The margin of error for 807 interviews is ± 3.5%

Transcription

1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page Connecticut Avenue, NW Interviews: 807 adults, including Washington, DC who only have a cell phone (202) Dates: December 2-4, 2013 FINAL Study #10863d 47 Male 53 Female [109] Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 807 interviews is ± 3.5% 1a. For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "REFUSED," ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? [ ] and over... 6 Refused b. And to ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Yes, Hispanic [152] No, not Hispanic Not sure/refused c. And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race white, black or African American, Asian, or something else? White [153] Black or African American Asian... 2 Other... 5 Hispanic (VOL)... 7 Not sure/refused... 1

2 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 2 2a. How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 Excellent [154] Good Only fair Poor Not sure /11 3/11 12/10 10/10 12/09 12/08 9/18, 20-21/ /10-12/08 6/08 2/08 12/07 10/05 1 3/05 1 8/04 1 3/04 1 1/03 1 1/ Comparative data prior to 12/07 comes from surveys among registered likely voters conducted by The Tarrance Group and/or Lake, Snell, Perry, Mermin Associates. + Results for 9/18,20-21/08 among likely voters. 2b. And over the course of the next year, do you think the state of the economy will get better, stay about the same, or get worse? 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 6/11 Will get better [155] Will stay about the same Will get worse Not sure /11 12/10 10/10 12/09 12/08 9/18, 20-21/08+ 9/10-12/08 6/08 2/ Results for 9/18,20-21/08 among likely voters. Q.2a and Q.2b COMBINED: CURRENT AND FUTURE VIEW OF THE ECONOMY 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 6/11 Optimistic now/optimistic for the future Optimistic now/pessimistic for the future Pessimistic now/optimistic for the future Pessimistic now/pessimistic for the future Not sure for now or the future /11 12/10 10/10 12/09 12/08 9/18, 20-21/08* 9/10-12/08 6/08 2/ * Results for 9/18,20-21/08 among likely voters.

3 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 3 3. Thinking about the holidays this year, approximately how much are you planning to spend on holiday shopping this year? (IF "NOT SURE," PROBE:) Well, if you had to give me your best guess, about how much do you think you will spend? 12/13 11/12 11/11 12/10 12/09 12/08 12/07 12/06 Less than $ [ ] $200-$ $500-$ $1,000 or more Not sure Mean... $681 $742 $751 $615 $778 $704 $738 $688 Mean (Among those who are spending at least something)... $754 $829 $855 $687 $873 $784 $782 $735 (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO ARE SPENDING SOMETHING IN Q.3. n=730) 4. Is that more than, about the same as, or less than you were expecting to spend as of a month ago? More than expected a month ago [162] About the same as expected a month ago Less than expected a month ago Not sure... 3 (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO ARE SPENDING SOMETHING IN Q.3. n=730) 5a. And is that more than you spent on holiday shopping last year, about the same amount as you spent last year, or less than you spent last year? 12/13 12/10 12/09 12/08 More than spent last year CONTINUE [163] About the same amount as spent last year Skip to Q Less than spent last year Skip to Q.5c Not sure... 1 Skip to Q (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "MORE THAN SPENT LAST YEAR" IN Q.5a.) 5b. What would you say are the main reasons that you are spending more on holiday shopping this year than you did last year? (OPEN-ENDED RESPONSES) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Respondents Spending More This Year (n=104) All Respondents Spending On This Holiday (n=730) Being paid more/income is higher [ ] The economy is in better shape > Family has grown/i have more friends or family to buy for There are more good deals/better prices in stores Inflation, prices have gone up, things cost more Stock market is strong/investments are worth more The cost of gas is lower Home is worth more The cost of necessities is lower, food/rent/clothing cost less Other Not sure Spent about the same or less than last year (Q.5a)... NA 85

4 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 4 (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "LESS THAN SPENT LAST YEAR" IN Q.5a.) 5c. What would you say are the main reasons that you are spending less on holiday shopping this year than you did last year? (OPEN-ENDED RESPONSES) THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Respondents Spending Less This Year (n=297) All Respondents Spending On This Holiday (n=730) Being paid less/income is lower [ ] The economy is not in good shape > Want to save money Lack of money/have trouble paying your regular bills Concern about problems in Washington, D.C./debt ceiling/government shutdown Respondent or family member expects to have a lower income soon/job insecurity Don't want to increase credit card debt Home is worth less Unemployed, lost my job Fewer people to buy for, friends/family members, have died/moved away Obamacare, uncertainity of health care costs Other Not sure Spent about the same or more than last year (Q.5a)... NA In which one or two of the following ways have you already done or plan to do most of your holiday shopping? (IF MORE THAN TWO, ASK:) Well, if you had to pick just one or two, which would you pick? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 12/13 11/12 11/11 12/10 12/09 12/08 12/07 11/06 At big box stores, such as Wal-Mart or Best Buy [ ] Online, not in stores > At department stores, such as Macy's or Sears At locally-owned, non-chain stores At chain stores, such as J. Crew or Barnes & Noble Through mail-order catalogues At luxury stores, such as Tiffany or Neiman Marcus Other (VOL) Not sure When it comes to buying holiday gifts, do you expect to use credit cards or other types of debt that you will not immediately pay off in full and for which you will carry a balance for some amount of time? 12/13 11/12 11/11 Yes [216] No Depends (VOL) Not sure

