The Sun EU Referendum Survey

Transcription

1 The Sun EU Referendum Survey METHODOLOGY NOTE ComRes interviewed 1,002 GB adults by telephone between 8th and 10 th April Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. To commission a voting intention poll or a public opinion survey please contact Katharine Peacock: katharine.peacock@comres.co.uk To register for Pollwatch, a monthly newsletter update on the polls, please pollwatch@comres.co.uk

2 V2. If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? "Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?" GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Remain % 47% 43% 61% 57% 46% 40% 42% 33% 57% 45% 40% 37% 45% 59% 44% 41% 39% 51% Leave % 40% 36% 20% 31% 32% 38% 45% 52% 29% 40% 43% 40% 37% 31% 38% 38% 42% 34% Don't know % 14% 21% 19% 13% 22% 23% 13% 15% 14% 15% 18% 24% 18% 10% 18% 21% 19% 15% Table 2/1 Page 3

3 V2. If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? "Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?" PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Remain % 43% 64% 3% 100% - - Leave % 46% 27% 96% - 100% - Don't know * % 11% 8% * % Table 2/2 Page 4

4 Q1. Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind? Base: All giving a vote decision Table 3/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Definitely decided % 62% 60% 44% 60% 61% 66% 65% 63% 64% 57% 63% 60% 62% 60% 61% 56% 66% 64% May change mind % 37% 39% 55% 40% 36% 34% 35% 35% 35% 42% 37% 38% 37% 38% 38% 43% 34% 35% Don't know % 1% 1% 1% - 3% - - 2% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Page 5

5 Q1. Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind? Base: All giving a vote decision Table 3/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - Definitely decided % 59% 67% 82% 60% 62% - May change mind % 41% 33% 18% 39% 37% - Don't know % 1% - - 1% 1% - Page 6

6 Q2. How much, if at all, do you feel you know about the issues around the UK's membership of the European Union? Table 4/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% A great deal (4) % 20% 8% 10% 10% 15% 14% 17% 16% 17% 18% 11% 9% 14% 10% 14% 15% 13% 15% A fair amount (3) % 49% 48% 47% 48% 51% 54% 44% 46% 55% 45% 53% 41% 47% 63% 47% 34% 52% 52% Not very much (2) % 24% 36% 32% 34% 28% 27% 31% 28% 24% 33% 29% 34% 31% 21% 31% 41% 28% 26% Nothing at all (1) % 7% 8% 11% 7% 5% 5% 8% 10% 4% 4% 7% 16% 8% 6% 8% 10% 6% 7% Don't know 1 * * * * * * * - - * * * - * - - * * - * - - * Mean score Standard deviation Standard error Page 7

7 Q2. How much, if at all, do you feel you know about the issues around the UK's membership of the European Union? Table 4/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% A great deal (4) % 14% 12% 38% 11% 20% 8% A fair amount (3) % 58% 53% 42% 54% 52% 28% Not very much (2) % 24% 30% 17% 31% 23% 40% Nothing at all (1) % 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 24% Don't know 1 * * * - - * - * Mean score Standard deviation Standard error Page 8

8 Q3. When deciding how to vote at the EU referendum, which of the following do you think will be most important in your decision about whether to vote to remain or leave? Will it be the effect it has on... GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% The economy % 49% 45% 51% 52% 54% 47% 47% 34% 57% 55% 35% 36% 46% 55% 46% 47% 41% 49% Immigration % 23% 25% 22% 19% 16% 22% 28% 33% 16% 19% 33% 30% 24% 25% 24% 23% 30% 21% National security % 12% 17% 13% 15% 12% 19% 10% 16% 12% 14% 15% 17% 14% 9% 15% 17% 13% 14% Britain's influence on the world stage % 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 5% 8% 9% 10% 6% 5% 7% 7% 5% 8% 7% 8% 7% None of these % 6% 4% 7% 3% 9% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 8% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% 6% Don't know % 2% 3% - 2% 1% 3% 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% 5% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% Table 5/1 Page 9

9 Q3. When deciding how to vote at the EU referendum, which of the following do you think will be most important in your decision about whether to vote to remain or leave? Will it be the effect it has on... PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% The economy % 53% 53% 23% 64% 33% 33% Immigration % 24% 18% 45% 11% 41% 20% National security % 13% 12% 20% 11% 16% 22% Britain's influence on the world stage % 7% 11% 3% 10% 5% 6% None of these % 2% 4% 5% 3% 4% 11% Don't know % 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 9% Table 5/2 Page 10

10 Q4_SUM. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... SUMMARY TABLE CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 6/1 Total Agee Disagree Don't know I am bored by the EU referendum % 36% 63% 1% I am excited by the EU referendum % 22% 76% 2% The EU referendum is an important moment in the history of the UK % 85% 13% 2% It won't make a difference to Britain if we stay or leave the European Union % 23% 71% 6% Page 11

