2017 Q4 Residential Property Price Survey

Transcription

1 17Q Resi dent i al Pr oper t y Pr i cesur vey Febr uar y

2 17 Q Residential Property Price Survey The CBI/SCSI Residential Property Price Survey is a quarterly sentiment survey of estate agents, auctioneers and surveyors, as well as those with a more indirect interest in the industry such as economists, market analysts and academics. While the main focus is on participants house price expectations, it also canvasses opinion on the factors underlying these and on the level of sales activity. The survey is a snapshot of respondents expectations at a particular point in time and so can provide only limited information about possible future property price developments. The survey also provides a measure of uncertainty regarding those expectations, which is a useful complement to the available information on the domestic property market. Key Highlights Nationally, 97 and 9 anticipate an increase in prices over a one and three year time period, respectively. No Dublin-based respondents anticipate a price decrease over the same medium-to-long term horizon. The median degree of expected price inflation nationally is per cent (+1 Year) and 1 per cent (+3 Years). Dublin expectations for one year ahead have declined from per cent to 7 per cent, while +3 Year expectations have remained at per cent since the previous survey. Supply of units ( nd hand and new) constitute the primary factors behind anticipated price increases in both national and Dublin areas. Performance of the economy is the third-ranked factor for both areas. Sales activity measured in a PMI index has declined nationally to but remains above the threshold that signals expansion in the sector. The complexity of rental market legislation was cited as the primary factor influencing the number of BTL properties coming onto the market (31 per nationally and per cent for Dublin-based respondents).

3 SECTION A: EXPECTED DIRECTION OF PRICE CHANGE A majority of participants expect national house prices to increase across all relevant time horizons (+1 Year and +3 Year). The share anticipating national house price growth in one year s time is broadly in line with recent survey results at 97 per cent. No Dublin-based respondents expect a decline in prices in the medium-to-long term. The charts below depict the proportion of respondents who anticipate a price increase minus the proportion of those who expect a price decrease. 1 Connacht is the only province that anticipates a price decline in three years time. Chart 1: Net share of respondents expecting property prices to rise over selected time horizons (National): 1Q to 17Q Chart : Net share of respondents expecting property prices to rise over selected time horizons (Dublin): 1Q to 17Q Q 17Q3 17Q 17Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 1Q 17Q 17Q3 17Q 17Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 1Q +1 Quarter +1 Year +3 Years +1 Quarter +1 Year +3 Years Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 13 surveys (1Q to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. Note: Chart provides details of the results from past 13 surveys (1Q to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. Chart 3: Expected movement of residential property prices over a 1 Year time horizon: 17Q Chart : Expected movement of residential property prices over a 3 Year time horizon: 17Q share of respomdents (% ) 3 3 share of respomdents (% ) share of respomdents (% ) 3 3 share of respondents (% ) increase no change decrease Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets. increase no change decrease Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets 1 The net share of respondents expecting property prices to rise over selected time horizons is calculated by subtracting the proportion who anticipate a price decrease from those who anticipate a price increase. The share of respondents who expect prices to remain unchanged over the time horizons are not included in the charts or underling calculations.

4 SECTION B: EXPECTED DIRECTION OF PRICE CHANGE The median degree of expected national house price appreciation for the +1 Year time horizon has remained stable at per cent compared to the previous survey, while the +3 Year expectation has declined from to 1 per cent. Expectations for Dublin over the +1 Year time horizon have decreased, for the second successive survey, to 7 per cent, while the +3 Years expectation remains at per cent for the fifth survey in a row. Chart : Median expected change in National residential property prices over a 1 Quarter, 1 Year, and 3 Year time horizon Chart : Median expected change in Dublin residential property prices over a 1 Quarter, 1 Year, and 3 Year time horizon median anticipated change (% ) Q3 17Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 1Q3 17Q3 17Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 1Q3 17Q 17Q Q Q Q Q 1Q +1Quarter +1Year +3Years time horizon Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 1 surveys (1Q3 to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. 1 1 median anticipated change (% ) median anticipated change (% ) Q3 17Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 1Q3 17Q3 17Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 1Q3 17Q 17Q Q Q Q Q 1Q +1Quarter +1Year +3Years time horizon Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 1 surveys (1Q3 to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. 1 1 median anticipated change (% ) The results of the survey are not out of line with the findings of similar surveys and analysis carried out in recent weeks. In the 17Q Daft.ie Irish House Price Report survey, over 1, property-market participants who visited the website expect house prices to be.7 and 7. per cent higher nationally and in Dublin (respectively) this time next year. The Sunday Independent s recent How much is your house worth analysis provides a one-year ahead forecast for all areas across Ireland anticipate prices to rise by 7.3 and 7. per cent on average nationally and in the capital respectively. The Sunday Independent forecasts are provided by local auctioneers in each postcode, city, and county, and are reflective to conditions prevalent in each local market. For the purpose of comparison in this analysis, we have taken the average predicted price change of all areas that compromise Dublin and each provincial area. The SCSI Annual Residential Property Review and Outlook surveys over -chartered surveyors in a similar manner to this survey, however in addition to a larger sample size, anticipated price changes are provided for both new and second-hand properties and of

