September 2015 Data Release
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1 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 September 2015 Data Release The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) is a composite index designed to track consumers housing-related attitudes, intentions, and perceptions, using six questions from the National Housing Survey (NHS). The Home Purchase Sentiment Index After declining over the past 3 months, the HPSI rose to 83.8 in September. The HPSI is 3 points higher than last month Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) Components of the HPSI Four components of the HPSI improved in September, with the largest increase in Good Time To Sell (+13). Both Home Price and Mortgage Rate net expectation fell (-2 and -1 respectively) since last month. September 2015* Change Since Last Month Change Since Last Year September 2015 HPSI Good Time To Buy Good Time To Sell Home Prices Will Go Up (next 12 months) Mortgage Rates Will Go Down (next 12 months) Confidence About Not Losing Job (next 12 months) Household Income is Significantly Higher (past 12 months) * Net percentages of the component questions used to calculate HPSI, e.g. (Percent Good Time to Buy Percent Bad Time to Buy) = 36 National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
2 Components of the HPSI Good/Bad Time to Buy and Sell a Home The share of respondents who said that it s a good time to buy a house rose 1 percentage point to 64%, continuing a positive trend since July s survey low. Respondents who say it is a... to buy Good Time Bad Time Net Good Time % 48% 68% 43% 63% 61% 63% 64% 35% 34% 33% 36% 2 24% 25% 28% 27% 3 28% Those who say it s a good time to sell rose 5 percentage points to 52%, tying June s survey high. The percent of respondents who say it s a bad time to sell decreased to 36%, setting a new survey low. 8 Respondents who say it is a... to sell Good Time Bad Time Net Good Time % 51% 38% 39% -12% -19% 46% 52% 45% 47% 45% 43% 44% 36% 16% 1% 2% 3% -4 National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
3 Components of the HPSI Home Price and Mortgage Rate Expectations The percent of respondents who said that home prices will go up over the next 12 months fell to 45%. The percent who said that home prices will go down remained constant at 9%. Respondents who say home prices will... in the next 12 months Go Up Go Down Net Go Up 6 52% 5 45% 46% 49% 47% 45% % 37% 39% 41% 38% 36% 2 1 6% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% The share who expect mortgage interest rates to go up in the next 12 months rose 1 percentage point to 55%. The share who say mortgage rates will go down remained at 5%. Respondents who say mortgage rates will... in the next 12 months Go Down Go Up Net Go Down % 45% 52% 51% 54% 55% 4 2 4% 5% 7% 5% 5% 5% % -4-45% -46% -49% -5-8 National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
4 Components of the HPSI Job Concerns and Household Incomes The share of respondents who say they are not concerned with losing their job rose to 84%, while the share of respondents who say they are concerned with losing their job fell to 15%. Respondents who say they are about losing their job in the next 12 months Not Concerned Concerned Net Not Concerned 10 81% 8 85% 82% 83% 84% % 61% 71% 67% 69% 64% % 19% 14% 18% 16% 15% The share of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago rose to 28%, while those who say it is significantly lower rose as well to 13%. 4 Respondents who say their household income is than it was 12 months ago Significantly Higher Significantly Lower Net Significantly Higher 3 22% 25% 24% 27% 24% 28% % 15% 12% 14% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 1 National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
5 Additional National Housing Survey Key Indicators On average, respondents expected rental prices over the next 12 months to rise 4.4%. They expected home prices over the next 12 months to rise 3.1%. Average Expected Percent Change Over the Next 12 Months Home Price Rental Price 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.2% 4.1% 2.8% 4.5% 4.4% % 3.1% 2% 1% The percentage of respondents who expect home rental prices to go up fell back to 54%. The percentage of respondents who expect home rental prices to go down rose to 4%, bouncing back from last month s all-time survey low. 8 Respondents who say home rental prices will... in the next 12 months Go Up Go Down Stay the Same 6 52% 55% 54% 54% 55% 54% % 37% 38% 37% 37% 37% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
6 Additional National Housing Survey Key Indicators The share who say they would buy if they were going to move rose 2 percentage points to 67%, while the share who would rent fell to 29%. Respondents who say they would if they were going to move Buy Rent 8 69% 66% 63% 65% 65% 67% % 28% 32% 28% 31% 29% 2 5 of respondents say it would be easy to obtain a mortgage, falling from August s all-time survey high. At the same time, 47% of respondents say it would be difficult to obtain, rising from August s all-time survey low. Respondents who think it would be to get a home mortgage today Easy Difficult % 48% 52% 48% 55% % 48% 46% 49% 43% 47% 2 National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
