CONSUMER SURVEY. August 2017

Transcription

1 CONSUMER SURVEY August The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that respondents were remained optimistic on economic conditions in August though less upbeat. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from The Survey also showed that respondents were primarily upbeat on job availability in the next six months. In contrast, however, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI. Congruent with the lower income index, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1%. Less consumption was accompanied by a greater inclination to save, representing an intertemporal adjustment in the pattern of public consumption. Consumers predicted inflationary pressures to accelerate in the next three and six months and then to ease in the next 12 months. A. Consumer Confidence Respondents remained optimistics but less upbeat in August. A1. Consumer Confidence Index The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were less upbeat on economic conditions in August but remained optimistic (index > 100) with a persistently high CCI recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from (Graph 1) the month earlier. Respondents were primarily upbeat on the job availability index in the next six months. In contrast, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI. The flagging CCI in August affected nearly all respondent groups, particularly those spending Rp4.1-5 million and Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged (Graph 2 and 3). Regionally, the deepest CCI declines were reported in Banjarmasin (-8.5 points), Mataram (-7.2 points) and Jakarta (-6.7 points). Methodology The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1

2 Consumer Survey Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. A2. Current Economic Condition Index Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period. Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period, reflected by a dip of 2.6 points in the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) for August to 110.6, stemming from the current income index and conditions for buying durable goods index (Graph 4). Graph 4. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Real Sector Statistics Division 2

3 Consumer Survey In August, the current income index fell 5.6 points to 121.3, which is still deep in optimistic territory (index > 100). Notwithstanding, the current income index decline affected all respondent groups, particularly those with a monthly spend of Rp4.1-5 million as well as those aged and (Graph 5 and 6). Meanwhile, the dip of 3.7 points reported in the conditions for buying durable goods index to affected nearly all respondent groups, most significantly those spending Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged and (Graph 7 and 8). Respondents cited electronic goods and household furniture for the decline. Graph 5. CECI by Spending Level Graph 6. CE Graph 7. Buying durable goods Index by Spending Level Graph 8. Buying durable goods Index by Ages A3. Consumer Expectation Index Respondents were also less upbeat on future economic conditions. Despite ongoing optimism, respondents were slightly less upbeat on future economic conditions in August, with the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) edged down from to by lower business and income expectations, contrasting the optimistic outlook for future job availability (Graph 4). In August, the job availability index tracked an upward trend, rising 2.2 points to 120.1, on the back of respondents with a tertiary education as well as those aged (Graph 10 and 11). In addition, the recent proliferation of government infrastructure development projects further boosted optimism amongst respondents. Real Sector Statistics Division 3

4 Consumer Survey Graph 9. Consumer Expectation Index by Components Conversely, respondents confirmed a 3.3-point decline the business expectations index to a level of 134.9, which affected nearly all respondent groups based on spending and age. The deepest declines affected those spending Rp3.1-4 million monthly and retirees aged over 60 (Graph 12 and 13) due to escalating inflationary pressures that could subdue future business activity. The income expectations index was also observed to decline, falling 0.2 points to on the previous period. Respondents spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, as well as those aged 51-60, reported the deepest declines (Graph 14 and 15). Nevertheless, respondents did expect incomes/turnover to improve in the next six months, although the outlook was not as promising as conditions reported one month earlier. Graph 10. Job Availability Expectation by Graph 11. Job Availability Expectation by Real Sector Statistics Division 4

5 Consumer Survey Graph 12. Business Condition Expectation Graph 13. Business Condition Expectation Graph 14. Income Expectation by Spending Level Graph 15. Income Expectation by B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1. Consumer Income Respondents were less inclined to consume. Congruent with the lower income index in August, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1% (Graph 16). Graph 16. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Real Sector Statistics Division 5