11 Q4_1. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... I am bored by the EU referendum CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 7/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 34% 37% 33% 36% 34% 37% 30% 40% 29% 35% 33% 46% 36% 28% 36% 43% 36% 31% Disagree % 65% 61% 65% 63% 63% 62% 69% 59% 70% 63% 66% 53% 63% 70% 62% 56% 63% 67% Don't know % 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% Page 12

12 Q4_1. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... I am bored by the EU referendum CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 7/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 23% 37% 27% 32% 33% 49% Disagree % 75% 63% 73% 67% 67% 46% Don't know % 2% - - 1% - 5% Page 13

13 Q4_2. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... I am excited by the EU referendum CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 8/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 27% 18% 28% 21% 20% 23% 21% 23% 23% 21% 25% 21% 22% 16% 23% 15% 20% 29% Disagree % 71% 81% 69% 78% 80% 77% 75% 75% 76% 78% 73% 76% 76% 80% 75% 84% 77% 70% Don't know % 3% 1% 3% 1% * 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% Page 14

14 Q4_2. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... I am excited by the EU referendum CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 8/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 23% 16% 51% 18% 35% 7% Disagree % 75% 81% 47% 80% 65% 88% Don't know % 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 4% Page 15

15 Q4_3. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... The EU referendum is an important moment in the history of the UK CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 9/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 87% 84% 92% 80% 91% 84% 79% 85% 90% 86% 83% 81% 85% 90% 85% 80% 88% 86% Disagree % 12% 14% 8% 16% 8% 15% 18% 13% 9% 12% 14% 18% 13% 10% 13% 18% 9% 13% Don't know % 1% 2% - 4% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% - 2% 2% 3% 1% Page 16

16 Q4_3. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... The EU referendum is an important moment in the history of the UK CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 9/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 92% 86% 91% 90% 87% 69% Disagree % 8% 11% 9% 10% 12% 24% Don't know 18 * % * 3% - 1% 1% 7% Page 17

17 Q4_4. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... It won't make a difference to Britain if we stay or leave the European Union CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 10/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 25% 22% 26% 25% 17% 25% 25% 22% 18% 21% 29% 26% 24% 18% 23% 24% 24% 23% Disagree % 71% 72% 72% 72% 77% 69% 70% 69% 78% 73% 68% 65% 71% 78% 71% 67% 70% 74% Don't know % 4% 7% 2% 3% 6% 6% 6% 9% 4% 6% 3% 9% 6% 4% 6% 8% 6% 4% Page 18

18 Q4_4. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements... It won't make a difference to Britain if we stay or leave the European Union CATI Opinion Poll EU Referendum Table 10/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Agee % 16% 23% 31% 19% 25% 30% Disagree % 78% 74% 69% 80% 73% 45% Don't know % 5% 3% - 1% 2% 24% Page 19

19 Q5. Do you think Britain's national security is better off if Britain remained a member of the EU or left the EU or do you think it makes no difference? Table 11/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Remained in the EU % 30% 27% 42% 31% 27% 20% 30% 26% 36% 30% 25% 21% 28% 36% 28% 26% 23% 33% Left the EU % 21% 23% 9% 22% 23% 22% 23% 27% 18% 22% 29% 20% 22% 15% 23% 23% 29% 17% Makes no difference % 44% 42% 46% 38% 44% 48% 41% 39% 38% 42% 43% 48% 42% 46% 42% 42% 41% 43% Don't know % 5% 9% 3% 8% 6% 10% 6% 7% 8% 7% 3% 11% 8% 3% 8% 9% 7% 7% Page 20

20 Q5. Do you think Britain's national security is better off if Britain remained a member of the EU or left the EU or do you think it makes no difference? Table 11/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Remained in the EU % 27% 47% 3% 54% 4% 14% Left the EU % 25% 13% 61% 4% 48% 12% Makes no difference % 39% 35% 32% 38% 45% 50% Don't know % 8% 5% 5% 4% 3% 25% Page 21

21 Q6. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion of the European Union? Table 12/1 GENDER AGE SOCIAL GRADE REGION SUMMARY England Total Male Female AB C1 C2 DE England Scotland & Wales North Midlands South Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% I like the European Union % 27% 22% 37% 37% 25% 20% 17% 16% 36% 26% 19% 15% 24% 31% 24% 16% 23% 31% I am neutral towards the European Union % 43% 52% 53% 42% 57% 54% 46% 38% 44% 48% 50% 50% 46% 51% 47% 52% 44% 44% I dislike the European Union % 29% 23% 8% 19% 18% 25% 33% 43% 19% 25% 31% 31% 27% 17% 27% 29% 31% 23% Don't know % 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% Page 22

22 Q6. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion of the European Union? Table 12/2 PAST VOTE: GE2015 FORCED REFERENDUM VOTE (IF TOMORROW) Total Con Lab UKIP Remain Leave Don't know Unweighted Total Weighted Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% I like the European Union % 18% 43% 5% 49% 4% 4% I am neutral towards the European Union % 45% 37% 20% 45% 37% 78% I dislike the European Union % 35% 19% 75% 5% 59% 10% Don't know % 1% 1% - 1% 1% 8% Page 23