CONSUMER SURVEY. January 2018

Transcription

1 CONSUMER SURVEY January 2018 The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey showed that consumers remained upbeat on current economic dynamics in January 2018, with no significant change reported in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), moderating slightly from to Consumer remained optimistic due to rising current incomes and expectations of higher incomes in the next six months. In contrast, however, consumers perceived deteriorating conditions for buying durable goods and less job availability in the next six months, which undermined the optimism. The survey also revealed a decline of 2.1 points in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to a level of in January 2018, conveying that consumers predicted milder inflationary pressures in April 2018 as concerns eased over rising fuel prices and electricity rates, coupled with expectations of increasing food supply. Nevertheless, inflationary pressures were expected to reappear in the next 6 months (July 2018) as the distribution of goods struggles to recover post-eid-ul-fitr. A. Consumer Confidence Consumers remained upbeat in January A1. Consumer Confidence Index Consumers remained upbeat on current economic dynamics at the beginning of the new year despite a slight dip in confidence compared to the previous period, but consumers were still more optimistic than during the same period one year ago. Such developments were explained by a CCI of in January 2018, down slightly from in December but up markedly from in January. Both CCI components contributed to the decline in January 2018, namely the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI), which dropped 0.3 points to 114.8, as well as the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), falling 0.2 points to (Graph 1). In terms of the respondent brackets, those spending Rp4.1-5 million per month and those aged reported the most significant CCI declines. Regionally, however, respondents in 8 of the cities surveyed confirmed a decrease in the CCI, particularly in Denpasar (10.9 points), Surabaya (9.1 points) and Padang (8.7 points). Methodology The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1

2 Consumer Survey Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. CCI by A2. Current Economic Condition Index Consumers were still optimistic on prevailing economic conditions. Consumers continued to perceive positive economic conditions despite less optimism than reported in the previous survey, as reflected by a slight dip of 0.3 points in the CECI from in December to in January The decline stemmed from the conditions for buying durable goods and job availability, for which the indexes were observed to fall by 3.9 points and 1.3 points to and respectively (Graph 4). Graph 4. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Real Sector Statistics Division 2

3 Consumer Survey Respondents spending Rp1-2 million monthly were most likely to experience a deterioration in the conditions for buying durable goods along with those of retirement age (over 60) (Graph 5 and 6), with the declines affecting electronic goods (mobile phones, televisions, computers, etc.) as well as household furniture. degree experienced less job availability in January 2018, while those with an associate degree (D3) found it hardest to secure employment (Graph 7). From an age perspective, respondents in the age bracket perceived less job availability in the reporting period (Graph 8). Graph 5. Buying durable goods Index by Spending Level Graph 6. Buying durable goods Index by Graph 7. Job Availability Index by Respondents Educational Level Graph 8. Job Availability Index by Graph 9. Income Index by Spending Level Graph 10. Income Index Ages Real Sector Statistics Division 3

4 Consumer Survey Conversely, the Consumer Income Index climbed from to in January, affecting all spending and age groups (Graph 10) in line with an 8.71% hike in the minimum wage for 2018 (Source: Ministry of Manpower of The Republic of Indonesia). A3. Consumer Expectation Index Consumers remained upbeat on future economic dynamics. Consumer remained optimistic on future economic dynamics, albeit not as upbeat as during the previous period, with the CEI moderating slightly in January 2018 from to Although respondents still expected incomes to rise, less job availability and business conditions undermined optimism in future economic conditions (Graph 11). Graph 11. Consumer Expectation Index by Components In January 2018, respondents were less buoyant concerning future job availability, as reflected by a decrease of 1.8 points in the corresponding index to 123.4, with the declines affecting nearly all education and age brackets, most significantly those with an associate degree (D3) as well as respondents aged (Graph 12 and 13). Graph 12. Job Availability Expectation Index by Respondents Educational Level Graph 13. Job Availability Expectation Respondents maintained relatively stable expectations concerning future business conditions, as the index only moved from to Respondents cited infrastructure improvements, greater access to bank financing and controlled inflation for the maintained optimism. Interestingly, respondents spending Rp2-3 million and Rp4.1-5 million per month reported increases in the Real Sector Statistics Division 4

5 Consumer Survey business condition expectation index, while all other spending groups experienced declines. In terms of age, however, respondents from years old were more upbeat on future business conditions, while those above 50 were less optimistic. Graph 14. Business Condition Expectation Index by Spending Level Graph 15. Business Condition Index The Income Expectations Index rose 1.2 points to in January 2018, with the respondents crediting relatively stable business conditions for the expected increase in future turnover/income. Respondents spending Rp1-2 million and more than Rp4 million monthly reported index gains along with those aged (Graph 16 and 17). Graph 16. Income Expectation Index by Spending Level Graph 17. Income Expectation Index by B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1. Consumer Income Consumers were more inclined to repay loans. Consumers were more inclined to repay existing loans in line with rising consumer incomes in January 2018, while the propensity to consume decreased with purchases of durable goods. Accordingly, the debt service to income ratio increased from 13.8% to 15.0% and the average propensity to consume ratio fell from 65.0% in December to 64.4% in January 2018 (Graph 18). Households spending Rp2.1-3 million and in excess of Rp4.1 million per month were more predisposed to repaying their loans, while the same households were also less inclined to consume (Graph 19 and 20). Real Sector Statistics Division 5

