POLITICAL MONITOR. January Contacts:

Transcription

1 POLITICAL MONITOR January 15 Contacts: Harry.Carr@ipsos.com

2 Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those certain to vote 3 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting intention: 81% All certain to vote: 61% Labour Conservative Lib Dem 11% 7% 5% 35% 8% 6% 11% 33% UKIP Greens 8% 8% Other 34% 34% Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = -1 Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15, all certain to vote = 617

4 Voting Intentions April 04 January 15 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 10 General Election 34% 33% 10 0 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-14 Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 Oct-07 Jul-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 11% 8% 8% Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 08; c. 500 British adults thereafter

5 How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their intention to vote? March 08 to January 15 5 % of supporters Absolutely certain to vote 10 General Election 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0% Labour Conservative 70% 64% Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 08; c. 500 British adults thereafter

6 Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

7 Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 7 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? % % Net Satisfaction Swing from December 14 David Cameron Nick Clegg Ed Miliband Nigel Farage The Government Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % satisfied and % dissatisfied

8 % satisfied Satisfaction with Party leaders March 08 January 14 8 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is running the country / doing his job as? General Election Brown Cameron Farage 41% 35% Miliband 26% 25% Clegg 0 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

9 Net satisfaction Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 9 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BROWN Base: c.1,000 British adults each month MAJOR BLAIR Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone

10 David Cameron (satisfaction) 10 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? January 15 January 07 January 15 Don t know 6% % 40 52% Net = -11 Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15

11 David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 11 January 15 January 07 January 15 Don t know 15% 4% % 10 0 Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone Base: 291 Conservative supporters 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15

12 Net satisfaction Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders ( ) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as leader of the Party? 12 BLAIR ( ) HOWARD (03-05) CAMERON (05-10) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (10-15) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) HAGUE ( ) Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone

13 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 13 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 15 January 11 January 15 Don t know 13% 26% % Net = Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15

14 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 15 January 11 January 15 Don t know 8% % 48% Net = +3 Base: 256 Labour supporters 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15

15 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 15 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? January 15 January 09 January 15 Don t know 10% 25% % 0 Net = -39 Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15

16 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? 16 January 15 January 09 January 15 Don t know 42% 9% 50% Net = +8 Note: Data collected prior to January 08 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 08 was via telephone Base: 68 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15. N.B. small base size indicative only

17 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) 17 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? All March 13 January 15 Don t know 16% 35% % Net = Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th 13 th January 15

18 Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? 18 UKIP supporters March 13 January 15 Don t know 7% 3% 89% Net = +82 Base: 83 UKIP supporters,11 th -13 th January 15. N.B. small base size indicative only

19 The economy

20 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Get worse December 14 Don t know 6% 26% 38% Improve Stay the same Get worse 30 Stay the same 30% EOI = Improve Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15

21 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Index (get better minus get worse) The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index 21 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

22 15 General Election

23 Have the voters decided yet? 23 Have you definitely decided to vote for the Conservative Party/ Labour Party/ Liberal Democrats/ Greens/ UKIP/ SNP/Plaid Cymru or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? August 14 January 15 56% May change mind 43% Definitely decided 51% May change mind 2% don t know 2% don t know 47% Definitely decided Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15

24 Which issues will be very important when voters cast their ballots? Top four issues Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 24 January 15 September 14 Healthcare/NHS/hospitals 29% 46% Managing the economy/economic situation 31% 33% Asylum and immigration 27% 30% Education/schools % 23% Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15

25 Which issues will be very important when voters cast their ballots? Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 25 Sept 14 Healthcare/NHS/hospitals 46% 29% Managing the economy/economic situation 33% 31% Asylum and immigration 27% 30% Education/schools % 23% Unemployment Europe/EU Taxation Benefits 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 8% 13% Housing Foreign policy/foreign affairs Pensions 5% 5% 5% 5% 12% 6% Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11 th -13 th January 15 Only showing answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results