Australian Business Expectations Survey

Transcription

1 Australian Business Expectations Survey Dun & Bradstreet Q PRELIMINARY RESULTS RELEASED 3 NOVEMBER 2016

2 Index EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS AT 17-YEAR HIGH FOR Q Businesses are expecting a strong start to 2017, with expectations for profit, employment and capital investment at multi-year highs. In Dun and Bradstreet s October Business Expectations Survey, Australian companies also flagged higher selling prices and sales for the first quarter of 2017 compared to Q According to Stephen Koukoulas, economics adviser to Dun and Bradstreet: The economy is ending 2016 and moving into 2017 on a positive note. Business expectations for future sales remain upbeat and this has flowed through to a particularly buoyant outlook for profits. If these expectations are met in coming quarters, it is likely that the economy will be growing at a 3 to 3.5 percent pace, which would represent one of the strongest growth phases for Australia since the global financial crisis. Dun & Bradstreet s Business Expectations Index, the average of the survey s measures of Sales, Profits, Employment and Capital Investment, has jumped to 23.7 points for the March quarter of 2017, up 39.4 percent from 17.0 points for Q and 25.4 percent from 18.9 points in March The preliminary Q result is 15 points above the 10-year average of 8.7 points. The index is currently at its highest point in two years, having reached 23.9 points in Q Business Expectations Index 23.7 pts pts Business Expectations Index Business Actuals Index The Business Expectations Index is an aggregate of the survey s measures of sales, profits employment and investment expectations. The favourable business outlook is also evident with expectations for employment and capital investment hitting multi-year highs. It would appear that the low interest rate environment, the competitive level of the Australian dollar and steady global growth outlook has fed into this optimistic outlook, Mr Koukoulas said. Both employment and non-mining investment have been soft spots for the economy. If the upswing in business expectations translates to stronger growth in jobs and investment, the odds favouring further interest rate cuts from the RBA will quickly recede, Mr Koukoulas added. The Employment Expectations Index for Q climbed to 18.9 points, up from 13.0 points in the final quarter of 2016 and 12.0 points in the previous corresponding period. Some 25.3 percent of businesses said they expect to employ more staff in Q compared to Q1 2016, while 6.4 percent said they would employ fewer staff. The result marks a 17-year peak for employment expectations, with the index at its highest point since Q2 2000, when it hit 24.5 points. Plans for capital investment have bounced back, with the Capital Investment Expectations Index more than doubling from 7.9 points in the December quarter 2016 to 16.0 points for the March quarter 2017 its highest point since hitting 17.4 points in Q For the March quarter 2017, 21.5 percent of businesses

3 Sales Expectations Index Index said they would increase capital investment, compared to the 5.5 percent who said they would rein in capital investment spending. Of the seven industries surveyed, only the Retail industry flagged lower capital investment in Q compared to Q The Profit Expectations Index reached 28.7 points, up from 17.1 points in the previous quarter and 18.5 points a year earlier. The Profit Expectations Index is now at its highest point in six years, after reaching 29.7 points in Q Some 39.7 percent of companies expect higher profits in Q compared to Q1 2016, while 11.0 percent expect lower profits. 45 Business expectations: all industries Sales Employees Selling Prices Profits Capital Investment Meanwhile, the Selling Prices Expectations Index leapt from 9.3 points in the final quarter of 2016 to 17.8 points for the first quarter for The uptick in expected selling prices suggests that inflation may be near the low point for the cycle. Last week s official inflation data confirmed a moderate uptick in quarterly inflation, albeit from a very low base. If expected selling price increases as shown in the survey show up in actual selling prices over the next few quarters, inflation may surprise on the upside which would feed into Reserve Bank deliberation about monetary policy and official interest rates, Mr Koukoulas said Sales Expectations - All Industries All firms Manufacturers Wholesale Retail Construction Trasnport etc Finance etc Services 1.8 Q Q Q Of the seven industries surveyed, Construction was the only industry to see a decline in overall business expectations for the first quarter of Its individual Business Expectation Index slipped from 9.8 points to 6.6 points, driven by a slump in sales expectations. Construction s Sales Expectations Index plunged to 1.8 points for the March quarter of 2017, down from 20.6 points in the December quarter and 23.7 points a year earlier. Some 17.5 percent of Construction companies are anticipating an increase in sales in the March quarter of 2017, compared to the 15.7 percent who expect a decrease.

