HOME Survey. Housing Opportunities and Market Experience. September National Association of REALTORS Research Group

Transcription

1 HOME Survey Housing Opportunities and Market Experience September National Association of REALTORS Research Group

2 Introduction The Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report was created to monitor consumer sentiment about the housing market. This report covers core topics that will be tracked on a monthly basis such as views on if now is a good time to buy or sell a home, the perception of home price changes, perceived ability to qualify for a mortgage, and the outlook on the U.S. economy. Additionally, current topical trends are covered in the HOME survey. In, respondents were asked about neighborhood considerations when purchasing a home, importance of having good schools, and the number of homes available for sale in their community. On a monthly basis renters and homeowners are asked about their personal financial outlook which is indexed on a scale of 0 to 100. Data will be reported not only on ownership status, but by age, income, and type of geographic location. Additional topics are examined in depth on including whether housing as a good financial investment, whether homeownership is part of the American Dream, and if renters want to become homeowners. This HOME survey is released on a quarterly basis.

3 Good Time to Buy a Home In the third quarter of, 63 percent of people believe that now is a good time to buy a home, which is the lowest percent recorded, since the collection started in Thirty-nine percent believe that strongly and 24 percent believe that moderately. Only 37 percent of people believe that now is not a good time to buy a home. Across all groups surveyed, the majority feel that now is a good time to buy a home. Not surprisingly with rapid home price acceleration, those who are currently renting or living with someone else, those who are under 34 years of age, and those who live in urban areas are less confident that now is a good time to buy. Good Time to Buy a Home, Strongly or Moderately 80% 60% 75% 74% 71% 70% 70% 71% 72% 72% 31% 32% 28% 25% 23% 28% 31% 29% 68% 68% 30% 29% 63% 24% 40% 20% 44% 42% 43% 45% 47% 43% 41% 43% 38% 39% 39% % Q4 Q4 Strongly Moderately

4 Good Time to Buy a Home Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over A Good 52% 58% 65% 73% 70% Time Not a Good Time 48% 43% 35% 27% 30% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 A Good Time 59% 64% 68% Not a Good Time 41% 36% 32% Region: Northeast Midwest South West A Good Time 64% 67% 66% 55% Not a Good Time 36% 33% 34% 45% Location: Rural Suburban Urban A Good Time 71% 63% 57% Not a Good Time 29% 38% 43% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone A Good Time 73% 45% 49% Not a Good Time 27% 55% 51%

5 Good Time to Sell a Home Seventy-seven percent of people believe that now is a good time to sell a home, which is the highest percent recorded, since the collection started in This is over a 10 percentage point increase from 63 percent in. Twenty-two percent believe that now is not a good time to sell a home. Those who are in the West (85 percent) are most likely to think that now is a good time to sell a home, which is also the least likely region to think that now is a good time to buy a home. 100% Now is Good Time To Sell, Strongly or Moderately 80% 60% 56% 61% 63% 62% 26% 27% 69% 71% 30% 29% 75% 71% 74% 30% 28% 32% 75% 29% 77% 27% 40% 28% 29% 20% 28% 32% 37% 35% 39% 42% 45% 43% 42% 46% 50% % Q4 Q4 Strongly Moderately

6 Good Time to Sell a Home Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over A Good 71% 83% 73% 83% 78% Time Not a Good Time 29% 17% 27% 17% 22% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 A Good Time 65% 81% 86% Not a Good Time 35% 19% 14% Region: Northeast Midwest South West A Good Time 72% 78% 76% 85% Not a Good Time 28% 22% 24% 15% Location: Rural Suburban Urban A Good Time 79% 79% 74% Not a Good Time 21% 21% 26% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone A Good Time 82% 70% 69% Not a Good Time 18% 30% 31%

7 Home Prices in the Past 12 Months Seventy percent of people believe that prices have gone up within their communities in the last 12 months, which is an increase from at 68 percent. Twenty-five percent believe prices have stayed the same and five percent believe prices have gone down. Those who are in the West, those with incomes over $100,000, and those 55 to 64 years in age are most likely to report that prices have increased in their communities. 100% Home Prices in the Last 12 Months In Local Community 11% 11% 9% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 80% 39% 36% 34% 35% 33% 33% 30% 30% 31% 28% 25% 60% 40% 20% 50% 53% 56% 55% 60% 60% 63% 64% 63% 68% 70% 0% Q4 Q4 Gone Up Stayed the Same Gone Down

