SURVEI KONSUMEN CONSUMER SURVEY. October 2005

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1 CONSUMER SURVEY SURVEI KONSUMEN October? Consumers confidence dropped to the lowest level for the first time during the last two years? Inflation is expected to increase? Economic outlook is relatevely stable The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to the lowest level for the first time during the last two years Consumers confidence dropped 13,1 points Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey in October showed a sharply decline on Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) by 13.1 points from 90.1 to This indicated that consumer pessimism was in the lowest level again after it hit its first lowest level in May The pessimism of the CCI was a result of lower Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) from 78.3 to 64.4, and a sharply declined of Consumers Expectation Index from to The primary cause of the price increase of primary good were the increase of fuel prices, the decrease of income as the decrease of business omzet, and unfavorable factors for economy to expand its job availability led the consumer confidence to drop. Graph 1 Consumer Confidence Index 150 (Index) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct Current Economic Condition Index Consumer Expectation Index Consumer Confidence Index Methodolog y Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey whose more than 4,350 households as respondents (purposive random sampling) in 16 cities spreaded over Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, BandarLampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, and Pangkal Pinang. Data canvassing run through interviews by telephone and by direct visits in particular cities that based on rotated system. Balance Score Method (net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, when the index is above 100 points indicate an optimism (positive responses) and vice versa. 1

2 Increasing number of consumers expected their future income would be lower Consumers expected higher prices Consumer Income Expectation Most respondents, 52.9% of those surveyed in October expected their stable income for the next six months. Meanwhile 31.9% of them (down from 34.8% in the previous survey) expected their income would be higher and 15.2% of them (up from 9.9% in the previous survey) expected their income would be lower. Expectation on Prices Based on October survey, most of consumers (89.3%) stated that the general prices will increase (inflation) for the next six months. This percentage of respondents was slightly higher that previous month survey result at 86.9 %. The uptrend of inflation expectation might be caused by the increase of fuel prices, the weakening of Rupiah againts to American Dollar, the unstable of security/soci al political conditions, and the decrease of availability of goods/services. Meanwhile, only about 2.2% of all respondents surveyed (3.2% in the September survey) expected the lower prices. Specifically, consumers considered that group of food stuffs would have strong inflation, followed by transportation and communication, housing and building materials, education, and cloths. As reference, actual October inflation rate was 8.70%, jumped from 0.69% in the previous month (see graph 2), while year-to-date inflation was 15.65%, and year -on-year (y-o-y) inflation was 17.89% (compared to 9.06% in September ). 