5 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 5 8. Did you do any holiday shopping over the past few days? (IF YES, ASK:) On which of the following days did you do holiday shopping? 12/13 11/12 Yes Thanksgiving Day [217] The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday > The Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving The Monday after Thanksgiving NA None of these Not sure No Not sure (ASK OF ONE HALF THE RESPONDENTS WHO ARE SPENDING SOMETHING IN Q.3. n=369) 9. In order to help pay for holiday gifts this year, do you expect to spend LESS in any of the following areas? * THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Restaurants [219] Entertainment > Travel Food at home Home renovation Debt payments, such as credit cards or home mortgage... 7 None of these Not sure... 7 * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). (ASK OF ONE HALF THE RESPONDENTS WHO ARE SPENDING SOMETHING IN Q.3. n=367) 10. Which ONE of the following people will you spend the most on for holiday gifts this year? ** THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Your children [220] Your spouse or significant other Extended family members, like aunts, uncles, cousins, nieces, or nephews... 8 Your parents... 6 Yourself... 3 Your brothers and sisters... 2 Friends... 1 Boss or coworkers... - Not sure... 2 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).

6 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 6 Changing subjects... 11ab. Are you currently employed? (IF "NO," ASK:) Are you a student, a homemaker, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "YES, CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? Currently Employed Professional/manager [ ] White-collar worker CONTINUE Blue-collar worker Farmer/rancher... 1 Not Currently Employed Student... 4 Homemaker... 6 Retired Unemployed, looking for work... 9 Skip to Q.13a Volunteer (VOL)... - Disabled (VOL)... 4 Other... - Not sure/refused... - (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "YES, EMPLOYED" IN Q.11a) 12a. Over the next twelve months, do you expect that your wages will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? [229] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.12a) 12b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect your wages to increase over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.12a) 12c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect your wages to decrease over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] EMPLOYED ADULTS 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 6/11 3/11 12/10 Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 3% Increase 4% to 10% Increase 11% or more Increase not sure how much Mean Median /10 8/ /09 12/08 9/08 6/08 2/08 12/07 10/07 6/07 3/07 Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 3%... 7 NA Increase 4% to 10% NA Increase 11% or more... 5 NA Increase not sure how much... 1 NA Mean NA Median NA Comparative data for August 2010 comes from a survey conducted by Hart/McInturff for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.

7 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 7 13a. Over the next twelve months, do you expect that the cost of living--that is, what you pay for everyday goods and services--will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? [236] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.13a.) 13b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you think the price of everyday goods and services will increase in the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.13a.) 13c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you think the price of everyday goods and services will decrease in the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 6/11 Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 3% Increase 4% to 5% Increase 6% to 10% Increase 11% or more Increase not sure how much Mean Median /11 10/10 12/09 12/08 9/08 6/08 2/08 12/07 10/07 6/07 Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 3% Increase 4% to 5% Increase 6% to 10% Increase 11% or more Increase not sure how much Mean Median

8 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 8 14a. Do you expect the value of your home to increase, decrease, or stay about the same over the next twelve months? If you do not own your home, please just say so. [243] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.14a) 14b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect the value of your home to increase over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.14a) 14c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect the value of your home to decrease over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [ ] 12/13 1 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 11/11 6/11 Respondents Who Own Their Home Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 4% Increase 5% to 9% Increase 10% or more Increase not sure how much Mean Median /11 10/10 12/09 12/08 9/08 6/08 2/08 12/07 10/07 3/07 Respondents Who Own Their Home Decrease Stay the same Total increase Increase 1% to 4% Increase 5% to 9% Increase 10% or more Increase not sure how much Mean Median Results shown among respondents who own their home, consisting of 76% in 12/13,78% in 9/13, 77% in 6/13, 74% in 3/13, 74% in 11/12, 77% in 9/12, 76% in 5/12, 77% in 3/12, 77% in 11/11, 75% in 6/11, 78% in 3/11, 80% in 12/10, 83% in 10/10, 84% in 12/09, 77% in 12/08, 85% in 9/08, 86% in 6/08, 81% in 2/08, 82% in 12/07, 82% in 10/07, and 84% in 3/07

