID Evangelical? t sure Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not 2012 GOP Treas. Frank Roche Steve Royal 17% 18% 17% 12% 27% 27% 29% 19% 57% 54% 54% 69% McCrory Favorability Favorable Unfavorable t sure 63% 68% 55% 12% 10% 13% 25% 22% 32% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 66% 70% 60% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 4% 24% 22% 28% 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 20% 20% 20% 15% 17% 12% 11% 11% 13% 10% 12% 7% 3% 3% 3% 40% 37% 46%

7 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 3% 2% 4% 18% 17% 19% 16% 14% 20% 9% 10% 7% 3% 3% 2% 51% 53% 47% 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus Steve Troxler Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 17% 16% 18% 48% 50% 44% 35% 34% 38% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 12% 11% 13% 12% 11% 15% 25% 26% 22% 51% 52% 51% 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodw in Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 7% 6% 9% 9% 9% 8% 20% 21% 19% 11% 10% 13% 52% 52% 51%

8 Evangelical? Evangelical? Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not 2012 GOP Edu GOP Treas. Richard Alexander 13% 14% 12% Frank Roche 17% 16% 18% Mark Crawford 8% 8% 7% Steve Royal 27% 28% 25% Ray Ernest Martin 5% 5% 5% 57% 56% 57% David Scholl 6% 7% 4% John Tedesco 16% 14% 18% 52% 51% 53% Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal liberal Moderate McCrory Favorability Favorable 63% 53% 24% 40% 66% 72% Unfavorable 12% 20% 27% 24% 11% 6% t sure 25% 27% 49% 35% 23% 22% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Undecide d Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 4% - - 5% 4% 3% 2% - - 5% 2% 0% 2% - 4% 6% 2% 1% 66% 53% 29% 49% 68% 74% 0% - - 1% - 0% 2% - 6% 5% 1% 1% 24% 47% 61% 28% 22% 20%

9 2012 GOP LG Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Dale Folwell 20% 20% 13% 17% 19% 23% Dan Forest 15% - 13% 19% 13% 17% Tony Gurley 11% 10% 4% 8% 11% 13% Grey Mills 10% 20% 25% 10% 10% 8% Arthur Jason Rich 3% - 6% 4% 4% 3% Undecide d 40% 50% 39% 41% 43% 37% Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank 3% - - 2% 4% 3% DeBragga Greg Dority 18% - 13% 28% 14% 19% Debra Goldman 16% 30% 25% 23% 22% 8% Fern Shubert 9% 20% 17% 6% 8% 10% Rudy Wright 3% - - 4% 3% 3% Undecide d 51% 50% 46% 37% 49% 57% Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal liberal Moderate 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus 17% - 38% 25% 16% 14% Steve Troxler 48% 46% 29% 46% 49% 49% Undecide d 35% 54% 33% 29% 35% 37% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan Undecide d Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 12% 30% - 11% 12% 12% 12% - 42% 22% 14% 6% 25% 27% 17% 21% 26% 25% 51% 43% 42% 45% 48% 57%

10 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodwin Undecide d Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 7% - - 7% 9% 7% 9% 25% 17% 10% 10% 7% 20% 13% 35% 21% 22% 19% 11% 8% 10% 16% 10% 11% 52% 54% 38% 47% 49% 56% 2012 GOP Edu. Richard Alexander Mark Crawford Ray Ernest Martin David Scholl John Tedesco Undecide d Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 13% 8% 13% 21% 14% 10% 8% 25% 6% 13% 9% 5% 5% 8% 17% 6% 3% 5% 6% 13% 13% 6% 7% 4% 16% - 4% 10% 16% 19% 52% 46% 48% 43% 50% 58% 2012 GOP Treas. Frank Roche Steve Royal Undecide d Ideology Very Som ew hat liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 17% 8% 21% 15% 19% 16% 27% 38% 42% 40% 28% 20% 57% 54% 38% 46% 53% 65% Gender Wom an Man McCrory Favorability Favorable 63% 60% 66% Unfavorable 12% 8% 15% t sure 25% 32% 19%

11 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Gender Wom an Man 4% 2% 5% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 66% 63% 69% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 24% 30% 18% 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Gender Wom an Man 20% 19% 21% 15% 15% 16% 11% 12% 11% 10% 7% 12% 3% 2% 4% 40% 45% 36% 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Gender Wom an Man 3% 2% 4% 18% 15% 21% 16% 15% 18% 9% 7% 11% 3% 2% 3% 51% 59% 44% Gender Wom an Man 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus 17% 13% 20% Steve Troxler 48% 44% 52% 35% 44% 28%

