Polling Methodological note 10 July 2018

Transcription

1 Polling Methodological note 10 July 2018 The Kantar TNS Rearch Exprs Online Omnibus interviewed a reprentative sample of 1,086 adults in Great Britain between the 5 th and 9 th July All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The Kantar TNS Rearch Exprs us the Lightspeed accs panel as its sample source. The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2017 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Further details on the weighting are given on page two. Voting intentions The voting intention figur provided aim to show the current political opinion of the nation rather than to accurately predict the outcome of the next General Election. Change since our last poll A change has been made to the voting intention qutions: UKIP and the Green party are now shown on a second screen. Uncertainty All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sourc of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party s support li within 4 points of the timat provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

2 Weighting Weights have been applied to the sample to ensure that it is reprentative of the general public in Great Britain aged 18+. The sourc for the population totals are provided in each table. Gender* and working status Source: Annual Population Survey (Apr 2016-Mar 2017) Unweighted count Weighted count Male working Male not working Female working Female not working *Those reporting an other gender are randomly allocated to male or female. Gender* and age Source: ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat: Unweighted count Weighted count Male Male Male Male Male Male Female Female Female Female Female Female *Those reporting an other gender are randomly allocated to male or female. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

3 Region Source: ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat: Unweighted count Weighted count North East England North Wt England Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands Wt Midlands East of England London South East England South Wt England Wal Scotland Education by age Source: Annual Population Survey April March 2017 Unweighted count Weighted count Aged with a degree Aged with a degree Aged with a degree Other Vote in the 2016 EU referendum* Source: EU referendum & ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage Remain 41% 31% Leave 45% 34% Did not vote 14% 35% *An imputed rponse is given for those that prefer not to say who they voted for in the referendum. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

4 Vote in the 2017 General Election* Source: General Election & ONS Mid Year-2016 Population Estimat Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage England - Labour 28% 23% England - e 31% 25% England - Lib Dem 6% 4% England - Other 6% 3% England - No vote 14% 32% Scotland - Labour 2% 1% Scotland - e 1% 2% Scotland - SNP 3% 2% Scotland - Other 1% <0.5% Scotland - No vote 1% 3% Wal - Labour 3% 2% Wal - e 2% 1% Wal - PC <0.5% <0.5% Wal - Other 1% <0.5% Wal - No vote 1% 2% *An imputed rponse is given for those that prefer not to say who they voted for in the 2017 General Election. Likelihood to Vote in General Election We have timated the likelihood that each rpondent will vote in the next General Election. This value is based on rpondents stated intention to vote, their age and whether they voted in the last general election. The expected population turnout has been included as a population total in the weighting matrix. This turnout has been timated based on the relationship between sample and population turnout rat in the 2017 general election. Unweighted percentage Weighted percentage Estimated Voting Age Population turnout if General Election were to be held tomorrow 83% 60% The model was developed using data from rpondents that participated in Kantar Public polls immediately prior to the 2017 general election and immediately after the election. Further details Please contact Luke Taylor luke.taylor@kantarpublic.com for further details on the methodology used in this polling. Kantar Public UK is a member of the British Polling Council and abid by its rul.

