Public Opinion Monitor

Transcription

1 The Public Opinion Monitor Reflecting the mood and attitudes of British people Signs of growing optimism over personal income as unemployment falls. The TNS-BMRB Public Opinion Monitor tracks public attitudes towards the British economy as well as people s perceptions of their personal financial position, and their assessment of the biggest challenges facing the country today. The month of June saw some unexpectedly positive news with the announcement that unemployment had fallen in the first quarter of This chimes with signs of growing public optimism around pay and job security recorded by the Public Opinion Monitor prior to the announcement. June was also the first month to see a notable rise in the public willingness to spend, whereas previously the emphasis had been very much on the need to save and reduce personal debt burdens. Whilst the public have shown growing optimism towards a potential improvement in their personal situations this month, this has not translated into better expectations for the economy as a whole. The public at large remain pessimistic about the current state of the British economy compared to last year, in addition to seeing very little potential for an upturn in the year ahead. As well to providing an overview of wider public attitudes, this month s Public Opinion Monitor also identifies differences in opinion between men and women, finding that men are notably more optimistic than women regarding both their personal income prospects and the future condition of the British economy. For further details on this data or any other research we conduct, please contact Nick Howat at TNS BMRB. Contents Vol. IX, June British Economy An overview of attitudes towards the state of the British economy as pessimism persists amongst the British public. Personal Income and Employment Signs of improvement in public attitudes towards personal income and job security. Personal Spending Priorities An emerging realignment of spending priorities with a significant increase in consumers stated willingness to spend rather than save. Policy Priority Index Little shift in policy priorities this month, with men and women reporting very similar priority rankings. TNS BMRB TNS Nick Howat Head of Social and Political Attitudes TNS-BMRB 6 More London Place London SE1 2Y t +44 (0) nick.howat@tns-bmrb.co.uk

2 British Economy In May, soon after it was announced that the economy had slipped back into recession, public perceptions of the current economic climate understandably took a turn for the worse. This increase in negative economic sentiment stalled in June, suggesting that April s unexpectedly bad news has not yet triggered a full reverse of the positive trends that have been emerging since December The proportion of people who felt that the economy was in a worse condition than it was 12 months ago remained high at 49% whilst at the same time only 6% of the public said they thought the economy had improved. Whilst these figures do reflect a very low level of optimism about the current condition of the economy, it is interesting that attitudes have not been more negatively impacted by the announcement that the economy had contracted in the first quarter of So, after a spike in pessimism immediately after the announcement, attitudes seem to have stabilised rather than continued to deteriorate. Overall, men and women had similar attitudes regarding the current state of the economy with around half saying they think it is continuing to deteriorate (52% of women vs. 46% of men). When it comes to the future however, men emerge as being twice as positive with 18% saying they expect the economy to improve over the next year, compared to 8% of women. Compared to a year ago, do you think the British economy is doing...? Better than it was 12 months ago Much the same as it was 12 months ago the Thinking about the year ahead, in 12 months time do you think British economy will be doing... Worse than it was 12 months ago Better 2 1 Same Worse Base: 1,229 in June 2012 All Men Women / All male respondents (599) / All female respondents (630)

3 Personal Income and Employment Despite continuing pessimism over the state of the British economy, this month s Public Opinion Monitor has shown a slight increase in positivity around people s personal income and employment prospects. This is particularly noticeable for people who are currently in employment, 26% of who say they expect their pay to increase over the next year; up from 19% in April. This improvement in sentiment has not been matched by a reduction in the proportion expecting their pay to fall (steady at 12%) but rather a fall in the proportion expecting their pay to stay the same; down from 69% in April to 62% in June. Following a sharp drop in April after which only 11% of people felt safer in their job than 12 months ago, a gradual increase has taken place with the proportion reaching 15% in June. An inverse trend is present in the percentage of people feeling less safe than 12 months ago, which has fallen gradually from 39% in March to 33% in June. Once again, a breakdown of male and female attitudes shows men to be feeling significantly more confident about their income prospects with of expecting to see their income increase over the next twelve months, compared to 22% of women. decrease Whether expect income to increase or over next year... 22% 58% 66% 12% 12% Men Women Pay rise Pay will stay the same Pay cut Base: All men who are currently working (354) / All women who are currently working (322) Whether expect income to increase or decrease over next year... Job security compared to 1 year ago... NB: Don t know responses were excluded from the base Base: All respondents who are currently working (676 respondents in June 2012) Don t know responses were excluded from the base Base: All respondents who are currently working (676 respondents in June 2012) Don t know responses were excluded from the base

4 Personal Spending Priorities June saw what could be the beginnings of an important shift for Britrain in terms of consumers willingness to spend, rather than focusing on paying off debts or investing in savings. The Public Opinion Monitor asks respondents what they would do if they received a financial windfall pay off debts, invest in savings or spend it on things for themselves and their families. Responses to this question have been stable since September 2011, with people most likely to say they would use any extra money to pay off debts, followed by those who would prefer to increase their savings or pension. The consistently least popular response was Suppose 5 to spend the money on things for the respondent and their family to enjoy. However, between May and June the proportion who said they would save any additional money fell significantly, from 39% to 32%, and the number who said they would spend a financial windfall rose, from 24% to 29%. This resulted in a rapid narrowing of the gap between the two positions. It is too early to say if this represents a true shift towards a greater emphasis on spending, but, with public sentiment around income and pay gradually improving it could be that consumers are becoming a little more confident in their overall financial position, which could translate into a greater willingness to spend. you received a substantial increase in your income, which of the following would you be most likely to do with it? Spending priorities for June 2012 Credit Card Autherised Signature MR J Smith Use to pay off debts Use it to increase savings or pensions 39% % 4 29% 2 1 Spend it on things for yourself and family

5 Policy Priority Index Every month the TNS-BMRB Policy Priority Index (PPI) asks people to rank eight policy areas in terms of their relative importance in British public life. This month we focus on the varying policy priorities of men and women. Policy Priority Index Policy priorities for June showed little movement on previous months, with the twin economic issues of unemployment (73) and inflation (69) topping the index, followed by the NHS (60) and law and order issues (58). Given the dominance of the economy in the news agenda, as well as the prominence being giving to the NHS bill in recent months, these results are in line with expectations. Men and women displayed the same policy priorities by ranking the eight policy areas in the same order, though there was some differentiation in terms of the index scores assigned to each area. Whilst both men and women viewed unemployment followed by inflation as the top two policy priorities, women gave both issues a very similar index score (74 for unemployment and 72 for inflation). Amongst men there was a much stronger emphasis on unemployment (73), with inflation a more distant second (66). Other notable differences were over the NHS, which both groups ranked 3rd but men awarded a score of 59, compared to a female index score of 63. Similarly, education was 6th for both groups but a higher priority for men (45) than women (40) Mar Jun Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May Jun Overall, the message when viewing the PPI by gender is that, despite some slight differences, men and women have a very similar set of policy priorities.