12 Gender Gender Wom an Man Wom an Man 2012 GOP Insurance 2012 GOP State Mike Causey 12% 12% 12% Michael Beitler 7% 8% 7% James McCall 12% 9% 15% A.J. Daoud 9% 6% 12% Richard Morgan 25% 17% 31% Kenn Gardner 20% 16% 25% 51% 62% 42% Ed Goodw in 11% 10% 12% 52% 60% 44% 2012 GOP Edu. Richard Alexander Mark Crawford Ray Ernest Martin David Scholl John Tedesco Gender Wom an Man 13% 14% 13% 8% 7% 9% 5% 3% 7% 6% 4% 7% 16% 12% 19% 52% 60% 45% 2012 GOP Treas. Frank Roche Steve Royal Gender Wom an Man 17% 10% 22% 27% 21% 32% 57% 69% 46%

13 McCrory Favorability Favorable Unfavorable t sure Party Republican Independent 63% 64% 58% 12% 10% 17% 25% 25% 26% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Party Republican Independent 4% 4% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 66% 68% 59% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 24% 21% 33% 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Party Republican Independent 20% 23% 10% 15% 16% 11% 11% 11% 12% 10% 10% 11% 3% 3% 4% 40% 37% 52% 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Party Republican Independent 3% 3% 1% 18% 17% 21% 16% 16% 17% 9% 10% 5% 3% 2% 5% 51% 51% 51%

14 Party Party Republican Independent Republican Independent 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus Steve Troxler 17% 17% 16% 48% 50% 40% 35% 33% 44% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 25% 26% 18% 51% 49% 59% 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodw in Party Republican Independent 7% 7% 10% 9% 10% 6% 20% 21% 17% 11% 12% 6% 52% 50% 61% 2012 GOP Edu. Richard Alexander Mark Crawford Ray Ernest Martin David Scholl John Tedesco Party Republican Independent 13% 15% 6% 8% 7% 11% 5% 5% 3% 6% 6% 7% 16% 15% 18% 52% 51% 55%

15 Party Age 2012 GOP Treas. Republican Independent McCrory Favorability 18 to to 65 Older than 65 Frank Roche 17% 15% 23% Favorable 63% 54% 67% 66% Steve Royal 27% 29% 18% Unfavorable 12% 15% 13% 7% 57% 56% 59% t sure 25% 31% 21% 27% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 4% 6% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 66% 53% 71% 72% 0% - 1% 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 24% 30% 21% 21% 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 20% 23% 17% 21% 15% 8% 23% 12% 11% 11% 11% 13% 10% 17% 7% 7% 3% 6% 1% 3% 40% 36% 40% 43%

16 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 3% 5% 1% 4% 18% 21% 18% 15% 16% 21% 16% 12% 9% 8% 10% 9% 3% 2% 3% 4% 51% 44% 51% 56% 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus Steve Troxler Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 17% 22% 15% 15% 48% 45% 52% 46% 35% 34% 33% 39% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 12% 9% 15% 10% 12% 18% 10% 9% 25% 29% 22% 24% 51% 44% 53% 57% 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodw in Age 18 to to 65 Older than 65 7% 6% 9% 6% 9% 13% 7% 8% 20% 23% 16% 23% 11% 11% 13% 9% 52% 47% 54% 53%

17 Age Age 18 to to 65 Older than to to 65 Older than GOP Edu GOP Treas. Richard Alexander 13% 17% 10% 14% Frank Roche 17% 20% 13% 18% Mark Crawford 8% 11% 7% 7% Steve Royal 27% 29% 25% 26% Ray Ernest Martin 5% 8% 3% 5% 57% 51% 62% 56% David Scholl 6% 9% 6% 4% John Tedesco 16% 12% 19% 15% 52% 43% 56% 55% McCrory Favorability Favorable Unfavorable t sure Already Voted? 63% 67% 62% 12% 17% 11% 25% 15% 27% 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Already Voted? 4% 5% 4% 2% - 2% 2% 2% 2% 66% 64% 67% 0% - 0% 2% 6% 1% 24% 23% 24%