200,0 Graph 2 Price expectation and actual price 6 months hence (Index = % up - % down + 100) % 10,0 180,0 8,0 160,0 6,0 140,0 4,0 120,0 2,0 100,0 0,0 80,0 Oct 2003 Dec Feb 2004 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Price Expectation 6 month hence (Index) Apr Jun Ags Oct Dec Feb 2006 Apr Actual Inflation (% m-t-m) -2,0 Notes : For the analysis of purpose, balance score for price indicator in Graph 2 is calculated by % up - % down When index =100 indicates that consumer expect stable price. When index > 100 indicates that consumers expect higher price (inflation), and vice versa. Majority of consumers expected a stable interest rate Expectation on Interest Rate Among 36.7% of respondents surveyed (relatively the same as in the September survey) expected higher interest rate, and 17.0% of respondents surveyed (16.4% in the September survey) expected lower interest rate. Meanwhile, majority of respondents surveyed in October, (46.3%) expected stable interest rate for the next six months (46.8% in the September survey). 2

3 Graph 3 Interest rate expectation and 1 month SBI interest rate 160,0 (Index= %up-%down+100) (%) 14,0 150,0 13,0 140,0 12,0 130,0 11,0 120,0 10,0 110,0 9,0 100,0 8,0 90,0 7,0 80,0 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Ags Oct Dec Feb Apr 2006 Interest rate expectation (Index) SBI-1 month (%) 6,0 Notes : For the analysis of purpose, balance score for interest rate indicator in Graph 3 is calculated by % up - % down When index =100 indicates that consumer expect stable interest rate. When index > 100 indicates that consumers expect higher interest rate, and vice versa. Economic Outlook Consumer optimisms of economic outlook decreased Expectation on buying durable goods become more pessimistic In October survey, consumer optimisms of the economic outlook for the next six months decreased. Overall, a favorable economic prospects was expected only by 18.7% respondents (down from 24.2% in the previous survey), while, those who expected unfavorable economic prospects for 6 months ahead was 31.5% consumers (rose from 23.7% in the previous survey). Expectation on Buying Durable Goods As the previous survey, the survey still indicated that this time was improper time to buy durable goods (the index was still below 100). The index dropped from 60.1 to Parallel with this condition, most consumers expected not to buy durable goods for 6 months (the index was still below 100), except for the education (see graph 4 and table 1). Graph 4 The development of buying intention on durable goods index 180 (Index) 160 Education Vacation Buying/Repairing House Household appliances 60 Cars Household equipments Motor cycles Aug SepOct NovDecJan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNovDecJanFeb MarApr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Table 1 3

