China Economic Update Q1 2015
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1 Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail growth strong Booming e-commerce sector Infrastructure investment up Rapid growth of investment in agriculture Slowdown in new job creation Deflation risk Industrial overcapacities Ripple effects of real estate market slump Slowdown in reform progress Price levels Foreign trade Labor market Inflation remains at low levels Strengthening RMB hurting exports Job creation slows PPI fall continuous Imports affected by weaker demand Wage growth moderate Macroeconomic Indicators growth in % GDP Investment and output Utilized FDI Fixed asset investment Industrial production Price levels Consumer prices (CPI) Producer prices (PPI) Foreign trade Exports Imports
2 Economic Development Q1 China s GDP growth dipped to 7. in the first quarter of 2015, the weakest expansion since 2009 amid the financial crisis. Although caution about economic growth in 2015 is justified, a sharp crash seems unlikely. Even as it is becoming probable that growth may further cool to below 7% in the coming quarter, the overall economy remains robust, and growth is in line to be around 7. in Despite growth falling to record low levels, the world s second largest economy is adding more value in actual terms now than it did with higher growth rates 10 years ago. The economic slowdown is being felt across all macroeconomic indicators. Growth of industrial production and fixed asset investment has slowed significantly, while retail growth has also dropped. The economy, however, is not stalling, and government policy adjustments have been moderate. Proactive policies such as tax breaks, increased infrastructure spending, the easing of housing restrictions and increase in money supply should be regarded as measures intended to cushion the slowdown, rather than as a major intervention. A main reason for this has been that underlying fundamentals for rebalancing the economy and its transition to more sustainable development have been favorable. The transition of China s economy is exemplified by the tertiary sector s continued strong growth. In the first three months the service sector outperformed the secondary sector by expanding 7.9% and 6. respectively, accounting for 51. of GDP. At the same time, new firm registrations have increased by 38., with the majority of new business appearing in the service sector. In 2015 China s economy will face stronger headwinds as it continues its transformation and implements structural reforms, effectively putting it on a stronger footing for future development. In particular, ripple effects in the struggling real estate sector as well as industrial overcapacities will be at the center of the downward pressure. More proactive measures are expected in the coming months as the government s tolerance for lower growth will be put to the test. Rather than keeping growth at artificially high levels for short-term gain, expectations will need to be adjusted to the new reality of moderate growth. Crucial for this transition are further reforms. Some examples so far have been the establishment of new Free Trade Zones as testing grounds for bolder reforms, adjustments to pension and social insurance which will free up capital available for consumption, or easing of administrative regulations. The massive reform agenda has gained some momentum in the first quarter, but progress will need to accelerate further in order to reach the targets set by the government. Price Levels Consumer price levels continued to fall from the already low levels of 2014, dropping to 0. in January. Prices rebounded only slightly in the past two months, but are still well below. Next to more cautious consumption, falling energy prices and a stronger RMB have contributed to low inflation. Falling commodity prices as well as industrial overcapacities have sent producer prices tumbling further, increasing the overall danger of deflation. Foreign Trade Foreign trade has developed below expectations, contracting by 6.3% in dollar terms. Imports in particular nosedived, 2
3 although much of the fall can be attributed to lower import prices of oil. Foreign trade was also affected by reduced capital spending, as business sentiment remains weak. Exports have been highly volatile, with an enormous spike of 48.3% growth in February. The spike has been attributed to the effects of the Chinese New Year, as companies process orders and ship them prior to the holiday. More representative of actual growth was the export growth of 4.7% for the first quarter. The RMB appreciated by 13.1% between January and March, adding to the challenges of exporters, which have been also confronted by increasingly competitive Southeast Asian countries and weak global demand. Trade figures are likely to remain volatile over the coming quarter, and it will be a challenge to reach the growth target in Labor Market In the first quarter 3.2 million jobs were created, which was 6.9% less than during the same period of the previous year. The latest development suggests that the labor market s resilience is being tested. Job creation can be largely attributed to growth in the service sector. Some sectors of the labor market continue to remain tight, with strong demand for for blue collar workers and highly skilled workers. On the upside, fluctuation rates and wage growth have come down. The German Chamber s latest Flash Survey on Wage Trends confirms that German companies expect wage growth to be around 8.1% in Minimum wage adjustments in the first three months have averaged 13.1%, down from previous years. The labor market is a key indicator to monitor as China adjusts to lower growth. Risks and Growth Drivers The risk of a slowdown in job creation will increase the pressure on the government for stronger policy adjustments. Price levels continue to be under pressure with the danger of deflation looming. However, these risks seem manageable, as the government has room for policy adjustments. A slowdown in the real estate market, with its far-reaching effects on the economy, will hamper growth. Industrial overcapacities, especially in heavy industries, remain a problem. The shift to establishing new growth engines for growth is ongoing, and in many areas will depend on successful reforms. As manufacturing continues to struggle, services are taking up the slack. Retail growth has fallen, but growth is still in the double digits. Online sales, which now account for 8.9% of total retail sales of consumer goods, have expanded by 41. in the first quarter. Online retailing and related services are also driving investment in the service sector. Investment in the tertiary industry increased by 14.7%, accounting for 57.5% of total fixed asset investment. Investment in agriculture, an industry which is in dire need of modernization, was up by 32., although the base is comparatively low. Infrastructure spending, particularly in railways, water projects, and urbanization, remain a vital pillar for growth. Although the Chinese economy remains reliant on old growth drivers, new drivers are emerging and are fundamental to moving China onto a more sustainable development path. For further questions please contact: Max J. Zenglein, Economic Analyst zenglein.max@bj.china.ahk.de Phone:
4 GDP 1 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Price levels 3% 1% -1% - -3% - -5% - Consumer price index Purchasing price index 4
5 Foreign trade Imports Exports Industrial production 1 Jan/Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan/Feb Mar 5
6 Retail Jan/Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan/Feb Mar Fixed asset investment Jan-Feb Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun Jan-Jul Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Jan-Mar 6
7 Foreign direct investment Business sentiment: purchasing manager index Manufacturing Non-manufacturing Note: An index above 50 indicates business expansion, while an index below 50 indicates contraction. 7
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