18 2012 GOP LG Dale Folw ell Dan Forest Tony Gurley Grey Mills Arthur Jason Rich Already Voted? 20% 19% 20% 15% 32% 13% 11% 4% 12% 10% 22% 8% 3% 9% 2% 40% 14% 43% 2012 GOP Auditor Joseph Hank De Bragga Greg Dority De bra Goldman Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Already Voted? 3% 4% 3% 18% 18% 18% 16% 23% 15% 9% 23% 7% 3% 7% 2% 51% 26% 54% 2012 GOP Ag Bill McManus Steve Troxler Already Voted? 17% 29% 15% 48% 50% 48% 35% 22% 37% 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan Already Voted? 12% 23% 10% 12% 17% 11% 25% 29% 24% 51% 31% 54%

19 Already Voted? Already Voted? 2012 GOP State 2012 GOP Edu. Michael Beitler 7% 15% 6% Richard Alexander 13% 12% 13% A.J. Daoud 9% 8% 9% Mark Crawford 8% 12% 7% Kenn Gardner 20% 37% 18% Ray Ernest Martin 5% 9% 4% Ed Goodw in 11% 13% 11% David Scholl 6% 9% 6% 52% 27% 55% John Tedesco 16% 22% 15% 52% 36% 54% 2012 GOP Treas. Frank Roche Steve Royal Already Voted? 17% 41% 13% 27% 27% 27% 57% 33% 60% Area Code McCrory Favorability Favorable 63% 67% 67% 77% 58% 49% 52% Unfavorable 12% 14% 2% 12% 10% 10% 21% t sure 25% 19% 31% 12% 32% 41% 26%

20 2012 GOP Gov Jim Harney Scott Jones Jim Mahan Pat McCrory Charles Kenneth Moss Paul Wright Undecided Area Code % 2% 3% 3% 5% - 6% 2% 5% % 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% 6% 1% 66% 71% 75% 76% 60% 57% 54% 0% 3% - - 1% - - 2% - 2% - 2% - 5% 24% 17% 20% 16% 30% 37% 28% Area Code GOP LG Dale Folwell 20% 13% 36% 13% 16% 19% 17% Dan Forest 15% 19% 14% 22% 18% 8% 9% Tony Gurley 11% 6% 5% 3% 7% 12% 31% Grey Mills 10% 5% 13% 11% 12% 8% 7% Arthur Jason Rich 3% 7% - 3% 7% 4% 3% Undecided 40% 50% 32% 47% 40% 48% 33% Area Code GOP Auditor Joseph Hank 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 6% De Bragga Greg Dority 18% 21% 18% 18% 6% 15% 25% De bra Goldm an Fern Shubert Rudy Wright Undecided 16% 21% 14% 12% 17% 3% 26% 9% 6% 10% 12% 14% 11% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 9% 4% 1% 51% 48% 55% 53% 52% 64% 39% Area Code GOP Ag Bill McManus 17% 10% 12% 20% 13% 19% 22% Steve Troxler 48% 54% 64% 33% 49% 28% 53% Undecided 35% 36% 24% 46% 38% 54% 25%

21 2012 GOP Insurance Mike Causey James McCall Richard Morgan Undecided Area Code % 10% 13% 15% 2% 17% 12% 12% 17% 12% 10% 13% 10% 13% 25% 14% 25% 21% 34% 27% 24% 51% 60% 49% 54% 50% 46% 51% 2012 GOP State Michael Beitler A.J. Daoud Kenn Gardner Ed Goodwin Undecided Area Code % 7% 10% 5% 7% 2% 10% 9% 12% 11% 11% 8% 12% 3% 20% 26% 19% 25% 25% 10% 17% 11% 8% 8% 15% 10% 13% 13% 52% 47% 53% 45% 50% 62% 57% Area Code GOP Edu. Richard Alexander 13% 11% 18% 12% 15% 19% 8% Mark Crawford Ray Ernest Martin David Scholl John Tedesco Undecided 8% 4% 6% 7% 11% 4% 12% 5% - 6% 7% 6% 4% 3% 6% 3% 5% 10% 7% 3% 4% 16% 25% 6% 6% 6% 15% 39% 52% 56% 59% 57% 54% 56% 34% Area Code GOP Treas. Frank Roche 17% 16% 15% 18% 13% 17% 20% Steve Royal 27% 20% 30% 28% 32% 22% 23% Undecided 57% 64% 55% 54% 56% 61% 57%