4 Consumer Confidence, Price Expectation, Consumption Plan, and Economic Indicator (index) Descriptions Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Consumer Confidence Index 65,6 77,3 79,7 82,9 82,4 92,4 100,7 119,1 91,8 88,4 97,6 101,7 98,9 99,7 90,1 76,9 Present Situation 56,0 66,2 71,0 73,7 71,6 74,5 81,1 101,8 79,8 75,1 84,3 87,2 86,6 84,8 78,3 64,4 Expectations 75,2 88,4 88,4 92,2 93,2 110,2 120,2 136,3 103,8 101,7 110,9 116,2 111,2 114,5 101,8 89,4 Appraisal of Present Situation Family Income 106,2 121,1 125,1 127,4 128,0 127,9 136,5 124,7 107,7 103,3 112,6 116,1 115,7 115,8 110,0 97,7 Buying durable goods Conditions 49,0 59,7 70,2 73,2 68,3 68,5 75,4 84,6 59,2 60,0 67,4 70,0 71,7 67,6 60,1 45,9 Employment Conditions 12,8 17,7 17,8 20,5 18,5 27,1 31,3 96,1 72,5 62,1 72,8 75,5 72,4 71,1 64,9 49,7 (before Oct 2004: Unemployment Condition) Expectations for Six Months Hence Family Income 129,1 140,8 145,2 144,8 146,3 154,4 159,3 146,0 121,7 122,5 126,8 133,8 131,4 132,6 124,9 116,7 Economic 77,5 99,7 99,6 108,1 108,5 134,7 146,7 147,0 103,9 102,8 117,3 123,6 113,4 118,6 100,5 87,3 Employment 18,9 24,6 20,3 23,6 24,7 41,6 54,7 116,0 85,8 80,0 88,5 91,2 88,7 92,3 80,0 64,4 (before Oct 2004: Unemployment Expectation) Price Expectations for six Months Hence General Price 15,1 22,2 21,5 22,3 25,3 35,1 37,6 23,8 13,2 21,5 26,4 28,2 22,1 23,5 16,2 12,9 Food Stuff 16,0 25,2 21,2 25,5 27,3 32,4 34, Clothings 29,9 39,5 35,0 39,5 40,7 45,4 45, Housing and Building materials 14,2 19,6 19,9 22,6 17,3 17,8 21, Trans.& Communication 15,0 20,7 19,2 23,1 27,1 24,8 31, Groups of comodities with highest price increase in 6 months hence (in percentage) Food Stuff ,1 41,6 40,1 40,6 35,1 35,0 36,3 37,3 43,7 Clothings ,8 2,4 2,8 2,5 3,9 2,7 3,6 3,2 2,7 Housing and Building materials ,6 17,9 22,9 27,3 26,8 21,5 21,9 18,9 15,7 Trans.& Communication ,5 28,0 22,0 15,4 15,7 21,8 20,2 28,0 29,4 Education ,6 7,6 10,3 11,3 15,3 14,7 15,1 9,1 5,7 Others ,4 2,6 1,9 2,9 3,2 4,2 2,9 3,4 2,9 Plans to Consume within Six Months Clothings 158,8 160,3 169,9 161,1 165,4 174,4 172, Automobiles 38,6 44,7 51,4 43,3 49,4 53,4 59, Buying/Repairing House 62,9 65,1 69,6 65,7 69,1 77,4 76,6 72,3 59,1 60,5 63,2 66,7 60,4 61,4 57,9 50,8 Households'appliances 54,4 60,9 68,0 65,7 66,5 77,1 77,0 81,3 63,7 67,0 70,8 73,5 67,8 74,5 66,8 57,9 Households'equipments 50,5 58,4 64,2 61,8 62,5 73,0 74,4 70,9 59,1 59,1 63,9 67,8 63,1 66,8 62,8 57,5 Cars 50,5 58,4 64,2 61,8 62,5 73,0 74,4 30,5 23,7 23,7 24,5 27,0 23,2 23,7 23,1 17,2 Motor cycles 50,5 58,4 64,2 61,8 62,5 73,0 74,4 44,2 38,7 37,0 41,6 43,8 38,2 41,3 39,3 31,7 Education ,7 133,9 138,2 131,5 135,5 132,6 129,7 123,3 126,4 Vacation 134,5 143,8 144,7 141,5 142,0 150,1 152,8 76,0 63,1 60,4 65,5 71,9 64,3 69,2 66,9 57,6 Economic Indicator within Six Months IDR 81,3 103,1 94,9 98,8 96,9 105,7 119,7 112,3 99,7 102,8 104,7 109,6 98,2 99,4 89,3 97,0 Avaibility of Goods & Services 