6 Consumer Survey Graph 18. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Graph 19. Loan Repayment Alocation by Spending Level Graph 20. Consumption Alocation by Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Households expected to spend less on consumption in the next three months. Households expected to spend less on consumption in the next three months (March 2018), indicated by a 2.1-point decrease in the 3-month household consumption expectation index to (Graph 21) as reported by households spending Rp3.1-4 million and more than Rp5 million per month. Graph 21. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Graph 22. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months For the upcoming six months, households expected to save and borrow more in line with higher incomes. The savings and debt expectation indexes, therefore, increased by 3.2 points each to and respectively (Graph 22). Respondents spending Rp1-5 million monthly expected to save more in the next six months, while those spending Rp1-2 million, Rp3.1-4 and in excess of Rp5 million per month were more inclined to borrow in the next six months. Real Sector Statistics Division 6

7 Consumer Survey B3. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Most respondents stated their intention to place disposable income in savings/term deposits. A smaller percentage of respondents planned to buy or build a house. Households confirmed their preference for banking instruments, such as savings/term deposits, when placing disposable income over the next 12 months, with 48.1% of respondents expressing a proclivity for savings/term deposits in January 2018, down from 49.3% the month earlier. In addition to savings/terms deposits, 21.3% of respondents preferred property and 16.9% favoured gold/jewellery. The percentage of respondents who stated a distinct interest in buying or building a house (or extension) during the upcoming 12 months (February 2018 January 2019) fell to 6.9%. Furthermore, the percentage of respondents who thought that buying or building a house was a possibility decreased from 30.6% to 28.9% (Graph 24). Graph 23. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Graph 24. Plan to Buy/Build Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in April C1. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 Months The 3-month PEI fell 2.1 points in January 2018 to a level of 171.1, conveying that consumers predicted milder inflationary pressures in April 2018 (Graph 25) as concerns eased over rising fuel prices and electricity rates, coupled with expectations of increasing food supply. Spatially, respondents in 11 cities reported a lower 3-month PEI, particularly in Ambon (11.9 points) and Semarang (10 points). Graph 25. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Real Sector Statistics Division 7

8 Consumer Survey C2. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 6 Months Respondents predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in July Conversely, the latest Consumer Survey revealed a bump of 1.6 points in the 6-month PEI (July 2018) on the previous period to 180.0, indicating that consumers predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures as the distribution of goods struggles to recover post-eid. Regionally, respondents in 13 cities predicted an accumulation of inflationary pressures in the next 6 months, most significantly in Pontianak (23.5 points) and Pangkal Pinang (21.5 points). Graph 26. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months C3. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 12 Months Respondents also predicted inflationary pressures to escalate in the next 12 months. Consumers predicted heightened inflationary pressures in the next 12 months, with the corresponding 12-month PEI rising from to in the reporting period. The upward trend was predicted by respondents in 11 cities, primarily in Pangkal Pinang (31.5 points) and Pontianak (24 points). Graph 27. Price Expectation Index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 8

9 Table 1. Consumer Confidence Index and Prices Expectation Index Descriptions 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Current Economic Condition Index (compared to the previous 6 months) - Current Incomes Index Job Availability Index Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index Consumer Expectation Index (the next 6 months compared to the current condition) - Incomes Expectation Index Job Availability Expectation Index Business Activities Expectation Index B. Price Expectations Index - Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 9

10 Table 2. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Expenditure Level 2018 Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B1. Current Income Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B2. Job Availability Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C1. Incomes Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C2. Job Availability Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million Real Sector Statistics Division 10

11 Descriptions Table 3. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Age 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) year year year year >60 year B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) year year year year >60 year C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) year year year year >60 year B1. Current Income Index year year year year >60 year B2. Job Availability Index year year year year >60 year B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index year year year year >60 year C1. Incomes Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C2. Job Availability Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C3. Business Activities Expectation Index year year year year >60 year Real Sector Statistics Division 11

12 Table 4. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Education Level 2018 Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B1. Current Income Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B2. Job Availability Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C1. Incomes Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C2. Job Availability Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 12

13 Table 5. Household Income Allocation by Respondents Expenditure Level 2018 Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Total - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings F. > Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Table 6. Consumption, Saving and Debt Expectation Descriptions 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Total - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months F. > Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months Real Sector Statistics Division 13

14 Table 7. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Descriptions 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan - Dec) A. Excess Income Allocation Plan in the Next 12 Months - Saving/ Deposit Gold/ Jewelry Equity/ Mutual funds Property (land, house, apartment) Others A. House Purchase/Construction Plan in the Next 12 Months - Very Possible Possible No Desire Real Sector Statistics Division 14

15 Description Table 8. Consumer Confidence and Price Expectation Index by Region 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan-Dec) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Samarinda - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 15

16 2018 Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan (Jan-Dec) 11. Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Padang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Banten Description - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 16

17 Table 9. Respondent Figures Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Jan 2018 Gender - Male Female Household Expenses - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million Ages years years years years years above Educational Level - High School Diploma University Graduate/Post Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 17