Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks"

Transcription

1 Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks December 7, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a senior investment strategy advisor to Wisdom Tree Funds. His book, Stocks for the Long Run, now in its fifth edition, is widely recognized as one of the best books on investing. It is available via the link below. He is a regular columnist for Kiplinger s, a Market Master on CNBC and regularly appears on Bloomberg, NPR, CNN and other national and international networks I spoke with Jeremy on Monday, November 30th. In our interview on November 24 of last year, you said the fair value of the S&P 500 was approximately 2,300. On that day the S&P closed at 2,064 and on Friday it closed at 2,090, which is a 1.2% gain. Now that s short of your forecast, but in fairness, the consensus at that time was considerably more bearish than you were forecasting. What happened that you did not expect? Outside of a recessionary period, I have never seen a shortfall of earnings relative to estimates as sharp as we have had this year. We had a total collapse in earnings. At this time last year, the estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings were between $120 and $125. Now, those earnings are coming in at approximately $106 to $107. This is an unprecedented decline. It happened because of the collapse in oil prices and the strength of the dollar. That has taken $15 off of S&P earnings. No one thought oil would go down so far. When people ask, Well, isn t lower oil good for the U.S? The answer is, Yes. Lower oil is good for the U.S. In fact, even a higher dollar, everything equal, is good for the U.S. It increases purchasing power. It lowers the price of imports and it helps the consumer. But the problem is the S&P is not just a U.S. Index. With 40% to 45% of its profits earned abroad, a heavy energy sector and an industrial sector that supplies to the energy sector, anything that pounds energy is going to pound the S&P. That s why the return on stocks fell so sharply from what I had predicted. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 Can we expect a bounce back next year? What is the fair value for the S&P 500? S&P 500 operating earnings estimates are about $125. That was way too bullish a year ago. I think that s still probably too bullish. But I don t think $120 is necessarily off the table because outside of the energy sector we did have a good 7% to 8% growth in earnings. All we need is for oil to stabilize at the $40 to $50 level and the dollar to stabilize at $1.05 to $1.10 for the euro for us to get a nice snap back in the earnings. If we get an earnings recovery, then we will have a one-year delay of my forecast last year. Reaching 2,300 for S&P 500 is definitely a possibility by the end of The drop off in earnings was to some degree offset by an increase in PE multiples. Yes, P-E ratios have risen because of the anticipation of a bounce back in earnings. We have PEs that are pretty elevated. Based just on this year s operating earnings, we are at about 19. As I did last year, I m going to say that in the low-interest-rate environment we are in, a multiple of 18 to 20 could be considered a fair market value. If you apply that multiple to an earnings bounce back you get 2,300 for 2016 on the S&P. I want to be clear that you are using operating earnings and not reported earnings. That is correct. You and I have discussed which is a better measure, operating or reported. S&P operating earnings are extremely conservative and they are much lower than the IBES estimates of earnings. Actually, S&P operating earnings are about the most conservative operating earnings out there. At 2015 estimates of $106, that gives us a PE multiple of about a You ve got a lot of write-downs, especially in the energy sector in this year s earnings. But when I say 18 to 20 times earnings, I m talking about a conservative measure of the operating earnings such as Standard and Poor s uses. The question that all investors are asking is whether the Fed is going to increase interest rates when it meets in December. You said last year that you believe we are in a permanently lower interest-rate environment. Has your view changed at all on rates? No it hasn t. I said last year that if oil prices continue to go down, the Fed hike would be delayed until possibly the end of this year. It is a virtual certainty that we will have our first hike in December. But we will still have permanently lower rates. Last year, I said we are going to see an average 10-year TIPS rates at 1.5% in the next several years and average Fed funds rate of 2%. That was way below estimates last year, but now is becoming a much more accepted forecast. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting started out by indicating that The Fed staff thinks that the new-neutral Fed funds rate is going to be 2%. That is a huge change from what they had been anticipating. They had been saying that the long-term Fed funds rate is going to be 3.5%. So the Fed Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

