PRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA

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1 PRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA 1

2 Preliminary Impacts Up to January 2009, some economic indicators still showed strong results while others started to reflect impact at early stage GDP growth in third quarter of 2008 => 6.1% (y-o-y) Consumption (private and government) accounts for almost 65% of GDP 2

3 Preliminary Impact on Growth Table 1. Indonesia: GDP by Expenditures, up to Sept 2008 Percentage of GDP (%) Description Q Q Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2000p GDP: 2000p: Consumption Expenditures (CE) Private Consumption Expenditures Government GDP: 2000p: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (incl. change in stocks) GDP: 2000p: Net Export of Goods and Services GDP: 2000p: Statistic Discrepancy Source: CBS 3

4 Preliminary Impact on Growth Table 2. Indonesia: Growth of GDP by Expenditures, 2008 GDP Growth by Exp. (%) Description Q Q Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2000p GDP: 2000p: Consumption Expenditures (CE) GDP: 2000p: CE: Private Consumption Expenditures GDP: 2000p: CE: Government GDP: 2000p: Gross Fixed Capital Formation GDP: 2000p: Change in Stocks (35.0) GDP: 2000p: Statistic Discrepancy (40.6) (91.0) (57.5) GDP: 2000p: Export of Goods and Services GDP: 2000p: Import of Goods and Services Source: CBS 4

5 Preliminary Impacts on Growth Government Expenditures was higher due to budgetary process in that large disbursements usually take place towards the end of the year Private Expenditures still grew in 3 rd quarter 2008 (5.3%) due to fasting month (September) and Iedul Fitri celebration (October) There were early signs that private (household and private sector) consumption started to feel the pinch of global crisis => see imports 5

6 Preliminary Impacts on Growth Table Indonesia: Sectoral Growth, 2008 Sectors Q Q Q Q4*2008 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industries (Mfg) Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel & Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership and Business Services GDP Source: Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia 6

7 Preliminary Impacts on Growth Almost all sectors grew slower in third quarter of 2008, compared to previous quarters Outlook for last quarter of 2008 showed manufacturing industry which had the biggest portion of GDP by sectors would grow by 3.6% while transportation and communication will continue to have high growth rate due to strong increase in cellular phone industry 7

8 Preliminary Impacts on Trade Indonesia: Export Perfomance, 2008 Export Value (in US$ thousands), in 000 US$ Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Source: Bank Indonesia 8

9 Preliminary Impacts on Trade Export has been hard-hit since November 2008 Import started to decline towards the end of the year. In particular, imports of consumption goods and raw material/auxilliary goods. Import of capital goods was still on the rise 9

10 Preliminary Impacts on Trade 10

11 Preliminary Impacts on Trade Trade Balance: up to end of 2008, still recorded surplus due to improvements in oil and gas trade balance (less import value of oil), though non oil and gas trade balance worsened due to larger export decline compared to falling import 11

12 Preliminary Impacts on Workers Remittance Services Balance: relatively unchanged from previous quarters slight improvement from travel inflows See Table Workers remittances (net) 12

13 Preliminary Impacts on Workers Remittance Indonesia: Transfer Balance Items * 2008** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Current Transfer (net) 4,793 4,863 1,210 1,153 1,218 1,387 1,358 1,343 1,385 Government (net) Other sectors (net) 4,749 4,841 1,196 1,145 1,210 1,373 1,356 1,342 1,384 Workers' remittances (net) 4,462 4,500 1,191 1,166 1,181 1,295 1,354 1,353 1,380 Other transfers (net) Source: Bank Indonesia 13

14 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows The Exchange Rate and The Stock Price Rp/USD ISX Index 12, ,100 11, ,100 10, ,100 9, ,100 8,600 1/08 2/08 4/08 5/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 11/08 12/ Source: CEIC database Rp/USD IDX Index 14

15 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows The Rupiah has depreciated 17.51% while Indonesia Stock Exchange Index dropped 51.17% with equity market capitalization value down 46.42% during 2008 Government Securities (SUN) market: total volume in 2008 was IDR trillions, down from IDR 1564 trillion in 2007 with average daily transaction of 266 times (slightly higher than 253 in 2007) 15

16 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows Source: DMO, MoF SUN 10Y yield reached the highest at the end of October 2008 (20.96%), came down after inflationary pressures eased and Bank Indonesia decided to cut interest rate on December

17 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows Indonesia: Net Foreign Equity Purchase, E+12 6E+12 4E+12 2E+12 0 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sept 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08-2E+12-4E+12 Source: BEI 17

18 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows Graph 3. Indonesia: Foreign ownership of Government Securities, 2008 (IDR trillions) 110, ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Source: DMO, MoF 18

