South Region Committee Brexit and the Associated Challenges

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1 South Region Committee Brexit and the Associated Challenges event in Tralee with Jim Power Tralee, 17 October 2017

2 Brexit and the Associated Challenges The Institute of Banking, Tralee October 17 th 2017 Jim Power

3 To Be Discussed Global backdrop Global Risks Update on Irish Economy Brexit

4 GLOBAL BACKDROP Global growth cycle on upward path US growth reasonable; inflation moderate UK held up well post-brexit > sterling weakness has helped exports, but consumer & business investment coming under some strain Euro Zone growth recovery becoming more compelling Chinese growth has stabilised US interest rates up from 0% in December 2015 to % range > moderate increases from here UK rate cycle about to turn ECB rates 0%, rate cycle could turn in 2018/19 Global growth story reasonably compelling

5 US GDP (YoY) (%)

6 UK GDP (YoY) (%)

7 Euro Zone GDP (YoY) (%)

8 Global Growth Forecast (IMF JULY 17) f 2018f World Output +3.2% +3.5% +3.6% Advanced +1.7% +2.0% +1.9% US +1.6% +2.1% +2.1% Euro Zone +1.8% +1.9% +1.7% -Germany +1.8% +1.8% +1.6% -France +1.2% +1.5% +1.7% UK +1.8% +1.7% +1.5% Japan +1.0% +1.3% +0.6% Emerging +4.3% +4.6% +4.8% China +6.7% +6.7% +6.4% India +7.1% +7.2% +7.7%

9 The Global Risks Rejection of Conventional Politics in 2016 Politics Netherlands & France OK; Germany Sept 24 th OK; Italy May 2018 cause for concern Migration causing dangerous tensions in EU particularly Global Terrorism Trump and Growth of protectionism Brexit Equity markets have come a very long way China financial imbalances Global monetary policy turning

10 Ireland So Far in 2017 H1 GDP +5.5%: GNP +2.6% Consumption +1.7%: Investment +3.1%: Exports +3.2%: Imports -1.9% Car Sales (Jan-Sep) -10.2% Merchandise Exports (Jan-Jul) +6.7%: UK +12.6% Tax Revenues +5% (Jan-Sep) Consumer Confidence at 18 Month High Solid Recovery Continues but some consumer caution

11 The Irish Economy Today Economy in strong statistical recovery Significant domestic challenges Housing, Public Services, Pay Pressures & Pensions Brexit key challenge on many fronts Trump tax policies Broader tax agendas more worrying Ireland needs to be managed in prudent, sensible manner Competitiveness broadly defined key priority

12 Assumptions Budget f 2018f 2019f 2020f GDP 4.3% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 3.5% GNP 0.0% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% Consumption 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% Investment -3.7% 6.1% 5.6% 4.2% 3.1% Government 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% Exports 3.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.2% Imports % 4.9% 4.4% 3.5% Employment 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% Unemployment 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.8%

13 Unemployment (% Labour Force) Jan-98 Jun-98 Nov-98 Apr-99 Sep-99 Feb-00 Jul-00 Dec-00 May-01 Oct-01 Mar-02 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 (%)

14 Employment 2, , , , (000s) 1, , , ,

15 Ireland-Employment Q SECTOR EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL CHANGE Agriculture F&F 110,100-6,300 Industry 260,100 +5,100 Construction 147, ,500 Wholesale & Retail Trade 278,400 +4,300 Transportation & Storage 95,900 +1,000 Accommodation & Food Serv 151,900 +6,100 Information & Communication 92,500 +7,800 Financial, Insurance & Real Estate 100,200-1,500 Professional & Scientific 119,600 +4,600 Administrative & Support Serv 74,000 +3,900 Public Admin & Defence 105, Education 156,900 +6,000 Health & Social Services 259,800 +8,700 Other 104,600-1,900 Not Stated 6, Total 2,063, ,100 (+2.4%)

16 Irish House Prices (Jan 05=100) Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 National - all residential properties National excluding Dublin - all residential properties Dublin - all residential properties

