South Region Committee Brexit and the Associated Challenges
|
|
- Claud Davis
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 South Region Committee Brexit and the Associated Challenges event in Tralee with Jim Power Tralee, 17 October 2017
2 Brexit and the Associated Challenges The Institute of Banking, Tralee October 17 th 2017 Jim Power
3 To Be Discussed Global backdrop Global Risks Update on Irish Economy Brexit
4 GLOBAL BACKDROP Global growth cycle on upward path US growth reasonable; inflation moderate UK held up well post-brexit > sterling weakness has helped exports, but consumer & business investment coming under some strain Euro Zone growth recovery becoming more compelling Chinese growth has stabilised US interest rates up from 0% in December 2015 to % range > moderate increases from here UK rate cycle about to turn ECB rates 0%, rate cycle could turn in 2018/19 Global growth story reasonably compelling
5 US GDP (YoY) (%)
6 UK GDP (YoY) (%)
7 Euro Zone GDP (YoY) (%)
8 Global Growth Forecast (IMF JULY 17) f 2018f World Output +3.2% +3.5% +3.6% Advanced +1.7% +2.0% +1.9% US +1.6% +2.1% +2.1% Euro Zone +1.8% +1.9% +1.7% -Germany +1.8% +1.8% +1.6% -France +1.2% +1.5% +1.7% UK +1.8% +1.7% +1.5% Japan +1.0% +1.3% +0.6% Emerging +4.3% +4.6% +4.8% China +6.7% +6.7% +6.4% India +7.1% +7.2% +7.7%
9 The Global Risks Rejection of Conventional Politics in 2016 Politics Netherlands & France OK; Germany Sept 24 th OK; Italy May 2018 cause for concern Migration causing dangerous tensions in EU particularly Global Terrorism Trump and Growth of protectionism Brexit Equity markets have come a very long way China financial imbalances Global monetary policy turning
10 Ireland So Far in 2017 H1 GDP +5.5%: GNP +2.6% Consumption +1.7%: Investment +3.1%: Exports +3.2%: Imports -1.9% Car Sales (Jan-Sep) -10.2% Merchandise Exports (Jan-Jul) +6.7%: UK +12.6% Tax Revenues +5% (Jan-Sep) Consumer Confidence at 18 Month High Solid Recovery Continues but some consumer caution
11 The Irish Economy Today Economy in strong statistical recovery Significant domestic challenges Housing, Public Services, Pay Pressures & Pensions Brexit key challenge on many fronts Trump tax policies Broader tax agendas more worrying Ireland needs to be managed in prudent, sensible manner Competitiveness broadly defined key priority
12 Assumptions Budget f 2018f 2019f 2020f GDP 4.3% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 3.5% GNP 0.0% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% Consumption 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% Investment -3.7% 6.1% 5.6% 4.2% 3.1% Government 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% Exports 3.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.2% Imports % 4.9% 4.4% 3.5% Employment 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% Unemployment 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.8%
13 Unemployment (% Labour Force) Jan-98 Jun-98 Nov-98 Apr-99 Sep-99 Feb-00 Jul-00 Dec-00 May-01 Oct-01 Mar-02 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 (%)
14 Employment 2, , , , (000s) 1, , , ,
15 Ireland-Employment Q SECTOR EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL CHANGE Agriculture F&F 110,100-6,300 Industry 260,100 +5,100 Construction 147, ,500 Wholesale & Retail Trade 278,400 +4,300 Transportation & Storage 95,900 +1,000 Accommodation & Food Serv 151,900 +6,100 Information & Communication 92,500 +7,800 Financial, Insurance & Real Estate 100,200-1,500 Professional & Scientific 119,600 +4,600 Administrative & Support Serv 74,000 +3,900 Public Admin & Defence 105, Education 156,900 +6,000 Health & Social Services 259,800 +8,700 Other 104,600-1,900 Not Stated 6, Total 2,063, ,100 (+2.4%)
16 Irish House Prices (Jan 05=100) Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 National - all residential properties National excluding Dublin - all residential properties Dublin - all residential properties