7 Additional National Housing Survey Key Indicators The percentage who expect their personal financial situation to get worse over the next 12 months fell to 13%, while the percentage who expect their personal financial situation to get better rose to 45%. 6 Respondents who expect their personal financial situtuation to over the next 12 months Get Better Get Worse Stay the same 42% 44% 45% 44% 43% 45% 4 41% 41% 44% 42% 41% 41% 2 16% 12% 1 12% 14% 13% The share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track rose by 3 percentage points to 35%, while those who say it is on the wrong track fell by 1 percentage point to 57%, shrinking the gap between right and wrong track. Respondents who say the economy is on the... Right Track Wrong Track % 54% 54% 58% 57% 49% % 4 42% 37% 32% 35% National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
8 The National Housing Survey September 2015 APPENDIX About the Survey The National Housing Survey polled a nationally representative sample of 1,003 household financial decision makers (margin of error ±3.1%) aged 18 and older between September 1, 2015 and September 25, Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae. The statistics in this release were estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error, including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Averages of expected price changes were calculated after converting responses of stay the same to and after excluding outliers, which were defined to be responses that were more than two standard deviations from the means. How the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) is Calculated* Net Good Time to Buy Very and Somewhat Good Time To Buy Very and Somewhat Bad Time To Buy Net Good Time to Sell Very and Somewhat Good Time To Sell Very and Somewhat Bad Time To Sell Net Home Prices Will Go Up (next 12 months) Home Prices Will Go Up Home Prices Will Go Down Net Mortgage Rates Will Go Down (next 12 months) Mortgage Rates Will Go Down Mortgage Rates Will Go Up Net Confident About Not Losing Job (next 12 months) Not at All and Not Very Concerned about Losing Job Very and Somewhat Concerned about Losing Job Q12 Q13 Q15 Q20B Q112B Net Household Income is Significantly Higher (past 12 months) Income is Significantly Higher Income is Significantly Lower HPSI = Q12 + Q13 + Q15 + Q20B + Q112B + Q * The HPSI calculation includes the addition of a constant of 63.5 in order to set the index s initial value at 60 as of March 2011, in range with the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Consumer Confidence Index Q116 Time Series Data: xls HPSI Overview: HPSI White Paper: National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
9 Home Purchase Sentiment Index Over the Past 12 Months September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who say it is a good or bad time to buy % Good Time to Buy % Bad Time to Buy Net % Good Time to Buy September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who say it is a good or bad time to sell % Good Time to Sell % Bad Time to Sell Net % Good Time to Sell September October November December January February March April May June July August September National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
10 Percent of respondents who say home prices will go up, go down, or stay the same in the next 12 months % Go Up % Go Down Net % Prices Will Go Up September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up, go down, or stay the same in the next 12 months % Go Up % Go Down Net % Rates Will Go Down September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who say are concerned or not concerned about losing their job % Concerned % Not Concerned Net % Not Concerned September October November December January February March April May June July August September National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
11 Percent of respondents who say their household income is higher, lower, or about the same compared to 12 months ago % Significantly Higher % Significantly Lower Net % Higher September October November December January February March April May June July August September Average home/rental price change expectation % Home Price Change % Rental Price Change September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who say home rental prices will go up, go down, or stay the same in the next 12 months % Go Up % Go Down % Stay the Same September October November December January February March April May June July August September National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
12 Percent of respondents who say they would buy or rent if they were going to move % Buy % Rent September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who think it would be difficult or easy for them to get a home mortgage today % Difficult % Easy September October November December January February March April May June July August September Percent of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get better, get worse, or stay the same in the next 12 months % Get Better % Get Worse % Stay the Same September October November December January February March April May June July August September National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
13 Percent of respondents who think the economy is on the right track or the wrong track % Right Track % Wrong Track September October November December January February March April May June July August September National Housing Survey September 2015 Data Release Fannie Mae. September
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