17 Irish Private Rents Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 (JAN 20045=100)

18 Trends in Irish Taxation Expenditure Taxes f 2018f 19.3 bln 18.4 bln 19.5 bln 20.3 bln % Tax Take 42.4% 38.5% 38.5% 38.2% Income Tax 12.4 bln 19.1 bln 20.2 bln bln % Tax Take 27.2% 40.0% 39.9% 40.0% Corporation Tax 6.7 bln 7.4 bln 7.97bln 8.50 bln % Tax Take 14.7% 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% Capital Taxes 3.5 bln 1.2 bln 1.2 bln 1.31 bln % Tax Take 7.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% Total Tax Take ( bln) 45.5 bln 47.9bln 50.6 bln bln

19 BREXIT 2 ISSUES Currency movements Pre-Brexit Trading relationship Post-Brexit

20 GBP v Euro /1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017

21 Brexit Article 50 invoked by UK March 29 th 2017 EU-27 response April 29th many conflicting aspirations March 29 th 2019 the deadline UK stance complicated by domestic politics election result has not helped Divorce settlement will be very difficult 4 EU Pillars the big issue Terms of divorce will drive trade negotiations Hard Brexit the obvious risk 44% of UK exports to EU & 19% to US

22 UK Position Brexit talks have stalled Partnership and Creative Solutions 3 possibilities > Norway (European Economic Area), Canada ( Free Trade Deal) & Turkey (Customs Union Arrangements)> UK has effectively ruled out all three 2 year transition period Sudden EU crash exit or compromise?

23 Brexit & Ireland Sterling impact to date post-brexit trading relationship the bigger issue Broad & significant sectoral implications Trade exposure very strong > 37% Food & Drink exports; 70% Prepared Consumer Food exports go to UK Border Issue very problematical Opportunities as UK companies move to EU base particularly financial services Can Ireland accommodate influx of investment? Housing an issue regional opportunities

24 Brexit and Ireland No certainty as to how the process will evolve Ireland has the biggest issues of the EU-27 Every sector will be affected to varying degrees Legal, logistical and real economic implications WTO trade conditions would have profound implications for trade

25 The Agri-Food Sector Contribution to GDP 7.6% 8.6% total employment > 173, % of Merchandise Exports Food & Beverage sector accounts for 21% of All Industry Turnover; 22% of all Industry Gross output The most important indigenous sector

26 Consumer Food Prices (Jan 05=100) Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 CPI Food Beef & Veal Poultry

27 Foodwise 2025 Published July 2015 targeting quality conscious consumer sustainable production & high quality Local Roots, Global Reach 85% increase in exports to 19 bln 70% increase in value added to 13 bln 60% increase in primary production to 10 bln 23,000 additional jobs along supply chain Brexit will make these targets very challenging

28 Agri-Food Trade UK(2016) TOTAL ( 000s) EXPORTS 4.8 bln IMPORTS 3.7 bln Beef 1,113,448 98,616 Dairy 857, ,177 Pigmeat 408, ,072 Cereals 339, ,748 Beverages 301, ,362 Live Animals 259, ,920 Fruit & Veg 239, ,003 Poultry 217, ,315 Animal Foodstuffs 211, ,782 Forestry 176,544 53,149 Fish 64, ,592 Sheepmeat 52,027 17,980 Other Meat & Meat Produce 46,949 19,569 Other 517, ,698

29 Brexit Issues for Agri Sector Disproportionate exposure to UK market Exports very vulnerable Potential for import substitution Sterling is the immediate issue Trading relationship the longer-term issue Strong brand very important Diversification the only real strategy but very challenging

30 Overseas Visitors to Ireland 2016 H1 2017H1 % CHANGE Great Britain 1,865 1, % France % Germany % Italy Other Europe % North America % Australia/NZ % Other % Total 4,384 4, %

31 What can Irish Companies do? Plan on basis of Hard-Brexit All UK exposures need to be identified Logistical issues need to be identified Remedies put in place Trade diversification easier said than done Import substitution Post-Brexit Physical presence in UK market?

32 ANY QUESTIONS?

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