3 staff believes that we are in a permanently low interest-rate environment. Now the Fed staff is distinct from the FOMC members who make decisions, but the staff s research is very influential. Last year you also said that the new long-term yield on the 10-year Treasury bond would be 3.5%, but you didn t say when we would reach that level. If you take the 1.5% in TIPS projection and if the Fed hits their 2% inflation target, then when you add the two together you get my 3.5%. But we are not at 2% inflation, and we are not at 1.5% TIPS yet. The 10-year TIPS right now is at only 60 basis points. We can expect some increase. What is your forecast for inflation? We have been seeing some fairly positive news on the job-creation front, but we still have depressed commodity prices. Yes, very depressed. Last year I said one of my worries was whether we would get job shortages that might force up the price of labor. Unemployment is down to 5%, which is the realm at which the Fed says is long-term full-employment level at which wages do begin rising. We ve seen some increase in wages but nothing scary yet. I am not worried about inflation next year. I don t see any big blow up. But if we are going to see some price pressures, it will be on the wage front. I said last year that I hoped we would see an increase in the participation rate. Well, we certainly have not. We are seeing declines in the participation rate. We are adding to the labor force only 50,000 to, at most, 100,000 people a month and we are creating nearly 200,000 jobs. This is what is causing the decline in the unemployment rate and will ultimately put pressure on labor costs. One more question related to equity valuations. What is your take on what has been going on with share repurchases? How does that factor into valuations? I m a fan of share repurchases. It gets a bad rap in the press. Let s face the facts. Firms don t need to put their earnings into expanding their plant and equipment and capacity. They are easily selling all that they can produce. There are no shortages. So what are they going to spend their earnings on? There is no persuasive new technology that they have to acquire. So I say return it to the shareholders. Given our tax system, which mitigates against dividends as opposed to capital gains, share buybacks are a very tax-efficient way to return value to shareholders. It is much better for companies to repurchase shares than waste the money buying other firms or plunging into some other activity or investment that isn t in their core competencies. I would love firms to pay more dividends. And we have seen dramatic increases in dividends this year, many more than 10%. But firms say, I want to get this money back to the shareholders. Dividends are Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 taxed at 23.8%, but I can do it with share repurchases, which are deferred capital gains that have a lower effective tax. Does it concern you that a lot of those share repurchases have been funded through debt? Much that is funded through debt does not have it be. One of the reasons is that, because of our tax system, money earned abroad is not being brought back. With interest rates so low, companies are taking out debt. Look at the basic facts. Let s say the PE is 20, and therefore we are earning 5% on our equity. Of that, 2% is goes to dividends. At most, 1% goes to expanding plant and equipment. So 2% is from buybacks from free cash flow. The average firm does not need to float debt to buy back shares. They may be issuing debt for tax reasons, but that debt is not the ultimate source of the cash needed for buybacks. We are largely financed by the cash flows of the corporations. Do you expect the dollar to remain strong against the currencies of our trading partners? Yes, although some people think the dollar will experience a huge appreciation because European policymakers are sending their interest rates lower while we in the U.S. are moving in the opposite direction. But a lot of this is already built into the exchange rate. The dollar is pretty high now. I went to Europe in September, and it was the first time ever that that Europe was cheap. Last year you said that China, Russia and the emerging markets would reward investors over the long term. I was clearly too early with that call. A lot of the decline in EM equities is, of course, tied to the unprecedented commodity price collapse. Who would ve believed that oil could be $40 or lower? And it is not just oil. Look at copper and many other metals. Unfortunately many of the emerging markets are tied to those raw materials. But one country that definitely is not is India. It is growing at 8% and stands to benefit from lower commodity prices. But the collapse of commodity prices has really hurt other countries. Commodities have likely gone down as much as they are going to because there is so much bearishness in this area. I believe that emerging markets do have value. Three to five years out that sector is going to be rewarding. Yes, I said that last year, and I know 2015 wasn t rewarding at all. But we know that these markets are volatile in the short term. Again, we don t need oil prices to go all the way back up; we just need them to stabilize to give value to many of these stocks. Is the weakness and commodities driven primarily by China? Has China lost control of its economy? A lot of the weakness is driven by China, but to say China has lost control of its economy is pretty Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 extreme. China s growth is going to be at least in the 3% to 5% range. Forget their 6% or 7% forecasts. But even 3% is still twice the U.S. level and three times the European level. But yes, the decline in commodity demand is primarily driven by China. The other factor leading to the commodity price declines is the general strength of the dollar because oil and other commodities prices are quoted in dollars. The China slowdown plays directly into why oil is so cheap. Automobiles are the major source of oil demand, and automobile sales in China have been way below estimates. The U.S. has had a tremendous increase of four million barrels a day during the last four or five years from fracking, which was impossible to predict several years ago. You add four or five million more barrels from the U.S. to a sharply slowing China demand and with no one in OPEC cutting production, it is not surprising oil is $40. You said that a further drop in the price of oil would cause you to be more bearish. Are there other things that you worry about that would cause you to be more bearish, particularly with respect to U.S. equities? As I said, we have to watch for tightening in the labor market. Another thing that I mentioned last year and is now getting everyone s attention is the very distressing productivity collapse that we ve seen. I was one of the first to point out that we ve been having basically zero productivity growth over the last several years way below estimates. We don t know all the reasons for it. There could be some mismeasurement problems involved. Prices may be falling faster than we think. So many things are free and bundled today -- camera and GPS services, information retrieval, etc. The GDP statisticians don t know how to get those freebies into their data. There is lots of work to do to understand this productivity decline. I m also disappointed that the labor-participation rate hasn t increased. We have near-full employment, and we re creating almost 200,000 new jobs a month and people still don t want to go into the labor force to search out work. This is a disturbing trend. However, I do not believe these worries will be the major factors driving equity prices next year. The major driver of equity prices will be the bounce back in earnings. If we don t see some bounce back in earnings, we are not going to have a good year in stocks. Stepping back, what guidance would you offer to financial advisors who are looking to construct portfolios for clients, particularly those clients who are in the early stages of their investing lifetimes and are taking a long-term view towards growing their wealth in their portfolio? A lot of advisors as well as investors have been avoiding dividend-paying stocks because they said, It ll look like I m crazy if I invest in a yield-based strategy on the eve of the Fed hiking for the first time in nine years. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

