TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index

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1 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 Pho: Fax:

2 About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well defined, accurate, and forward thinking is our passion. Research is the foundation for all our endeavors. TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking. Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation. In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor s Business Daily (1996 to present) the nation s fastest growing financial publication to produce their highly respected IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 2

3 Table Of Contents I. Methodology 4 5 II. Auto Demand Index 6 15 A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender/Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household ldincome III. Demand For New Autos A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA IV. Brand Preferences A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands) V. Contact Information 3 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 3

4 I. Methodology

5 Methodology TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of consumers intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of based on demand levels between February 27 and April 27. The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely? We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either very or somewhat likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles. The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over million U.S. households with drivers. Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of 9 respondents. The margin of error is +/ percentage points. The June Survey was conducted between May 31st and June 5th, 216. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 5

6 II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender and Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household Income

7 Auto Demand Index (Overall) After posting a steep 15 point decline last month, the Auto Demand Index level increased five points in June, to a score of 96. High Low to Demand Ind dex (ADI) Au Auto Demand Index (ADI) 3SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average Base = All Respondents Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 7

8 Auto Demand Index Moving Averages Base = All Respondents Despite the improvement in the Index this month, purchase intent continues to decelerate among consumers, as June s ADI is six points below its 12 month moving average of 12. Further, the Index is two points below the 3 month moving average, which has declined for the third straight month in June, to a score of SMA 6SMA 12SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average 6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average 12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average 11 Index (ADI) Auto Demand I Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 8

9 Momentum: Moving Average Convergence Divergence Momentum= Fast ta Average (6 month exponential moving average) minus Slow Average (12 month exponential moving average) Base = All Respondents In June, our momentum indicator (MACD) fell by one point to attain a reading of.8, its lowest score since January 215. This decline indicates that momentum for the Auto Demand Index will decrease significantly in the near future. Accordingly, TechnoMetrica anticipates that new vehicle sales will decline in the coming months. MACD Auto Demand Index (ADI) Auto Sales Difference bet tween 6 EMA AD DI and 12 EMA A DI Auto Sales (Millions) TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 9 Difference between 6 EMA auto sales and 12 EMA auto sales

10 By Region 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Northeast SMA = 11 Midwest 12 SMA = South West SMA = SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 1

11 By Area Type 3 SMA 15 5 Urban Suburban Base = All Respondents 12 SMA = SMA = Rural 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 11

12 By Age 3 SMA SMA = SMA = Base = All Respondents SMA = SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 12

13 By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA 15 Male Base = All Respondents 12 SMA = 18 Female SMA = Single 12 SMA = Married 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 13

14 By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA Parents SMA = Non Parents Base = All Respondents SMA = White SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? 89 Black/Hispanic 2 12 SMA = TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 14

15 By Household Income 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Under 3K 3K 5K SMA = SMA = K K SMA = K+ 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 15

16 III. Demand For New Autos A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

17 Vehicle Purchase Plans June 216 Base = All Respondents Not Likely 84% Likely 16% This month, the share of Americans who saytheyarelikelytopurchaseorleasea new vehicle within the next six months increased by one point from May, to a rate of 16%. % 2% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time Likely 3 month SMA 15% 1% 5% % Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 17

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame June 216 Base = Potential Buyers % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Average Time Frame (Months) Dec 15 4.18 Jan 16 4.16 Feb 16 4.35 Mar 16 4. Apr 16 4.15 May 16 4.21 Jun 16 4.

18 Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame June 216 Base = Potential Buyers % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Average Time Frame (Months) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Within One Month Between 2 & 3 Months Between 4 & 6 Months Not Sure 3% 12% 66% 2% 1% % Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure In June, the share of likely vehicle buyers planning to purchase or lease a new vehicle within onemonth grew for the second straight month, increasing three points from May to a rate of 12%. Morethanoneintendriverswhoarelikelyto acquire a new vehicle (12%) report that they will do so within one month, an increase of three points from May. Meanwhile, one in five likely buyers say they will make a purchase within the next 2 to 3 months, with two thirds (66%) reporting they plan to do so further out (within 4 to 6 months). Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 18

Vehicle Type Momentum June 216 Base = Potential Buyers %

14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 15% 17% 9% 1% 6% 5% 2% 3% Mid Size

19 Vehicle Type Momentum June 216 Base = Potential Buyers % Negative Change No Change Positive Change 12SMA 3SMA 21% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 15% 17% 9% 1% 6% 5% 2% 3% Mid Size Compact Minivan Full Size Pickup SmallSUVSUV Large SUV Sub Compact or Mini Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 19

