2020 Poll: August 2018

Transcription

1 2020 Poll: August 2018 for Publication on 2 nd September 2018 Paul Moran 2 nd September

2 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 875 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.3 POLL The 875 interviews on the poll were carried out between 23 rd July 6 th August The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

3 Introduction This Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on 2 nd September The topics covered in this report are our Attitudes towards Housing and regulations on Mortgage affordability, along with consumer s behaviour towards savings. POLL Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 875 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 23 rd July 6 th August Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 The Results

5 Back to Basics will solve great Property conundrum Over the past fortnight, there were two interesting outlooks published on the property market in Ireland. Earlier this week the well-respected The Economist newspaper declared that house prices in the capital are overvalued by 25pc. This came on the back of news a couple of weeks ago that a study by the Central Bank and the Chartered Surveyors of Ireland stated that the Property price peak is within sight in Ireland. Views from The Economist should not be taken lightly. They were after all, one of the harbingers of the last collapse in Irish property. So where does this leave us? How do we feel about the issue of Housing? Our recent Kantar Millward Brown / Sunday Independent Poll casts a light on the mood of the public. We are undoubtedly becoming more circumspect on this issue. We recognise that the current situation of property increases is both unsustainable and ill-advised. For home owners, the exuberance this time around feels like drinking fizzy wine, and not the Champagne that was metaphorically indulged on during the mid-noughties. Overall, two in five (41pc) feel that now is a good time to buy a house, versus one in three (32pc) disagreeing. The numbers are beginning to converge. In terms of net positivity (that is, those more positive about housing prices minus those more negative in their outlook), the trend is stark. Back at the height of the Recession (May 2012), the net positivity figure was +63pc, slipping to +57pc in October 2013, dropping dramatically by April 2017 (+21pc) to now where we are sitting (+9pc). But that is only half the picture. Many of the people we surveyed are already on that property ladder. It is more instructive to look at those who aspire to do so those saving for a mortgage. Albeit off a smaller sample size, their views are illuminating. 43pc of them feel now is the time to buy, versus 39pc saying it is not. We need to bear in mind that we did not put a timeframe on when they are going to buy some may be biding their time and waiting in the long grass for another collapse. 5

6 Back to Basics will solve great Property conundrum (Cont d) With that in mind, the opinions of this cohort are sharply polarised in their outlook 54pc feel that a housing collapse, similar to the last recession will happen, compared to 12pc disagreeing. This may be more wishful thinking as opposed to economic reality, for the time being. However, extrapolating the figures, one suspects that most of those saving for a house are just doing that saving for a home. This is not a speculative thing just simply a desire for the ability to put down roots. When asked if the Central Bank s rules on lending criteria are unfair, three in five agree that they are, rising to 74pc of potential mortgage buyers. So there is a paradox there. They think there is the potential for a collapse, but want to get on the bandwagon all the same. It seems so similar to Joseph Heller s perpetual paradox in his novel Catch-22. To escape having to go to war, you needed to prove your insanity. But by doing so, you proved that you are sane, by identifying your insanity. The frustration of potential home buyers is visceral. From a Governmental policy point of view, the promise of upscaling the number of houses being built seems hollow in the short term (notwithstanding the elephant in the room that is the dearth of social housing). Again reflecting the current imbalances, of those who save/try and save money, over one in five (22pc) are doing so to build up enough for a mortgage/home deposit. This has increased from 15pc since April 2017, and from eight percent in Whilst there is a definite argument for prudence in terms of lending, the proportion of people being stuck within a pincer movement of historically high rents, and then trying to save for a deposit is stifling. There are no easy answers to this conundrum. However, it is becoming tedious to be having the debate that is the continual rollercoaster of property issues. Generation after generation we have this same conversation, and we still can t manage to get the fundamentals right. 6

7 2020 Poll: Our attitudes to housing

8 Housing Market and Mortgages: Opinions are beginning to converge on whether now is a good time to buy a house; two in five feel the market could collapse, whilst Potential Home buyers are becoming more critical of Central Bank lending rules Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Now is a good time to buy a house 6 The Housing Market is destined to collapse like it did during the recent recession Agree strongly () (12) (8) (26) 10 Banks are doing enough to help potential house buyers get mortgages~ 3 20 The Central Bank s rules on Mortgage lending criteria are unfair for first time buyers~ 29 Among those saving for a Mortgage* Disagree Agree Good time to buy Collapse imminent Agree slightly (31) (26) (21) (25) (23) 43 (60) 12 (32) 54 (46) 17 Neither (18) (20) (18) (19) Disagree slightly (11) (17) (15) (7) Disagree strongly () (12) (25) (7) 9 Don t know (12) (13) () (18) Bankers are doing enough 47 (32) 36 (47) Central Banks rules are unfair 5 (19) 74 (55) Net agree (45) 41 (38) 41 (29) 23 (51) 60 Net disagree (24) 32 (29) 21 (40) 49 () 9 ~ Statement introduced on 2017 ( ) = April 2017 Results *Base size 110 Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the housing market and mortgages. 8

9 Housing Market and Mortgages: Half of us feel the Banks are not doing enough to help people get mortgages; up significantly since April 2017 Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Agree strongly Agree slightly Neither Disagree slightly May 2012 Banks are doing enough to help potential house buyers get mortgages Oct Apr Aug Disagree strongly Don t know Net agree Net disagree Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the housing market and mortgages. 9

10 Housing Market and Mortgages: A significant minority still believe it is a good time to buy a house, although enthusiasm is becoming more tempered Base: All Aged 18+ (875) May 2012 Oct 2013 Now is a good time to buy a house Apr 2017 Aug Agree strongly Agree slightly Neither Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don t know Net agree Net disagree Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the housing market and mortgages. 10

11 Attitudes/behaviour towards Saving: Nearly three in five of us save, or attempt to save regularly. One in five say they cannot afford to, similar to last year, reflecting the fact that the rising financial tide is not floating all boats Base: All Aged 18+ (875) August 2018 Higher Among Farming Community year olds 23 Conn/Ulster 22 C2DE 18 Higher Among DEs year olds 27 Munster I try to save regularly, but only when I have the money to spare I save a regular amount each month I generally don t save money I cannot afford to save money Don t know Refused Oct Apr 2017 Aug August 2018 Higher Among ABs year olds year olds 32 C1s 36 Higher Among year olds 39 C1s 39 C2s 42 Dublin 38 Leinster 37 Brackets denote October 2013 data Q. Which of these statements best applies to your own situation 11

12 What are people saving for? Nearly half are being prudent for prudence s sake, whilst the numbers saving for a mortgage has increased again Base: All who save/try to save regularly (531) Oct 2013 Apr 2017 Aug 2018 Rainy day Holidays Car Home improvements Home mortgage deposit Education Something else Q. Could you tell me which of the following you are saving for? 12

13 Thank you For Further details contact Paul Moran Kantar Millward Brown 6 Ely Place, Dublin 2 T (1)