5 Gelikely.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, do you think you would... Pg 3 Tb T2 Base: All adults GB 18+ Definitely vote (4) Probably vote (3) Probably not vote (2) Definitely not vote (1) Or would you prefer not to say? Definitely / Probably not vote Mean score Standard Deviation % 40% 40% 11% 16% 22% 39% 59% 74% 74% 55% 48% 60% 4% 58% 57% 5% * * * CDE* CDEF* CDEFG JM M ** M* P P * % 17% 18% 25% 23% 25% 17% 12% 7% 18% 21% 17% 16% 16% 16% 23% 13% H* H* H* * * ** * * % 17% 19% 35% 31% 20% 18% 9% 6% 3% 14% 14% 14% 32% 14% 13% 27% FGH* GH* H* H* * I ** I* IJ NO* % 24% 20% 25% 27% 33% 20% 20% 11% 5% 8% 19% 7% 44% 9% 5% 52% H* H* H* * * ** * IJL NO* % 2% 4% 5% 3% - 7% - 1% - 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% * * * G* * ** * * % 57% 58% 36% 39% 47% 56% 71% 82% 92% 76% 64% 76% 20% 74% 80% 19% * * * C* CDE* CDEF JLM M ** M* P P * % 41% 39% 59% 57% 53% 37% 29% 17% 8% 22% 33% 22% 76% 23% 19% 79% FGH* FGH* GH* H* * I ** I* IJL NO* * * * CDE* CDE* CDEFG JLM M ** M* * P P * Error Variance Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

6 finalvotingintention.voting intention for next General Election Pg 63 Tb T57 Base: All adults in GB 18+ excluding those who plan not to vote & those who refuse to say who they will vote for - weighted by likelihood of turning out in the General Election e Labour Liberal Democrats SNP UKIP Green Plaid Cymru Other % 40% 41% 13% 25% 30% 30% 47% 57% 83% 6% 5% 11% 17% 55% 29% 27% * * C C CDEF CDEF JKLM * * J* OP * % 40% 36% 66% 45% 57% 45% 31% 22% 4% 86% 10% 9% 48% 26% 48% 50% DFGH* H* GH GH IKLM * * IKL* N N* % 8% 9% 12% 12% 4% 6% 10% 10% 3% 5% 84% 4% 7% 4% 14% 7% * * IJLM* * * N * % 3% 5% 5% 7% 5% 3% 2% 3% - * 1% 38% 11% 2% 5% 6% * * * IJKM* IJ* * % 3% 4% * 3% 1% 6% 5% 2% 5% 1% - 11% 3% 6% - 3% * * J * J* * O * % 2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% - 14% 9% 3% 2% 6% * * * IJK* IJ* * % 1% * * 2% - * - 1% % * * 1% - * * * IJ* * * % 3% 2% 1% - - 4% 1% 4% 4% * - 4% 5% 3% 2% 1% * * J * J* J* * Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

7 finalvotingintention.voting intention for next General Election Pg 62 Tb T56 Base: All adults in GB 18+ excluding those who plan not to vote & those who refuse to say who they will vote for Labour e Liberal Democrats SNP Green UKIP Plaid Cymru Other % 40% 38% 63% 38% 56% 46% 31% 22% 6% 84% 12% 9% 44% 27% 49% 46% DGH* H* GH* GH* IKLM * * IKL* N N* % 37% 35% 13% 24% 27% 26% 46% 57% 82% 8% 7% 11% 16% 52% 27% 22% * * * * CDEF CDEF JKLM * * * OP * % 9% 8% 14% 11% 4% 5% 10% 9% 3% 6% 81% 4% 6% 4% 13% 7% * * * * IJLM* * * N * % 3% 7% 4% 11% 8% 2% 2% 3% - * 1% 37% 11% 3% 5% 9% * G* * * * IJKM* IJ* * % 3% 6% 5% 10% 3% 7% 4% 1% 1% 1% - 13% 14% 4% 2% 12% * H* * * * IJ* IJ* O* % 3% 4% * 4% 1% 7% 5% 2% 5% 1% - 13% 3% 7% - 2% * * * * J * J* * O * % 1% * * 2% - * - 1% % * * 1% - * * * * * IJM* * * % 3% 2% * - - 7% 2% 5% 4% * - 4% 5% 3% 3% 2% * * * * J * J* * * Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