4 The Construction sector also saw a drop-off in profit expectations: its Profit Expectations Index fell to 7.8 points from 14.4 points in Q and 13.3 points in Q For the first quarter of 2017, 24.2 percent of Construction businesses forecast an increase in profits, while 16.4 percent expect a decrease. The sharp decline in expected sales and profits for the Construction industry reflects the results of the September survey, which showed that Construction businesses were the least optimistic about the outcome of July s federal election. In the current survey, when questioned about optimism regarding business growth in 2017, the Construction industry emerged as the least optimistic of all industries. By contrast, both the Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors saw increases across all components (Sales, Employment, Profits, Selling Prices and Capital Investment). The Manufacturing industry had the strongest improvement in expectations for Q compared to Q4 2016, with its individual Business Expectations Index almost doubling from 18.6 points to 35.7 points. The Wholesale Business Expectations Index was up 53.6 percent to 29.5 points. Looking back on the September quarter of 2016, businesses reported increased sales, profits, employment, selling prices and capital investment in Q compared to Q The Business Actuals Index for the September quarter was 11.0 points, up from 8.9 points in the June quarter and on par with 11.0 points in the September quarter of Only the Retail and Services sectors individual Business Actuals Indices for the September quarter fell compared to the June quarter: the Retail Business Actuals Index was 3.3 points, down from 7.3 points, while Services slipped from 11.1 points to 9.7 points. Are you generally more optimistic about business growth next year compared to 2016? Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Transport, Communication, Utilities Construction Retail Wholesale Manufacturers All firms % Yes No sure/don't Moving into the new year, businesses are generally upbeat about business growth: 63.4 percent of all firms surveyed said they were more optimistic about growing their business in 2017 compared to Some 24.8 percent were less optimistic and 11.9 percent were unsure. Manufacturers were the most upbeat, with 78.7 percent saying they were more optimistic, compared to 16.4 percent who were less optimistic. By comparison, the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industry had a more subdued outlook, with just 52.5 percent feeling optimistic about business growth in 2017 compared to 2016, compared to 39.0 percent who were not. Construction companies returned similar scores: 49.2 percent are more optimistic compared to 35.6 percent who are less optimistic. === Contacts: Bryony Duncan-Smith DuncanSmithB@dnb.com.au

5 The latest D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey shows: Expectations index for the March quarter 2017: The Employment Expectations Index has increased to 18.9 points, up from 13.0 points in the previous quarter and 12.0 points a year ago. The Sales Expectations Index was flat at 31.0 points, compared to 30.1 points in the previous quarter and down slightly from 32.7 points at the same time last year. Profit expectations for the March quarter surged to 28.7, up from 17.1 points in the previous quarter, and 18.5 a year ago. Plans for capital investment are up, with the index at 16.0 points compared to 7.9 points in the previous quarter and 12.6 points a year ago. The Selling Prices Expectations Index jumped from 9.3 points to 17.8 points, and up from 15.1 points at the same time last year. Issues expected to influence operations in the March quarter 2017: 63.4 percent of businesses are more optimistic about growth in the 2017 compared to 2016, while 24.8 percent are less optimistic and 11.9 percent are undecided. Consumer confidence (38.6 percent) is identified as the issue most likely to influence business operations in the next quarter, followed by cash flow (13.1 percent) and the level of the Australian dollar (8.7 percent) 16.3 percent of businesses see weak demand for their products and services as the biggest barrier to growth in the year ahead, while 15.1 percent see utilities and operating costs as the biggest barrier percent of businesses reported having a customer or supplier that became insolvent, or was otherwise unable to pay them in the past year percent of businesses would choose to miss payments to trade suppliers if unable to pay all their bills on time, followed by payments on a business credit card (24.0 percent) percent of businesses would prefer a higher Australian dollar and 10.4 percent a lower dollar, while 62.9 percent think that it doesn t matter. 6.1 percent are unsure percent of businesses intend to seek finance or new credit in the quarter ahead to help their business grow, while 74.3 percent will not, and 9.2 percent are undecided. Actual results reported for the September quarter 2016: Actual employment for the September quarter was up, with the index at 7.4 points compared to 4.6 points in the previous quarter and 5.5 points a year earlier. Sales activity increased, with the index moving up from 15.5 points to 17.5 points, but down from 19.1 points last year. The Actual Profits Index increased from 7.9 points to 10.0 points, up from 8.5 points at the same time last year. Capital investment activity was up at 9.3 points compared to 7.7 points in the June quarter, but down from 10.8 points in Q The Actual Selling Prices Index rose to 9.3 points compared to 6.6 points in the previous quarter, but down from 13.3 points in the September quarter of About Dun & Bradstreet Established in 1887, Dun & Bradstreet is Australia and New Zealand's longest established credit information bureau. Backed by its extensive financial database, D&B helps businesses to make informed credit decisions, and consumers to access personal credit information. D&B works across the entire credit lifecycle to deliver data-driven solutions in sales and marketing, credit reporting and debt management. Through analysis of financial and behavioural information, D&B also provides current and predictive assessments of the economy, business conditions and credit activity.