19 Preliminary Impacts on Capital Flows Up to end of 3 rd quarter 2008, capital and financial account still recorded a surplus. However, it was much lower (USD 2.6 billions => USD 0.5 billions) Source of surplus: relatively steady FDI and slight increase in private sector loan drawings Source of deficit: net portfolio investment (capital outflow in the form of sale of government securities/sun, SBI and equity) since September

20 Indonesia: Balance of Payment, up to September

21 Preliminary Impacts on Banking Sector Banking Sector Performance: CAR: 16.77% ROA: 2.60%, ROE: LDR: 77.6%, NPL: 4% (Gross), 1.5% (net) Credit growth: 36.6% (up to Nov 08) with third-party fund grew only 18%. The rest of credit growth was funded by a decline in secondary reserves in banking sector. This led to a liquidity squeeze in the domestic banking sector 21

22 Preliminary Impacts on Banking Sector Rupiah depreciation adversely impact banking sector in 97/98 crisis. Currently, with NOP of 4.33% (June 08), banking sector seemed to cope well with the depreciation Gov t securities sell-off by foreign investors had cost banking sector apprx. IDR 1.4 trillions (June 2008). With revenue of IDR 220 trillions, the cost seemed trivial for banking industry so far. 22

23 Job Creation and Poverty Reduction Outlook Poverty reduction efforts will be affected. However, it won t be as severe as the 97/98 crisis. Self-sufficiency in rice production No hyperinflation (low fuel price and basic commodities prices) Good rainy season, so far With the coming election period, it is assumed that household and private sector s expenditures would still be high 23

24 Job Creation and Poverty Reduction Outlook The GoI is known to be very slow in budget disbursement => problem to deal with is project design and supervision that leads to low absorption of government spending Tax reduction will shift this burden of maintaining domestic demand growth to private and household sector Job creation assumption: 1% economic growth equivalent to 400,000 new jobs 24

25 Sectoral Growth Outlook Estimated Impact of Global Crisis to Sectoral Growth Product Orientation (%) Growth rate (%) Domestic Export * 1 Farm Food Crops Non Food Crops Livestock and Products Forestry Fisheries Petroleum and Gas Mining Non Petroleum Mining Quarrying Non Oil/Gas Manufacturing Oil/Gas Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water supply Construction Trade Restaurant and Hotels Transportation Communication Financial General Gov't Services Other services Others GDP

26 Government Measures Maintaining Financial Market Stability Bank Indonesia increased interest rate benchmark to defend the Rupiah depreciation (October 2008) BI also freeing banks of mark-to-market obligations on their bond holdings Ministry of Finance and BI issued 2 government regulation in-lieu-of-law (PERPU) on collateral and banks deposit guarantee that effectively increases amount of deposits guaranteed to IDR 2 billions In November 2008, reserve requirement ratio were down from 9.08% to 7.5% to provide more liquidity in the banking sector 26

27 Government Measures Maintaining Financial Market Stability At the same time, BI injected liquidity to banking sector by lengthening the tenor of forex swap from 7 days to 1 month Requiring state-owned enterprises (SOE) to place their funds in domestic banks to increase liquidity in the banking system Relaxing capital market regulation in equity buyback MoF, through PIP, bought back IDR 41 billions worth of SUN 27

28 Government Measures Maintaining Financial Market Stability Managing SOE s forex transactions to reduce speculation BI bans trading in structured products In December 2008, BI requires banks to keep GWM of 5% only, with rest 2.5% should be met by October 2009 Re-submitting financial crisis bill (financial sector safety net) 28

29 Government Measures Facilitating Trade MoT issued a ruling to curb illegal imports: 5 categories of goods can be imported through five major seaports only BI provides export financing facilities 29

30 Government Measures Fiscal Stimulus (combined with Bank Indonesia s interest rate cut) to address depleting purchasing power: Reduction in income tax tariff and increase minimum threshold of employee s taxable income Increasing government employee salary by 15% and one-month salary bonus Providing direct subsidies for low-income households (BLT) and indirect subsidies through education and health sectors, reducing fuel prices Offering subsidies on generic medicine and cooking oil 30

31 Government Measures Fiscal Stimulus to address unemployment and poverty reduction Expansion of credit program and peoples empowerment (PNPM) Faster disbursement on gov t-funded infrastructure projects Reduction of cost of business by relaxing taxes on selected sectors (e.g CPO) which are qualified according to certain criteria and selected regions, facilitating import duties on selected capital goods (autoparts etc.), providing export financing and guarantee 31

32 Budget Financing for Fiscal Stimulus Healthy government budget: government debt/gdp ratio Perce entage Source: DMO, MoF 32

33 Budget Financing for Fiscal Stimulus Government budget deficits remains low, 2008 deficit realization reached only USD 0.4 billions (from the deficit plan of USD 5.7 billions) Unspent 2008 realization deficit in the amount of USD 4.7 billions (1% of GDP) is to be used for stimulus package Additional debt (USD 3.4 billions) from bilateral and multilateral standby loan 33

34 Thank you 34

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