R E T A I L S A L E S S U R V E Y
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1 R E T A I L S A L E S S U R V E Y Desember 2004 Retail sales growth slowly General prices and loan interest rates kept predicting to increase Development of Retail Sales Retail Sales growth lower than a month before The Desember 2004 Retail Survey indicated that retail sales retained to increase but lower than a month before. Survey indicated that sales increased by 0,1%. The slowly growth is related to after peak season in Idul Fitri in the middle of November The increase mainly recorded on writing equipment followed by motor vehicles spareparts; handicrafts arts and toys; chemicals; construction materials; gasoline. While the apparels and food beverages and tobacco decreased. Graph 1 Real Retail Sales Index 125 Real Index *) preliminary figure estimated figure Methodology Retail Sales Survey is a monthly survey to seek nominal sales value for certain items according to ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) of current month and its prediction for the following month. Respondents as sample panel comprised about 300 retailers located in Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya and Medan. The composite index construction is based on weighted-average of each classification. Real index calculation uses CPI as deflator of nominal index. 1
2 COMMODITIES SALES Graph 2 Food and Tobbacco Sales Graph 3 Apparels Sales 220 Food and Tobacco Apparels Graph 4 Household Appliances Sales Graph 5 Chemicals Sales 1 Household appliances Chemicals Graph 6 Construction Materials Sales Graph 7 Gasoline Sales Constructiom Materials 135 Gasoline Jan MarMay July Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan 2
3 Graph 8 Writing Equipment Sales Graph 9 Motor vehicles Spareparts Sales 220 Writing Equipment Motor vehicles Spareparts Graph 10 Handicrafts, arts and toys Sales Handicrafts, arts & toys 80 Jan Mar MayJuly Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan 3
4 Retail Sales Survey Specifically, the increase of real retail sales index was due to: - The increase of sales in writing equipment category (17,1%) mainly occurred in Semarang (mainly in sub category of stationary). Most of the goods were increase in sales - The increase of sales in motor vehicles spareparts category (11,8%) mainly occurred in Medan. - The increase of sales in handicrafts arts and toys category (8,2%) mainly occurred in Surabaya (mainly in sub category of arts). - The increase of sales in chemicals category (7,0%) mainly occurred in Bandung (mainly in sub category of cosmetic). - The increase of sales in construction materials category (4,8%) mainly occurred in Semarang (mainly in sub category of sand). - The increase of sales in gasoline category (1,9%) mainly occurred in Jakarta (mainly in sub category of gas). DESCRIPTION TABLE 1 GROWTH ( m-t-m ) OF RETAIL SALES REAL INDEX Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov Dec*) Jan Food, beverages and tobacco 0,2-17,4-17,0 4,4-5,6-1,8-1,4 0,3 4,6 1,2 1,1 16,0-9,5-2,6 Apparels 18,6-34,0 32,3-2,0 9,7-5,8-5,5 3,1 1,7 0,9 