Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors

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1 Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors wa uary The growth of liquidity in the economy, or broad money (M2), decelerated in uary to 7.7% (yoy) from 8.9% (yoy) in ember. By component, slower growth of quasi-money (term deposits and savings deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency, as well as foreign currency demand deposits), which decelerated from 8.4% in ember to 6.2%, contributed to a weaker M2 growth. Based on its determinants, sluggish M2 growth was attributed to a credit slump. The position of outstanding credit disbursed by banks at the end of uary totalled Rp4,009.4 trillion, with growth decelerating from 10.1% (yoy) the month earlier to 9.3% (yoy) in uary. Slower credit growth affected productive loans, including working capital credit and investment credit. Term deposit rates were lowered in the reporting period, while lending rates remained unchanged. In uary, interest rates on 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24-month term deposits were lowered respectively from 7.60%, 7.99%, 8.54%, 8.47% and 9.07% to 7.51%, 7.90%, 8.50%, 8.43% and 9.06%. Meanwhile, lending rates in uary were relatively stable at 12.83%. Graph 1. Growth of GDP, Money Supply, Deposits and Loans Table 1. Money Supply % (yoy) '15 '16* Broad Money (M2) 4, , Narrow Money (M1) 1, , o/w: Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks Quasi Money 3, , Securities Other Than Shares (38.1) (31.7) Since uary 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember THE COMPONENTS OF MONEY SUPPLY The growth of liquidity in the economy, or broad money (M2) 1, decelerated in uary. The position of M2 stood at Rp4,497.6 trillion in the reporting month, with growth slowing from 8.9% (yoy) in ember to 7.7% (yoy). Quasi-money 2 was the primary contributor to the M2 slowdown, contrasting M1 growth that accelerated in uary to prevent further declines in M2. The position of quasi-money at the end of uary was recorded at Rp3,435.6 trillion, with growth sliding from 8.4% (yoy) the month earlier to 6.2% (yoy) in uary due to weaker growth of foreign currency deposits. On the other hand, the position of M1, which is a measure of Currency Outside Banks (COB) and 1 Money supply is defined as the narrow (M1) and broad (M2) aggregates. M1 is a measure of Currency Outside Banks (COB) and rupiah demand deposits, while M2 consists of M1, quasi-money and securities issued by the monetary system and held by the private sector with remaining maturity of up to one year. 2 Quasi-money consists of private deposits, including term deposits and savings deposits (denominated in rupiah and a foreign currency) as well as foreign currency demand deposits. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 1

2 Deposits Table 2. Deposits % (yoy) Des'15 '16* Rupiah 3, , Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 1, , Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit (2.3) Total 4, , Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 1, , *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember Table 3. Factors Affecting Money Supply % yoy '15 '16* Factors Affecting Broad Money 4, , Net Foreign Assets 1, , (4.3) Net Domestic Assets 3, , Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government (14.9) Claims on Other Sector 4, , o/w: Loans 4 4, , Equity (1,172.5) (1,202.8) Net Other Items Since uary 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember rupiah demand deposits, tracked an accelerating trend from 12.0% (yoy) the month earlier to 14.0% (yoy) in uary. The increase stemmed from expansive financial operations of the central government level at the beginning of in order to accelerate state spending, representing a departure from historical norms of a contraction at the onset of the new year. Meanwhile, private deposits (third-party deposits) held at banks 3 recorded slower growth at 6.9% (yoy) in uary, primarily affecting foreign currency deposits. Furthermore, growth of foreign currency demand deposits and savings deposits slowed respectively from 12.6% (yoy) and 25.4% (yoy) in ember to 3.8% (yoy) and 22.0% (yoy) in uary. Term deposits decelerated 2.3% (yoy) in uary, while rupiah denominated deposits recorded stable growth of 7.6% (yoy) in the same period (Table 2). DETERMINANTS OF MONEY SUPPLY Slower M2 growth was attributed to a credit slump. The position of outstanding credit 4 disbursed by banks at the end of uary totalled Rp4,009.4 trillion, with growth decelerating from 10.1% (yoy) the month earlier to 9.3% (yoy) in uary (Table 3). Slower credit growth affected productive loans, including working capital credit and investment credit. 3 Private deposits are third-party deposits held at commercial banks and rural banks in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits and term deposits denominated in rupiah and a foreign currency. In terms of money supply, private deposits exclude those blocked due to a loss of function. For analysis purposes, however, private deposits include blocked deposits and third-party deposits (excluding the Government and nonresidents) denominated in rupiah and a foreign currency held at commercial banks and rural banks (excluding branches operating internationally) in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits and term deposits. 4 Disbursed credit is limited exclusively to loans and excludes financial instruments marketed with loans, such as debt securities, bankers acceptances and repo claims. Furthermore, disbursed credit also excludes loans extended by commercial banks operating internationally as well as loans allocated to the central government and non-residents. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 2