17 Irish Private Rents Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 (JAN 20045=100)
18 Trends in Irish Taxation Expenditure Taxes f 2018f 19.3 bln 18.4 bln 19.5 bln 20.3 bln % Tax Take 42.4% 38.5% 38.5% 38.2% Income Tax 12.4 bln 19.1 bln 20.2 bln bln % Tax Take 27.2% 40.0% 39.9% 40.0% Corporation Tax 6.7 bln 7.4 bln 7.97bln 8.50 bln % Tax Take 14.7% 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% Capital Taxes 3.5 bln 1.2 bln 1.2 bln 1.31 bln % Tax Take 7.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% Total Tax Take ( bln) 45.5 bln 47.9bln 50.6 bln bln
19 BREXIT 2 ISSUES Currency movements Pre-Brexit Trading relationship Post-Brexit
20 GBP v Euro /1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017
21 Brexit Article 50 invoked by UK March 29 th 2017 EU-27 response April 29th many conflicting aspirations March 29 th 2019 the deadline UK stance complicated by domestic politics election result has not helped Divorce settlement will be very difficult 4 EU Pillars the big issue Terms of divorce will drive trade negotiations Hard Brexit the obvious risk 44% of UK exports to EU & 19% to US
22 UK Position Brexit talks have stalled Partnership and Creative Solutions 3 possibilities > Norway (European Economic Area), Canada ( Free Trade Deal) & Turkey (Customs Union Arrangements)> UK has effectively ruled out all three 2 year transition period Sudden EU crash exit or compromise?
23 Brexit & Ireland Sterling impact to date post-brexit trading relationship the bigger issue Broad & significant sectoral implications Trade exposure very strong > 37% Food & Drink exports; 70% Prepared Consumer Food exports go to UK Border Issue very problematical Opportunities as UK companies move to EU base particularly financial services Can Ireland accommodate influx of investment? Housing an issue regional opportunities
24 Brexit and Ireland No certainty as to how the process will evolve Ireland has the biggest issues of the EU-27 Every sector will be affected to varying degrees Legal, logistical and real economic implications WTO trade conditions would have profound implications for trade
25 The Agri-Food Sector Contribution to GDP 7.6% 8.6% total employment > 173, % of Merchandise Exports Food & Beverage sector accounts for 21% of All Industry Turnover; 22% of all Industry Gross output The most important indigenous sector
26 Consumer Food Prices (Jan 05=100) Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 CPI Food Beef & Veal Poultry
27 Foodwise 2025 Published July 2015 targeting quality conscious consumer sustainable production & high quality Local Roots, Global Reach 85% increase in exports to 19 bln 70% increase in value added to 13 bln 60% increase in primary production to 10 bln 23,000 additional jobs along supply chain Brexit will make these targets very challenging
28 Agri-Food Trade UK(2016) TOTAL ( 000s) EXPORTS 4.8 bln IMPORTS 3.7 bln Beef 1,113,448 98,616 Dairy 857, ,177 Pigmeat 408, ,072 Cereals 339, ,748 Beverages 301, ,362 Live Animals 259, ,920 Fruit & Veg 239, ,003 Poultry 217, ,315 Animal Foodstuffs 211, ,782 Forestry 176,544 53,149 Fish 64, ,592 Sheepmeat 52,027 17,980 Other Meat & Meat Produce 46,949 19,569 Other 517, ,698
29 Brexit Issues for Agri Sector Disproportionate exposure to UK market Exports very vulnerable Potential for import substitution Sterling is the immediate issue Trading relationship the longer-term issue Strong brand very important Diversification the only real strategy but very challenging
30 Overseas Visitors to Ireland 2016 H1 2017H1 % CHANGE Great Britain 1,865 1, % France % Germany % Italy Other Europe % North America % Australia/NZ % Other % Total 4,384 4, %
31 What can Irish Companies do? Plan on basis of Hard-Brexit All UK exposures need to be identified Logistical issues need to be identified Remedies put in place Trade diversification easier said than done Import substitution Post-Brexit Physical presence in UK market?