6 But once the Fed does hike, as I think they will on December 16, it will be a different story. Advisors will look around and find the world has not ended, and the yield on the 10-year is still very tame. They are going to start saying, You know what? Maybe we should be going into some of these really great yielding stocks because, very honestly, we are not going to find yields in the fixed-income area. Despite permanently lower interest rates, we ve had approximately a 10% increase in dividends in the S&P 500 this year. Dividends have increased despite a terrible year for earnings. That is where the opportunity lies. Once the Fed hikes, we could see a very nice rally in those value stocks that have been under so much pressure this year. Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued

Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued November 21, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and

More information

Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012

Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012 Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012 Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Senior Investment

More information

Is The Market Predicting A Recession?

Is The Market Predicting A Recession? Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.

More information

Gundlach's Forecast for 2015

Gundlach's Forecast for 2015 Gundlach's Forecast for 2015 January 20, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Despite a fragile economic recovery now threatened by falling oil prices and the likelihood that the Fed will raise short-term rates, the

More information

The Global Recession of 2016

The Global Recession of 2016 INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015

More information

Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak

Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak November 21, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Stock Markets Shift Into A More Volatile Gear 2. Most Cited Reasons For the Current Market

More information

Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet

Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet June 21, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed to Reduce Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Implications 2. How the Fed Got

More information

Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds

Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds September 13, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the most respected bond managers in the world with over $100B in fixed-income assets under management,

More information

Jeremy Siegel: The Market is Cheap on a Long-Term Basis

Jeremy Siegel: The Market is Cheap on a Long-Term Basis Jeremy Siegel: The Market is Cheap on a Long-Term Basis November 26, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

More information

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is

More information

Robert Shiller on Trills, Housing and Market Valuations

Robert Shiller on Trills, Housing and Market Valuations Robert Shiller on Trills, Housing and Market Valuations February 16, 2010 by Dan Richards Robert J. Shiller is the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University, and Professor of Finance and

More information

Gundlach s Forecast for 2016

Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike

More information

Global Financial Crises and the U.S. Economy: A Monetary Policymaker's Perspective

Global Financial Crises and the U.S. Economy: A Monetary Policymaker's Perspective U.C. San Diego The Dean's Roundtable on International Affairs UCSD Faculty Club San Diego, California For delivery Wednesday, April 7, 1999, at approximately 8:40 a.m. PDT (10:40 a.m. EDT) by Robert T.

