Acceptance, backlash or revolution: how did the public respond to five years of coalition government? Naomi Jones

Transcription

1 Acceptance, backlash or revolution: how did the public respond to five years of coalition government? Naomi Jones 7 th July 2015

2 Talk outline Consider the attitudinal changes we might have expected over last 5 years Look at what shifts actually occurred in following areas: Attitudes to welfare Attitudes to the NHS Attitudes to Britain s membership of Europe Reflect on why these changes occurred in each case and consider where attitudes might go next. 1

3 The last five years.

4 Some notable characteristics of the last 5 years Large cuts to public spending Wholesale reform of the benefits system Radical reform of the NHS Rise of UKIP and heightened European membership debate Scottish independence referendum Same Sex Couples Marriage Act passed 3

5 Attitudes to the death penalty 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% For some crimes death penalty is appropriate 0% Agree (Agree strongly or Agree) Neither Disagree (Disagree or Disagree strongly) 4

6 Support for gay marriage 100% Gay or lesbian couples should have the right to marry one another if they want to 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agree Disagree 5

7 What we expected A backlash against the cuts or at least appetite for increased tax and spend Concern or dissatisfaction about the NHS given the level of changes Increased Euroscepticism on the back of UKIP s meteoric rise and political calls for a referendum/renegotiation of powers in Europe 6

8 What we saw: Welfare

9 What we saw: Tax and spend 100% Attitudes to taxation and spending on health, education and social benefits, , and public spending as a percentage of GDP 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase taxes/spend more Reduce taxes/spend less Keep taxes/spend same Public spending % GDP 8

10 What we saw: Welfare 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Agree government should spend more money on welfare benefits 0%

11 Why not as expected? Attitudes to benefits system: A majority of people (59%) in Britain believe that most unemployed people in their area could find a job if they really wanted one. More than half (52%) think that benefits for the unemployed are too high and discourage work. And although 56% think the current benefits system supports people on low pay, only 18% of people believe that the benefits system effectively encourages people to move off benefits. But is there also just a broader public acceptance of austerity? 10

12 What we saw: NHS

13 What we saw: NHS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Satisfaction with the NHS, % Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied 12

14 What we saw: NHS Satisfaction with the NHS by party id 64% 67% 69% 67% 68% 56% Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat

15 NHS funding options If the NHS needed more money, which of the following do you think you would be prepared to accept? 24% 27% 17% 14% 12% 3% Separate tax Pay more through current tax Pay 10 for GP visit Pay for non-medical cost End exceptions Live within its budget 14 Base: 971

16 What we saw: Europe

17 Should we stay or go? 50% Attitudes to Britain's relationship with the European Union 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stay in EU but reduce its powers Leave the EU Leave things as are Stay in EU and increase its powers Work for single European government 16

18 Where next? Welfare The new government has announced a further round of cuts and they may represent tipping point on public acceptance of austerity But it s clear that there are still fundamental concerns about the benefits system and its efficacy NHS Government will need to be brave and find a potentially controversial solution to the funding crisis EU even though we re highly Eurosceptic, when it comes to the crunch we re a long way from a vote to withdraw, unless there s a wildcard. 17

19 Contact Naomi Jones Co-Head Social Attitudes T E. /NatCenSocialResearch