8 VOTE2022_England.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [ENGLAND] Pg 4 Tb T3 Base: All adults in England 18+ who would vote in election Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn) e party (led by Thera May) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 39% 34% 51% 33% 57% 40% 30% 20% 6% 80% 12% 6% 39% 26% 46% 40% GH* * DGH* H* IKM * ** IK* N * % 34% 31% 11% 22% 24% 24% 42% 54% 77% 7% 7% 20% 11% 47% 26% 18% * * * * CDEF CDEF JKM * ** * OP * % 9% 7% 12% 10% 4% 4% 11% 8% 3% 7% 75% 8% 6% 4% 13% 6% * * * * IJM* ** * N * % 9% 12% 5% 12% 8% 13% 12% 12% 10% 2% - 55% 18% 17% 4% 12% * * * * J * ** JK* O * % 9% 16% 22% 23% 7% 19% 6% 6% 4% 4% 7% 11% 26% 7% 11% 24% A GH* EGH* * GH* * ** IJ* NO* Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

9 VOTE2022_Scotland.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [SCOTLAND] Pg 5 Tb T4 Base: All adults in Scotland 18+ who would vote in election SNP - Scottish National Party (led by Nicola Sturgeon) e party (led by Thera May in the UK and Ruth Davidson in Scotland) Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Richard Leonard in Scotland) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable in the UK and Willie Rennie in Scotland) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 30% 44% 69% 45% 77% 38% 20% 21% - 1% 12% 77% 59% 28% 39% 53% % 30% 14% - 2% 6% - 48% 36% 77% % 42% 14% % 28% 13% 26% 9% 11% 35% 20% 24% - 80% 3% 13% 6% 12% 28% 11% % 3% 4% 5% - - 8% - 9% 1% - 85% - - 6% 4% % 2% 6% - * 6% 16% 12% 2% 21% 3% - 1% - 7% 6% % 7% 18% - 43% - 2% - 8% - 16% - 8% 18% 6% 9% 36% Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

10 VOTE2022_Wal.If the UK General Election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for in your local constituency? [WALES] Pg 6 Tb T5 Base: All adults in Wal 18+ who would vote in election e party (led by Thera May in the UK) Labour party (led by Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Carwyn Jon in Wal) Plaid Cymru (led by Leanne Wood) Liberal Democrats (led by Vince Cable in the UK and Kirsty Williams in Wal) Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 33% 32% 6% - 49% 9% 49% 63% 96% 20% 17% 9% 1% 70% 4% 20% % 17% 27% 43% 6% 15% 18% 39% 20% - 62% % 22% 33% 12% % 13% 3% 5% 55% - 3% - 13% % 1% 4% 28% % 1% 3% 3% - 2% - - 5% - 1% 83% - - 1% 6% % 28% 16% - 3% 8% 71% - - 4% 12% - 15% 72% 3% 24% 56% % 7% 18% 43% 37% 26% - 12% - - 5% % - 5% 12% Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

11 VOTE 2022 OTHER.Who would you vote for? Pg 7 Tb T6 Base: All adults in GB 18+ who would vote for an other party in the next general election Green party UKIP Other party or individual Prefer not to say % 33% 43% 89% 71% 41% 32% 33% 12% 13% 31% - 43% 58% 24% 40% 65% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** ** % 31% 26% 5% 26% 13% 33% 45% 15% 43% 25% - 41% 12% 42% - 12% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** ** % 32% 17% 5% % 13% 46% 34% 2% - 14% 22% 21% 45% 10% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** ** % 5% 15% - 4% 46% 3% 10% 26% 10% 42% - 3% 8% 13% 15% 13% ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** ** Overlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,

12 Vote2017.The last General Election was held on 8th June Did you manage to vote in that General Election? Pg 8 Tb T7 Base: All adults GB 18+ No, did not vote Y, e Y, Labour Y, Liberal Democrat Y, SNP - Scottish National Party Y, UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) Y, Green Party Y, Plaid Cymru Y, BNP (British National Party) Other party or individual Prefer not to answer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verlap formula used - Column Means: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M, N/O/P Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Proportions: Columns Tted (5%): A/B, C/D/E/F/G/H, I/J/K/L/M,