TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index
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1 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 Pho: Fax:
2 About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well defined, accurate, and forward thinking is our passion. Research is the foundation for all our endeavors. TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking. Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation. In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor s Business Daily (1996 to present) the nation s fastest growing financial publication to produce their highly respected IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 2
3 Table Of Contents I. Methodology 4 5 II. Auto Demand Index 6 15 A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender/Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household ldincome III. Demand For New Autos A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA IV. Brand Preferences A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands) V. Contact Information 3 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 3
4 I. Methodology
5 Methodology TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of consumers intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 1 based on demand levels between February 27 and April 27. The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely? We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either very or somewhat likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles. The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 1 million U.S. households with drivers. Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of around 9 respondents. The margin of error is +/ 3.2 percentage points. The July Survey was conducted between June 24 th and June 29 th, 216. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 5
6 II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender and Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household Income
7 Auto Demand Index (Overall) According to the latest Auto Demand Index study, Americans intent to acquire new vehicles has weakened significantly, due to the economic uncertainties triggered by the recent Brexit vote, along with consumers concerns regarding the economy s persistently slow rate of growth. In July, the Auto Demand Index level plunged 14 points to a score of 82, its lowest reading since April 215. Aut to Demand Ind dex (ADI) Auto Demand Index (ADI) 3SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average Base = All Respondents High Low Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 7
8 Auto Demand Index Moving Averages Base = All Respondents The steep deceleration in purchase intent is even more evident when one measures the Index against its short and long term moving averages. July s ADI is 2 points below its 12 month moving average of 12, and eight points behind the 3 month moving average (9). Further, the 3 month moving average declined for the fourth straight month in July. 12 3SMA 6SMA 12SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average 6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average 12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average 11 Index (ADI) Auto Demand I Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 8
9 Momentum: Moving Average Convergence Divergence Momentum= Fast ta Average (6 month exponential moving average) minus Slow Average (12 month exponential moving average) Base = All Respondents This month, our momentum indicator (MACD) entered into negative territory for the first time since January 215, declining by a total of 2.4 points to a reading of 1.6. Thus, the Auto Demand Index will enter a period of negative momentum in the near future. Consequently, TechnoMetrica anticipates i t that t new vehicle sales, which h may have already reached peak performance, will fall precipitously in the coming months. MACD Auto Demand Index (ADI) Auto Sales Difference bet tween 6 EMA AD DI and 12 EMA A DI Auto Sales (Millions) TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 9 Difference between 6 EMA auto sales and 12 EMA auto sales
10 By Region 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Northeast SMA = 1 Midwest 12 SMA = South SMA = West SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 1
11 By Area Type 3 SMA Urban Suburban Base = All Respondents 12 SMA = SMA = Rural 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 11
12 By Age 3 SMA SMA = Base = All Respondents 12 SMA = SMA = SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 12
13 By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA Base = All Respondents 15 Male 12 SMA = 17 Female SMA = Single 12 SMA = Married 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 13
14 By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Parents 2 12 SMA = 132 Non Parents SMA = White SMA = 96 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? 89 8 Black/Hispanic 2 12 SMA = TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 14
15 By Household Income 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Under 3K 3K 5K SMA = SMA = K 1K SMA = K+ 12 SMA = Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 15
16 III. Demand For New Autos A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA
17 Vehicle Purchase Plans July 216 Base = All Respondents Not Likely 86% Likely 14% This month, the share of Americans who say they are likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next six months decreased by two points from June, to a rate of 14%. This represents the lowest percentage of Americans planning to acquire a new vehicle since July of last year. % 2% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time Likely 3 month SMA 15% 5% % Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 17
18 Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame July 216 Base = Potential Buyers 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Average Time Frame (Months) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Within One Month Between 2 & 3 Months Between 4 & 6 Months Not Sure 4% 12% 17% 67% % Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure In July, the share of likely vehicle buyers planning to purchase or lease a new vehiclewithinonemonth i h remained unchanged from the previous month, at 12%. Morethanoneintendriverswhoarelikelyto acquire a new vehicle (12%) report that they will do so within one month, a rate unchanged from June. Meanwhile, 17% of likely buyers say they will make a purchase within the next 2 to 3 months, with more than two thirds (67%) reporting that they plan to do so further out (within 4 to 6 months). Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 18