8 Home Prices in the Past 12 Months Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over Gone Up 69% 73% 67% 75% 69% Gone Down Stayed the Same 10% 3% 6% 3% 4% 21% 23% 29% 23% 26% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Gone Up 64% 71% 78% Gone Down 5% 5% 4% Stayed the Same 30% 23% 18% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Gone Up 68% 66% 67% 80% Gone Down 6% 5% 7% 4% Stayed the Same 27% 29% 27% 16% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Gone Up 65% 73% 70% Gone Down 4% 6% 6% Stayed the Same 31% 22% 24% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Gone Up 71% 68% 66% Gone Down 4% 9% 9% Stayed the Same 25% 23% 25%

9 Home Prices in the Next Six Months Forty-one percent of respondents believe that prices will stay the same in their communities in the next six months, which is a slight increase from the previous quarter. Fifty-three percent believe prices will increase in the next six months and six percent believe prices will go down in the next six months. Those who live in the West, earn $100,000 or more, and rent are most likely to believe prices will go up in their communities. 100% Home Prices in the Next 6 Months In Local Community 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 80% 60% 47% 48% 47% 47% 42% 41% 41% 43% 42% 40% 41% 40% 20% 44% 45% 44% 44% 51% 52% 53% 51% 53% 55% 53% 0% Q4 Q4 Will Go Up Stay the Same Will Go Down

10 Home Prices in the Next Six Months Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over Will Go Up 52% 55% 52% 52% 54% Will Go Down Stay the Same 7% 5% 7% 5% 6% 41% 40% 41% 42% 41% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Will Go Up 52% 54% 58% Will Go Down 7% 5% 7% Stay the Same 42% 42% 36% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Will Go Up 49% 49% 52% 59% Will Go Down 5% 5% 7% 5% Stay the Same 45% 45% 41% 36% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Will Go Up 51% 54% 54% Will Go Down 5% 6% 7% Stay the Same 44% 40% 39% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Will Go Up 52% 56% 49% Will Go Down 6% 7% 5% Stay the Same 42% 37% 46%

11 Qualify for a Mortgage Among those who currently do not own a home, 28 percent believe it would be very difficult (up from 26 percent last quarter) and 31 percent believe it would be somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage given their current financial situation. Seventy-four percent of those who earn under $50,000 believe it would be at least somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage compared to 29 percent of those earning over $100,000. With Household s Current Financial Situation, Non- Owners Perceived Difficulty Qualifying for a Mortgage 100% 14% 16% 15% 16% 21% 17% 20% 20% 19% 21% 20% 80% 60% 23% 25% 20% 23% 23% 23% 19% 21% 17% 25% 22% 40% 33% 30% 36% 31% 29% 30% 31% 28% 30% 28% 31% 20% 30% 30% 29% 30% 27% 31% 31% 32% 34% 26% 28% 0% Q4 Q4 Very Difficult Somewhat Difficult Not Very Difficult Not At All Difficult

12 Qualify for a Mortgage Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over Very Difficult 20% 29% 32% 26% 49% Somewhat Difficult 33% 34% 30% 30% 15% Not Very Difficult 32% 15% 12% 15% 12% Not At All Difficult 15% 22% 27% 29% 24% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Very Difficult 38% 17% 10% Somewhat Difficult 36% 31% 19% Not Very Difficult 18% 30% 23% Not At All Difficult 8% 22% 48% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Very Difficult 25% 27% 27% 32% Somewhat Difficult 35% 27% 29% 32% Not Very Difficult 15% 29% 26% 15% Not At All Difficult 25% 18% 19% 22% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Very Difficult 28% 27% 29% Somewhat Difficult 28% 31% 32% Not Very Difficult 17% 24% 20% Not At All Difficult 28% 18% 19% Tenure: Rent Live with someone Very Difficult 27% 30% Somewhat Difficult 31% 28% Not Very Difficult 22% 21% Not At All Difficult 20% 21%

13 Outlook on U.S. Economy Sixty percent of people believe the U.S. economy is improving, an increase from 58 percent in. Optimism is highest in the West, among those who live with someone, and those who earn $100,000 or more. Fifty-seven percent of those 34 years of age or younger believe the economy is improving, the lowest of all age groups. Fifty-two percent of those in urban areas believe the economy is improving compared to 67 percent in rural areas. 100% Outlook on the U.S. Economy 80% 52% 51% 52% 46% 38% 46% 47% 48% 40% 42% 40% 60% 40% 20% 48% 49% 48% 54% 62% 54% 53% 52% 60% 58% 60% 0% Q4 Q4 Improving Not Improving

14 Outlook on U.S. Economy Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over Improving 57% 62% 62% 58% 58% Not Improving 43% 38% 39% 42% 42% Household Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000 Improving 49% 64% 67% Not Improving 51% 36% 33% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Improving 57% 60% 60% 62% Not Improving 43% 40% 41% 39% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Improving 67% 60% 52% Not Improving 33% 40% 46% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Improving 64% 47% 65% Not Improving 36% 53% 35%

