2020 Poll: April for Publication on 30 th April /PM

Transcription

1 2020 Poll: April for Publication on 30 th April /PM 1

2 Introduction This Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 30 th April The topics covered in this issue include Consumer Sentiment, Personal Financial Circumstances, how we feel about ourselves and attitudes towards the Housing Situation. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 972 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 7 th 25 th April Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Consumer Sentiment Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 972 adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 The 972 interviews on the poll were carried out between 7 th 25 th April POLL The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 The Results

5 Consumers are now the most upbeat in 28 years Much has been said and written about the continuing resurgence in the Irish economy. There are many viewpoints; For some, the recovery is dangerously fragile and at the mercy of external shocks, for others, it is a more robust affair. For many, it feels practically invisible. One thing is for certain; it has affected the psyche of the nation at large. Kantar Millward Brown have tracked consumer sentiment over many years, and this latest snapshot, conducted up to Tuesday of this week, holds up a mirror to the nation itself. Who has gained, who has not, and how has this Celtic Phoenix affected the mood of the nation? Consumer sentiment continues to strengthen. People generally feel better off financially than they were this time last year, and are looking to the future twelve months with an equally growing sense of optimism. The headline results are as follows compared to this time last year, there is a net positivity of +16 points. That is, the percentage of those feeling better off minus the percentage of those feeling worse off. Similarly, the outlook over the next year show a net positivity of +21 points. This sentiment looking towards the future is not to be taken lightly. It is only the third time since the crash that the figures have been in the black; all occasions having been in since Contrast this with the depths of the depression; in December 2012, just four and a half years ago, this sentiment calculation was registering a terrifying negativity of -49. This most recent positivity score is made up of 36pc of the population feeling they will be better off, compared to 15pc believing they will be worse off. Looking behind these headline figures, it is important to see how our mood has evolved. Examining the longer term trends more closely, there is one figure that catches the eye. Whilst 36pc of the population claiming to be upbeat about their financial future may seem somewhat modest, this is in effect the highest score given in well over 20 years it surpasses the optimism even of the original Celtic Tiger years in the late nineties that was a time when the economy was growing organically, unlike the property-based boom of later years, which simply was the economic equivalent of being pumped full of steroids. 5

6 Consumers are now the most upbeat in 28 years (Cont d) What is even more astonishing is that this comes at a time of great uncertainty, given the twin threats of Brexit and the Trump administration s intentions on FDI. In addition, interest rates are not going to stay at their historically low levels for ever the Germans are already becoming more hawkish on that front. So are we deluding ourselves? Time will tell. A second narrative that these results throw up is that there are distinct fissures in the population in terms of equality not all are doing as well. It is quite apparent that the recovering economy is not necessarily rising all boats. There are stark demographic gaps among those feeling financially optimistic towards the future. Males are more likely to be cheerful when forecasting the year ahead. However, the most striking differences are among the generations, social class, and region. Those aged and are notably more enthusiastic about their prospects. Many within these groups would have been the survivors of the crash, when a sizeable proportion of their counterparts emigrated. They now look at the future with optimism, compared to the nihilism of a few short years ago. Interestingly, these guys are also more likely to be in the eye of the storm that is the housing crisis. It would seem that things are not all bad. As you then get older, you are more likely to view the next twelve months with a more circumspect eye. This downward trend reaches its low point among those aged 65+. They are the only cohort to feel more negative (-3). Indeed, this age group were the only ones that also felt they were worse off compared to last year. The trend among socio economic groups is relatively unexpected. The more affluent professional classes (ABs) are most sanguine about the year ahead. C1s (other white collar workers) and C2s (skilled workers) are also deeply in a positive frame of mind. Among those unskilled workers, or those relying on state assistance (DEs), the next twelve months look no different financially to them. 6

7 Consumers are now the most upbeat in 28 years (Cont d) The farming community is the only cohort in the red (-2). The nature of their business can be precarious at best, and the implications of Brexit will likely be disproportionately impactful. Reflecting the two tier economy that we live in, there is a stark geographical fault line. Optimism is being driven by those living on the Eastern seaboard. Dublin, the cockpit of the economy, surges ahead (+38) followed by residents of Leinster (+23). For Dubliners, their financial mood reflects their skyline the latter buoyant with cranes and development; the former buoyant by a sense of anticipation for the future. Indeed, over half of all Dubliners (55pc) feel they will be better off; the only cohort to surpass that tipping point. For those living in Munster and Conn/Ulster, the picture is more opaque; while these regions are still in positive territory (+8 and +4), the difference in demeanour cannot be ignored. Of course, this two-tier state has been around for a long time, but policy makers at some stage must grasp the nettle to ensure that our top-heavy economy doesn t become unmanageable. Reflecting our own personal financial prospects, a sizeable percentage (38pc) of the population believe that the overall macro-economic situation will improve, with a similar amount (37pc) feeling that things will remains steady. Less than one in five see storm clouds on the horizon. There is of course, more to life than financial wellbeing, but it certainly can help. In 2012, at the height of the recession, Kantar Millward Brown sought to measure the population s personal mood. We asked people to best describe their own personal mood about living in Ireland at the time they could pick any one description from five positive words or five negative words. Back then, 17pc of the population chose to describe themselves as anxious, and a further 12pc said they were angry. 10pc at the time were simply pessimistic. The net result was that, at that time, over half (55pc) opted to describe their mood in negative terms. Fast forward to today, and there has been a sea change in how we feel about ourselves. 30pc now describe themselves as happy (vs 12pc previously) and 20pc are optimistic (vs 16pc). Overall, over three in four (77pc) now describe their personal mood in a positive light, and negativity has retreated back to just 23pc. 7

8 Consumers are now the most upbeat in 28 years (Cont d) Whilst the sense of impotency in terms of controlling our own destiny in 2012 was tangible, it is still a remarkable turnaround in the perceived mood of the nation. No doubt the Government will trip over themselves in a rush to take credit for our new sense of financial and personal well-being, and the associated kudos that such news should bring. Of course, the public is more worldly wise to politicians. Several years of recession have infused us with a healthy dose of cynicism. Look no further than last year s general election. 8

9 2020 Poll: The Economy and our Personal Financial Situation

10 Our Personal Financial Situation: Compared to the most recent timeframe two months ago, consumer sentiment has improved dramatically April 2016 Compared to last year April 2018 This time next year? Better off (23) Better off 36 (27) 36 Same (54) Same 43 (49) 41 Worse off (21) Don t know (2) 20 2 Worse off (14) Don t know (9) 15 8 ( ) = February 2017 Results Net difference (+2) (+16) Net difference (+13) (+21) *= Better off minus worse off Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 10

11 Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time Compared To Last Year Better Off Same Worse Off Pre Celtic Tiger '92 NET DIFFERENCE Mid Celtic Tiger '97 Post 9/11 '02 Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov '15 Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Feb '17 Apr ' Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 11

12 Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time Pre Celtic Tiger ' Mid Celtic Tiger ' Post 9/11 ' THIS TIME NEXT YEAR? Better off Same Worse off Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov ' Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 NET DIFFERENCE Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same situation as you are now? 12

13 Financial Situation vs. Last Year X Demographics: there are clear demographic differences, showing that the recovery has been an uneven affair Gender Male Female Age Net Difference No Change -9 Social Class AB C1 C2 DE F Region Dublin Leinster Munster Conn/Ulster Net Difference vs APR 2016 Better off Worse off 13

14 Financial Situation vs. Next Year X Demographics: over the next twelve months, certain cohorts in Irish society expect to benefit more from the resurgent economy, with others more fearful Gender Male Female Age Net Difference Social Class AB C1 C2 DE F Region Dublin Leinster Munster Conn/Ulster Net Difference No Change vs APR 2018 Better off Worse off 14

15 How will the Economic Situation fare over the next twelve months? two in five express confidence; twice as many as those who are fearful. A similar pattern emerges in terms of those most assured of the future Higher Among Higher Among year olds year olds 40 C2s 40 Remain the same Improve ABs 50 C2s year olds 43 C1s 43 Dublin year olds 41 Higher Among DEs 28 Farming Community 26 Get worse 19 6 Don t know Conn/Ulster 24 Q. Do you think that the present Economic Situation of the country is likely to improve, remain the same or get worse over the next 12 months 15

16 Economic Situation: the proportion expressing fears for the economy has collapsed since the darkest days of the recession Improve Same Get Worse Banking Crash Height of Celtic Tiger Net Difference Jan '09 Apr '09 Sept '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Apr ' Q. And do you think that the present economic situation of the country is likely to IMPROVE, REMAIN THE SAME or GET WORSE over the NEXT 12 MONTHS? 16