19 Vehicle Type Momentum July 216 Base = Potential Buyers Negative Change No Change Positive Change 24% 12SMA 3SMA 2% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 13% 13% 14% 12% 15% 17% Mid Size Compact Large SUV Minivan Sub Compact Full size Pickup SmallSUVSUV or Mini Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 19
20 Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA 4% Subcompact/Mini 12 SMA = 3 4% Compact Base = Potential Buyers 12 SMA = 13 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% % 2% 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% % 4% Mid Size 12 SMA = 24 Full Size 4% 12 SMA = 13 3% 2% 26% 27% 23% 23% 21% 21% 2% 3% 2% 12% 11% 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 2
21 Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA Minivan Pickup Base = Potential Customers 3% 12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 12 3% 2% 4% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 2% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 14% % % 3% Small SUV 12 SMA = 15 3% Large SUV 12 SMA = 9 2% 15% 14% 17% 16% 16% 17% 17% 2% 11% 8% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 21
22 IV. Brand Preferences A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
23 Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today July 216 Base = Likely Buyers 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 13% 15% 15% 12% 15% 12% 8% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% Chevrolet Toyota Ford Honda BMW Dodge Nissan Jeep GMC Buick TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 23 *Sorted by 3SMA
24 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands) 3% Chevrolet 12 SMA = 13 3% Toyota Base = Likely Buyers 12 SMA = 12 2% 12% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12% 15% 2% 12% 11% 11% 13% 12% 14% 15% % % 3% Ford 12 SMA = 15 3% Honda 12 SMA = 1 2% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 12% 2% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 24
25 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5 to 8) 3% BMW 12 SMA = 3 3% Dodge Base = Likely Buyers 12 SMA = 3 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% % Nissan 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% % Jeep 3% 12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 3 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% % 4% 2% 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% 3% % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page
26 Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9 & 1) Buick GMC Base = Likely Buyers 3% 12 SMA = 2 12 SMA = 4 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 26
27 By Vehicle Origin July 216 Base = Likely Buyers 6% 5% 4% Likely to Purchase by Origin 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 3% 2% 44% 43% 36% 36% % J 15 F 15 M 15 A 15 M 15 J 16 J 16 European Asian American American Asian European Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 27
28 Luxury vs. Non Luxury July 216 Base = Likely Buyers 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Brand Preference: Luxury vs. Non Luxury 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 76% % 4% 3% 2% 14% 14% 11% % Luxury Non Luxury Not Sure Luxury Non Luxury Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 28
29 Conclusions Dueto Americans concerns regardingthe possible ramifications of the Brexitdecision for the U.S. economy, and uncertainty over the future state of economic conditions in the country, vehicle purchase intent declined precipitously this month. In July, the Auto Demand Index level dropped 14 points to a score of 82, its lowest reading since April 215. Measuring the Index reading against its short and long term moving averages reveals that the ADI will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. July s ADI is 2 points bl below its 12 month moving average of 12, and eight ihtpoints behind bhidthe 3 month moving average (9), while trailing the 6 month moving average by 17 points. Further, the 3 month moving average declined for the fourth straight month in July. Momentum for the Index weakened considerably in July, and has entered negative territory. Our momentum indicator declined by 2.4 points to 1.6, 16 its lowest score since January 215. Thus, we anticipate i t that t new vehicle sales, which h may have already reached an exhaustion phase, will fall significantly in the coming months. In terms of demographics, the steepest declines in purchase intent this month were displayed among Americans residing in the Midwest region of the U.S., and those living in rural areas, as the segments ADI scores fell 22 points and 2 points, respectively. In addition, i Millennialsaged i l 18 to 24, as well as African Americans and Hispanics i both exhibited a 14 point drop in purchase intent. Meanwhile, drivers residing in urban areas and respondents aged 65 and over, represented the only groups to display a growth in purchase intent this month. In July, the share of consumers who indicated that they were likely to acquire a new vehicle in the next six months decreased by two points from June, to a rate of 14%. This represents the lowest percentage of Americans planning to purchase a new vehicle since last July. Regarding vehicle preference, mid size vehicles and small SUVs were the most desirable vehicle types among likely buyers. Preference for pickup trucks is also displaying accelerated growth among consumers. This month, Chevrolet and Toyota were the most popular brands among Americans intending to acquire a new vehicle, with each garnering a 15% share of likely buyers. Meanwhile, preference for Ford vehicles declined by two points this month to 12%, as the brand seized third place. Regarding the land of origin of the vehicles that consumers intend to purchase, American made vehicles regained the top spot in consumer preference, gaining two points to a share of 4%. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 29
30 Contact Information To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us. Contact: Raghavan Mayur Address: 7 Hilltop Road, Suite 11 Ramsey, NJ 7446 Phone: TECH (8324) Fax: Web: mayur@technometrica.comcom TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index July 216 Page 3
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index June 216 7 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 7 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 Pho:21 986 1288 Fax:21 986 119 www.technometrica.com About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is
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