#GE15 & housing. #CIHSW, 17 April

Transcription

1 #GE15 & housing #CIHSW, 17 April

2 #CIHSW

3 Shhhhh! 3 Concept courtesy of David Orr

4 Here s some proof 4 Percentage of manifestoes devoted to housing 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Conservative Party Labour Party overall Source: Social Market Foundation

5 But salience has been building. 5 Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED] % mentioning housing GE (May) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Base: c1,000 GB adults per month (where no measure (x ), previous month % continued)

6 And especially in key electoral battleground of London 6 Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED] % mentioning housing GE (May) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Base: c1,000 GB adults per month, c100+ in London (where no measure (x ), previous month % continued)

7 And now this 7

8 A new housing activism too? 8

9 Reflects generation strains 9

10 Manifest in this 10

11 But also change anxiety 11 Via (HT) David Gulliver

12 Our green & pleasant land 12 Source: Barney Stringer

13 This is a strong narrative 13 Q. Developed land is defined as What proportion of land in England do you think is developed? 3/4 or more 9 Between 1/2 and 3/4 Around half Between 1/4 and 1/2 Less than 1/4 Don't know Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation Actual = 10%:

14 Britain for Homes? the decline of nimbyism 14 Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area? 60 % support % oppose % neither Source: British Social Attitudes Survey

15 Issues play out different locally, demographically, politically 15 % agree There is a housing crisis in my local area (public)/ in my constituency (MPs) 34% 51% Lab voters 52% Lib Dem voters 76% Lab MPs 83% Lib Dem MPs 15% Con MPs Con voters Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH Base: 1,010 GB adults (telephone) 18+, Jan MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov-19 Dec Voters = say certain will vote for party at general election (291 Con, 256 Lab, 68 Lib Dem) MPs; 45 Con, 45 Lab, 11 Lib Dem

16 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Do issues matter anyway? 16 Q. If you had a total of ten points according to how important each of these was to you, how many would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend to voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? Policies Parties Leaders 1 0 Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8-11 Feb Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17 But, I agree with Deborah 17 Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Q. Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Most important issues Unemployment Foreign affairs/defence Poverty/inequality Pensions/ Housing benefits Crime Europe Taxation Immigration Education Economy Health What will decide your vote? Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor For vote decision average of Foreign affairs and defence, pensions and benefits

18 And housing is an image issue too? 18 6

19 Four key drivers to an issue being sticky Engagement Differentiation Ability Will Source: Sir Robert Worcester and Prof. Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI) Explaining Labour s Landslide

20 Is housing sticky?...probably not yet Engagement Differentiation?? Ability Will

21 Key question: will voting help to solve the housing crisis? 21

22 Housing what next? 22 Image: Joe Magee

23 Key: don t just know the audience, really know the audience 23 When you study the successful experiences of transformative movements, you realise the key to success is to achieve a connection between the reality you have diagnosed and what the majority actually feels Pablo Iglesias (Podemost the people s party)

24 There are perils of perception (and perils of misperceiving perceptions) 24

25 You supply, Public prices 25 Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems facing the housing market in Britain today? 47% 31% Size of deposits House prices are too high 30% 28% Lack of social housing Rents too high 20% 21% 13% Not enough new homes being built Too many people from abroad buying homes 12% Not enough schemes for renters to get on ladder Too many second homes 15% 14% Banks not giving out mortgages 14% Housing benefit changes Stamp duty is too high 5% Big homes occupied by 1 or 2 people Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, October Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

26 Supply the role of the public sector is going to be crucial 26

27 Political will (all housing is local) 27

28 N.B. not everyone likes disaster movies 28

29 A warning (in a silver cloud) 29 Q. To what extent do you support or oppose Government borrowing money to fund the building of more affordable housing for people to buy or rent in England? % support Question asked with preamble % neither support/oppose % oppose It is estimated by Cambridge University that England needs to build around 240,000 new homes a year to keep pace with demand. This number of homes has not been built in any single year since the 1970s. During this time, private house builders have never built more than 175,000 homes a year Base: 837 adults aged 16+ across England 13 March-1 April 2015 Base: 790 adults aged 16+ across England 13 March-1 April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

30 Summary: tackling the can t change, won t change issue 301 Amplifying the crisis but building a positive sense that things can be changed Holding politicians to account while consensus-building Housing s retail offer: consumer/citizen, affordability/supply, aspiration/responsibility Renting s stock springboard & safety net Making mixed tenure housebuilding popular practically, locally Position housing as enabler but still distinctive issue

31 A little more politics to finish 31

32 Our latest: no party owns housing 32 Q. I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today. I would like you to tell me whether you think the Conservative Party, the Labour Party or the Liberal Democrats has the best policies on each problem.. Housing % 60 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other None/Don't know Base: c.1,000 GB adults Source: Ipsos MORI

33 Support varies among tenures 33 % vote share aggregate Con Lab LibDem UKIP Owners Mortgage Private renters Social renters Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor aggregate (vote share based on those certain to vote )

34 But it s not just about Con-Lab swing any more 34

35 Turnout is another key element to this 35 Voting power x2.5 owner-occupiers vs renters Estimated 2010 % turnout Source: Ipsos MORI election poll aggregates (GB) % 55% 66% 74% Private renters Social renters Mortgage Owners

36 Base: 768 adults aged 18-75, from Election Uncut Community, 27/03/15 to 29/03/15 Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted Too close to call... Source: Ipsos MORI/BBC Election Uncut Community

37 @BenM_IM