5 properties of varying size and type. The average predicted increase for both national and Dublin property prices is 7. per cent. Chart 7: +1 Year Anticipated Price Increases across various surveys National Dublin Munster Leinster Connacht Ulster 1 percentage of anticpated price increase CBI/SCSI Survey Sunday Indepenent SCSI Annual Report Daft.ie House Price Report Note: Chart provides details of the results from the recent survey of property price professional and the median values for counties, cities, and towns in the Sunday Independent How much is your house worth? analysis. Daft,ie data are based on a quarterly survey of over 1, market participants which asks about respondents sense of expected price changes over the next 1 months for predicted price changes in a year s time is not available at a provincial level. SECTION C: FACTORS UNDERLYING HOUSE PRICE EXPECTATIONS The primary factors considered to influence expectations surrounding house price developments nationally relate to the supply of housing units (second-hand & new) representing a combined per cent of number-one ranked factors. These factors accounted for and 3 per cent of primary factors in Dublin and Non-Dublin markets, respectively. Increased economic performance related to rising disposable incomes and a buoyant labour market was found to have an impact on house price expectations at the national level by, up from per cent in the previous survey. In Non-Dublin areas, Other issues (1 per cent) were selected as the joint-second most prevalent condition with interest rates and the perception of value being the driving subcomponents of this factor. Separating out the factors influencing price expectations by the extent of the anticipated price change, the 3 respondents who estimate national prices to increase above the median value of per cent in 3-Years time identified the supply of units to be their primary concern. These factors accounted for 9 per cent of the number-one factors compared to per cent of the overall sample. For Dublin, the same factors constitute 71 per cent of respondent s selections for those who anticipate prices to increase by over the median 1 per cent value across the Predicted changes are provided for the following new and second-hand property types: 1 and -bed apartments, and 3-bed town houses, 3 and -bed semi-detached houses, and /-bed detached houses.

6 3-Year time horizon. In Non-Dublin areas, supply constraints comprises only 7 per cent, while issues such as the performance of the economy and the level of interest rates are more prevalent and account for 19 and per cent of factors respectively. The factors selected by those below the median national anticipated price change are more evenly dispersed as the supply of units has decreased from per cent to 9 per cent, with the performance of the economy and availability of bank credit comprising 3 and per cent of factors respectively. In Dublin, the results are similarly dispersed, but the availability of second-hand units is the most prevalent factors amongst 3. The same trend is evident in Non- Dublin areas amongst 33. Results from the 17Q Daft.ie House Price Report Survey highlight similar issues as approximately identified a shortage of property to be the key factor driving national price changes, up from per cent in Q. In the Daft.ie survey, the proportion who consider the availability of mortgage credit to be the primary factor has been in steady decline since 11Q and currently accounts for less than 3 per cent of respondent s views. Chart : Top 3 factors influencing expectations of house price developments: 17Q Chart 9: Number 1 ranked factor influencing expectations of house price developments): 17Q 7 7 % % number of respondents 3 3 number of respondentse 9% % 7% % % % 3% % 9% % 7% % % % 3% % % % % % nd hand stock Cons. new units Bank credit Macropru. rules Economy Other 1st Factor nd Factor 3rd Factor Note: Chart based on 99 observations from 3 respondents. Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets. Other includes; value, rental market developments, FX movements and interest rates

7 NATIONAL DUBLIN Chart : Primary factor influencing expectations of house price developments (National, Dublin, and Non-Dublin): Q - 17Q % % % 3% % % % 7% % 9% % Q Q Q1 Q Q3 Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q Q Q1 Q Q3 Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q NON-DUBLIN Q Q1 Q Q3 Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q % % % 3% % % % 7% % 9% % nd hand stock Cons. new units Bank credit Macropru. rules Economy Other Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 9 surveys (Q to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. SECTION D: ACTIVITY LEVEL vs. PREVIOUS QUARTER In terms of sales activity, a Purchasing Manager s Index is constructed to show respondents level of activity across the sector. This is a composite index that applies differing weightings on the sales categories posed to respondents which are instructions, enquiries, agreed, and completions. Respondents are asked to state their level of activity relative to the previous quarter in each of the aforementioned categories on a 1 to scale ranging from far less activity to far more activity. A value above signifies an expansion of activity. The latest data exhibit a slowdown in perceived activity at the national level for the fourth consecutive survey with the index declining from to. In Dublin, the index has increased to driven by growth in the sales completed category. The PMI for the non-dublin region has declined from to 1, but remains above the threshold for growth in sales activity. Chart 11: Q-on-Q Index of residential market Sales Activity 3 Chart 1: Q-on-Q Index of residential market sales activity: Sales Completed 3 Sales Activity comprises four separate categories which respondents are questioned on: Sales instructions (from sellers), Sales enquiries /property viewings (from buyers), Sales agreed but not proceeding to completion, and Sales completed Sales Completed is one of four categories of activity for which respondents are asked to report their level of activity relative to the previous quarter.

