Job security in the EU: how confident are Europeans about keeping their jobs in these difficult economic times?

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1 Think... Precise insights for European growth Job security in the EU: how confident are Europeans about keeping their jobs in these difficult economic times? Unemployment is the biggest concern of Europeans for their country. Logically, when the unemployment rate in the EU is constantly increasing: in some EU Member States, more than 25% of the population is unemployed, and these job uncertainties are a worry for all categories: for the unemployed, of course, but also for employed people, who are afraid of losing their job. What is the state of job security in the EU today? Are working Europeans confident of keeping their job in the coming months? Do they think that they would be able to find new work? And more generally, do they think that, after several years of crisis, we can finally see the end of the tunnel? A large majority of working Europeans are confident of keeping their job in the coming months: more than eight in ten are very (43%), or fairly confident (39%), while 15% are not very (11%) or not at all confident (4%). Although these results look encouraging at first sight, a deeper analysis casts some doubt on this positive impression: less than half of working Europeans are almost sure that they will keep their jobs in the coming months: those who are very confident. Europeans who are fairly confident only hope that their working situation will remain unchanged in the near future, but their answer reveals some uncertainty. And this is the case of almost four in ten working Europeans! What is worse, the remaining 15% seem to think that the probability that they will lose their job is quite high. Confidence varies slightly with age. The older a worker is, the more likely he is to expect to keep his job: 48% of the 55+ group are very confident, compared with 42%-43% of those aged between 15 and 54. Level of education creates more differences: while just over a third of Europeans who left school before the age of 16 are very confident (35%), more than half of those who were in education longest feel the same (51%). Finally, the largest variations are seen for occupation 58% of managers are very confident of keeping their job, this proportion falls to 43% of the self-employed, 40% of manual workers, and just 38% of other white collars workers. A majority of respondents in these latter categories have some doubts, however limited, about their job security. continued on next page Think... January 2013 TNS

2 continued Think... lessons for business: A workforce that is afraid of ending up out of work can t be good for a company s health. European businesses should monitor staff morale, if possible, reassuring them about their future in the company; internal communication is key here. The productivity of the company as a whole could be improved by an encouraging message from top management to the effect that all staff are part of the company s strategy. Knowing which categories are the most worried about job security could help top managers to target this communication. European businesses should also communicate externally about the job security they offer: their attractiveness will increase as some consumers might adapt their behaviour in order to support a company where employees are safe. European Governments also should probably bear these results in mind. Special attention should be paid to the most worried categories: the youngest, the least educated, other white-collar staff and manual workers. Most insecure Europeans fear the future, and Governments need to demonstrate that they are taking these worries into account: working along with companies and trade unions to improve job security could be a step in the right direction. How confident would you say you are in your ability to keep your job in the coming months? Are you? (This question was asked to the working Europeans only) Source: Special Eurobarometer (EB) Employment & social policy for the European Commission, EB76.2, September-October 2011, conducted by TNS. Think... January 2013 TNS

3 A minority of working Europeans are very confident of keeping their job in the coming months. And what if they were laid off? How easy would it be to find another job? There is a good deal of pessimism in the EU about the likelihood of finding a new job in the event of redundancy: close to a third of working Europeans think that it is unlikely that they would find work in the next six months if they were to lose their existing job (32%). Interestingly, the crisis seems not to have had much overall impact on public confidence in this respect. At the end of 2006, before the subprime crisis in the US (summer 2007) and the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in the EU (September 2008), three in ten working Europeans were already doubtful of their ability to find a new job in the next six months in the event of redundancy. Large differences exist between Member States, reflecting the different economic situations across the EU: in the three Nordic countries and Austria, less than a fifth of the working population say they would be unlikely to find a job if they were made redundant. However, more than four in ten persons say this in Ireland, Hungary and Italy, and an absolute majority do so in Cyprus, Spain and Greece. All Member States have not been hit by the crisis in the same way. If the results of this question are relatively stable at EU level, some national evolutions between 2006 and 2011 are astonishing: pessimism has reduced sharply in Germany (a fall of -21 percentage points in the proportion of respondents who doubt that they could find another job easily), Austria (-17) and Sweden (-11). But at the same time, it has soared in Cyprus (+22), Ireland (+32) and Spain (+33). It gives a healthy image, which can be important all round: for employees, whose confidence in keeping their jobs will be increased; for financial institutions, such as banks, which play an important role for a company; and also for consumers, who might be more likely to purchase the products or services of a company which provides work to their fellow citizens, and which is unlikely to collapse in the near future. EU governments should demonstrate that losing your job does not necessarily means long months or even years of unemployment, because finding new work is possible. Training in sectors that create jobs, like green jobs, could play a role in this respect. It is also important for EU governments to acknowledge how the confidence of their country s population has changed since the beginning of the crisis, to know whether the real situation of the job market corresponds to public perceptions. If you were to be laid-off, how would you rate on a scale of 1 to 10, the likelihood of you finding a job in the next six months? 1 means that it would be not at all likely and 10 means that it would be very likely. (This question was asked to the working Europeans only) Think... lessons for business: Even in difficult economic times, we sometimes hear employers lamenting the difficulties they face in recruiting. It sounds strange indeed, when for the first time ever, the threshold of 200 million unemployed people has been exceeded worldwide; but it might simply mean that the link between companies and citizens needs to be improved. European businesses who recruit should communicate better on their needs, firstly because it will help them to find the right employees meeting their expectations. But also because the message Here, we hire! could have positive repercussions for the company. Source: Special Eurobarometer (EB) Employment & social policy for the European Commission, EB76.2, September- October 2011, conducted by TNS. Think... January 2013 TNS