32 ANY QUESTIONS?
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationUK Economic Outlook March 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects Consumer spending prospects after Brexit Will robots steal our jobs? 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationOur most important trading relationship UK is our largest trading partner North / South; East / West
Our most important trading relationship UK is our largest trading partner North / South; East / West 41% of our food and drink export ( 4.4bn) 70% of prepared consumer foods 56% of total meat exports 30%
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationThe Economic Context for Budget 2019
The Economic Context for Budget 219 1 October 218 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB Steady global growth forecast but GDP (Vol Change) 217 218(f) 219(f) 22(f) World 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Advanced Economies 2.3
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationPower of Travel Promotion Evolution
Power of Travel Promotion Evolution Promotion More Important than Ever Power of Promotion $7 million Median state = marketing budget FY 2014-15 OR 45 seconds worth of Super Bowl ads $100 million = Presidential
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationNon-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017)
Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017) Gillian Phelan Outline Monetary policy action Interest rate policy Non-standard measures Monetary policy
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationChapter 1 International economy
Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment
More informationCan we make it in Waterford? South-East Business Forum
Can we make it in Waterford? South-East Business Forum Jim Power March 11th 2014 WHERE ARE WE TODAY AT A NATIONAL LEVEL? % ECONOMIC GROWTH PROFILE 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 GDP GNP IRISH ECONOMY IN 2013 Economy
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More information10% THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF A 1% VAT INCREASE FOR THE RESTAURANT SECTOR
THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF A 1% VAT INCREASE FOR THE RESTAURANT SECTOR 10% THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF A 1% VAT INCREASE FOR THE RESTAURANT SECTOR A REPORT PREPARED FOR THE RESTAURANTS ASSOCIATION
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER Statistical tables
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER 2005 APPENDIX Appendix Statistical tables The world economy Table a1 GDP at constant prices a2 Industrial production a3 Consumer prices a4 External current account
More informationAn economic update Craig Botham, Economist May 2017
An economic update Craig Botham, Economist May 2017 2016 image of the year Donald and Nigel at Trump towers Source: Splashnews.com. 1 Key issues UK: the election, Brexit and beyond Europe: out of the woods?
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationIntroduction to the UK Economy
Introduction to the UK Economy What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More information2015: A rosy outlook. Vlad Muscalu Chief Economist
215: A rosy outlook Vlad Muscalu Chief Economist GDP forecasting a funny rollercoaster Talking about GDP Y = C + I + G + X - M GDP = Private Consumption + Investment + +Government Consumption + Exports
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2015
April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
More informationAnnual Report Statistical Appendix. Rome, 31 May nd. Financial Year nd financial year
Annual Report Rome, 31 May 2016 2015 122 nd financial year Financial Year 122 nd Annual Report 2015 122 nd Financial Year Rome, 31 May 2016 Banca d Italia, 2016 Address Via Nazionale, 91 00184 Rome - Italy
More informationSUMMARY OF SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SUMMARY OF SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS RECENT DATA GRAPHS HISTORICAL DATA GRAPHS P.E.I. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX P.E.I. LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS CANADA/P.E.I. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, INCOME-BASED CANADA /
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationBrit-in or Brexit : Hedging in Times of Geopolitical Uncertainty
WWW.WISDOMTREE.COM + () 8 6 Brit-in or Brexit : Hedging in Times of Geopolitical Uncertainty Disclaimer This document is issued by WisdomTree Europe Ltd ( WTE ) an appointed representative of Mirabella
More informationProgress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction)
Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis ( = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction) 13 125 196-26 AE Recessions' Range*** 196-26 AE Recessions**
More informationRecent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico
Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017
More informationIreland Outlook. Economy powering on. February Economic Research Unit
Ireland Outlook February 218 Economy powering on Momentum in the Irish economy remains strong, with activity in the first three quarters of 217 ahead of expectations and high frequency data indicating
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationMonthly Labour Force Survey Statistics December 2018
800 Monthly Labour Force Survey Statistics CALGARY CMA Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally
More informationMonthly Labour Force Survey Statistics November 2018
800 Monthly Labour Force Survey Statistics CALGARY CMA Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationShort-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
More informationLatest economic developments in Greece and Challenges for the Trade Finance Market
Latest economic developments in Greece and Challenges for the Trade Finance Market Peter Sanfey Deputy Director, Country Economics and Policy, EBRD 15 September 216, Bank of Greece, Athens The Greek economy:
More informationWhat is Monetary Policy?
