Second Quarter HH Consumption. Average. Growth of HH Consumption. Labour Force Ratio. Source: BPS (processed) Building Investment (rhs)
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5 HH Consumption Average Growth of HH Consumption Labour Force Ratio Quarter before fuel price hike Moments of fuel price hike Quarter after fuel price hike Source: BPS (processed) Building Investment (rhs) Moments of fuel price hike Non-Building Investment Quarter before fuel price hike Quarter after fuel price hike Domestic Sales Growth (rhs) Source: BPS (processed) Source: Indonesia Cement Association, Citiresearch
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9 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Second Quarter 2013 %,yoy Consumer Price Index (CPI) %,yoy 250 Consumer Price Expectation Index (next 3 months) 20 Consumer Price Expectation Index (next 6 months) Consumer Price Expectation Index next 6 months (CMA 5) %,yoy Administered Prices Inflation Expectation (SPE 3 months), RHS Inflation Expectation (SPE 6 Months), RHS Expectation before policy is implemented Index
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11 contracting expanding Second Quarter 2013 Index % thousands ribu ISM Manufacture ISM Services 35 Source: Bloomberg Date Jun Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan Monthly Change Nonfarm Payrolls (RHS) Unemployment Rate 5 Source Bloomberg Date May Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan
12 % yoy Unemployment (RHS) % Dept. Store Sales -8 Retail Sales Source: Bloomberg Date May 2013 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr Index, level % yoy Index NBS PMI Manuf HSBC PMI Manuf 43 Source: Bloomberg Date Jun Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan Industrial Production -10 PMI Manufacturing (RHS) -15 Date May Source: Bloomberg Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan
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15 Business Tendency Index (rhs) Income Capacity Utilization Working hour
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20 1 M Premium 6 M premium 3 M premium 12 M premium
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22 Exchange Rate (dep (-)/apr (-), %, yoy Import Price Index (imported inflation proxy, & yoy) *) Core Tradable Inflation (% yoy, rhs) Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Sector *) global price composit index-weighted average (based on imports percentage and weight in CPI basket) from food commodities (CPO, wheat, sugar, corn, and soybean), oil price (WTI), gold, iron and tissues
23 CPI Inflation (rhs) Consumer Price Expectation Index 3 months ahead Consumer Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead Consumer Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead (CMA 5) Inflation Expectation 1 quarter ahead (Qt + 1) Inflation Expectation 2 quarter ahead (Qt + 2)
24 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan Second Quarter 2013 Interest Rate (%) Quarter II-2012 Quarter III-2012 Quarter IV-2012 Quarter I-2013 Quarter II-2013 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun BI Rate 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 6,00 Deposit Guarantee 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,75 1-month Deposit (Weighted Average) 5,35 5,39 5,39 5,42 5,40 5,49 5,42 5,58 5,49 5,43 5,51 5,42 5,53 n.a Working Capital Credit 11,78 11,79 11,78 11,73 11,70 11,68 11,61 11,49 11,49 11,45 11,44 11,44 11,46 n.a Investment Credit 11,51 11,46 11,42 11,35 11,36 11,29 11,24 11,27 11,29 11,27 11,24 11,21 11,17 n.a Consumption Credit 14,03 13,90 13,92 13,69 13,67 13,60 13,53 13,58 13,40 13,22 13,28 13,22 13,20 n.a % Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Mei % Per Mei 2013 korelasi: rlps dan rdep :0.91 korelasi ; BI rate dan rdep: 0.87 % Selisih rkredit Spread - rdepo1: : 6,46% 6.46% Working Capital Investment Consumption Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK Spread-rhs Sb Credit Kredit Interest Rate Sb 1-mo Dep Deposit 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS LPS Interest Rate Interest Rate Fund (rhs) Savings Demand Deposit Time Deposit Contribution to growth (%) Fund (rhs) Savings Demand Deposit Time Deposit As of May 2013 As of May 2013
25 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nop-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Des-10 Mei-11 Okt-11 Mar-12 Agust-12 Jan-13 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Agust-08 Okt-08 Des-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Agust-09 Okt-09 Des-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Agust-10 Okt-10 Des-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Agust-11 Okt-11 Des-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Agust-12 Okt-12 Des-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Second Quarter % yoy Total Loan Kredit WC KMK IC KI KK As Per of May Mei % Contribution Kontribusi to Pertumbuhan growth Loan(rhs) Kredit (rhs) KMK WC IC KI CC KK As of May 2013 Per Mei %, yoy Agriculture Pertanian Manufacturing Industri Pengolahan Construction Konstruksi Transportation Pengangkutan Pertambangan Mining Listrik, Electricity Air dan Gas Perdagangan Trade Jasa Business Dunia Services Usaha -20
26 30 25 %, yoy % M2 M1 BI Rate (RHS) Rata-rata periode sebelum krisis Mei 2006-Sept 2008 M1: 21.5%, M2: 15,7% 0 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr
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28 Main Indicators May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total Asset (T Rp) 3.827, , , , , , , , , , , , ,7 Third Party Fund (T Rp) 2.909, , , , , , , , , , , , ,7 Credit * (T Rp) 2.386, , , , , , , , , , , , ,1 LDR* (%) 82,0 83,0 83,4 84,1 83,8 84,2 84,0 84,7 83,9 85,5 86,1 85,6 86,3 NPLs Gross* (%) 2,3 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,2 2,0 2,2 2,0 2,4 2,3 2,0 2,0 CAR (%) 17,9 17,5 17,3 17,3 17,4 17,3 17,4 17,4 19,2 19,2 18,3 18,6 18,4 NIM (%) 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,3 5,2 5,4 5,4 ROA (%) 3,0 3,2 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 2,9 3,1 2,9 3,0 * without channeling
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