Namibia Consumer Price Index

Transcription

1 Namibia Consumer Price Index June, 2016 Namibia Statistics Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016 Agency 1

2 OUR MISSION In a coordinated manner produce and disseminate relevant, quality and timely statistics that are fit-for-purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice. OUR VISION To be a high performance institution in statistics delivery OUR SHARED VALUES Excellent Performance Integrity Service focus Transparency Accuracy Partnership

3 Headline inflation The June 2016 annual inflation rate increased to 6.7 percent from 3.0 percent recorded in June 2015, representing an annual increase of 3.7 percentage points. Summary The annual inflation rate for June 2016 was estimated at 6.7 percent which is an increase from 3.0 percent obtained in June of the preceding year. On a monthly basis, inflation rate slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent witnessed in May The moderate slow movement on the monthly inflation rate came about as a result of the decrease in prices of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (from 1.5 to -0.6 percent), Health (from 0.1 to -0.4 percent), Recreation and Culture (from 1.8 to -0.1 percent) as well as Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants (from 0.7 to -0.2 percent). Alex Shimuafeni Statistician - General Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

4 Chart 1: NCPI; Monthly and annual percentage changes; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) 4 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

5 Main Drivers of Inflation During the month of June 2016, the major drivers of the annual inflation rate were recorded in the groups of Food and non-alcoholic beverages (11.3 percent); Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (7.6 percent); Education as well as Hotels, cafes and restaurants each recorded (7.6 percent); Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.1 percent) and Health (6.6 percent). Chart 2: NCPI; June 2016 Annual percentage changes by main groups; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

6 BOX 1: NCPI BASKET WEIGHTS Inflation is calculated based on a basket of goods and services, containing a representative sample of the goods and or services commonly consumed in a country, and weighted in accordance with the relative percentage of expenditure allotted to each of the said goods at household level. The price of these goods and services are then tracked over time, to illustrate the change in the cost of living over time. As spending patterns change, new products and services are added to the basket, and the basket reweighted so as to better capture the current spending patterns of the consumer at the current point in time. As such, the inflation basket is generally reconstituted every five years. In Namibia, the basket was last rebased in 2013, using household expenditure data collected in the 2009/10 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. The basket now contains over 350 items, grouped into 12 categories and 55 subcategories, for which prices are collected on a monthly basis from more than 900 retail outlets. Namibian inflation however, is largely determined by three categories of the overall NCPI basket, namely: (i) Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, (ii) Food and non-alcoholic beverages and (iii) Transport, which cumulatively make up just under 60 percent of the total inflation basket. Additionally, following the rebasing of the NCPI basket in 2013, Alcoholic beverages and tobacco make up an additional 12.6 percent of the basket, meaning that the four largest categories represent well over 70 percent of the total basket. As such, a large increase in inflation in these categories has a greater impact on the overall inflation than do increases in the lower weighted categories. Thus, it is rare to see major increases in overall inflation attributed to the lower weighted categories, despite the fact that these categories may have seen relatively high inflation in their own right. 6 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

7 Major Groups Food and non alcoholic beverages The Food and non-alcoholic beverages category of inflation is usually a key driver of inflation in Namibia due to the fact that it tends to be fairly volatile, usually above average inflation. The annual inflation rate for this category stood at 11.3 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points as compared to 4.1 percent obtained during the same period a year earlier. The sharp increase in the food component emanated from price increase in all the subcomponents comprised of the Food and non-alcoholic group with the exception of Meat which slowed to 4.5 percent as compared to 6.3 percent registered in June The monthly inflation rate for the food category stood at -0.6 compared to 1.4 percent recorded in the previous month. Chart 3: NCPI; Annual inflation for selected food sub-categories; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

8 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco The annual inflation rate for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco recorded a slight decrease from 7.2 percent recorded in June 2015 to 7.1 per cent witnessed in June This development resulted from decreases registered in the price level of tobacco which slowed to 4.3 percent in June 2016 down from 10.4 percent obtained in June The monthly inflation for this group remained unchanged at 0.6 percent during the month under review as compared to May Chart 4: NCPI; Annual inflation for Alcohol beverage and tobacco; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) 8 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

9 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels The annual inflation rate for the Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels group increased to 7.6 percent from 2.5 percent recorded the same month last year. May of the preceding year respectively. Chart 5: NCPI; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

10 Minor Groups The annual inflation rates of the minor groups comprising the NCPI were Hotels, cafés and restaurants and Education (each recording a 7.6 percent; Health (6.6 percent), Furnishing, household equipment etc. (6.3 percent); Recreation and culture (5.3 percent); Miscellaneous goods and services (4.3 percent); Communication (2.4 percent) and Clothing and footwear group registering the lowest annual inflation rates of (-1.7 percent). Chart 6: NCPI; Annual inflation for minor groups (Dec 2012 = 100) 10 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

11 BOX 2: CHART OF THE MONTH Chart 7: NCPI; Annual inflation for Communication; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) The annual inflation rate for Communication increased to 2.4 percent in June 2016 as compared to 0.1 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier. The increase in this group emanated from increases in the prices of all services comprising this component between June 2015 and June This is the highest annual inflation rate recorded in this category since December 2013 when it was estimated at -0.1 percent. Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

12 Goods And Services Inflation The Index for Goods and Services in June 2016 stood at and respectively as compared to the corresponding indices of and recorded during the same period last year. During the month of June 2016, the monthly and annual inflation rates for Goods were 0.6 and 7.1 percent while those for Services stood at 0.0 and 6.2 percent. Corresponding rates recorded during the same period in the previous year stood at 0.5 and 3.1 percent and 0.1 and 2.9 percent respectively. Chart 8: NCPI; Goods and Services annual inflation rates; June 2016 (Dec 2012 = 100) 12 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

13 Table 1: Namibia CPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100) Period Index M - O - M Y - O -Y 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec An. Av Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec An. Av Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Namibia Consumer An. Price Av Index:June 112.3, Jan

14 Table 1: Namibia CPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100) Period Index M - O - M Y - O -Y 2016 Jan Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016

15 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

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17 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June,

18 Namibia Statistics Agency P. O. Box 2133, Windhoek, FGI House, Post Street Mall 18 Namibia Consumer Price Index:June, 2016