15 Considerations When Choosing A Neighborhood In, respondents were asked about considerations when choosing a new neighborhood, the importance of highly ranked schools, and the number of homes available for sale in their neighborhood. Proximity to friends and family (25 percent), jobs (24 percent) and schools of choice (20 percent) were considered the most important when choosing a new neighborhood. Considerations When Choosing A Neighborhood Proximity to friends and family Proximity to job and short commute 25% 24% Proximity to schools of choice 20% Close to parks, trails, and dog parks Close to entertainment, activities, restaurant and shopping 6% 6% Walkability 3% Access to public transportation 3% None/Other 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

16 Considerations When Choosing Household Income: A Neighborhood Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000 Proximity to friends and family 30% 24% 21% Proximity to job and short commute 23% 27% 22% Proximity to schools of choice 14% 21% 27% Close to parks, trails and dog parks 6% 6% 6% Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping 7% 6% 7% Walkability 3% 2% 3% Access to public transportation 4% 1% 3% None/Other 13% 14% 12% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Proximity to friends and family 31% 25% 21% Proximity to job and short commute 20% 25% 25% Proximity to schools of choice 15% 25% 15% Close to parks, trails and dog parks 8% 5% 5% Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping 3% 5% 12% Walkability 2% 3% 4% Access to public transportation 2% 2% 5% None/Other 21% 10% 14% Tenure: Live with Own Rent Someone Proximity to friends and family 26% 22% 32% Proximity to job and short commute 21% 29% 29% Proximity to schools of choice 23% 14% 16% Close to parks, trails and dog parks 5% 8% 4% Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping 6% 8% 5% Walkability 2% 4% 3% Access to public transportation 2% 5% 2% None/Other 15% 12% 9%

17 Importance of Highly Rated Schools Over two-thirds of respondents reported that highly rated schools are important. Over three-quarters of those who are 34 or under and those between expressed importance of having highly rated schools. Fifty-eight percent of those who earn $100,000 or more find it very important to have high rated schools. Importance of Highly Rated Schools Not at all important 19% Not very important 11% Very important 47% Somewhat important 23%

18 Importance of Highly Rated Schools Age: 34 or under 35 to to to or over Very important 43% 56% 49% 45% 46% Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important 33% 22% 20% 21% 16% 13% 10% 7% 11% 11% 11% 13% 23% 23% 25% Not sure 1% * 36% 39% 33% $50,000 to Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000 Very important 41% 46% 58% Somewhat important 25% 24% 19% Not very important 12% 11% 8% Not at all important 21% 20% 15% Not sure 1% * * Tenure: Rural Suburban Urban Very important 48% 35% 44% Somewhat important 23% 25% 26% Not very important 8% 15% 10% Not at all important 20% 25% 33% Not sure * 1% 43%

19 Home Available for Sale Over the Past Six Months Fifty-six percent of respondents observed that the number of homes available for sale in their neighborhood has remained the same over the past six months. Twenty-three percent reported more than usual number of homes on the market and 15 percent reported a less than usual number of homes on the market. Close to a quarter (24 percent) of those who live in a suburban communities observed more homes available and 14 percent observed a decrease in availability. Homes Available for Sale Over the Past Six Months Not sure 6% More than usual 23% About the same amount 56% Less than usual 15%

20 Homes Available in the Past Six Months Region: Northeast Midwest South West More than usual 22% 23% 22% 24% Less than usual 12% 16% 14% 17% About the same 59% 55% 58% 55% Not sure 7% 6% 6% 4% $50,000 to Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000 More than usual 23% 23% 22% Less than usual 14% 15% 15% About the same 56% 57% 60% Not sure 7% 5% 4% Location: Rural Suburban Urban More than usual 21% 24% 23% Less than usual 16% 14% 16% About the same 57% 56% 57% Not sure 7% 5% 5%

21 Personal Financial Outlook Index Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months. 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Tenure All U.S. Households Own Rent Personal Financial Outlook by Age of Household Head All U.S. Households

22 Personal Financial Outlook Index Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months. 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Income All U.S. Households Under 30K 30K-50K 50-75K 75K+ 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Area All U.S. Households Urban Suburban Rural

23 Methodology The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Each month, July through September, a sample of U.S. households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including cell phones and land lines. Using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system, TechnoMetrica conducts interviews from their call center in Ramsey, NJ. Regional quotas are used, based on four census regions and nine census divisions. Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey. The data compiled for this report and is based on 2,731 completed telephone interviews. For monthly results, the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. National Association of REALTORS All Rights Reserved. May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS. For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

24 The National Association of REALTORS, is America s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members, including NAR s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS RESEARCH GROUP The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS Research Group is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policymakers and the media in a professional and accessible manner. To find out about other products from NAR s Research Group, visit NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Research Group 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC data@realtors.org