What is Monetary Policy? Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationReserve Bank of Fiji 24 January FIJI ECONOMY - Recent Economic Developments
Reserve Bank of Fiji 24 January 217 FIJI ECONOMY - Recent Economic Developments Developments in the International Economy that would impact on Fiji s Economy? Global growth/us/china Trading partner performances
More informationQuarterly Report. July September 2014
July September November 19, Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 4 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Monetary Policy Conduction By constitutional
More informationThe Irish Economic Update Continuing Robust Growth But Risks Remain
The Irish Economic Update Continuing Robust Growth But Risks Remain April 216 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 213 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy
More informationChina Economic Update Q1 2015
Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail
More information1Q of FY ending December 31, (0.2) (1.9) 11.3 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (1.2) (89.2) 0.1
August 6, ISEKI & CO., LTD. Supplementary Information to Consolidated Financial Results (April 1, June 30, ) I. Consolidated business results for the three months ended June 30, (Billions of yen, %) Year-on
More informationBrexit s impact on Lithuanian exports. Export Club: Brexit April 26, Vilnius Thomas Notten Senior analyst Enterprise Lithuania
Brexit s impact on Lithuanian exports Export Club: Brexit April 26, Vilnius Thomas Notten Senior analyst Enterprise Lithuania Content Brexit timeline Possible future trade regimes Incentives for a trade
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationQuarterly Report for the Greek Economy
Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 3-2016 October 11 th, 2016 This presentation is supported by Various developments in the current period Positive developments: international tourism, low energy prices,
More informationPerformance Report October 2018
Structured Investments Indicative Report October 2018 This report illustrates the indicative performance of all Structured Investment Strategies from inception to 31 October 2018 Matured Investment Strategies
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationSnapshot of SA Economy
Snapshot of SA Economy Kgotso Radira 1 September 29 Economic Outlook Global share indices 2 Indices 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 25 26 27 28 29 S&P 5 FTSE 1 DAX Nikkei 3 Global interest rates 7 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1999
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2016
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2016 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationIrish economy: Outlook
Irish economy: Outlook 2018-2020 Terry Quinn and Thomas Conefrey (IEA), Civic Society Roundtable, November 30 th 2018 Terry Quinn Irish Economic Analysis Division Overview Economy continues to expand at
More informationGIMA Pulse Date of Report: 04/12/2017 a monthly snapshot of the UK Economy from
GIMA Pulse Date of Report: 04/12/2017 a monthly snapshot of the UK Economy from www.barometeroftrade.com Summary Inflation has slowed after reaching a 5-year-high last month, largely due to the weak performance
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationRBK & AIB Backing the Midlands Corporate Sector. Welcome & Introduction
RBK & AIB Backing the Midlands Corporate Sector Welcome & Introduction Gerard Corcoran Head of AIB Meath, Westmeath & Longford Retail & Business Banking T: (046) 903 7850 E: Gerard.j.Corcoran@aib.ie Dermot
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationCentral Bank of Seychelles
Central Bank of Seychelles Monetary Policy Decision Media Presentation June 28, 2018 Monetary Policy Stance for the Third quarter of 2018 Recommendations Maintain Tight monetary policy stance for the third
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationThe Irish Economic Update
The Irish Economic Update Growth Slowing as BrexitLooms 1 December 216 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB Strong recovery by Irish economy since 213 Irish economy boomed from 1993 to 27 with GDP up by over
More informationDKM/IBF SME Market Monitor Q th November 2013
DKM/IBF SME Market Monitor Q3 2013 14 th November 2013 Food Accommodation Construction Retail Cashflow Collateral Finance Investment Employment Sentiment Spending Turnover Prepared for the Irish Banking
More informationWeekly Statistical Bulletin
1 / Central Bank of Kenya Statistical Bulletin Weekly Statistical Bulletin Key Monetary and Financial Indicators January 22, 2018 September 28, 2018 Inflation Overall inflation rose to 5.7 percent in September
More informationDanske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q4 2013
Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q4 2013 Published in January 2014 1 Contents Summary Statistics Table 2 Summary of latest quarter and economic outlook: 3 Global. United Kingdom. Northern Ireland.