6 About the Business Expectations Survey Dun & Bradstreet s Business Expectations Survey is the only monthly survey to provide a comprehensive summary of key economic and financial conditions in Australia six months ahead of the latest quarterly national income accounts. The survey s unique forecasting ability supports Dun & Bradstreet s ongoing efforts to support business leaders, policy makers and commentators in responding to the changing dynamics of the Australian economy. Methodology Each month D&B asks a sample of executives if they expect an increase, decrease or no change in their quarterahead sales, profits, employees, capital investment and selling prices compared with the same quarter a year ago. The executives are also asked for actual changes over the twelve months to the latest completed quarter. In this issue, the preliminary indexes for the latest quarters are based on approximately 400 responses obtained during October Charts and tables It is common practice to present the results of business expectations surveys as indexes showing the net balance of the positive and negative responses. However, this method of aggregating responses loses relevant information about the relative proportions and rates of change of the two (positive and negative) groups. Accordingly, the detailed charts at the top of pages seven to 11 in the D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey show separately the positive and negative components of each of the various indexes. These charts help provide a better insight into the expectations and performance of Australian business than that shown by movements in the simple aggregation of the positive and negative responses. The aggregate net balance indexes are shown in the charts at the bottom of pages six to 10. About Dun & Bradstreet Established in 1887, Dun & Bradstreet is Australia and New Zealand's oldest credit information bureau. Backed by its extensive financial database, D&B helps businesses to make informed credit decisions, and consumers to access personal credit information. D&B works across the entire credit lifecycle to deliver data-driven solutions in sales and marketing, credit reporting and debt management. Through analysis of financial and behavioural information, D&B also provides current and predictive assessments of the economy, business conditions and credit activity.

7 Sales outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (31.0 points, up from 30.1) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The March quarter 2017 Sales Expectations Index is 31.0 points, up from 30.1 points in the previous quarter, but down from 32.7 points in the year prior. The index is now 14.5 points above its 10-year average of 16.5 points percent of businesses expect an increase in their sales for the March quarter of 2017, while 10.5 percent forecast a decrease, compared to the same time in Actual performance The Actual Sales Index for the second quarter of 2016 is 17.5 points, up from 15.5 points in the previous quarter, but down from 19.1 points a year earlier percent of firms reported increased sales in the September quarter and 18.7 percent had decreased sales compared to the previous year.

8 Profits outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (28.7 points, up from 17.1) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The outlook for profits in the March 2017 quarter is an index of 28.7 points, up from 17.1 points in the previous quarter and 18.5 points last year. The outlook for profits is 20.8 points above the 10-year average index of 7.9 points percent of businesses expect an increase in their profits during the quarter ahead, while 11.0 percent forecast a decrease, compared to last year. Actual performance The Actual Profits Index for the September 2016 quarter is 10.0 points, up from 7.9 points in the previous quarter and 8.5 points recorded a year earlier. During the September quarter, 26.7 percent of businesses increased their profits, while 16.7 percent experienced a decrease.