20 Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA 4% Subcompact/Mini 12 SMA = 2 4% Compact Base = Potential Buyers 12 SMA = 14 3% 3% 2% 2% 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% % 1% % 4% Mid Size 12 SMA = Full Size 4% 12 SMA = 12 3% 2% 1% 26% 26% 27% 23% 23% 21% 21% 3% 2% 1% 11% 12% 11% 11% 13% 13% 12% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 2

21 Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA Minivan Pickup Base = Potential Customers 3% 12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 11 3% 2% 1% 5% 4% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 2% 1% 11% 1% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% % % 3% Small SUV 12 SMA = 15 3% Large SUV 12 SMA = 9 2% 1% 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 16% 17% 2% 1% 8% 1% 1% 1% 1% 11% 1% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 21

22 IV. Brand Preferences A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

23 Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today June 216 Base = Likely Buyers 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 12% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Toyota Ford Chevrolet Honda Nissan Dodge Jeep GMC BMW Mercedes Benz Buick *Sorted by 3SMA TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 23

24 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands) Toyota Ford Base = Likely Buyers 3% 12 SMA = 12 3% 12 SMA = 15 2% 12% 12% 11% 11% 13% 12% 14% 2% 16% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 1% 1% % % 3% Chevrolet 12 SMA = 13 3% Honda 12 SMA = 11 2% 1% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12% 2% 1% 11% 1% 12% 1% 11% 9% 9% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 24

25 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5 to 8) Nissan Dodge Base = Likely Buyers 3% 12 SMA = 4 3% 12 SMA = 4 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% Jeep 4% 4% 4% 4% % 4% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% % GMC 4% 3% 12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 4 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% % 1% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% % 3% 4% TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page

26 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9, 1, & 11) BMW Mercedes Benz Base = Likely Buyers 3% 12 SMA = 2 12 SMA = 3 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% % 1% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% % Buick 3% 12 SMA = 2 2% 1%.9% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 26

27 By Vehicle Origin June 216 Base = Likely Buyers 6% 5% 4% Likely to Purchase by Origin 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 3% 2% 44% 44% 36% 37% 1% 1% 1% % D 15 J 15 F 15 M 15 A 15 M 15 J 16 European Asian American American Asian European Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 27

28 Luxury vs. Non Luxury June 216 Base = Likely Buyers % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Brand Preference: Luxury vs. Non Luxury 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 76% 77% 4% 3% 2% 1% 14% 13% 1% 1% % Luxury Non Luxury Not Sure Luxury Non Luxury Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 28

29 Conclusions After two straight months of decline, the Auto Demand Index level grew by five points in June, registering a score of 96. However, despite this improvement in the Index, purchase intent continues to decelerate among consumers, as the ADI lingers six points below its 12 month moving average of 12. The Index is also two points behind the 3 month moving average, which has declined for the third straight month in June, to a score of 98. Furthermore, momentum for the ADI continued to weaken in June. Our momentum indicator declined dby one point tthis month, to.8, its lowest score since January 215. Thus, it appears as if auto sales may have finally reached its peak, and will continue to decline in the coming months. Regarding demographics, Americans residing in the Western region of the U.S., and respondents over the age of 65 were the sole segments that t displayed d any growth in purchase intent tin June. Western Americans posted tdan 18 point gain in the ADI, registering a score of 18, while seniors over the age of 65 recorded a growth rate of four points, attaining a reading of 71. Although every other demographic group registered declines in the ADI, the most significant drop in the Index was shown among Americans residing in the Midwest, followed by parents and those earning an income between $3K and $5K. In June, the share of consumers who indicated dthat they were likely l to purchase or lease a vehicle in the next six months increased by one percentage point from last month, to a rate of 16%. Further, the percentage of Americans planning to acquire a vehicle within one month grew by three points, to a share of 12%. In terms of Americans preferences regarding the types of vehicles they plan to purchase, mid size vehicles, chosen by 21% of respondents, remain the most desirable type. At the same time, preference for small and large SUVs is displaying accelerated growth among consumers. Toyota and Ford are the most desired brands among those intending to acquire a new vehicle, as they were both preferred by a 14% share of likely buyers. Meanwhile, Chevrolet, chosen by 12% of likely buyers, dropped down one spot to round out the top three of most desired brands. Regarding the land of origin of the brands that consumers intend to purchase, preference for Asian brands has surpassed that for American made vehicles for the first time since June 215. Nearly two in five likely buyers (39%) intend to acquire Asian autos, while 38% prefer vehicles made in America. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 29

30 Contact Information To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us. Contact: Raghavan Mayur Address: 7 Hilltop Road, Suite 1 Ramsey, NJ 7446 Phone: TECH (8324) Fax: Web: mayur@technometrica.comcom TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 Page 3

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 7 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 7 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 Pho:21 986 1288 Fax:21 986 119 www.technometrica.com About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is