107,3 114,9 116,5 125,0 118,2 132,2 145,9 127,1 109,9 115,3 121,0 118,3 106,5 109,4 109,4 106,3 Interest Rate 86,2 85,0 101,1 86,3 83,8 81,6 68,2 87,1 91,2 89,4 82,4 84,0 87,7 87,4 79,7 80,3 Current savings ,6 89,1 83,7 93,2 96,7 94,1 95,1 90,3 75,9 Savings for 6 months hence ,6 107,6 109,9 116,3 121,7 114,7 117,8 109,6 93,4 Government Economic Programme 43,2 68,0 77,6 57,8 58,2 80,5 92,7 128,7 91,9 92,7 104,0 110,7 105,4 106,1 92,6 83,5 Notes : - New questionaire was applied since October '2004' - Before Oct 2004 time frame for expectation was 6-12 months hence - All figures in index, except for category E in percentage 4

5 DKI Jakarta Table 2 Consumer Confidence By Regions (Index) Descriptions Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Consumer Confidence Index 60,8 72,3 65,7 70,9 68,6 83,4 90,6 116,2 85,7 85,8 89,4 101,6 94,7 95,7 79,1 69,2 Present Situation 46,6 58,5 50,6 53,6 49,9 54,4 57,7 87,4 62,1 65,7 66,5 79,7 71,6 70,4 54,0 45,4 Expectations 75,1 86,0 80,8 88,3 87,3 112,4 123,4 144,9 109,3 105,9 112,3 123,5 117,9 121,0 104,2 92,9 Bandung Consumer Confidence Index 57,0 64,2 77,1 73,8 79,0 96,0 104,1 106,7 90,1 79,1 96,8 103,8 106,0 106,1 86,1 90,1 Present Situation 49,9 58,1 65,6 64,8 72,6 81,3 89,1 95,1 81,7 69,3 83,4 92,4 96,2 95,8 76,1 77,9 Expectations 64,1 70,2 88,6 82,9 85,4 110,7 119,0 118,2 98,4 88,8 110,2 115,2 115,8 116,3 96,0 102,3 Semarang Consumer Confidence Index 62,7 75,6 71,8 76,7 71,6 93,6 101,2 125,8 88,3 90,1 101,5 100,1 93,0 103,2 82,7 76,4 Present Situation 49,3 59,4 59,0 64,3 62,0 75,0 80,0 104,1 72,6 72,6 84,0 81,1 79,0 82,7 72,7 64,0 Expectations 76,1 91,7 84,7 89,1 81,2 112,2 122,3 147,6 104,0 107,7 119,0 119,1 107,0 123,8 92,7 88,8 Surabaya Consumer Confidence Index 69,5 87,3 92,6 86,6 91,0 91,1 101,4 113,3 88,4 91,4 100,1 101,4 98,4 99,4 86,5 76,5 Present Situation 66,8 79,1 90,2 81,2 87,5 81,4 86,3 100,7 81,8 82,2 88,4 89,2 88,4 86,5 78,7 65,1 Expectations 72,2 95,4 95,0 91,9 94,5 100,7 116,5 125,9 95,0 100,6 111,8 113,7 108,5 112,3 94,2 87,9 Medan Consumer Confidence Index 76,4 78,1 80,3 87,3 84,0 93,7 102,1 131,7 87,8 91,8 99,5 97,5 96,9 98,6 88,6 75,2 Present Situation 64,6 66,4 71,1 81,8 67,1 73,8 79,7 115,1 80,7 77,8 86,0 87,0 83,8 83,5 75,1 65,4 Expectations 88,2 89,8 89,5 92,9 100,9 113,5 124,4 148,3 94,8 105,8 112,9 107,9 109,9 113,7 102,0 85,1 Palembang Consumer Confidence Index 68,4 88,9 85,5 91,3 92,7 97,0 109,3 121,1 81,5 85,6 92,5 109,4 102,7 101,9 91,7 70,5 Present Situation 59,6 82,0 86,1 83,6 81,2 81,1 101,9 110,5 70,3 71,3 78,7 96,5 90,4 90,0 83,5 60,0 Expectations 77,2 95,9 84,8 99,1 104,1 112,9 116,8 131,6 92,7 99,9 106,4 122,3 114,9 113,9 100,0 80,9 Banjarmasin Consumer Confidence Index 75,9 87,1 93,1 100,5 86,2 97,0 99,0 119,2 98,1 97,5 105,3 109,9 96,3 101,2 98,7 82,5 Present Situation 63,3 75,3 87,2 95,0 77,6 84,0 85,7 104,0 90,3 88,5 94,4 98,6 86,4 89,3 91,7 71,8 Expectations 88,5 98,9 99,0 106,0 94,7 110,0 112,4 134,4 105,8 106,5 116,1 121,3 106,3 113,1 105,7 93,2 BandarLampung Consumer Confidence Index 83,2 77,6 83,9 85,0 89,7 96,3 103,6 116,0 88,5 79,6 