Update on the Federal Political Landscape

Transcription

1 Update on the Federal Political Landscape Contradictory Signals from an Uncertain Public May,

2 Methodology Telephone survey of the general public,326 interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 8 years of age and older Interview period: April 26-28,2004 National results valid within 2.7 percentage points, 9 times out of 20 The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

3 All Survey Results General Outlook

4 Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 04, ½ sample Satisfaction with direction of government Q: All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? Jan- 99 Apr- 99 Jul- 99 Oct- 99 Jan- 00 Apr- 00 Jul- 00 Oct- 00 Jan- 0 Apr- 0 Jul- 0 Oct- 0 Jan- 02 Apr- 02 Jul- 02 Oct- 02 Jan- 03 Apr- 03 Jul- 03 Oct- 03 Jan- 04 Apr- 04 Right direction Wrong direction

5 Significant regional variation in satisfaction with direction of government Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 04, ½ sample Q: All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? Overall B.C Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic DK/NR Wrong direction Right direction

6 Satisfaction with direction of country Q: All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? Apr Feb DK/NR Wrong direction Right direction

7 Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 04, ½ sample Satisfaction with direction of country by region Q: All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? Overall B.C Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic DK/NR Wrong direction Right direction

8 Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 04, ½ sample Economic confidence over the short-term Q: Thinking ahead over the next year or so, do you think your personal financial situation will be better or worse than it is today? Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Better Worse

9 Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 04,/2 sample Economic confidence over the long-term Q: Thinking ahead over the next five years or so, do you think your personal financial situation will be better or worse than it is today? Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Better Worse

10 All Survey Results The Sponsorship Scandal

11 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Sponsorship controversy registering with voters Q: Do you recall hearing or seeing anything about the recent controversy over the federal government's sponsorship program? EKOS Feb. 04 Yes, clearly 62 78% recall 76% Yes, vaguely 6 No 22 24%

12 Public views scandal as typical of government problems, however, lean is definitely to worse Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Q: And which of the following best characterizes you personal view of the sponsorship scandal? Would you say it is EKOS Feb. 04 the worst government scandal I can recall 22 9% worse than other government scandals 24 2% bad, but no worse than other government scandals 47 52% not a particularly bad problem 5 6% DK/NR 3 2%

13 Public mildly comforted by sharing of information Q: How adequate do you feel the information made available through sources such as the Auditor General, the Parliamentary Committee and media reports is in helping you to form a rough judgment about the sponsorship program? Apr DK/NR Not adequate Somewhat adequate Adequate

14 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Liberals increasingly being written off Q: Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statement. I'm so disturbed by problems with ethics and accountability that I simply won't vote for the Liberals in the next election Apr Feb DK/NR Disagree Neither Agree

15 Election Issues & the Competitive All Survey Positioning Resultsof the Parties

16 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Social issues still top public agenda Q: Which of the following do you think will be the most important issue for the next federal election? EKOS Feb. 04 Social issues like health and education 5 5% The economy, jobs and growth 22 9% Issues like ethics and accountability 4 8% Fiscal issues like taxes and debt % DK/NR 2 2%

17 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Regional variations in issue priority Q: Which of the following do you think will be the most important issue for the next federal election? National BC ALB PRA ONT QUE ATL Social issues (health, education) The economy (jobs & growth) Ethics and accountability Fiscal issues (taxes)

18 Liberals enjoy modest advantage overall Q: And thinking about which federal party do you feel offers the best solutions to address it?* LPC CPC NDP BQ Green None DK/NR social issues (health, education) the economy (jobs & growth) fiscal issues (taxes) ethics and accountability all issues** Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04 *each respondent was asked to name the party they felt was best able to address the issue they considered the top priority for the next election **represents collapse of responses for each of the issues

19 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Martin still seen as best suited for role of PM, but Harper gaining ground Q: Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister for Canada? [unprompted] Paul Martin Stephen Harper Jack Layton Jean Chretien Joe Clark Belinda Stronach Sheila Copps Ralph Klein Gilles Duceppe Other DK/NR EKOS Feb EKOS May

20 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Rating the federal leaders Martin on top Q: Thinking about the leaders of the major federal parties, which leader do you think? Martin Harper Layton Duceppe None DK/NR is the most decisive 4% 8% 0% 6% 8% 7% has the best vision for the future of the country 35% 9% % 7% 0% 9% best understands the concerns of people like you 27% 9% 8% 8% 4% 4%

21 Current Voting Intentions and All Survey Results Expectations for Coming Election

22 Base Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Apr. 04, n=,28 Federal voting intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? EKOS Feb. 04 Election % 4.8% 40.9% 28.5% 3.9% 37.7% CA: 25.5% PC: 2.2% 6.% 4.6% % 9.% 0.7 0% 25% 50% 75% 00% Undecided/declined:.8% Will not vote: 2.%

23 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Apr. 04, n=,28 Long-term trend Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 00% Election 97 Election 00 75% 50% 25% 0% Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-0 Dec-0 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Liberal PC NDP Canadian Alliance CPC

24 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Apr. 04, n=,28 Federal voting intentions: regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?* 00% 75% 50% 25% 0% BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 39% 29% 33% 47% 35% 57% CPC 30% 54% 34% 33% 8% 3% NDP 29% 6% 33% 8% 3% 2% BQ 0% 0% 0% 0% 52% 0% Other 2% % 0% 2% 3% 0% Liberal CPC NDP BQ Other

25 NDP and CPC tied for second choice Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice? EKOS Feb % 24% 23% 23% 9% 5% 4% 4% Other % 0% 25% 50% 75% 00% Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Undecided/declined:3% Will not vote/change mind: %

26 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Most say Liberals will win next election Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? EKOS Feb % 63% 3% 7% 4% 3% 2% 3% DK/NR % 0% 25% 50% 75% 00%

27 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Next government thought to be a minority Q: Do you think it will be a minority or a majority government? Minority 6 EKOS Feb % Majority 33 40% DK/NR 6 6%

28 Base: All Canadians; Apr. 04, n=,326 Most prefer later election Q: Which of the following statements is closer to your own point of view? Some people say that Paul Martin should call an election as soon as possible in order to turn the page and get a fresh mandate to govern Others say that, given current issues, Paul Martin should first clear the air and demonstrate that he is capable of governing the country, then call an election in the fall or winter. DK/NR

29 For more information: Frank Graves, President All Survey Results Andrew Sullivan,Vice President t: