Consumer Confidence Tracker

Transcription

1 Consumer Confidence Tracker January 2019 Prepared by Anita Mullan J

2 Introduction 2

3 Introduction This report presents the findings of the first phase of the B&A s Consumer Confidence Tracker in Survey results are based on a sample of 1,000 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland. All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face CAPI omnibus service by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines. Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 15 th 25 th January

4 About B&A B&A is Ireland s largest and most experienced independently owned research company. We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland. Established over 30 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative. Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities. For more information please visit our website at: or contact us on Marketing Society Research Excellence Awards 22 time award winners. 4

5 Key highlights 5

6 Uncertain times: Consumer Confidence declines in Qtr 1 19 As we start 2019 the macro economy continues to trade positively but the ordinary consumer is concerned, particularly those living outside Dublin. Overall, the average B&A consumer confidence level for 2018 (+22%) was relatively consistent with the 2017 (+26%) average, but the first survey of the year indicates a sharp decline in consumer optimism (+2%). Looking specifically at Qtr consumer confidence levels, consumers living outside Dublin are least optimistic towards the economy, particularly those living in Connaught and Ulster regions. The most obvious factor fuelling this sense of caution is Brexit and uncertainty around its implications. This is especially prevalent for those living in the northern part of the country who will be most exposed to its consequences. With regards to financial stability, 37% claim to be living comfortably, while 49% are getting by financially. Some 14% calm to be struggling to make ends meet, which equates to half a million people (mainly In the age bracket and blue collar segments). Also while 44% agree they have benefitted from the economic recovery, a sizable proportion (one third) feel they have not (more blue collar and outside Dublin). The increased cost of goods and services is also being noticed widely across the population and, as Brexit looms, consumer caution towards spending has heightened. Thus, the economy is not without its challenges. 6

7 Macro context 7

8 GDP and GNP continue an upward trend GDP Vs GNP ,088 75,694 76,269 78,20078,476 72,467 72,253 70,400 GDP 66,416 66,542 67,678 GNP 64,646 68,278 65,818 63,877 66,603 63,140 61,191 61,935 57,295 50,606 52,174 52,526 52,138 52,202 53,640 55,247 59,065 59,578 55,471 55,167 47,735 49,164 48,746 53,118 49,331 52,197 46,810 44,764 42,747 41,754 46,406 38,939 42,383 43,176 39, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 *GDP and GNP data correct as of February 2019 Source: Quarterly National Accounts * Q results not yet available 8

9 Employment levels are positive 2,400,000 Total labour force in Ireland 2,300,000 2,273,200 2,200,000 2,220,500 2,206,800 2,255,000 2,231,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,845,600 1,983,000 1,976,500 1,926,900 1,929,500 1,983,000 1,899,300 1,888,200 1,958,000 1,938,900 1,909,800 1,901,600 1,869,900 2,040,500 2,045,100 2,048,100 2,063,000 2,014,900 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 *Source: Labour Force survey Q data not yet available 9

10 Live register numbers return to prerecession levels Live Register Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Feb '08 Sept '08 Feb '09 Sep '09 Feb '10 Sep '10 Feb '11 Sep '11 Feb '12 Sep '12 Feb '13 Sep '13 Feb '14 Sep '14 Feb '15 Sep '15 Feb '16 Sep '16 Feb '17 Sep '17 Feb '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 * The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal & casual workers who work up to 3 days per week Source: on live register 10

11 Annual employment and live register levels are positive as we enter 2019 The Live Register -15.9% Overall Change vs. January 2018 % Unemployment in Ireland Rate of unemployment 20 86, % vs. January , % vs. January Current Rate of unemployment (vs. 6.0% in January 2018) 5.3% -0.7% Vs Jan 2018 Source: on live register * Live Register Total data Source: National Household survey 11

12 Imports vs Exports m (seasonally adjusted) Exports Imports ,767 7,749 7,446 9,377 10,392 9,743 12,479 10,376 11,750 11,887 7,909 11,428 11,654 8,383 11, ,439 7,798 4,678 4,654 5,196 5,847 5,800 6,524 6,895 6,302 6,620 7,754 7, Exports have remained relatively steady, while import levels fall back slightly Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Long term Short term 12

13 Retail Sales Index (Excluding Motor) Volume Value Volume to value gap remaining consistent Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Long term Short term 13 *Q3 not yet available

14 General government surplus/deficit remains similar to 2017 levels Q Q Q Q Source: *Qtr results not yet available 14

15 Consumer Confidence Findings 15

16 Consumers are extremely cautious as we enter 2019 The average consumer confidence level for 2018 is relatively consistent with the 2017 average. As we enter 2019 however, and with Brexit looming, consumers are concerned, particularly those outside Dublin. (Net Diff: Positive-Negative) Looking forward Dublin +11 Outside Dublin -1 Looking Back vs. Looking Forward Govt uncertainty following General Election Brexit vote Consumer Confidence Average +26% Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr July Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb April July Sept Nov Apr Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jul Sep Nov Jan Consumer Confidence Average +22% Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report

17 All consumers are showing decreased optimism However, consumers living outside Dublin are least optimistic towards the economy. Base: All Adults 16+ Consumer confidence has declined across all demographics. Males, 16-34s and ABC1s continue to be the most confident cohorts, while the 55+ age group and farmers are significantly less confident Total Male Female ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Outside Dublin Irish Non Irish NET Diff Nov 18 24% 28% 20% 38% 21% 13% 31% 19% 16% 28% 22% 22% 37% NET Diff Sept 18 17% 22% 13% 26% 18% 7% 27% 11% 3% 17% 17% 16% 27% NET Diff July 18 27% 30% 25% 41% 22% 11% 37% 22% 11% 31% 26% 25% 41% NET Diff May 18 30% 31% 29% 40% 37% 12% 43% 20% 32% 41% 26% 29% 40% NET Diff Feb 18 28% 30% 27% 35% 29% 22% 38% 21% 27% 31% 28% 29% 28% NET Diff Nov 17 24% 24% 25% 28% 25% 19% 38% 12% 31% 29% 22% 23% 32% NET Diff Sept 17 25% 27% 22% 29% 28% 16% 32% 18% 26% 36% 20% 25% 23% 17 Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

18 Less positivity exists for the global economy overall Base: All adults 16+ 1,000 Do you feel the global economy will be better, worse or the same in the next 12 months? Total AGE Total Better off Worse off Same Net diff Better off The same Worse off Net diff CLASS REGION ABC1 Better off Same Worse off Net diff -4 Dublin Better off Same Worse off Net diff = C2DE Outside Dublin F Leinster Munster Conn/Ulster Q.12 Do you feel the global economy will be better, worse or the same over the next 12 months?

19 Consumer confidence in the economy for the year ahead has returned to 2014 levels and is lowest in Conn/Ulster Base: All Adults 16+ Jan 19 % Looking forward Dublin +11 Outside Dublin -1 Better off The same Worse off Conn/ Ulster - 15% Munster: +10% RoL: -3% Dublin: +11% Consumer confidence is strongest in Dublin and Munster regions. Conn/Ulster shows significantly lower levels of confidence as the region braces itself for Brexit. *Net Diff (GAP) +2% Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Gap -15% -59% -68% -49% -58% -52% -32% +3% +15% +18% +26% +22% +28% +30% +27% +17% +24% +2% 19 Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

20 Brexit is a major concern for all, especially consumers living in Conn/Ulster Base: All adults Worry about impact on Irish Economy Worry about Personal Impact Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree strongly 20% 11% 6% Agree % equates to 64% 36% Agree Strongly 27% Agree Consumer Confidence among those who worry about Brexit impact on Irish economy = -3% Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 23% Disagree strongly 12% 8% Agree % equates to 58% 21% 36% Agree Strongly Agree Consumer Confidence among those who worry about Brexit impact on personal finances = -3% Strongly agree/disagree x Regions Dublin 57% Rest Leinster 68% Munster 60% Conn/Ulster 75% Strongly agree/disagree x Regions Dublin 55% Rest Leinster 55% Munster 56% Conn/Ulster 66% 20 Q.14 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? I am worried about the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy and I am worried about the impact of Brexit on my personal finances?

21 Overall positivity towards the value of personal assets has experienced a slight decline but remains positive Base: All Adults 16+ Jan 19 % Higher 27 The same 67 Outside Dublin: +17% Dublin: +28% Both those living in Dublin and outside Dublin remain positive towards the values of personal assets but caution is evident. Lower 6 *Net Diff (GAP) +20% Feb 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Gap +20% -25% -53% -43% -41% -31% -18% -1% +14%+15%+26%+25%+26% +26% +24%+24%+24%+20% 21 Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

22 Attitudes towards future savings are consistent with 2018 averages as we enter 2019 Base: All Adults 16+ Jan 19 % More 16 The same 66 Outside Dublin: -7% Dublin: +12% Similarly to 2018 averages, those living outside Dublin are least optimistic towards future savings. Lower 18 *Net Diff (GAP) -2% Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sept 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Gap -5% -34% -56% -48% -50% -48% -40% -24% -13% -5% -1% = +1 = = -7% +5% -2% 22 Q8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?

23 Consumer levels of caution towards spending have heightened Base: All Adults 16+ Jan 19 % More 14 The same 68 Dublin: +4% Those living outside Dublin are least positive towards future spending Less 17 Outside Dublin: -6% *Net Diff (GAP) -3% Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sept 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Gap +5% -29% -63% -47% -52% -45% -37% -19% -13% -4% = +2% +1% +3% +3% -3% +5% -3% 23 Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?

24 Half a million of the population are struggling to make ends meet Base: All adults % Struggling financially to make ends meet = equates to half a million people ( more in the 35-54, blue collar cohorts) 49% Getting by financially 37% Living Comfortably financially 24 Q.13 Which best describes your household?

25 3 in 4 are noticing increases in the cost of good and services Base: All adults 16+ 1,000 I am noticing the increases in the costs of goods and services (i.e. the cost of living) Agree strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Disagree strongly Total Region Dublin Outside Dublin Lein-ster Mun-ster Conn/Ulster Agree strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Disagree strongly Total Social Class ABC1 C2DE F 1000 % % % % Agree strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Disagree strongly Total Age % % % % % % Q.14 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following... Increases noticed across the board.

26 Also a sizeable proportion do not feel they have benefited from the economic recovery (one third) Base: All adults I have benefitted from the economic recovery Total Social Class Agree 44% Disagree 32% ABC1 C2DE F Agree strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly disagree Regional Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Age % % % % % Agree strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Disagree strongly Dublin Outside Leinster Munster Conn/ Urban Rural Dublin Ulster % % % % % % % Q.14 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following...

27 Disposable Income 1 in 5 feel they have less money in their pockets compared to this time last year Base: All adults 16+ 1,000 Do you have more, less or the same amount of money in your pockets (i.e. disposable income) compared to this time last year? GENDER Total AGE Total More Same Less Net diff -10 Male More Same Less Net diff More Same Less Net diff +7-5 Female CLASS REGION ABC1 C2DE F More Same Less Net diff Dublin Outside Leinster Munster More Same Less Net diff Conn/Ulster Those living in Dublin and under 25s are the only age cohort that disposable income has increased. 27 Q.11 Do you feel that you have more, less or the same amount of money in your pockets (i.e. disposable income) compared to this time last year?

28 Perceived disposable income has decreased Base: All Adults 18+ Long Term Short Term Dublin Outside Dublin ABC C2DE Feb '18 May '18 July '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Jan '19 28 Q.10 About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?

29 Thank you. Milltown House Mount Saint Annes Milltown, Dublin 6 - D06 Y