9 Employment outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (18.9 points, up from 13.0) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The employment outlook for the March quarter 2017 has increased to 18.9 points, up from 13.0 points in the previous quarter and 12.0 points a year earlier. The outlook for employment is 15.5 points above the 10- year average index of 3.4 points. Some 25.3 percent of executives expect to employ more staff in the March quarter 2017 compared to the March quarter 2016, while 6.4 percent expect to decrease their staff numbers. Actual performance The Actual Employment Index for the September 2016 quarter is 7.4 points, up from 4.6 points in the previous quarter and 5.5 points a year earlier. In the September quarter 2016, 20.8 percent of businesses hired new staff, compared to the 13.5 percent that reduced their employment levels.

10 Capital Investment outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (16.0 points, up from 7.9) The positive and negative components of the D&B indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The capital investment outlook for the March quarter 2017 is 16.0 points, up from 7.9 in the previous quarter and 12.6 points last year. The outlook for capital investment is 9.1 points above the 10-year average index of 6.9 points. While 21.5 percent of businesses expect an increase in their investment level, 5.5 percent forecast a decrease in Q compared with a year earlier. Actual performance For the September quarter 2016, the actual index for investment is 9.3 points, up from 7.7 points in the previous quarter but down from 10.8 points a year ago. Some 16.8 percent of firms increased their capital investment in Q3, while 7.5 percent decreased capital spending.

11 Selling Prices outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (17.8 points, up from 9.3) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The Selling Prices Expectations Index for the March quarter 2017 is 17.8 points, up from 9.3 points in the previous quarter and 15.1 points a year earlier. The outlook for selling prices is 8.2 points lower than the 10-year average of 26.0 points. The proportion of firms expecting to have higher selling prices in the quarter ahead is 23.8 percent, with 6.0 percent expecting to have lower prices compared to a year earlier. Actual performance At 9.3 points, the Actual Selling Prices Index for the September 2016 quarter is up from 6.6 points in the previous quarter but down from 13.3 points last year percent of businesses increased their selling prices, while 9.7 percent had decreased, compared to the same time the previous year.

12 D&B Survey Quarterly Indexes Expected Quarter Ahead: Net percent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Sales Profits Employees Capital Investment Selling Prices Actual Quarter Behind: Net percent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Dec 2014 Mar 2015 June 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Sales Profits Employees Capital Investment Selling Prices Survey Months Apr- Jun 2015 Jul Sep 2015 Oct Dec 2015 Jan Mar 2016 Apr Jun 2016 Jul Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Number of Responses Quarterly Indexes: Each batch of monthly responses is given an equal weight in the calculation of the new quarterly indexes. Preliminary indexes: Q (Expected) and Q (Actual) findings are based on the 412 responses obtained during October 2016.

13 Expected Quarter Ahead: Net percent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Sales Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication,Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries Profits Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication,Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries Employees Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication, Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries

14 Expected Quarter Ahead: Net percent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Capital Investment Expectations Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Selling Prices Expectations Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

15 Actual Quarter Behind: Net percent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Sales Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Profits Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Employees Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

16 Actual Quarter Behind: Net percent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Capital Investment Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Selling Prices Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

17 D&B Supplementary Questions Thinking about the quarter ahead, which issue do you think will influence the operations of your business the most? (October 2016) Interest rates Wages & salary growth Level of Australian dollar Access to credit Fuel Cash Consumer prices flow confidence All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % Don t (September 2016) Interest rates Wages & salary growth Level of Australian dollar Access to credit Fuel Cash Consumer prices flow confidence All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % Don t (August 2016) Wages & Level of Access Don t Interest Fuel Cash Consumer salary Australian to credit rates prices flow confidence growth dollar All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

18 Thinking about your business for the quarter ahead, are you likely to seek finance or credit to help your business grow? (October 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

19 What do you see as the biggest barrier to growing your business in the year ahead? (October 2016) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

20 Would your business benefit if the Australian dollar was higher or lower than its current level? (October 2016) Higher Lower Doesn t matter sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Higher Lower Doesn t matter sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Higher Lower Doesn t matter sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

21 In the past 12 months, have any of your customers or suppliers become insolvent or otherwise unable to pay you? (October 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

22 Are you generally more optimistic about business growth next year compared to 2016? (October 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

23 If you find yourself unable to pay all of your bills, which of the following would you choose to pay late/miss? (October 2016) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (September 2016) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (August 2016) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %