2020 Poll: August 2018

Transcription

1 2020 Poll: August 2018 for Publication on 16 th September 2018 Paul Moran 16 th September

2 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 875 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.3 POLL The 875 interviews on the poll were carried out between 23 rd July 6 th August The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

3 Introduction This Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on the 16 th September The issue covered in this report was the complex relationship with have with the current economic landscape, and how it affects us in our day to day lives. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 875 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 23 rd July 6 th August Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

4 The Results

5 Once bitten, twice shy of Celtic Tiger 2.0 Why is it that the Celtic Tiger Mark 2.0 is not resonating among the general population? Dare we whisper that phrase? Maybe the phrase itself scares ourselves. Like recovering alcoholics, we do not want to go back to that time of excess. Maybe we have learnt from the mistakes of the past. Or maybe, we are not all economists looking at the National Accounts that on paper says that things are all rosy. We are keeping some money in our back pockets this time around, fearful of what may lie ahead. If you have the money to keep in your back pocket. Yet, for all the wonderful talk from Policy makers, we are still running a deficit. As a populace we may not be tightening our belts so much in a micro level, but we are certainly watching our waistline. Will the Government do the same? So how do you square this conundrum of massive economic growth with a general malaise of how many people are feeling? Our recent Kantar Millward Brown / Sunday Independent shines some light on this paradox. We recognise now that there are certain elements of the economy that are becoming more and more predatory in terms of extracting money from us. The Hospitality industry for a start. However, to experience such experiences, one needs to be able to go out in the first place. Many couples and singletons with kids cannot afford to do so the cost of childcare is in this country, simply oppressive. Our taxes are arduous for what we get it return. This week showed the highest number of people on Hospital waiting lists on record. One suspects that most taxpayers would not begrudge paying their tax for the common good, but it seems like we are funding a black hole, and not just in the Health Department. 5

6 Once bitten, twice shy of Celtic Tiger 2.0 (Cont d) Rents are on the up and up, and the lack of affordable housing is lamentable. Bear in mind, much of the previous wave of house buyers, who may on paper feel smug that they have recovered the value of their houses with increased property prices, are still paying off mortgages from prices from a pre-lehman Brothers era. When the champagne corks were popping for some. But not for many. Our mortgage repayment rates are laughable in the context of ECB rates and across European norms. But that s okay apparently the Banks, with the tacit blind eye from this Government (and those before it) thinks that that s acceptable. The hangover of the previous boom looms large. Notwithstanding this, we are generally upbeat. We may not be prepared to spend as much money, but we still feel that the country is going in the right direction. Two thirds (66pc) feel that as a nation we are on the proper course. We are also generally optimistic with our lot (23pc). It seems that we have reached a crossroads we know what we have, but what is in view is not necessarily touchable. 6

7 2020 Poll: The Economy and our Personal Financial Situation

8 Our Personal Financial Situation: Consumer sentiment towards the future remains firmly in positive territory, although there has been some softening of future optimism compared to last year Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Aug 2017 Compared to last year Aug 2019 This time next year? Better off (36) Better off 36 (36) 35 Same (43) 44 Same (41) 41 Worse off (20) Don t know (2) 20 * Worse off (15) Don t know (8) 18 5 Net difference (+16) (+16) Net difference (+21) (+17) ( ) = il 2017 Results *= Better off minus worse off Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 8

9 Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Compared To Last Year Better Off Same Worse Off Pre Celtic Mid Celtic Post 9/11 Tiger '92 Tiger '97 '02 NET DIFFERENCE Sep '08 Jan '09 '09 Sep '09 Mar ' Sep ' Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul ' Dec ' July '15 Oct/Nov '15 Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Feb '17 '17 Aug ' Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 9

10 Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Pre Celtic Tiger ' Mid Celtic Tiger ' Post 9/11 ' THIS TIME NEXT YEAR? Better off Same Worse off Sept '08 Jan '09 '09 Set '09 Mar ' Sept ' Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul ' Dec ' July '15 Oct/Nov ' Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Feb '17 '17 Aug '18 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now?

11 Financial Situation vs. Last Year X Demographics: there are clear demographic differences, showing that the recovery has been an uneven affair Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Gender Male Female Age Net Difference No Change -12 Social Class AB C1 C2 DE F Region Dublin Leinster Munster Conn/Ulster Net Difference No Change Vs. Aug 2017 Better off Worse off 11

12 Financial Situation vs. Next Year X Demographics: over the next twelve months, certain cohorts in Irish society (Under 45s and Dubliners) expect to benefit more from the buoyant economy Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Gender Male Female Age Net Difference Social Class AB C1 C2 DE F Region Dublin Leinster Munster Conn/Ulster Net Difference Vs. Aug 2019 Better off Worse off 12

