CONSUMER SURVEY. A1. Consumer Confidence Index

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CONSUMER SURVEY April 2018 The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were more optimistic on economic condition in April 2018 compared to the previous period, with the Consumer

1 CONSUMER SURVEY April 2018 The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were more optimistic on economic condition in April 2018 compared to the previous period, with the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) climbing 0.6 points in April 2018 to Consumers were upbeat on future economic dynamics and maintained optimism concerning prevailing economic conditions. Furthermore, consumer expectations of increasing business activity in the next 6 months were the key driver of the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), while the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) was boosted by persistently strong purchases of durable goods supported by supported by the increasing income. The Survey also revealed that respondents expected milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (July 2018) as demand for goods and services returns to normal after Eid-ul-Fitr. The 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) sliding from to A. Consumer Confidence Consumers were more upbeat in April A1. Consumer Confidence Index The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were more upbeat on current economic dynamics in April 2018 compared to conditions in the previous period. The CCI climbing from in March 2018 to boosted by a 1.3-point bump in the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), while the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) was stable (Graph 1). Respondents spending more than Rp3 million per month and those aged as well as over 60 reported CCI gains (Graph 2 and Graph 3). Regionally, however, respondents in 9 of the cities surveyed confirmed a higher CCI, with the strongest gains reported in Pontianak (9.3 points) and Semarang (8.1 points). Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index Methodology The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1

Consumer Survey Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. A2. Current Economic Condition Index Consumers maintained stable optimism concerning prevailing economic conditions.

CECI stability was maintained by an increase in the Current Income Index of 0.5 points to 121.2 coupled with a stable Conditions for Buying Durable Goods Index at a level of 113.9.

2 Consumer Survey Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. A2. Current Economic Condition Index Consumers maintained stable optimism concerning prevailing economic conditions. Consumers maintained stable optimism concerning prevailing economic conditions, with the corresponding index remaining in optimistic territory (>100) at in March and April CECI stability was maintained by an increase in the Current Income Index of 0.5 points to coupled with a stable Conditions for Buying Durable Goods Index at a level of In contrast, the Job Availability Index was observed to decline from 96.1 to 95.5 in April 2018 (Graph 4). Graph 4. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Respondents spending Rp2.1-4 million monthly enjoyed higher incomes, along with year olds and the over 60 years old (Graph 5 and Graph 6). Graph 5. Income Index by Spending Level Graph 6. Inome Index by Ages Real Sector Statistics Division 2

Consumer Survey Consumers maintained stable purchases of durable goods, with the Conditions for Buying Durable Goods Index remaining in optimistic territory at 113.9 (Graph 4).

monthly expenditure of Rp2-4 million and aged 20-40, who were less inclined to buy durable goods (Graph 7 and Graph 8). Graph 7. Spending Durable Goods Index Graph 8.

3 Consumer Survey Consumers maintained stable purchases of durable goods, with the Conditions for Buying Durable Goods Index remaining in optimistic territory at (Graph 4). Respondents spending more than Rp4 million per month and those aged over 40 tended to spend more on durable goods, such as electronics, vehicles and household furniture, contrasting those with a monthly expenditure of Rp2-4 million and aged 20-40, who were less inclined to buy durable goods (Graph 7 and Graph 8). Graph 7. Spending Durable Goods Index Graph 8. Spending Durable Goods Index by Spending Level Graph 9. Job Availability Index by Spending Level Graph 10. Job Availability Index by job availability in April 2018 (Graph 9) along with respondents from the and age (Graph 10). A3. Consumer Expectation Index Consumers anticipated more favourable future economic dynamics. Consumer expected more favourable economic dynamics in the next 6 months, with the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) increasing from the month earlier to in April 2018 (Graph 1). All components contributed to the upswing, particular consumer expectations of future business conditions, which ticked upwards 1.9 points to in the reporting period (Graph 11). Regionally, respondents in 10 cities reported CEI gains, most significantly in Semarang (10.3 points) and Pangkal Pinang (9.0 points). Real Sector Statistics Division 3

Consumers expected more intense national development in the latter half of 2018, coupled with controlled inflationary pressures on goods and services, to stimulate business activity moving forward.