87,9 104,8 99,8 110,0 94,3 70,3 Present Situation 70,0 68,5 77,0 80,7 78,7 77,2 82,8 102,3 78,8 62,7 71,7 93,2 86,8 99,8 80,5 59,8 Expectations 96,3 86,7 90,8 89,3 100,7 115,5 124,3 129,7 98,2 96,5 104,2 116,5 112,8 120,2 108,0 80,7 Makassar Consumer Confidence Index 85,8 98,5 90,8 96,4 97,3 98,8 109,5 131,3 108,3 108,5 118,0 112,9 114,1 116,4 102,4 87,1 Present Situation 77,0 92,7 87,2 93,5 91,7 87,5 97,3 120,2 92,2 93,3 109,3 101,0 102,8 104,3 92,2 74,7 Expectations 94,7 104,3 94,3 99,3 102,8 110,0 121,7 142,5 124,5 123,7 126,7 124,8 125,3 128,5 112,7 99,5 Samarinda Consumer Confidence Index ,5 95,3 104,6 91,2 94,2 89,7 88,3 75,2 Present Situation ,3 83,2 96,2 73,3 88,7 82,3 82,7 64,8 Expectations ,7 107,3 113,0 109,0 99,7 97,0 94,0 85,5 Denpasar Consumer Confidence Index ,2 66,8 83,1 87,8 90,6 81,0 85,0 77,5 Present Situation ,7 57,7 72,8 76,0 81,3 69,0 76,8 73,5 Expectations ,7 75,8 93,3 99,5 99,8 93,0 93,2 81,5 Padang Consumer Confidence Index ,3 68,8 75,0 86,0 89,0 90,0 80,5 65,7 Present Situation ,8 61,2 62,8 69,2 72,2 72,3 66,8 51,0 Expectations ,8 76,3 87,2 102,8 105,8 107,7 94,2 80,3 Pontianak Consumer Confidence Index ,7 91,0 103,6 108,2 98,6 102,5 93,8 80,5 Present Situation ,8 80,3 93,0 92,8 93,5 90,2 87,2 76,3 Expectations ,5 101,7 114,2 123,5 103,7 114,8 100,5 84,7 Manado Consumer Confidence Index ,9 112,0 125,3 115,8 119,5 114,2 135,8 93,3 Present Situation ,8 99,5 116,8 100,7 109,8 101,8 123,0 85,0 Expectations ,0 124,5 133,7 130,8 129,2 126,5 148,7 101,5 Mataram Consumer Confidence Index ,8 85,9 87,4 89,0 99,5 94,4 97,0 78,7 Present Situation ,7 73,3 72,5 72,3 86,8 74,3 86,8 55,3 Expectations ,0 98,5 102,3 105,7 112,2 114,5 107,3 102,0 Pangkal Pinang Consumer Confidence Index ,7 105,9 98,1 94,9 84,5 74,8 Present Situation ,1 98,0 93,6 86,1 77,5 70,0 Expectations ,2 113,9 102,7 103,6 91,6 79,6 5

6 Table 3 Respondent Figures (percentage) Descriptions Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Gender Male 54,2 55,8 52,7 54,4 57,4 55,3 53,5 51,8 58,4 58,0 57,2 57,6 56,6 54,2 55,9 58,5 Female 45,8 44,2 47,3 45,6 42,6 44,7 46,5 48,2 41,6 42,0 42,8 42,4 43,4 45,8 44,1 41,5 Household Expenses Rp. 1 million - Rp. 3 million 75,4 72,3 74,7 71,0 61,6 69,4 70,7 75,4 74,7 76,3 77,0 75,8 77,4 70,9 70,6 69,3 Rp. 3 million - 5 million 19,6 22,6 19,7 21,7 31,2 22,4 21,3 18,5 18,6 17,0 16,3 17,2 16,9 20,0 21,0 20,7 Rp. 5 million and over 5,0 5,0 5,6 7,3 7,3 8,2 8,0 6,2 6,7 6,7 6,7 7,0 5,7 9,1 8,5 10,0 Ages years 59,2 57,1 57,4 59,7 54,9 62,7 63,4 62,9 59,7 60,3 62,1 61,8 62,8 62,6 59,8 59, years 36,3 39,2 38,7 36,8 41,4 33,6 33,8 34,2 36,4 36,7 33,8 35,2 34,3 34,4 37,2 37,6 Over 60 years 4,5 3,7 3,9 3,5 3,7 3,7 2,8 2,9 3,9 3,0 4,0 3,0 2,9 3,0 3,0 3,4 Educational Level High School 44,5 45,7 44,0 45,8 41,6 44,3 42,9 44,2 44,8 45,5 42,6 46,1 43,7 45,2 43,0 45,4 Diploma 13,4 16,9 16,4 14,8 17,0 15,0 16,2 16,6 15,5 16,1 16,7 15,6 16,1 15,9 15,4 14,6 University 37,4 34,8 36,1 35,3 36,9 36,2 37,1 35,3 35,5 34,5 37,0 34,9 36,3 34,9 38,4 36,1 Graduate/Post Graduate 4,8 2,7 3,5 4,0 4,5 4,6 3,8 3,9 4,2 4,0 3,7 3,5 3,9 4,1 3,2 3,9 6