17 What direction is the country going in?: over half feel we are going on the right direction Higher Among Conn/Ulster DEs 38 Farming Community 34 Females 33 Don t know 20 Higher Among 52 Right direction Wrong direction 29 ABs 64 Dublin 64 C1s year olds year olds 58 Males 58 C2s 57 Q. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that thinks have gone on the wrong track? 17

18 Where do we think the country is going? A focus on how our fears: how times have changed. Just one in four believe we are on the wrong track down from a record high of now say that as a country are on the RIGHT TRACK Jan '09 Apr '09 Sept '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Dec '11 Jul '12 Apr '17 Q. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have gone on the wrong track? 18

19 Personal Mood 2017 versus 2012 we are hugely more positive than were five years ago; over three in four express upbeat sentiments (12) (9) Happy Optimistic Cheerful Relaxed Calm (16) (3) (7) (7) (10) ( 7) (17) (12) Unhappy Pessimistic Depressed Anxious Angry Positive 77 (45) Negative 23 ()=July 2012 Results (55) Q. Which ONE of the following words best describes your own personal mood about living in Ireland nowadays? 19

20 2020 Poll: Our attitudes to housing

21 Housing Market and Mortgages: nearly two in five feel that the housing market will collapse again, but that the Central Bank is still not helping FTB s enough. Those saving for a Mortgage are quite a disparate group for some, they believe a collapse is imminent, and may be keeping their powder dry; for others, now is the time to buy Now is a good time to buy a house The Housing Market is destined to collapse like it did during the recent recession Banks are doing enough to help potential house buyers get mortgages The Central Bank s rules on Mortgage lending criteria are unfair for first time buyers Agree strongly Agree slightly Neither agree nor disagree Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Agree Disagree Agree 38 Disagree Agree 28 Disagree Agree 50 Disagree 14 Among those saving for a Mortgage* Agree Disagree Good time to buy Collapse imminent Bankers are doing enough Central Banks rules are unfair Don t know *Base size 92 Q. Which of these statements best applies to your own situation 21

22 Housing Market and Mortgages: there is a sense that the banks are improving conditions to help people get mortgages, but they still have a long way to go Banks are doing enough to help potential house buyers get mortgages Agree strongly Agree slightly Neither agree nor disagree Disagree slightly MAY 2012 OCT Agree Agree APR Agree 28 Disagree strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree 40 Don t know Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the housing market and mortgages. 22

23 Housing Market and Mortgages: Despite recent house price rises, a significant minority still believe it is a good time to buy a house Now is a good time to buy a house MAY 2012 OCT 2013 APR Agree strongly 48 Agree Agree Agree 45 Agree slightly Neither agree nor disagree Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don t know Disagree Disagree Disagree 24 Q. Which of these statements best applies to your own situation 23

24 Attitudes/behaviour towards Saving: Over half (59) are either regular savers, or endeavour to do so. One in five (19) cannot afford to Higher Among DEs year olds 30 Conn/Ulster I cannot afford to save money (24) Refused Don t know (3) (1) I save a regular amount each month 24 (22) Higher Among ABs year olds year olds 28 Dublin 27 Higher Among Farming Community year olds 16 Conn/Ulster 15 I generally don t save money (11) I try to save regularly, but only when I have the money to spare (29) Higher Among year olds 46 C2s 44 Dublin 42 C1s 42 Brackets denote October 2013 data Q. Which of these statements best applies to your own situation 24

25 What are people saving for? Less are saving for contingency plans, and there has been a sharp rise in those looking towards property related reasons Base: All who save/try to save regularly (597) Rainy day (51) 43 Holidays (29) 27 Home improvements (16) 24 Car (18) 22 Education (20) 17 Home mortgage deposit (8) 15 Something else (8) 10 Brackets denote October 2013 data Q. Could you tell me which of the following you are saving for? 25

26 Attitudes/behaviour towards Pensions : Nearly one in ten have increased their contributions, and the proportion of those who have stopped paying has decreased. I have reduced my monthly pension contribution over the past year (3) 3 I have increased my monthly pension contribution over the past year (4) 9 I have maintained my monthly pension over the past year (19) 22 I have stopped paying into my pension each month (12) 8 I have never had a pension (50) 42 Don t know/refused (12) 15 Brackets denote October 2013 data Q. Could you tell me which of the following you are saving for? 26

27 For more information, please contact: Paul Moran / Ely Place Dublin 2 t (1) /PM 27