More informationU.S. Steel Market Outlook. Amy Ebben ArcelorMittal USA November 30, 2018
U.S. Steel Market Outlook Amy Ebben ArcelorMittal USA November 30, 2018 Agenda ArcelorMittal introduction U.S. steel industry performance and trade Global steel industry Review of steel markets 1 About
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast October 6, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationQuarterly Statistical Digest
Quarterly Statistical Digest August Volume 27, No. 3 The Statistical Digest is a quarterly publication of the Central Bank of The Bahamas, prepared by the Research Department for issue in February, May,
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2014
April June August 1, 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks Monetary Policy Conduction Monetary policy has focused
More informationQuarterly report Global and Spanish economy Q Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 2017
Quarterly report Global and Spanish economy Q1-217 Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 217 217 GDP forecast Global USA 1.6 2.3 216 217 Russia -.2 1.4 216 217 3.1 3.5 1.6 1.7 217 GDP distribution Advanced
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 17, 2011 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union 2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian
More informationEconomic and housing outlook for New South Wales. Warwick Temby, Acting Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Sydney, August 2017
Economic and housing outlook for New South Wales Warwick Temby, Acting Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Sydney, August 2017 Risks to residential building moving from global to local World
More informationSpanish economic outlook. June 2017
Spanish economic outlook June 2017 1 2 3 Spanish economy a pleasant surprise Growth drivers Forecasts once again bright One of the most dynamic economies in Europe Spain growing at a faster rate than EMU
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationConsumer Price Index March 2001
12 April 2001 Consumer Price Index - all items Annual Percentage Change % 8.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 Consumer Price Index March 2001 All Items CPI Index % monthly % annual (Nov 96 = 100) change change Nov 113.3 +
More informationThe Irish Economic Update
The Irish Economic Update Growth Slowing as Brexit Looms November 216 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB Strong recovery by Irish economy Irish economy boomed from 1993 to 27 with GDP up by over 25% Celtic
More informationState of the Turkish Economy. Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October
State of the Turkish Economy Emre Deliveli TOBB ETU, October 11 2005 State of the Turkish Economy Slide 2 Agenda Overview of the Turkish economy Risks and priorities New anchor: EU What are the policy
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationOther similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets
Session 15. Understanding Macroeconomic Crises. Mexican Crisis 1994-95 Other similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets Global Scenarios 2017-2021 The Mexican Peso Crisis in 1994: Background An economy that
More informationOtaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank
Otaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank The 11th International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development April 6-8, 2010 Moscow
More informationIrish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors -
Irish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors - -------------------------------- Published August 2013 0 Contents 1. Executive Summary - January to June
More informationSchwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2016/17 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade
Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft /7 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade Christian Ragacs, Klaus Vondra Abteilung für volkswirtschaftliche Analysen, OeNB
More informationThe decision to leave the EU: economic consequences for the UK
The decision to leave the EU: economic consequences for the UK 5 th December 2016 Simon Kirby (NIESR), London and ESRC Centre for Macroeconomics Outline of the talk The outcome of the vote Brexit means
More information