Political Climate & Its Potential Impact on Trade OCTOBER 27, 2016

Transcription

1 Political Climate & Its Potential Impact on Trade OCTOBER 27, 2016

2 Americans Attitude Towards Trade 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 2

3 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 3

4 The Candidates on Trade General Position I believe in smart trade. Pro-American trade. Trade that has labor and environmental standards, that s not a race to the bottom but tries to lift up not only American workers but also workers around the world. It s important that we enforce the agreements we have Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 4

5 The Candidates on Trade General Position I don t mind free trade. I m a free trader, I m a very conservative person. They say: He can t be conservative, he doesn t believe in free trade. I don t believe in free trade. I believe in really, really smart trade, where we can come out on top that s what I believe in. All right? 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 5

6 Clinton: 3 rd Debate We're going to have trade agreements that we enforce. That's why I'm going to have a trade prosecutor for the first time in history. And we're going to enforce those agreements 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 6

7 Trump: 3 rd Debate So my plan -- we're going to renegotiate trade deals. We're going to have a lot of free trade. We're going to have free trade, more free trade than we have right now. But we have horrible deals. I am going to renegotiate NAFTA. And if I can't make a great deal -- then we're going to terminate NAFTA and we're going to create new deals. We're going to have trade, but we're going -- we're going to terminate it, we're going to make a great trade deal Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 7

8 TPP What is it and where are we? Region represents: 40% of global trade $28 trillion of global GDP Agreement Signed 02/04/16 Draft Implementing Bill Pending Presidential action 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 8

9 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 9

10 The Candidates on Trade - TPP I hoped [the TPP] would be the gold standard In looking at it, it didn't meet my standards. My standards for more new, good jobs for Americans, for raising wages for Americans. And I want to make sure that I can look into the eyes of any middle-class American and say, this will help raise your wages. And I concluded I could not Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 10

11 The Candidates on Trade - TPP The TPP is a horrible deal. It is a deal that is going to lead to nothing but trouble. It's a deal that was designed for China to come in, as they always do, through the back door and totally take advantage of everyone. It's 5,600 pages long, so complex that nobody's read it. This is one of the worst trade deals. And I would, yes, rather not have it. We're losing now over $500 billion in terms of imbalance with China, $75 billion a year imbalance with Japan Currency manipulation is not even discussed in the agreement Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 11

12 The Candidates on Trade China China [has] benefited greatly from the system the US had helped create, including their membership in the World Trade Organization, and now they need to take their share of responsibility Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 12

13 The Candidates on Trade - China We talk about free trade. It's not free trade; it's stupid trade. China dumps everything that they have over here. No tax, no anything. We can't get into China. The best manufacturers, when they get in[to China], they have to pay a tremendous tax. I would do a tax the tax should be 45 percent. That would be a tax that would be an equivalent thing to some of the kind of, you know, devaluations they've done." 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 13

14 The Candidates on Trade T-TIP Both Candidates have stated they are against the TPP as it currently stands. The T-TIP is based on similar principles and provisions. Growing opposition in the EU and the Brexit are calling into question the possibility of a T-TIP 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 14

15 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 15

16 2016 Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A. All rights reserved. 16

17 Thank You! Nicole Bivens Collinson President, International Trade & Government Relations