4 Several years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, aren t we done yet with the crisis? Unfortunately not, say Europeans. Shortly before the cautiously optimistic outlook of Moody s Analytics for 2013, a large majority of Europeans were quite worried about the impact of the crisis on job markets: in autumn 2012, more than six Europeans in ten said that the worst was still to come (62%), while just 29% thought that the crisis had already reached its peak. While pessimism declined almost continuously from June 2009 to spring 2011 (when just 4 points separated the pessimists from the optimists), autumn 2011 marks a turning point: indeed, pessimism rose sharply, by more than 20 points! More than two-thirds of Europeans said that the worst was still to come, surpassing the level reached in May 2009 when the question was asked for the first time. Since autumn 2011, pessimism has remained at a high level. There is often a gap between the way financial analysts foresee the evolution of the economy, and the way these developments are perceived by the general public. This seems to be the case today; although Europeans hear experts explaining that the situation may improve in 2013, and that the euro area might be out of danger, they do not yet feel the same. Anxiety about their jobs overshadows their whole future. The bleak assessment of Europeans who think that the worst impact of the crisis on the job markets is still to come does not necessarily match the real situation of European companies. When European businesses see economic indicators showing signs of recovery, they should make public this optimistic outlook internally and externally: the whole company would benefit from such a positive message. Knowing how anxious Europeans are about unemployment and job security, EU governments should closely monitor this indicator on the impact of the economic crisis on the job market: it provides a sound indication of the public mood. When, as now, a majority of Europeans are pessimistic, EU governments should spread an optimistic message about brighter tomorrows; indeed, when financial analysts and the feared credit rating agencies are even cautiously optimistic, EU governments should say it loud, to boost public confidence. However, when the public feeling about the impact of the crisis seems prematurely over-optimistic, EU governments might have to rein in this over-optimism by saying that though we are on the right track, we still have a long way to go. This will help prevent the public from waking up with a hangover in the morning. Some analysts say that the impact of the economic crisis on the job market has already reached its peak and things will recover little by little. Others, on the contrary, say that the worst is still to come. Which of the two statements is closer to your opinion? Worst is still to come Things have reached their peak Source: Standard Eurobarometer (EB) for the European Commission EB78, Autumn 2012 (November 2012), conducted by TNS. Think... January 2013 TNS

5 Precise plans for Growth Business Growth Internal and external communication Internal communication is an effective way to tell employees that they are part of the future of the company. A confident workforce will be more focused and involved. Establishing an external image as an enterprise where jobs are secure will also benefit the company: it is appealing to consumers. A better definition of needs in terms of recruitment and a positive message to spread Many companies are recruiting, even in difficult times. When they do so, European businesses should ensure that their needs are correctly identified, and communicated to the largest audience. It will help them to find the appropriate candidates, but it will also be good for their image: the slogan Here, we hire! could have positive repercussions. Letting the world know when improvements are expected A large majority of Europeans are convinced that the worst impact of the crisis on job markets is still to come. When their own situation shows signs of improvement, European businesses should say it loud: it could be a good way of distinguishing them from their competitors. Government Growth Reassure the most insecure categories Public confidence in the future is crucial for a government, as it is a vector of growth. EU governments should communicate on their actions to make jobs safe, especially for the most insecure categories. Training in sectors that create jobs Organising training on sectors that might create jobs in the near future could be useful: it might alleviate public anxiety about the future, and help these promising sectors to grow. Be optimistic when pessimism is strong; moderate over-optimism In order to narrow the gap between financial analysts outlooks and public perceptions, EU governments should spread the messages of experts, especially when these are positive. Society as a whole would benefit from a more confident population. However, when people are over-optimistic, EU governments might have to lower somewhat unrealistic expectations, to avoid unpleasant surprises. About TNS TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world s largest insight, information and consultancy groups. TNS Web: enquiries@tnsglobal.com TNS owns all copyright in this paper (including all data contained herein). No person may reproduce or use any information contained in this paper in whole or in part, without express prior written approval. Think... January 2013 TNS