3 Table 4. Loans to the Manufacturing, Construction and Trade, Hotels and Restaurants (THR) Sector Credit % yoy '15 '16* Working Capital Loans 1, , o/w Manufacturing Industry Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Investment Credit 1, , o/w Manufacturing Industry Construction Since uary 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember Table 5. MSME Loans by Commercial Banks yoy (%) '15 '16 Business Scale Micro Small Medium Type of Loans Working Capital Loans Invesment Loans Total Graph 2. Lending for the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector, Property and Manufacturing Table e 6. Property Credit % (yoy) Des'15 '16* Property Loans Housing and Apartment Ownership Credits Construction Credits Real Estate Credits *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember Outstanding working capital credit was recorded at Rp1,839.3 trillion, with growth slipping from 8.4% (yoy) the month earlier to 6.9% (yoy) in uary. The downshift affected loans extended to the manufacturing industry as well as the trade, hotels and restaurants (THR) sector, with growth slowing from 11.5% (yoy) and 10.3% (yoy) respectively to 9.3% (yoy) and 8.4% (yoy). In addition, the position of investment credit disbursed by the banking industry stood at Rp1,025.1 trillion, while growth decelerated from 14.6% (yoy) to 13.8% (yoy) in uary. By sector, weaker investment credit growth particularly affected the manufacturing and construction sectors as growth slowed respectively from 21.7% (yoy) and 16.0% (yoy) to 18.3% (yoy) and 13.9% (yoy) (Table 4). Conversely, credit allocated to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) recorded stable growth. Accordingly, MSMEs credit disbursed by the banking sector in uary stood at Rp719.2 trillion, with growth stable at 10.1% (yoy). Growth of microcredit, however, slowed from 17.5% (yoy) on the month earlier to 16.1 (yoy), contrasting positive credit growth extended to small and medium enterprises, accelerating respectively from 6.9% (yoy) and 9.0% (yoy) to 7.4% (yoy) and 9.1% (yoy) in uary (Table 5). Credit to the property sector also experienced a weaker growth in uary, slowing from 11.8% (yoy) in ember to 11.7% (yoy) and totalling Rp609.6 trillion. Loans to the construction sector precipitated the decline (Table 6). Weaker growth of credit to the property sector DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 3

4 was offset, however, by positive growth of mortgage loans and real estate loans, accelerating respectively from 7.4% (yoy) and 18.4% (yoy) to 7.5% (yoy) and 20.4% (yoy). Graph 3. Developments in the BI B I Rate and Time Deposit and Lending Interest Rates DEPOSITS AND LENDING RATES Term deposit rates 5 were lowered in the reporting period, while lending rates remained unchanged. In uary, interest rates on 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24-month term deposits were lowered respectively from 7.60%, 7.99%, 8.54%, 8.47% and 9.07% to 7.51%, 7.90%, 8.50%, 8.43% and 9.06%. Meanwhile, lending rates in uary were relatively stable at 12.83%. MARCH MONETARY AND FISCAL STATISTICS DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT 5 Interest rates are calculated based on commercial banks, excluding rural banks. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 4

5 Appendix 1. Money Supply and Its Affecting Factors Description Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Broad Money (M2) 4, , , , , , , , , , , , ,497.6 Narrow Money (M1) , , , , , , , ,046.4 Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks Rupiah Demand Deposits Quasi Money 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,435.6 Time Deposits 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,862.5 Rupiah 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,606.4 Foreign Currency Savings Deposits 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,309.0 Rupiah 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,195.5 Foreign Currency Foreign Currency Demand Deposits Securities Other Than Shares Factors Affecting Broad Money 4, , , , , , , , , , , , ,497.6 Net Foreign Assets 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,143.2 Net Domestic Assets 2, , , , , , , , , , , , ,354.4 Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government Claims on Other Sector 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,277.0 Claims on Other Financial Institutions: Loans Other Claims Claims on State and Local Government: Loans Other Claims Claims on Public NonFinancial Corporations: Loans Other Claims Claims on Private Sectors 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,775.5 Loans 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,615.1 Other Claims Equity (1,060.1) (1,075.0) (1,076.7) (1,058.1) (1,071.8) (1,082.9) (1,095.1) (1,138.1) (1,187.5) (1,136.9) (1,157.2) (1,172.5) (1,202.8) Net Other Items Since uary 2012 BPR included BPR Syariah In Money Supply Statistics (Appendix 1), credit extended includes Loans, Banker s Acceptances, and Repo claim. *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 5

6 Appendix 2. Money Supply Growth and its Affecting Factors Description Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Broad Money (M2) Narrow Money (M1) Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks (4.7) Rupiah Demand Deposits Quasi Money Time Deposits Rupiah Foreign Currency (3.3) Savings Deposits Rupiah Foreign Currency Foreign Currency Demand Deposits Securities Other Than Shares 2.9 (16.0) (4.1) (12.5) (31.5) (38.1) (31.7) Factors Affecting Broad Money Net Foreign Assets (4.3) Net Domestic Assets Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government 5.8 (1.4) (15.9) (9.8) 2.9 (2.5) (6.3) 1.7 (14.6) (0.5) (3.0) 32.9 (14.9) Claims on Other Sector Claims on Other Financial Institutions: (1) 8 11 Loans (1) (5) 7 9 Other Claims Claims on State and Local Government: (1) (2) (3) (2) 1 Loans (1) (2) (3) (2) 1 Other Claims (21) (21) (21) (21) Claims on Public NonFinancial Corporations: 9 5 (2) (3) Loans 9 1 (8) (2) (3) (4) (9) Other Claims Claims on Private Sectors Loans Other Claims (15.4) (17.1) (11.9) Equity Net Other Items (7.9) (15.6) Since uary 2012 BPR included BPR Syariah In Money Supply Statistics (Appendix 1), credit extended includes Loans, Banker s Acceptances, and Repo claim. *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember Appendix 3. Private Deposits in i the Banking System Deposits Feb Mar *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ember Apr May Jun Rupiah 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,599.1 Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,237.1 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,715.8 Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit Total 4, , , , , , , , , , , , ,288.0 Demand Deposit , , Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,352.7 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,995.1 Exchange Rate Rp/USD 12, , , , , , , , , , , , ,846.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 6

7 Appendix 4. Bank Lending to the Domestic Private Sector Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Currency of Denomination Rupiah 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,435.6 Foreign Currency Type of Loans Investment Loans , ,025.1 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Working Capital Loans 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,839.3 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Consumer Loans 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,145.1 Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,009.4 DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 7

Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors

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