Post-EU referendum expert panel

Transcription

1 Post-EU referendum expert panel

2 Panellists Jon McLeod Chairman, UK Corporate, Financial and Public Affairs Laurent Chokoualé Datou Chairman, EU Public Affairs Conor Magowan Director of Public Affairs, Scotland Ross Williamson Managing Director, Northern Ireland Johnny Stewart Senior Public Affairs Manager Nick Oborne Director, Financial Communications Piers Coleman Partner, K&L Gates Jacob Ghanty Partner, K&L Gates

3 The result UK votes to leave EU Leave = 51.9% (17.41m) Remain = 48.1% (16.14m) Turnout: 72.2% 0 results left to declare >70% young people voted Remain

4 Reaction Reaction from the Government and indication of next steps Other political reaction "We will oppose an austerity budget... Clearly, job losses could be in the offing. Jeremy Corbyn Leader of the Opposition I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. David Cameron Prime Minister This self-inflicted wound will be Cameron s legacy. Tim Farron Leader of the Liberal Democrats We need a Brexit Prime Minister. Nigel Farage Leader of UKIP

5 Westminster Prime Minister will step down by next Conservative party conference Speculation as to whether the Chancellor will announce resignation shortly

6 Markets (at 0947 hrs) Pound = $ FTSE 100 6, (4.36%) Nikkei , , (7.92%) Trading suspended Bank of England will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward

7 Brussels Reaction from European leaders The news from Britain is really sobering. It looks like a sad day for Europe and Britain. Frank-Walter Steinmeier German Foreign Minister I call for a conclave to reaffirm our commitment in July. We have to define our priorities and set out a new future for Europe. Charles Michel Prime Minister of Belgium Exit negotiations should be concluded within 2 years at max. There cannot be any special treatment. Leave means leave. Manfred Weber Leader of EPP Group in European Parliament We respect the result. We have clarity for the UK to go its own way Now is the time for us to behave seriously and responsibly. David Cameron has his responsibilities for his country, we have our responsibilities for the future of the EU. You can see what is happening to sterling on the markets. I don't want the same thing to happen to the euro. Martin Schulz President of the European Parliament Until the UK formally leaves the EU, EU law will continue to apply for and within the UK both rights and obligations... All the procedures for withdrawal are clear and set out in the Treaty. Donald Tusk President of the European Council

8 How to Brexit Widely expected that article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union will be with chosen device However, this deals only with the withdrawal arrangements per se, and does not deal with the nature of the future UK/EU relationship, which has very many variables This means both will need to be negotiated with parallel A two year time-limit on withdrawal; can only be extended by agreement of all Member States No time limit for negotiations on a future UK/EU relationship; questions over whether this will take place after or at the same time as those for withdrawal Implication is a Hobson s choice between a hurried exit or a long period of uncertainty and extended negotiation What this means for the future of the EU

9 Free Trade If free trade negotiations take place after withdrawal, the UK would trade with EU under World Trade Organization rules Trade deals with other countries negotiated under EU would no longer apply A bespoke market access agreement could take five years or more The Norway Model: European Economic Area (EEA) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) membership The Turkish Model: a Customs Union The Swiss Model: Bilateral Agreements between the UK and EU The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Model: the UK would negotiate an FTA with the EU and separate ones with third countries Free Trade Agreements are trials of strength, in which each side concedes additional market access to the other. The strongest powers get the best deals. Centre for European Reform

10 Business impacts outside the EU Future of anti-trust law: loss of protection, persistence of impact of EU regime Persistence of State Aid restrictions as a condition of access to EU market Consumer protection and the digital economy The future extent of anti-discrimination legislation The civil justice system, for example in relation to enforcing court orders and the resolution of disputes alternative arrangements The status of UK nationals working in third countries EU Charter of Fundamental Rights v European Convention on Human Rights v British Bill of Rights Data protection and Council of Europe Convention 108

11 Devolved nations Reaction from Scotland Implications for Scottish independence The vote here makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union. Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland

12 Devolved nations Reactions from Wales and Northern Ireland Implications for devolution Implication for cross-border relations

13 The legal perspective Scope for legal challenges to the result Other legal implications

14 The legal perspective A need to establish general legal principles regarding the existing body of statue and judge-made law (acquis communautaire) In particular in relation to the acquired rights of people and organisations, who have previously relied on EU provisions UK Parliament/Government will need to decide whether to repeal, retain or reform the body of law, having regard to non-eu international obligations from which there has been no Brexit vote A great deal of mirroring likely to be necessary if UK desire market access People and organisations will have a public law expectation to be consulted on the chosen path in each area of law

15 Contact us Jon McLeod Weber Shandwick London 2 Waterhouse Square 140 Holborn London EC1N 2AE JMcleod@webershandwick.com Laurent Chokoualé Datou Weber Shandwick Brussels Avenue de Cortenbergh 100 Brussels B-1000 LChokouale@webershandwick.com Conor Magowan Weber Shandwick Edinburgh 9 York Place Edinburgh EH1 3AB CMagowan@webershandwick.com Ross Williamson Weber Shandwick Belfast The Linenhall Linenhall Street Belfast BT2 8BG rwilliamson@webershandwick.com Nick Oborne Weber Shandwick London 2 Waterhouse Square 140 Holborn London EC1N 2AE noborne@webershandwick.com Piers Coleman K&L Gates 1 New Change London EC4M 9AF piers.coleman@klgates.com