More information

IT S SUPPLY AND DEMAND STUPID

IT S SUPPLY AND DEMAND STUPID IT S SUPPLY AND DEMAND STUPID We ve put a twist on President Bill Clinton s campaign slogan It s the Economy Stupid, suggesting investors stay focused on what s driving this market: namely corporate buybacks

More information

Richard Bernstein: US Assets will Outperform over the Next Decade

Richard Bernstein: US Assets will Outperform over the Next Decade Richard Bernstein: US Assets will Outperform over the Next Decade May 8, 2012 by Robert Huebscher Richard Bernstein is the chief executive officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC, an independent investment

More information

4 BIG REASONS YOU CAN T AFFORD TO IGNORE BUSINESS CREDIT!

4 BIG REASONS YOU CAN T AFFORD TO IGNORE BUSINESS CREDIT! SPECIAL REPORT: 4 BIG REASONS YOU CAN T AFFORD TO IGNORE BUSINESS CREDIT! Provided compliments of: 4 Big Reasons You Can t Afford To Ignore Business Credit Copyright 2012 All rights reserved. No part of

More information

ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #25 MONETARY POLICY Annenberg Foundation & Educational Film Center

ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #25 MONETARY POLICY Annenberg Foundation & Educational Film Center ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #25 MONETARY POLICY ECONOMICS U$A: 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #25 MONETARY POLICY (MUSIC PLAYS) ANNOUNCER: FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY ANNENBERG

More information

Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong

Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong January 9, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Surprising 312,000 New Jobs Created in December 2. Stocks Soar on Fed

More information

Keeping the Economy on Track

Keeping the Economy on Track San Francisco Rotary Club Marines Memorial Club For delivery December 5, 2000 at approx. 12:55 PM PST By Robert T. Parry, President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco I. Good afternoon. Keeping the

More information

Gundlach s Forecast for 2017

Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,

More information

Words on Wealth. Welcome to the winter edition of Meridian s Words on Wealth. Meridian W INTER 2015

Words on Wealth. Welcome to the winter edition of Meridian s Words on Wealth. Meridian W INTER 2015 Meridian Words on Wealth W INTER 2015 Welcome to the winter edition of Meridian s Words on Wealth. The holiday season has passed, which can only mean one thing: it s time to turn (at least some of) your

More information

The Lure of Alternative Credit Opportunities in Global Credit Investing

The Lure of Alternative Credit Opportunities in Global Credit Investing The Lure of Alternative Credit Opportunities in Global Credit Investing David Snow, Privcap: Today we re joined by Glenn August of Oak Hill Advisors. Glenn, welcome to PrivCap. Thanks for being here. Glenn

More information

ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #24 FEDERAL DEFICITS Annenberg Foundation & Educational Film Center

ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #24 FEDERAL DEFICITS Annenberg Foundation & Educational Film Center ECONOMICS U$A 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #24 FEDERAL DEFICITS ECONOMICS U$A: 21 ST CENTURY EDITION PROGRAM #24 FEDERAL DEFICITS (MUSIC PLAYS) ANNOUNCER: FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY ANNENBERG

More information

What Should the Fed Do?

What Should the Fed Do? Peterson Perspectives Interviews on Current Topics What Should the Fed Do? Joseph E. Gagnon and Michael Mussa discuss the latest steps by the Federal Reserve to help the economy and what tools might be

More information

BINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM

BINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM BINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM CONTENTS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's Price? And How? Price Reflects Probability Actually,

More information

Sycamore Market Analysis

Sycamore Market Analysis Sycamore Market Analysis September 30, 2015 The third quarter came to an end with big gains for stocks. The rally did not quite reverse the effect of selling on Monday though with the S&P 500 still down

More information

Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy

Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over

More information

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (MAY)

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (MAY) LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY May 30 2017 JUNE PREVIEW Matthew E. Peterson Chief Wealth Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS June

More information

Gundlach s Top ETF Recommendation

Gundlach s Top ETF Recommendation Gundlach s Top ETF Recommendation November 17, 2017 by Robert Huebscher The money to be made is in non-u.s. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.

More information

Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak

Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak August 9, 2016 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. July Jobs Report Stronger Than Expected, 2 Month in a Row 2. The Real

More information

Ira Epstein s Gold Report

Ira Epstein s Gold Report Ira Epstein s Gold Report 3-12-2015 Will the Federal Reserve leave in or take out the word patient at this Wednesday s FOMC Meeting? 10-Year Notes are a proxy for Gold Prices Currency War in full swing

More information

Finding Value Globally Across Asset Classes

Finding Value Globally Across Asset Classes Finding Value Globally Across Asset Classes May 24, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jae S. Yoon, CFA, is the chief investment officer and a portfolio manager at New York Life Investment Management LLC (NYLIM).

More information

Economic Update. September 2016

Economic Update. September 2016 Economic Update September 2016 Pardon my rant September 9, 2016 Neither stocks nor bonds could make any headway over the past month. August lived up to its reputation as a dull month, and September started

More information

In this example, we cover how to discuss a sell-side divestiture transaction in investment banking interviews.

