BCS Workshop, Brussels. November 10-11, GfK Türkiye. Ekim 2008

Transcription

1 Tüketicinin Implementing Nabzı Consumer Araştırması Survey Raporu in Turkey Ekim 8

2 Contents 1 Overview of Methodology & Sampling 2 Consumer Confidence Indicator for Turkey 3 Demographic Implications of CCI Variables 4 Key Notes

3 1 Overview of Methodology & Sampling

4 Methodology 4 Methodology CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviews) Start May 7 (Finetuning with a pilot in April 7) Timing 1-15th of every month Press release Last day of every month since March 8 Published in 26 printed + online newspapers in Sept. 8

5 Sample Sample 1, interviews / month with people aged Sampling method Quota sampling (crosses of gender, age and education representative of Turkish population) Max. standard error The sample size has +/- 2,9 % max. standard error at 95% confidence interval Quotas Gender Age Education Male 5% Female 5% % % 65+ 8% % Seco ndar y % Furth er 8% Prima ry 72%

6 Geographical coverage : Urban & rural 6 Rural 32% Urban 68%

7 Geographical coverage : 26 Cities in 12 Regions at NUTS-I level 7 Regions % İstanbul 17 Aegean 13 Mediterranean 13 West Anatolia South East Anatolia East Marmara 9 Central Anatolia 6 West Black Sea 6 Middle East Anatolia 6 West Marmara 4 East Black Sea 4 North East Anatolia 3 TOTAL Adana Afyon Ankara Antalya Aydın Balıkesir Bursa Denizli Diyarbakır Edirne Erzurum Gaziantep İstanbul Cities İzmir Kastamonu Kayseri Kocaeli Konya Malatya Mersin Ordu Samsun Şanlıurfa Trabzon Van Zonguldak

8 2 Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) for Turkey

9 Consumer Confidence Indicator for Turkey Indicator points ,2-2,6-8,2-7,5-9,9-8,2-9,7-11,2-12,2 -,3-27,8-29,4-29,9-33,6-28,6-19,9-24,7-33, -5 Consumer Confidence Indicator takes a steady downfall trend after Oct. 7, followed by a small recovery in summer 8, but starts to fall once again after Sept. 8

10 Central Bank CCI Since 3 Face-face, CAPI -Computer Aided Personal Interviews n: 2, / month Sample: Respondents 15+, employed (Part of national survey on Labor Statistics) Questions for calculating CCI Expectations about current economic situation the household (6 months)* Evaluations & expectations on the economic situation the household (3 months) Expectations on employment (6 months) Whether it is right time for spending on major purchases* * Different questions than GfK Türkiye CCI

11 CNBC-E CCI 11 Since 2 CATI -Computer Aided Telephone Interviews n: 7 / month Sample: Use 3-point scales Questions for calculating CCI Evaluations about current economic situation the household (12 months)* Expectations about current economic situation the household (12 months) Evaluations about the general economic situation of Turkey (1 month)* Expectations on the general economic situation of Turkey (12 months) Whether it is right time for spending on major purchases* * Different questions than GfK Türkiye CCI

12 GfK Türkiye CCI* vs. other CCI in Turkey 12 Indicator points 1 GfK Türkiye Central Bank CNBC-E * GfK Türkiye CCI is indexed to for comparison Central Bank indicator for Oct.8 not published yet.

13 GfK Türkiye Consumer Confidence Index in the Press 13

14 Tracking CCI with the agenda Most important (Top of mind) event perceived in Turkey s agenda 14 Election of the President of Republic 7 8 JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Terror General election Military intervention in Northern Iraq 2 2 Turban (headscarf) problem Economy Closurecaseagainst AKP Ergenekon Case Turkey s agenda is constantly changing with political events, while terrorism is always on the top of mind agenda of people in Turkey. 3 Q. Considering last month, what was the most important event/issue on Turkey s agenda?

15 Tracking CCI with the agenda Most important (Top of mind) event perceived in Turkey s agenda ( sum of all events mentioned) % CCI Political events Terror Economic events Turkey s agenda is constantly changing with political events, however rather than fluctuating along with the political agenda, CCI swings down as economic events are more stated by consumers as the top of mind event of the month.

16 3 Demographic Implications of CCI Variables

17 Consumer Confidence Indicator Indicator points Indicator points Urban Rural GENDER SETTLEMENT Female Male

18 Primary Secondary Further Consumer Confidence Indicator Indicator points Indicator points AGE EDUCATION

19 Turkey s economic situation (Expectation for the next 12 months) Urban Rural Female Male 19 GENDER SETTLEMENT

20 Turkey s economic situation (Expectation for the next 12 months) Primary Secondary Further AGE EDUCATION

21 Household s economic situation (Expectation for the next 12 months) Urban Rural Female Male 21 GENDER SETTLEMENT

22 Household s economic situation (Expectation for the next 12 months) Primary Secondary Further AGE EDUCATION

23 Unemployment (Expectation for the next 12 months) Urban Rural GENDER SETTLEMENT Female Male

24 Unemployment (Expectation for the next 12 months) Primary Secondary Further AGE EDUCATION

25 Likeliness to save money (Expectation for the next 12 months) Urban Rural Female Male 25 GENDER SETTLEMENT

26 Likeliness to save money (Expectation for the next 12 months) Primary Secondary Further AGE EDUCATION

27 Expectation on consumer prices (Expectation for the next 12 months) Increase more rapidly+increase at the same rate Urban Rural Female Male 27 GENDER SETTLEMENT

28 Expectation on consumer prices (Expectation for the next 12 months) Increase more rapidly+increase at the same rate Primary Secondary Further AGE EDUCATION

29 4 Key Notes

30 Key notes GfK Türkiye Consumer Confidence Indicator has become one of the major indicators to follow up consumer confidence in Turkey The period when GfK Türkiye CCI was initiated served as a good test period with various important events, including early elections to measure consumer reactions. To understand why consumers think the way they think about confidence, we track the agenda and check demographic segments to understand whether different segments of consumers react in a systematic way. GfK Türkiye CCI is tracked by top-of-mind agenda in consumers minds in Turkey where the agenda is dominated by rapidly changing events. It can be seen that as the top-ofmind importance of economic events increases, CCI takes a downward trend. Looking at GfK Türkiye CCI in terms of demographic segments reveal interesting results in terms of expectations, as displayed in the next slide. The younger generation is optimistic on both micro and macro questions.

31 Key notes 31 Optimistic vs. Pessimistic groups in terms of demographic segments: Optimistics Pessimistics CCI Turkey's economic situation Females Primary education Males Higher education 5-64 Expectation on consumer prices Primary education Higher education Unemployment Higher education Likeliness to save money Males Higher education Females 5-64 Primary education Financial situation of household