8 Index Index Index Index Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q National Dublin Non-Dublin National Dublin Non-Dublin Note: Values of signify no change in construction activity on the previous month. Values above signify an expansion of activity, while those below signify a contraction. Chart provides details of the results from the past 13 surveys (1Q to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. Note: Values of signify no change in construction activity on the previous month. Values above signify an expansion of activity, while those below signify a contraction. Chart provides details of the results from the past 13 surveys (1Q to 17Q). Number of observations vary from survey to survey. SECTION D: FACTORS INFLUENCING BTL PROPERTIES FOR SALE Respondents consider a rise in the number of residential investment units coming onto the market to be primarily driven by rent legislation being too complex and restrictive. This response was received from 31 per cent on a national basis, and per cent for Dublin. The second highest factor at the national level is pressure from lending institutions to liquidate assets that accounts for 7 per cent of number-one ranked factors in the current survey, and approximately 3 per cent of the previous surveys. Chart 13: Primary factor influencing the number of BTL properties coming onto the market (National and Dublin): 17Q Chart 1: Primary factor influencing the number of BTL properties coming onto the market (National and Dublin): 17Q1-Q 17Q DUBLIM NATIONAL 17Q 17Q3 17Q 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 Rent legislation Pressure to sell Negative Equity Low rental return Other 17Q % % % 3% % % % 7% % 9% % National Dublin Negative Equity Rent legislation Pressure to sell Low rental return Other Note: Chart based on 77 for the national level and 7 responses for Dublin. Note: Number of responses varies across surveys

9 APPENDIX Chart A1: Regional distribution of respondents Chart A: Number of residential units sold in the 17Q Dublin (1) 3 small (lhs) Munster () Leinster (17) Connacht () Ulster () number of respondents medium (lhs) large (lhs) number of respondents >1 Region () to to 11 to to 1 to 3 number of properties sold 31 to 1 to 7 7 to Over Note: Chart based on 3 full or partial responses Note: Chart based on responses from respondents who gave details of their levels of sales. Chart A3: Extent of expected 1 Year change in residential property prices: National and Dublin Chart A: Extent of expected 3 Year change in residential property prices: National and Dublin share of respondents (% ) 3 3 share of respondents (% ) share of respondents (% ) 3 3 share of respondents (% ) National Dublin National 1 Dublin 1 extent of expected house price change (%) extent of expected house price change (%) Note: Chart based on 91 and responses to the question on national and Dublin expectations respectively Note: Chart based on 9 and 3 responses to the question on national and Dublin expectations respectively

10 Methodology Response Rate The 17Q Central Bank of Ireland/Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland Survey of Property Professionals was conducted in January. The survey received 3 full or partial responses, in comparison to in 17Q and 9 in Q. Questions 1. How do you perceive/anticipate national residential property prices to have changed/change in: a) The previous quarter b) The forthcoming quarter c) One year ahead d) Three years ahead (Increase/ No Change/ Decrease; Range). How do you perceive/anticipate residential property prices in your region to have changed/change in: a) The previous quarter b) The forthcoming quarter c) One year ahead d) Three years ahead (Increase/ No Change/ Decrease; Range) 3. What are the three main factors influencing your expectations of house price developments? (Availability of nd hand stock, Availability of bank credit, Central Bank macroprudential rules, Changes in demographics/population, Construction of new residential units, Foreign exchange rate movements, Performance of the economy, Perception of value, Level of interest rates, Level of taxation / fiscal policy, Other, Media coverage, Rental market developments). Approximately, how many residential properties has your firm sold in 17Q3? (Range). Compared to the previous quarter, how would you describe the following aspects of your firm's residential property related sales activity in the current quarter? (Instructions, Enquiries, Agreements, Completions; Range). What are the three main factors why residential investment units are coming onto the market? (Landlords coming out of negative equity, Net rental returns too low, Rent legislation is too complex and restrictive, Not enough rental demand, Pressure from lending institutions to liquidate assets)