9,4 14,8-8,0-4,0 Household appliances 11,6-14,2-8,9 10,6-7,5-0,3-7,8 1,9 11,3-0,6 4,2 3,8 0,0-0,9 Chemicals -0,4-5,7-5,0 8,8-4,0 0,8 6,2-7,3 13,6-0,1 7,5-10,9 7,0-0,9 Construction materials 23,5 26,3-37,4-12,8-1,2-3,8-4,7 8,3-4,1-0,9 13,5 9,0 4,8-15,5 Gasoline 5,1-0,4 0,9 1,7-5,0-1,9 0,3 3,6 1,4 1,9-1,0-5,2 1,9-2,5 Writing equipment 23,4-17,3 0,9 12,6-2,0 1,8 3,4 13,2 8,0-7,0-10,0-3,1 17,1-5,3 Motor vehicles spareparts 2,5-2,5-5,7 7,5 2,2-4,7-4,2-3,3-5,7 11,0-0,6 1,9 11,8 0,0 Handicrafts, arts, and toys 7,7-20,7-3,4-8,8 8,8 3,4 2,8 5,7 8,2 1,7-0,5 10,3 8,2-13,9 TOTAL INDEX 7,8-13,9-2,7 2,6 0,5-2,7-2,1 1,3 3,1 1,9 3,1 6,1 0,1-3,7 *) preliminary figure estimated figure Retail Sales on prospects Sales in January 2004 were estimated to decrease Survey indicated that sales in the January 2005 continues to decrease by 3,7%. All the group of goods experienced decreased, except for motor vehicles spareparts category. By category, the group of goods most expected to decrease were on construction materials followed by handicrafts arts and toys; writing equipment etc. Expectation on General Prices and Loan Interest Rates Respondents expected that general prices and loan interest rates index General prices and loan interest rates were estimated to increase, but in decreasing pattern would be increase in the next 1-month, 3-month and 6-month, but in decreasing pattern. 4
5 Retail Sales Survey TABLE 2 PRICE AND INTEREST RATES EXPECTATION VARIABLE Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov Dec General Price : Next 1 month 129,1 127,4 137,5 122,9 122,6,5 121,7 124,4 126,4 136,2 136,7 153,2 149,8 Next 3 month 116,7 123,8 121,0 117,5 121,6 125,7 117,1 122,0 134,7 138,1 132,0 144,2 135,8 Next 6 month 111,9 115,6 118,5 117,1 123,3 128,5 123,3 119,9 117,3 118,5 118,3 131,3 119,2 Loan Interest Rate : Next 1 month 93,9 92,5 94,3 95,7 99,1 104,9 101,9 109,3,7 118,0 107,3 107,4 105,4 Next 3 month 86,4 86,9 102,8 97,1 102,9 106,3 105,3 105,4 101,0 109,3 108,4 109,9 102,0 Next 6 month 88,2 81,7 101,4 102,5 112,2 113,5 108,5 105,9 106,4 108,3 105,8 105,0 101,5 Notes : Since March 2003, Balance Score Method (net balance + ) has been adopted to construct the Price Expectation and Interest Rates Expectation Indexes. When the index is above point indicate an increase of Price and Interest Rates, and vise versa. The decreasing pattern mainly caused by higher percentage respondent that answered general prices and loan interest rates in the next 1-month, 3-month and 6-month were predicted in the same level. (Index) 1 Graph 11 Price Expectation and Actual Prices 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2005 Price Expectation next month hence Price Expectation 3 months hence Price Expectation 6 months hence Actual Inflation -1,0 (Index) 80 Graph 12 Interest Rates Expectation and SBI Rates 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 60 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Interest Rates Expectation next month hence Interest Rates Expectation 6 months hence Interest Rates Expectation 3 months hence SBI (1 month) 6,0 5