13 How will the Economic Situation fare over the next twelve months? Three in ten believe the economic situation will improve more over the next twelve months significantly down compared to last year, but arguably a more pragmatic viewpoint Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Higher Among Males C2s 56 Dublin 64 Remain the same (37) Improve (38) Higher Among ABs year olds 34 Higher Among DEs 27 Farming Community 25 Get worse (19) 17 6 Don t know (6) Munster 37 Conn/Ulster 25 Leinster 25 ( ) = il 2017 Results Q. Do you think that the present Economic Situation of the country is likely to improve, remain the same or get worse over the next 12 months 13

14 Economic Situation: Negativity towards the future is at a 20 year low Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Improve Same Get Worse 0 Banking Crash Height of Celtic Tiger Net Difference Jan '09 '09 Sept '09 Mar ' Sept ' Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 '17 Aug ' Q. And do you think that the present economic situation of the country is likely to IMPROVE, REMAIN THE SAME or GET WORSE over the NEXT 12 MONTHS?

15 What direction is the country going in?: two in three half feel we are going on the right direction; significantly ahead of last year Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Higher Among DEs 31 Farming Community 23 Leinster 32 Conn/Ulster 29 Don t know Wrong direction (29) (20) Higher Among Right direction (52) ABs 78 Dublin 86 C1s year olds C2s 73 ( ) = il 2017 Results Q. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that thinks have gone on the wrong track? 15

16 Where do we think the country is going? A focus on how our fears: how times have changed. Just one in five believe we are on the wrong track down from a record high of 84 Base: All Aged 18+ (875) 0 66 now say that as a country are on the RIGHT TRACK Jan '09 '09 Sept '09 Mar ' Sept ' Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Dec '11 Jul '12 '17 Aug '18 Q. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have gone on the wrong track? 16

17 Personal Mood 2018 versus 2017 we are hugely more positive than were five years ago; over three in four express upbeat sentiments Positive Happy Optimistic Cheerful Relaxed Calm (77) (30) (20) (9) (11) (7) (3) (6) (4) (8) (3) Unhappy Pessimistic Depressed Anxious Angry Negative 25 (24) ()=il 2017 Results Q. Which ONE of the following words best describes your own personal mood about living in Ireland nowadays? 17

18 So where are we going? /PM

19 A focus on Value for Money and Perceived Service Levels Received

20 Which sectors offer better value for money? Retail is generally holding steady, but hospitality continues to slip back further into the bad old times consumers feel they are getting less bang for their buck Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Hotel Accommodation Alcohol bought to drink at home/someone else s home Eating out in restaurants Clothes Shopping Grocery Shopping Alcohol bought in Pubs/clubs etc Worse value for money The same value for money Better value for money Don t Know May 2012 Oct 2013 il 2017 August 2018 Q. In general, in which of these sectors do you think you are getting better or worse value for money than you did five years ago? 20

21 The level of service experienced: Levels of service are holding relatively steady across most retail and hospitality sectors Base: All Aged 18+ (875) May 2012 Hotels Restaurants Grocery retail outlets shops Clothes retail outlets shops Pubs/clubs Worse Service The same level of Service Better Service Don t Know Oct 2013 il 2017 August 2018 Q. And in general, in which of these sectors do you think you are getting better or worse service than you did five years ago? 21

22 How our Discretionary Spending behaviour is changing

23 Discretionary Spending compared to the two years ago just over half are holding their discretionary spending steady one in seven are spending more Base: All Aged 18+ (875) Which ONE of these statements BEST describes your behaviour regarding the purchase of smaller treat items such as take-away coffees, lottery tickets, confectionery, magazines, cosmetics etc? JULY 2012 APR 2017 AUG 2018 Higher Among Higher Among year olds 59 Dublin Residents 57 More No change year olds year olds year olds 18 ABs 24 Leinster Residents 19 Farming Community Higher Among Females DEs Dublin 57 Less Don t know Q. Which ONE of these statements BEST describes your behaviour regarding the purchase of smaller treat items such as take-away coffees, lottery tickets, confectionery, magazines, cosmetics etc.? 23

24 Projected Spending over the next twelve months (I): Again there is evidence that many are adopting a cautious approach to the future, and are consolidating what they have Base: All aged 18+ (n=875) Savings or Investment accounts House decorations/ renovations Entertaining at home Weekend breaks in Ireland Weekly Grocery shopping Clothes shopping Foreign Holidays Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Will reduce Will not change Will increase Don t know Q. Over the next 12 months do you think you will reduce, increase or not change the amount you spend on each of the following? 24

25 Projected Spending over the next twelve months (II): Impulse purchases also see signs of this cautious approach. We are not intending to become too flaithúlach Base: All aged 18+ (n=875) Going to restaurants Mobile telephone bills Impulse purchase of sweets and soft drinks Going to pubs Alcohol Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Will reduce Will not change Will increase Don t know Q. Over the next 12 months do you think you will reduce, increase or not change the amount you spend on each of the following? 25

26 Thank you For Further details contact Paul Moran Kantar Millward Brown 6 Ely Place, Dublin 2 T (1)