In this example, we cover how to discuss a sell-side divestiture transaction in investment banking interviews. Breaking Into Wall Street Investment Banking Interview Guide Sample Deal Discussion #1 Sell-Side Divestiture Transaction Narrator: Hello everyone, and welcome to our first sample deal discussion. In this

More information

Wealth in Real Estate

Wealth in Real Estate Building Wealth Through Real Estate Wealth in Real Estate Why build wealth this way? The simple answer is that it is the most powerful way to accumulate wealth, and more people have become millionaires

More information

Stocks Laboring to Move Higher

Stocks Laboring to Move Higher Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in

More information

Bruce Greenwald: The Crisis Bigger than Global Warming

Bruce Greenwald: The Crisis Bigger than Global Warming Bruce Greenwald: The Crisis Bigger than Global Warming April 26, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Manufacturing is dying on a global basis, according to Bruce Greenwald, and its collapse will mean the demise of

More information

The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Outline 1. Is there a New Normal ahead for stocks? 2. Is the

More information

PROFITING WITH FOREX: BONUS REPORT

PROFITING WITH FOREX: BONUS REPORT PROFITING WITH FOREX: BONUS REPORT PROFITING WITH FOREX: The Most Effective Tools and Techniques for Trading Currencies BIG PROFITS COME FROM LETTING YOUR WINNERS RUN S. Wade Hansen Two axioms pervade

More information

Checks and Balances TV: America s #1 Source for Balanced Financial Advice

Checks and Balances TV: America s #1 Source for Balanced Financial Advice The TruTh about SOCIAL SECURITY Social Security: a simple idea that s grown out of control. Social Security is the widely known retirement safety net for the American Workforce. When it began in 1935,

More information

Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over

Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over December 6, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central

More information

Club Accounts - David Wilson Question 6.

Club Accounts - David Wilson Question 6. Club Accounts - David Wilson. 2011 Question 6. Anyone familiar with Farm Accounts or Service Firms (notes for both topics are back on the webpage you found this on), will have no trouble with Club Accounts.

More information

Monthly Market Insights March 1, 2019

Monthly Market Insights March 1, 2019 Jeremy R. Hofer Hofer & Associates Wealth Management 90 E. Thousand Oaks Blvd #310 Thousand Oaks, CA 91360 (805) 557-8054 www.hoferwm.com Monthly Market Insights March 1, 2019 The summary below is provided

More information

Market Pullback A Q&A with our Investment Team

Market Pullback A Q&A with our Investment Team Market Pullback A Q&A with our Investment Team The Morningstar Investment Management group August 2015 Last week, stock markets fell globally in the toughest week of 2015 to date. Investors weighed concerns

More information

Understanding Financial Statements: The Basics

Understanding Financial Statements: The Basics Coaching Program Understanding Financial Statements: The Basics 2010-18 As business owners or investors, most of us are at least familiar with the concept of financial statements. We understand that we

More information

ECO155L19.doc 1 OKAY SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS WE WANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NOMINAL AND REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. WE SORT OF

ECO155L19.doc 1 OKAY SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS WE WANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NOMINAL AND REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. WE SORT OF ECO155L19.doc 1 OKAY SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS WE WANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NOMINAL AND REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. WE SORT OF GOT A LITTLE BIT OF A MATHEMATICAL CALCULATION TO GO THROUGH HERE. THESE

More information

Stephanie Kelton: National Debt Washington s Wall Against Progress

Stephanie Kelton: National Debt Washington s Wall Against Progress Stephanie Kelton: National Debt Washington s Wall Against Progress May 10, 2016 by Robert Huebscher The much-ridiculed plan to build a wall on the Mexican border has dominated the political discourse since

More information

Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton School CFA Forecast Dinner, February 9, 2017

Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton School CFA Forecast Dinner, February 9, 2017 Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton School CFA Forecast Dinner, February 9, 2017 Important Information This presentation represents the opinion of Jeremy Siegel and is

More information

U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs

U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs September 20, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. National Debt Tops $20 Trillion, Equal to 107% of GDP 2. Debt Held by the Public

More information

Global Bond Markets to Enter New Phase in 2018

Global Bond Markets to Enter New Phase in 2018 Global Bond Markets to Enter New Phase in 2018 January 8, 2018 by Douglas Peebles of AllianceBernstein 2017 was supposed to be the year that would put an end to modest growth, lukewarm inflation and anemic

More information

Another Three Go Down

Another Three Go Down Published by TFNN, Corp. ~ 601 Cleveland Street, Ste 618 Clearwater, FL 33755 ~ 1-877-518-9190 ~ http://www.tfnn.com ~ Copyright 2010 ~ All Rights Reserved Another Three Go Down Patterns Profits & Peace

More information

Are we on the road to recovery?