6 Retail Sales Survey In December 2004, sales increase in 3 cities and decrease in 2 cities Retail Survey by Regions By regions, among 5 big cities surveyed, 3 cities indicated increasing sales (Jakarta, Surabaya and Medan) and 3 cities indicated increasing sales i.e. Bandung and Semarang. In January 2005, all cities indicated decreasing sales. DESCRIPTION TABLE 3 GROWTH ( m-t-m ) OF INDEX PER CITY OF RETAIL SALES REAL Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov Dec*) Jan Jakarta 17,3-21,8 0,2 1,1 2,4-4,5-1,8 1,1 4,9 3,6 2,8 4,2 3,8-3,2 Bandung 4,3-1,4-1,3 13,8-2,9 0,7 1,4-0,9 1,0-0,5 2,5 4,7-6,3-1,7 Surabaya 1,6 0,2-2,9 0,3-2,9 0,0-2,1 4,1 2,1-3,5 3,8 1,2 1,9-6,5 Medan 2,4-1,3-20,5-5,7-1,4-1,7 0,1-1,1 2,4 4,1 3,9 2,0 0,4-0,2 Semarang -2,2-0,6 1,4 4,1-9,0 4,8 1,2-3,6 0,3-4,5 2,5 12,3-0,2-4,8 TOTAL INDEX 7,8-13,9-2,7 2,6 0,5-2,7-2,1 1,3 3,1 1,9 3,1 6,1 0,1-3,7 *) preliminary figure estimated figure TABLE 4 SHARE PER CATEGORY OF RETAIL SALES REAL INDEX DESCRIPTION Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov Dec*) Jan Food and tobacco 35,5 29,3 24,4 25,4 24,0 23,6 23,2 23,3 24,4 24,7 24,9 28,9 26,2 25,5 Apparels 35,5 23,4 31,0 30,4 33,3 29,3 29,6 30,5 31,1 31,4 34,3 39,4 36,2 34,8 Household appliances 10,0 8,6 7,8 8,7 8,0 8,0 7,4 7,5 8,4 8,3 8,7 9,0 9,0 8,9 Chemicals 12,8 12,1 11,5 12,5 12,0 12,8 12,8 11,9 13,5 13,5 14,5 13,0 13,9 13,7 Construction materials 8,5 10,8 6,7 5,9 5,8 5,5 5,3 5,7 5,5 5,4 6,2 6,7 7,1 6,0 Gasoline 15,2 15,1 15,2 15,5 14,9 14,6 14,6 15,1 15,4 15,7 15,5 14,7 15,0 14,6 Writing equipment 5,5 4,6 5,2 5,9 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,9 7,4 6,9 6,2 6,0 7,0 6,7 Motor vehicles spareparts 23,9 23,3 22,0 23,7 24,2 23,0 22,0 21,3 20,1 22,3 22,2 22,6 25,3 25,3 Handicrafts, arts, and toys 9,0 7,2 6,9 6,3 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,7 8,4 8,5 8,5 9,3 10,1 8,7 TOTAL INDEX 156,0 134,4,8 134,1 134,7 129,8 128,4,0 134,0 136,6,9 149,6 149,7 144,1 *) preliminary figure estimated figure TABLE 5 INDEX PER CATEGORY OF RETAIL SALES REAL DESCRIPTION Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep Oct Nov Dec*) Jan Food and tobacco 216,9 179,1 148,7 155,3 146,5 143,9 141,9 142,2 148,7,5 152,3 176,6 159,9 155,7 Apparels 228,7,9 199,6 195,6 214,5 202,0 1,9 196,8 200,2 202,0 220,9 253,7 233,5 224,1 Household appliances 166,0 142,4 129,8 143,6 132,8 132,5 122,2 124,5 138,6 137,7 143,5 148,9 148,9 147,6 Chemicals 124,0 116,9 111,0,8 116,0 116,9 124,2 115,2,8,7,5 125,2 134,0 132,8 Construction materials 89,9 113,5 71,1 61,5 60,8 58,5 55,7 60,3 57,9 57,3 65,1,9 74,4 62,8 Gasoline 117,3 116,9 117,9 121,0 114,9 112,8 113,1 117,1 118,8 121,1 119,8 113,6 115,8 112,8 Writing equipment,2 132,5 151,1 1,1 166,7 169,7 175,5 198,8 214,7 199,7 179,9 174,2 204,0 193,1 Motor vehicles spareparts 132,2 128,9 121,5,6 133,5 127,2 121,8 117,7 111,0 123,2 122,5 124,8 139,5 139,5 Handicrafts, arts, and toys 116,6 92,4 89,3 81,4 88,6 91,6 94,2 99,5 107,7 109,5 109,0,2,0 111,9 TOTAL INDEX 156,0 134,4,8 134,1 134,7 131,1 128,4,0 134,0 136,6,9 149,6 149,7 144,1 *) preliminary figure estimated figure 6
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