Economic Chartpack Astor Investment Manangement LLC

Transcription

1 Economic Chartpack Astor Investment Manangement LLC April 16, 2019 name last last ref mo release date bbg survey Jobless Claims Apr Thu, Apr Retail Sales Feb Thu, Apr Markit PMI Mar Thu, Apr Index of Leading Economic Indicators 0.20 Feb Thu, Apr Housing starts Feb Fri, Apr Home sales 5.51 Feb Mon, Apr Durable goods Feb Thu, Apr GDP 2.20 Dec Fri, Apr U of Mich Sentiment Apr Fri, Apr 26 Table 1: Key releases next two weeks

2 Astor Economic Index 2000 to date Very Strong Average Very Weak Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Source: Astor calculations Astor Economic Index 2014 to date Very Strong Average Very Weak Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Source: Astor calculations The Astor Economic Index R should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decision. There is no guarantee that the index will produce the same results in the future. Please refer to the accompanying disclosure for additional information regarding the Index. 1

3 Astor Consumer Sentiment Index, 2000 to date Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Astor Consumer Sentiment Index, 2014 to date Source: Bloomberg, Astor calculations Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Source: Bloomberg, Astor calculations 2

4 Astor and KC Fed Financial stress indexes 1995 to date 10 5 AFSI KCFSI 0 Jan 00 Jan 10 Jan 20 Source: KC Fed, Astor calculations Astor and KC Fed Financial stress indexes 2014 to date 1 AFSI 0 KCFSI 1 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Source: KC Fed, Astor calculations 3

5 US real GDP, year over year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4

6 Non farm payrolls Millions Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Non farm payrolls, year over year percentage change 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5

7 Direct measures of labor market slack Unemployment (U3) Underemployment (U6) Employment population ratio: years Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6

8 Wages and Salaries, nominal, year on year change 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Wages and salaries Average hourly earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index, Employment Situation Report 7

9 ISM purchasing manager's indexes 60 Svc Man Man: Manufacturing PMI, Svc: Services PMI 50 represents activity which is neither increasing nor decreasing Source: Institute of Supply Management 8

10 Year over year percentage change in Industrial Production 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Source: Federal Reserve Board 9

11 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment, y/y 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 10

12 6 Real Personal consumption expenditures, YOY Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 11

13 Core inflation CPI PCE 1 Shaded blue area is FOMC's 2% target for PCE CPI = Core consumer price index, PCE = core Personal consumption expenditures price index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Pink shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER. Blue shaded reigon represents the FOMC inflation target for PCE. 12

14 M2 year on year percentage change 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 13

15 World Manufacturing PMIs, GDP weighted Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan = level where activity is neither increasing nor decreasing Source: Markit, Institute for Supply Management, Astor calculations 14

16 Key US rates yr FF 2 yr 0 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan yr: US ten year bond yield, 2 yr: US two year bond yield, FF: fed funds target rate Source: Bloomberg Spread between US 10 year yield US 2 year yield Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Jan 20 Source: Bloomberg 15

17 S&P 500 index US Dollar broad, trade weighted index Front WTI crude oil contract CRB Commodity index, level Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Source for all indexes on this page: Bloomberg. 16

18 Disclosures All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. The Astor Economic Index R is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic Index R is designed to track the varying levels of growth within the U.S. economy by analyzing current trends against historical data. The Astor Economic Index R is not an investable product. When investing, there are multiple factors to consider. The Astor Economic Index R should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. The Index is based on retroactive data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee the Index will produce the same results in the future. The Astor Economic Index R is a tool created and used by Astor. All conclusions are those of Astor and are subject to change. Approval code