6 Consumer Survey Respondents spending more than Rp 3 million per month were less inclined to consume, contrasting those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, who were more disposed to consume. Meanwhile, a higher savings to income ratio was confirmed by all respondent groups, especially those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million monthly. Graph 17. by Spending Level Graph 18. Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in the next three months. Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in November compared to conditions last period, with the 3-month household consumption index confirmed to rise from to 156.6, primarily on food purchases. Graph 19. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Respondents predicted to save more in the next six months. Respondents also expected to save more in the next six months (February 2018), while rising loan repayments were predicted to slow, indicated by an increase in the 6-month savings expectation index of 2.1 points to 113.3, while the debt expectation index decreased 2.4 points to (Graph 20). Real Sector Statistics Division 6

7 Consumer Survey Graph 20. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months B3. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits and term deposits. Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits/term deposits over the upcoming 12 months. Most (52.3%) respondents reported that savings deposits and term deposits were their preferred destination for disposable income, increasing from 49.6% in the previous period. In addition to savings deposits and term deposits, 21.8% of respondents preferred to invest in property, while 14.9% placed their disposable income in gold/jewellery (Graph 21). Graph 21. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Respondents were less inclined to buy/build a house. In the upcoming 12 months (September August 2018), 5.4% of respondents expressed a distinct desire to buy/build a house, down on the previous period. Meanwhile, 28.3% of respondents thought that buying/building a house was a possibility and 66.3% expressed no desire to buy/build a house or were unsure (Graph 22). Real Sector Statistics Division 7

8 Consumer Survey Graph 22. Placement Plan on Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate in the next 3 months. C1. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 Months Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate slightly in November, driven by concerns over an electricity rate hike, which triggered a 0.7-bump in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to (Graph 23). Regionally, an increase in the 3-month PEI was reported in nine of the cities surveyed, particularly in Manado (21.0 points) and Semarang (17.0 points). Graph 23. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build in the next 6 months. C2. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 6 Months Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build at the administered prices in the form of electricity rates and energy prices (fuels and LPG). In August, the 6-month PEI stood at 173.3, up 1.8 points on the previous period (Graph 24). Regionally, an increase in the 6-month PEI was Real Sector Statistics Division 8

9 Consumer Survey reported in nine cities, most significantly in Semarang (20.4 points) and Padang (11.0 points). Graph 24. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months C3. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 12 Months Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months, reflecting a 12-month PEI of 175.8, up 1.8 points on the month earlier (Graph 24). Regionally, a decline in the 12-month PEI was reported in 10 cities, particularly in Pontianak (-26.0 points) and Banten (-17.5 points). Graph 25. Price Expectation Index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 9

10 Table 1. Consumer Confidence Index and Prices Expectation Index Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Current Economic Condition Index (compared to the previous 6 months) - Current Incomes Index Employment Conditions Index Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index Consumer Expectation Index (the next 6 months compared to the current condition) - Incomes Expectation Index Employment Conditions Expectation Index Business Activities Expectation Index B. Price Expectations Index - Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 10

11 Table 2. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Expenditure Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B1. Current Income Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B2. Employment Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C1. Incomes Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million Real Sector Statistics Division 11

12 Table 3. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Age Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) year year year year >60 year B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) year year year year >60 year C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) year year year year >60 year B1. Current Income Index year year year year >60 year B2. Employment Conditions Index year year year year >60 year B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index year year year year >60 year C1. Incomes Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C3. Business Activities Expectation Index year year year year >60 year Real Sector Statistics Division 12

13 Table 4. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Education Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B1. Current Income Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B2. Employment Conditions Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C1. Incomes Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 13

14 Table 5. Household Income Allocation by Respondents Expenditure Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Total - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings F. > Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Real Sector Statistics Division 14

15 Table 5. Consumption, Saving and Debt Expectation Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Total - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months F. > Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months Table 6. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Excess Income Allocation Plan in the Next 12 Months - Saving/ Deposit Gold/ Jewelry Equity/ Mutual funds Property (land, house, apartment) Others A. House Purchase/Construction Plan in the Next 12 Months - Very Possible Possible No Desire Real Sector Statistics Division 15

16 Table 7. Consumer Confidence Index by Region Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 16

17 Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 11. Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Padang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Banten - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead Real Sector Statistics Division 17

18 Table 7. Profile Respondent Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Gender - Male Female Household Expenses - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million Ages years years years years years above Educational Level - High School Diploma University Graduate/Post Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 18