Are we on the road to recovery? Are we on the road to recovery? Transcript Catherine Gordon: Hi, I m Catherine Gordon. We re here with Joe Davis, Vanguard s chief economist, to talk about economic trends and the outlook for the rest

More information

2016 July Financial Market Update

2016 July Financial Market Update Brexit Fades as Focus Returns Home 2016 July Financial Market Update Last month s summary ended with the following remarks: July 29, 2016 Don t discount the possibility of additional short-term volatility

More information

Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out

Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out September 12, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Stimulative measures drive growth, and the U.S. economy and stock market have benefited from quantitative easing,

More information

TRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM

TRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM TRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM CONTENTS A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITY Forex Opportunity Without the Forex Risk BINARY OPTIONS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's

More information

The Investors Newsletter

The Investors Newsletter I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E 1 Perspectives 2 Summary of Indexes 3 Fundamentals & Indicators 4 Index Chart & Analysis economic reports from the past quarter are not indicating the push into higher prices

More information

Michael Aronstein: Optimism for Housing and the Economy Robert Huebscher October 14, 2008

Michael Aronstein: Optimism for Housing and the Economy Robert Huebscher October 14, 2008 Michael Aronstein: Optimism for Housing and the Economy Robert Huebscher October 14, 2008 Michael Aronstein is President of NY-based Marketfield Asset Management, where he oversees the management of their

More information

Albert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession

Albert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession Albert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher As the equity markets have suffered their worst performance ever to start a year, we ve heard the familiar

More information

Income for Life #31. Interview With Brad Gibb

Income for Life #31. Interview With Brad Gibb Income for Life #31 Interview With Brad Gibb Here is the transcript of our interview with Income for Life expert, Brad Gibb. Hello, everyone. It s Tim Mittelstaedt, your Wealth Builders Club member liaison.

More information

WSJ: So when do you think they could realistically conclude these negotiations on the first review?

WSJ: So when do you think they could realistically conclude these negotiations on the first review? Transcript of interview with Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Published in the Wall Street Journal, 12 April 2016 Klaus Regling, the managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone

More information

Market Mastery Protégé Program Method 1 Part 1

Market Mastery Protégé Program Method 1 Part 1 Method 1 Part 1 Slide 2: Welcome back to the Market Mastery Protégé Program. This is Method 1. Slide 3: Method 1: understand how to trade Method 1 including identifying set up conditions, when to enter

More information

If you are over age 50, you get another $5,500 in catch-up contributions. Are you taking advantage of that additional amount?

If you are over age 50, you get another $5,500 in catch-up contributions. Are you taking advantage of that additional amount? Let s start this off with the obvious. I am not a certified financial planner. I am not a certified investment counselor. Anything I know about investing, I ve learned by making mistakes, not by taking

More information

Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays

Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays May 2, 2016 by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman Neither rising rates nor rising defaults would spell the end of opportunistic, diversified fixed income. There

More information

Financial Markets Perspective October 2015

Financial Markets Perspective October 2015 www.victoriacapitalus.com Financial Markets Perspective October 2015 A CHECKLIST FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS Diane V. Nugent President Thomas E. Nugent EVP THE CHANGING FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK The U.S. economy

More information

The Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equities

The Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equities 4 Year Average GDP Growth Rate % The Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equities U.S. GDP Growth Trends 1951-Current 8 6 4 2 0 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 4yr GDP

More information

THE CHAPMAN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 22, 2008

THE CHAPMAN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 22, 2008 THE CHAPMAN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 22, 2008 Charts and technical commentary by David Chapman Union Securities Ltd, 33 Yonge Street, Suite 901, Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1G4 fax (416) 604-0533, (416) 604-0557,

More information

Personal Managed Funds and Future Lifestyle Plan. Investor Report

Personal Managed Funds and Future Lifestyle Plan. Investor Report Personal Managed Funds and Future Lifestyle Plan Investor Report for the six months ended 31 March 2016 1 Getting the most from your Investor Report Your Investor Report makes it easy for you to see how

More information

The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks

The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks February 15, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 2. Confluence of Negative Factors Became Important

More information

Myth- Busting Emerging Markets PE With Professor Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School

Myth- Busting Emerging Markets PE With Professor Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School Myth- Busting Emerging Markets PE With Professor Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School David Snow, Privcap: Today, we re joined by Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School. Josh, welcome to Privcap today.