9 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 9 15ab. Do you have money invested in the stock market and mutual funds, including IRAs and 401(K)s? (IF YES, ASK:) And is the value of these investments above or below fifty thousand dollars? 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 Yes, Have Money invested Above $50, [ ] Below $50, Not sure No, no money invested Not sure/refused /12 3/12 11/11 6/11 3/11 12/ NA NA /10 12/09 12/08 Less than $10, At least $10,000 but less than $50, At least $50,000 but less than $100, At least $100,000 but less than $200, At least $200,000 but less than $300, At least $300,000 but less than $500, At least $500,000 but less than $1,000, $1,000,000 or more No, no money invested in the stock market Not sure/refused ab. In your opinion, would you say this is a good time or a bad time to be investing in the stock market? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "GOOD TIME OR BAD TIME," ASK:) Would you say it is a very (good time/bad time) or just a somewhat (good time/bad time)? 12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12 Very good time [ ] Just a somewhat good time Just a somewhat bad time Very bad time Not sure /11 6/11 3/11 12/10 10/10 12/09 12/08 10/

10 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 10 Now I have a few questions for you about shopping in general, not just holiday shopping. 17a. How much shopping do you do online a lot, a fair amount, just some, very little, or none at all? 12/13* 11/12 11/11 12/10 A lot of shopping [254] A fair amount of shopping Just some shopping Very little shopping No shopping at all Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). 17b. When shopping in a store, have you ever used your cell phone or other mobile device to see if you can get a lower price for an item at another store or on the Internet? 12/13* 11/12 11/11 Yes, have done this CONTINUE [255] No, have not done this Do not have a cell phone/mobile device (VOL)... 3 Skip to Q Not sure... - CONTINUE - - * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY YES, NO, OR NOT SURE IN Q.17b.) 17c. Other than music, mobile apps, and e-books, have you ever purchased goods or services on the Internet using your smartphone or other mobile device? 12/13* 11/12 11/11 Yes, have done this [256] No, have not done this Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). 18. In the next twelve months do you plan on buying a new videogame console, meaning a device that you hook up to your television and play videogames on? (IF YES, ASK:) Do you plan to buy an X-box, Playstation, Nintendo Wii, or some other console system? ** Yes, Planning To Buy 13 X-box... 6 [257] Playstation... 4 > Nintendo Wii... 1 Other... 1 Not sure... 1 No Not sure... 1 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).

11 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 11 Q.19 THROUGH Q.23 SAVED FOR FUTURE RELEASE. Changing topics again When it comes to the amount of personal debt that you have--such as credit cards, car loans, student loans, doctors and hospital bills, and home mortgages -would you say that you have a lot of debt, some debt, not much debt, or no debt at all? 12/13 11/12 6/08 2/08 A lot of debt [267] Some debt Not much debt No debt at all Not sure FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. F1a. Are you currently registered to vote? Yes, registered CONTINUE [268] No, not registered... 9 Skip to Q.F2 Not sure... 2 (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "REGISTERED" IN Q.F1a) F1b/c. A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the election for president earlier this month? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? Yes, Voted 89 Voted for Barack Obama [ ] Voted for Mitt Romney Voted for someone else... 6 Not sure... 7 No, did not vote Not sure... - F2. What is the last grade that you completed in school? Grade school... 1 [ ] Some high school... 5 High school graduate Some college, no degree Vocational training/2-year college year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree years postgraduate work/master's degree Doctoral/law degree... 2 Not sure/refused... 2

12 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 12 F3. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? Strong Democrat [ ] Not very strong Democrat Independent/closer to Democratic Party... 4 Strictly independent Independent/closer to Republican Party... 8 Not very strong Republican... 9 Strong Republican Something else Not sure... 9 F4. Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? Yes, supporter of Tea Party [276] No, not supporter of Tea Party Depends (VOL)... 4 Not sure F5. Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? Very liberal... 7 [ ] Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 9 F6. Do you have a health plan, that is, are you covered by a private health insurance plan or by a government program such as Medicare, Medicaid, or Tricare? (IF RESPONDENT OFFERS MORE THAN ONE, ASK:) Well, what kind of plan would you say your primary plan is? YES, private health insurance [279] YES, MediCARE YES, MediCAID... 4 YES, Tricare... 3 NO, do not have a health plan Other (VOL)... 4 Not sure/refused... 4

13 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #10863d--page 13 F7. If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, what would the total be? I'm going to read some income ranges, please stop me when I reach the range for your family--less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, between one hundred thousand dollars and two hundred thousand dollars, or more than two hundred thousand dollars? Less than $10, [ ] Between $10,000 and $20, Between $20,000 and $30, Between $30,000 and $40, Between $40,000 and $50, Between $50,000 and $75, Between $75,000 and $100, Between $100,000 and $200, More than $200, Not sure/refused... 17