4 Consumer Survey Graph 11. Consumer Expectation Index by Components Respondents spending Rp2.1-3million and more than Rp4 million per month reported CEI gains in April 2018 (Graph 12), together with respondents aged (Graph 13). Consumers expected more intense national development in the latter half of 2018, coupled with controlled inflationary pressures on goods and services, to stimulate business activity moving forward. Graph 12. Business Condition Expectation Index by Spending Level Graph 13. Business Condition Expectation Index Congruent with expected business expansion, the respondents predicted income and/or turnover in the next 6 months to increase, with those spending Rp2.1-3 million and Rp4.1-5 million per month (Graph 14) as well as nearly all age brackets predicting gains (Graph 15). Graph 14. Income Expectation Index by Spending Level Graph 15. Income Index Expectation by Real Sector Statistics Division 4

Consumer Survey Graph 16. Job Availability Expectation Index by Respondents Educational Level Graph 17.

job availability in the next 6 months. The expectation reflected by a moderate increase of 0.5 points in the Job Availability Expectation Index to 119.3. B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1.

Congruent with rising incomes in the reporting period and expectations of higher incomes in the next 6 moths, consumers were more inclined to consume in April 2018, as reflected by an increase in the

5 Consumer Survey Graph 16. Job Availability Expectation Index by Respondents Educational Level Graph 17. Job Availability Expectation Index Respondents with a high school education or diploma (Graph 16) as well as those aged above 30 (Graph 17) thought that increasing business activity would also boost job availability in the next 6 months. The expectation reflected by a moderate increase of 0.5 points in the Job Availability Expectation Index to B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1. Consumer Income Consumers were more inclined to consume and service debt in April Congruent with rising incomes in the reporting period and expectations of higher incomes in the next 6 moths, consumers were more inclined to consume in April 2018, as reflected by an increase in the average propensity to consume ratio from 63.9% to 66.0%, which was accompanied by a moderate upturn in the debt service to income ratio from 13.7% to 13.9%. In contrast, the saving to income ratio dropped from 22.4% to 22.0% in the reporting period (Graph 18). Based on spending, all respondent groups were more inclined to consume in the reporting period, particularly those with a monthly spend of more than Rp5 million (Graph 19). Furthermore, consonant with a greater propensity to consume, respondents from all spending brackets were less inclined to save in April 2018, especially those spending Rp3.1-4 million monthly (Graph 20). Graph 18. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Real Sector Statistics Division 5

Consumer Survey Graph 19. Consume Ratio by Spending Level Graph 20. by Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Households expected to spend more on consumption in the next 3 months.

fees must be paid, as confirmed by an increase in the 3-month Consumption Expectation Index of 1.7 points to 166.1 (Graph 21). Graph 21. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Graph 22.

7 points in the 6- month saving expectation index to 115.8 and a 1-point dip in the 6-month debt expectation index to 159.4 (Graph 22). B3.

6 Consumer Survey Graph 19. Consume Ratio by Spending Level Graph 20. by Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Households expected to spend more on consumption in the next 3 months. Households anticipated spending more on consumption in the next 3 months (July 2018) in preparation for the start of the new academic year, when demand for food and clothing increases and education fees must be paid, as confirmed by an increase in the 3-month Consumption Expectation Index of 1.7 points to (Graph 21). Graph 21. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Graph 22. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months In the next 6 months (October 2018), however, respondents predicted declines in savings and loans, as reflected by a decrease of 2.7 points in the 6- month saving expectation index to and a 1-point dip in the 6-month debt expectation index to (Graph 22). B3. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Most respondents prioritised savings/term deposits when placing their disposable income in the next 12 months. The percentage of respondents planning to buy/build a house witnessed a slight decrease. In April 2018, most respondents (45.4%) prioritised savings/term deposits when placing their disposable income in the next 12 months, declining from 46.0% the month earlier. Meanwhile, those favouring property has tracked an upward trend over the past 3 months, climbing to 23.6% of respondents. A total of 6.9% of respondents confirmed a discernible interest in buying or building a house (or extension) over the next 12 months, while 28.8% thought that buying or building a house was a possibility (Graph 24). Real Sector Statistics Division 6

Consumer Survey Graph 23. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Graph 24. Plan to Buy/Build Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations C1.

Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (July 2018) as demand for goods and services returns to normal after Eid-ul-Fitr, as indicated by a slump in the 3-month Price

Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Respondents predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in October 2018. C2.

7 Consumer Survey Graph 23. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Graph 24. Plan to Buy/Build Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations C1. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 Months Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in July Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (July 2018) as demand for goods and services returns to normal after Eid-ul-Fitr, as indicated by a slump in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) from to (Graph 25). Regionally, respondents in 6 cities reported a PEI decline, particularly in Samarinda (29 points) and Medan (17.8 points). Graph 25. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Respondents predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in October C2. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 6 Months Respondents predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 6 months (October 2018), stoked by consumer fears of fuel price and electricity rate hikes in the second half of the year, with the 6-month PEI rising 1.6 points from last month to (Graph 26). Regionally, respondents in 9 of the cities surveyed reported PEI gains, especially in Banten (13.5 points) and Samarinda (13 points). Real Sector Statistics Division 7

Respondents predicted inflationary pressures to moderate slightly in the next 12 months (April 2019), reflected by a decrease in the 12-month PEI

8 Consumer Survey Graph 26. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months C3. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 12 Months Respondents predicted inflationary pressures to moderate slightly in the next 12 months. Respondents predicted inflationary pressures to moderate slightly in the next 12 months (April 2019), reflected by a decrease in the 12-month PEI from180.0 to (Graph 27), with respondents in 7 cities predicting declines, most significantly in Medan (12.3 points) and Samarinda (7 points). Graph 27. Price Expectation Index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 8

9 Table 1. Consumer Confidence Index and Prices Expectation Index Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Current Economic Condition Index (compared to the previous 6 months) - Current Incomes Index Job Availability Index Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index Consumer Expectation Index (the next 6 months compared to the current condition) - Incomes Expectation Index Job Availability Expectation Index Business Activities Expectation Index B. Price Expectations Index - Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 9

10 Descriptions Table 2. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Expenditure Level Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B1. Current Income Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B2. Job Availability Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C1. Incomes Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C2. Job Availability Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million Real Sector Statistics Division 10

11 Descriptions Table 3. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Age Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) year year year year >60 year B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) year year year year >60 year C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) year year year year >60 year B1. Current Income Index year year year year >60 year B2. Job Availability Index year year year year >60 year B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index year year year year >60 year C1. Incomes Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C2. Job Availability Expectation Index year year year year >60 year C3. Business Activities Expectation Index year year year year >60 year Real Sector Statistics Division 11

12 Descriptions Table 4. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Education Level Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B1. Current Income Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B2. Job Availability Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C1. Incomes Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C2. Job Availability Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - High School Diploma Undergraduate Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 12

13 Table 5. Household Income Allocation by Respondents Expenditure Level Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Total - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings F. > Rp. 5 million - Consumption Loan Repayments Savings Table 6. Consumption, Saving and Debt Expectation Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Total - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months F. > Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months Table 7. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr - Mar) A. Excess Income Allocation Plan in the Next 12 Months - Saving/ Deposit Gold/ Jewelry Equity/ Mutual funds Property (land, house, apartment) Others B. House Purchase/Construction Plan in the Next 12 Months - Very Possible Possible No Desire Real Sector Statistics Division 13

14 Table 8. Consumer Confidence and Price Expectation Index by Region Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr-Mar) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Samarinda - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Padang Description Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 14

15 Description Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr (Apr-Mar) 13. Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Banten - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for the next 3 months Price expectations index for the next 6 months Price expectations index for the next 12 months Table 9. Respondent Figures Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Gender - Male Female Household Expenses - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million Over than Rp. 5 million Ages years years years years years above Educational Level - High School Diploma University Graduate/Post Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 15

CONSUMER SURVEY. January 2018

CONSUMER SURVEY. January 2018 CONSUMER SURVEY January 2018 The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey showed that consumers remained upbeat on current economic dynamics in January 2018, with no significant change reported in the Consumer Confidence