More information

USAA s Unique Strategy for the Advisor Market

USAA s Unique Strategy for the Advisor Market USAA s Unique Strategy for the Advisor Market May 15, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Keith Sloane serves as head of third-party distribution for USAA Investments. Mr. Sloane previously served as a senior vice

More information

OPEC MEETING IN VIENNA AUSTRIA

OPEC MEETING IN VIENNA AUSTRIA LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY November 28 2016 DECEMBER GAME PLAN John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial

More information

A Top-Performing Multi-Asset ESG Income Fund

A Top-Performing Multi-Asset ESG Income Fund A Top-Performing Multi-Asset ESG Income Fund July 5, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Eventide Asset Management, LLC is a Boston-based Registered Investment Advisor and serves as the Advisor to Eventide Mutual

More information

Whither the US equity markets?

Whither the US equity markets? APRIL 2013 c o r p o r a t e f i n a n c e p r a c t i c e Whither the US equity markets? The underlying drivers of performance suggest that over the long term, a dramatic decline in equity returns is

More information

A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain

A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices

More information

US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of April 27-May 1: Weak GDP Edition

US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of April 27-May 1: Weak GDP Edition US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of April 27-May 1: Weak GDP Edition May 3, 2015 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart The market has been trading at fairly expensive levels since the first of the

More information

Business-Narative 1 Design-JWPR050-Hough August 12, :51. Part One COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL YOUR NEXT GREAT STOCK

Business-Narative 1 Design-JWPR050-Hough August 12, :51. Part One COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL YOUR NEXT GREAT STOCK Part One YOUR NEXT GREAT STOCK COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL 7 8 Chapter 1 You Should Own Stocks You probably already know this. After all, you re reading a book called Your Next Great Stock. But you should own

More information

GMO: Two Questions We Can t Answer By Robert Huebscher March 27, 2012

GMO: Two Questions We Can t Answer By Robert Huebscher March 27, 2012 GMO: Two Questions We Can t Answer By Robert Huebscher March 27, 2012 Its reputation was built on stellar returns achieved with long-term bets on undervalued asset classes. Current market conditions, however,

More information

COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. The Check Is in the Mail. Get Paid to Invest with Dividends

COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. The Check Is in the Mail. Get Paid to Invest with Dividends Chapter One The Check Is in the Mail Get Paid to Invest with Dividends T HE CONTROLLER OF MY COMPANY IS NAMED PAM. Besides being a great controller, Pam has a great smile, one of those toothy ones that

More information

The Flattening Yield Curve

The Flattening Yield Curve The Flattening Yield Curve January 9, 2019 Harvey looks at the yield curve today through the lens of his 1986 pioneering work on yield-curve inversions and their foreshadowing of economic downturns. Harvey,

More information

Find Private Lenders Now CHAPTER 10. At Last! How To. 114 Copyright 2010 Find Private Lenders Now, LLC All Rights Reserved

Find Private Lenders Now CHAPTER 10. At Last! How To. 114 Copyright 2010 Find Private Lenders Now, LLC All Rights Reserved CHAPTER 10 At Last! How To Structure Your Deal 114 Copyright 2010 Find Private Lenders Now, LLC All Rights Reserved 1. Terms You will need to come up with a loan-to-value that will work for your business

More information

Fed Funds Rates Expected to Rise

Fed Funds Rates Expected to Rise Educational Series Fed Funds Rates Expected to Rise With the December 16th Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC) meeting rapidly approaching I felt it important to revisit the discussion of what happens

More information

Gundlach?s Predictions for 2013

Gundlach?s Predictions for 2013 Gundlach?s Predictions for 2013 January 15, 2013 by Robert Huebscher Don t expect the low volatility that characterized the capital markets in 2012 to continue. Global economic uncertainty remains, and

More information

Incremental Steps Toward a Radical Solution

Incremental Steps Toward a Radical Solution Peterson Perspectives Interviews on Current Topics Incremental Steps Toward a Radical Solution Simon Johnson observes that the Federal Reserve s policy of quantitative easing of monetary policy is a necessary

