CONSUMER SURVEY. November 2016

Transcription

1 CONSUMER SURVEY November The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers remained optimistic in November, with the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reported at 115.9, albeit down slightly on the reported the month earlier. Both component indexes, namely the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) and Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), experienced declines of -0.4 and -1.4 points respectively. Nonetheless, respondents were more inclined to consume, with the average propensity to consume ratio observed to climb 1% touched the level of 72%. Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in February 2017, with the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) falling 0.7 points to Pressure on prices are expected to heighten notably on foodstuffs, while the slower rising prices are expected on healthcare and education. Respondents expected less propensity to save in the next six months (May 2017), while acknowledging readiness to take on more debt Consumer Confidence Index Consumers remained optimistic in November. The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were less upbeat in November, but remained optimistic, with the CCI reported to drop -0.9 points to as both component indexes experienced declines. Accordingly, the CECI and CEI fell -0.4 and -1.4 points respectively on the month earlier (Graph 1). Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index Methodology The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1

2 Consumer Survey Respondents in eight cities reported CCI declines, most significantly in Surabaya (-8.0 points) and Samarinda (-6.5 points). Based on spending, however, those with monthly expenses of Rp1-2 million reported the largest CCI declines. Current Economic Condition Index Consumers were slightly less optimistic on the current economic conditions. Respondents were slightly less optimistic on the current economic conditions, reflecting a moderate dip in the CECI of -0.4 points to Congruently, respondents expected declines in current incomes and job availability, with the corresponding indexes falling -2.1 and -1.2 points to and In contrast, respondents acknowledged better conditions for buying durable goods, as the index climbed 1.9 points, which prevented further CECI declines (Graph 2). Graph 2. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Respondents in nine cities confirmed CECI declines, particularly in Mataram (-7.2 points) and Surabaya (-6.4 points). Meanwhile, households spending Rp1-2 million per month reported the largest CECI declines (Table 4). Consumer Expectation Index Consumers were less optimistic on economic conditions in the next six months. Respondents were less optimistic on economic conditions in the next six month, citing future economic moderation and fewer government projects as the main drags, which was indicated by a decrease in the CEI of -1.4 points to in November. Furthermore, respondents were less upbeat on future job availability and business conditions, with the corresponding indexes falling -4.0 and -1.2 points respectively, down to and raise the minimum wage drove optimism concerning incomes in the next six months, with the index increasing 0.9 points to (Graph 3). Real Sector Statistics Division 2

3 Consumer Survey Graph 3. Component of Consumer Expectation Index by Components Regionally, respondents in seven cities reported a lower CEI, especially in Surabaya (-9.5 points) and Samarinda (-7.3 points), while those spending more than Rp5 million per month confirmed the largest CEI declines (Table 4). Price Expectations Index Consumers predicted inflationary pressures to ease in February Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in February 2017, with the 3-month PEI falling from the month earlier to (Graph 4). Respondents blamed pressure on prices are expected to heighten notably on foodstuffs, while slower rising prices are predicted on healthcare and education, with PEI amounted and respectively. Graph 4. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Real Sector Statistics Division 3

4 Consumer Survey Conversely, respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate in six months (May 2017) as demand spikes during the approach to the holy fasting month at the end of May 2017, thus elevating the 6-month PEI from to (Graph 5). Graph 5. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumer Financial Conditions Households were less inclined to save. The average propensity to consume ratio was observed to increase 1.0% to 72.0% in November, contrasting the savings-to-income ratio and debtto-income ratio that fell -0.8% and -0.1% respectively on the previous period to 16.5% and 11.5% (Graph 6). Graph 6. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Consumers predicted a smaller increase in the level of savings in the next six months than one month ago. In line with expected economic moderation, respondents also predicted a smaller increase in the level of savings in the next six months than one month Real Sector Statistics Division 4

5 Consumer Survey ago, indicated by a decrease in the 6-month savings expectation index of -1.0 points to On the other hand, the 6-month debt expectation index recorded a 0.3-point gain on the month earlier to (Graph 7), showing that consumers were preparing to take on more debt. Graph 7. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months Real Sector Statistics Division 5

6 Table 1. Consumer Confidence and Price Expectations (Index) Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Current Economic Condition Index - Current Incomes Employment Conditions Buying Durable Goods Conditions Consumer Expectation Index - Current Incomes Expectation Employment Conditions Expectation Business Activities Expectation B. Price Expectations Index - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead by group: - Foodstuff Food, beverage, cigarettes, and tobacco Housing, electricity, gas, and fuel Clothing Health Transportation, communication, and financial servic Education, recreation, and sports Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 6

7 Table 2. Respondent Figures (percentages) Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Gender - Male Female Household Expenses - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million Ages years years years years years above Educational Level - High School Diploma University Graduate/Post Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 7

8 Table 3. CCI and CEI in 18 Cities Surveyed Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 8

9 Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) 7. Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Samarinda - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Padang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 9

10 Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) 14. Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Banten - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 10

11 Table 4. CCI, CECI and CEI Described by Respondents Expenditure Descriptions Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million Real Sector Statistics Division 11

12 Table 5. Household Income Allocation Described by Respondents Expenditure DESCRIPTION Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) Total IDR 1-2 million IDR 2-3 million IDR 3-4 million IDR 4-5 million > IDR 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Table 6. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months DESCRIPTIONS Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (Nov-Oct) Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Real Sector Statistics Division 12