More information

Financial Markets Perspective

Financial Markets Perspective Financial Markets Perspective 4101 Main Street, Suite C Hilton Head Island, SC 29926 843.342.3044 www.victoriacapitalus.com FUNDAMENTALS MATTER January 2014 A BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT ECONOMY Last

More information

CIF Sector Recommendation Report (Fall 2012)

CIF Sector Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Date: 4/22/13 Analyst: Matthew Landen CIF Sector Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Sector: Financials Review Period: 4/4/13 4/17/13 Section (A) Sector Performance Review The financial sector has outperformed

More information

On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve

On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve May 1, 2018 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Overview We touch on several bases today, starting with last Friday s initial estimate

More information

The Hard Lessons of Stock Market History

The Hard Lessons of Stock Market History The Hard Lessons of Stock Market History The Lessons of Stock Market History If you re like most people, you believe there s a great deal of truth in the old adage that history tends to repeats itself

More information

IB Interview Guide: Case Study Exercises Three-Statement Modeling Case (30 Minutes)

IB Interview Guide: Case Study Exercises Three-Statement Modeling Case (30 Minutes) IB Interview Guide: Case Study Exercises Three-Statement Modeling Case (30 Minutes) Hello, and welcome to our first sample case study. This is a three-statement modeling case study and we're using this

More information

Fed's Zero Interest Rate Cost Savers A Trillion Dollars

Fed's Zero Interest Rate Cost Savers A Trillion Dollars Fed's Zero Interest Rate Cost Savers A Trillion Dollars May 15, 2014 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. How Super Low Interest Rates Punish Savers 2. Has the Low Interest Rate

More information

* Next, that you introduce yourself to one another

* Next, that you introduce yourself to one another Slide 1 * Tax- Free Retirement Educational Seminar Good morning/evening. I m [Name], your co- host for today. It gives me great pleasure to introduce the (DBA name) from. (DBA name) has been assisting

More information

Aaron Campbell Thank you very much. Glad to be here.

Aaron Campbell Thank you very much. Glad to be here. Folks, retirement comes faster than you think. You may be listening now; you re already in retirement, but it s never too late or too early to start planning for retirement. So I d thought it d be good

More information

Equity Market Review and Outlook

Equity Market Review and Outlook REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Q3 2016 Equity Market Review and Outlook By Richard Skaggs, CFA, VP, Senior Equity Strategist KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks rallied handily in the third quarter, led by global markets. The Fed

More information

2015 Performance Report Forex End Of Day Signals Set & Forget Forex Signals

2015 Performance Report Forex End Of Day Signals Set & Forget Forex Signals 2015 Performance Report Forex End Of Day Signals Set & Forget Forex Signals Main Site -> http://www.forexinvestinglive.com

More information

11 Biggest Rollover Blunders (and How to Avoid Them)

11 Biggest Rollover Blunders (and How to Avoid Them) 11 Biggest Rollover Blunders (and How to Avoid Them) Rolling over your funds for retirement presents a number of opportunities for error. Having a set of guidelines and preventive touch points is necessary

More information

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning

More information

Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt

Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt November 9, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Unemployment Rate Dropped to 4.9% in October 2. Why the US Economy is

More information

May Market Update Podcast

May Market Update Podcast May Market Update Podcast Schuster: In the most recent month, risk assets, many of which have experienced doubledigit gains year-to-date, remain generally positive, despite perceptions of slowing global

More information

Gauging Current Economic Momentum. Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Gauging Current Economic Momentum. Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Gauging Current Economic Momentum Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rotary Club of Knoxville Knoxville, Tennessee August 16, 2016 Atlanta Fed President

More information

An Interview with Renaud Laplanche. Renaud Laplanche, CEO, Lending Club, speaks with Growthink University s Dave Lavinsky

An Interview with Renaud Laplanche. Renaud Laplanche, CEO, Lending Club, speaks with Growthink University s Dave Lavinsky An Interview with Renaud Laplanche Renaud Laplanche, CEO, Lending Club, speaks with Growthink University s Dave Lavinsky Dave Lavinsky: Hello everyone. This is Dave Lavinsky from Growthink. Today I am

More information

There are two major reasons we re seeing a resurgence of the greenback, and it may bode well for stocks and the economy.

There are two major reasons we re seeing a resurgence of the greenback, and it may bode well for stocks and the economy. 2014 Third Quarter Updates: King Dollar Reclaims the Throne & The Market - It s The Wall of Worry; Another Spooky October The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds: and the

More information