The mood in Britain THE CONTEXT SHAPING THE NEW AGENDA. Gideon Skinner, Research Director Ipsos MORI Social Research

Transcription

1 The mood in Britain THE CONTEXT SHAPING THE NEW AGENDA Gideon Skinner, Research Director Ipsos MORI Social Research

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3 What forces are shaping public opinion? 3 What s the mood of the nation? What are the challenges facing public services (and charities)? What wider social trends are important for the future?

4 What concerns us has changed a lot over the last 20 years What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? NHS UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION* Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index *Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

5 And London is a different country. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 5 Top mentions % Housing NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare Economy Immigration/immigrants Unemployment Crime/Law and Order/ASB Low pay/fair wages Poverty/Inequality Education/Schools Taxation 15% 22% 18% 21% 11% 19% 12% 18% 15% 16% 16% 16% 7% 34% 33% 39% 33% 29% 33% 44% London Britain Base: 9,907 English adults 18+, January December 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

6 Londoners are stressed about it! To what extent, if at all, do you personally feel that concerns about the cost of your housing cause you stress these days? Do they cause you 6 54% % A great deal % A fair amount Don t know 1 23 % None at all 21 % Not very much 44% 75% of private renters say housing costs cause them a great deal or fair amount of stress Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August 7 September Source: Ipsos MORI / London Councils

7 Under the radar? Poverty/inequality (but public agree something needs to be done on welfare) What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 7 Cameron becomes PM Sept 1999: Alastair Darling one child in three living in poverty January 2005: Make Poverty History campaign launched on New Year s Day July 2014: highest score recorded (18%) Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

8 Under the radar? Low pay/minimum wages/fair pay What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 8 Cameron becomes PM Highest recorded score (15%) Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

9 Under the radar? Europe What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 9 Cameron becomes PM Treaty of Accession: 10 new EU Member States France and Holland reject ratification of EU constitution Lowest score recorded (1%) Cameron s EU membership renegotiation enters final phase; highest score since June 2005 UKIP come first in Euro elections Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

10 Context AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

11 Life is more comfortable compared to the 1970s 96% 96% Washing machine ownership 71% Central heating 43%

12 Number of products in the average supermarket 8, ,

13 But we look back with nostalgia. People led happier lives in the old days when they had fewer problems to cope with Turkey China S Africa India Italy Brazil US Australia Russia Poland Total Belgium Argentina GB France S Korea Canada Germany Spain Japan Sweden 85% 75% 74% 72% 70% 70% 69% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 60% 59% 54% 48% 43% 35%

14 Maximum house prices 59,700,000 Maximum football transfer records 86,000, ,000 10,

15 CHANGE ANXIETY 77% agree the world is changing too fast 77% agree the world is an increasingly dangerous place to live 56% agree there are too many immigrants in

16 Can t forget the context of the years since the crash Thinking about the economic downturn, which of these statements comes closest to your view? 16 Don't know 13% 31% Even though the recession has been tough, Britain will be stronger when it gets through it The recession has been so tough that Britain will be weaker because of it for years to come 56% Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Future

17 And the record levels of economic optimism before the election have dissipated.. DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL 17 IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? GE 2015 GE Jul 2010 Sep 2010 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Mar Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 Mar Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Mar Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Mar Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23 rd 25 th January Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18 A better future no longer seems so certain in the West at least To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents generation, or will it be about the same? Better Total Great Britain T China Brazil Turkey India Japan Russia S Africa Total Argentina Sweden Australia Germany Poland S Korea US Canada GB Italy Spain France Belgium Under 30s 78% 48% 47% 46% 41% 41% 41% 37% 34% 32% 30% 30% 30% 27% 26% 24% 22% 21% 16% 16% 12% 18 Total 82% 52% 50% 51% 47% 42% 42% 42% 40% 40% 40% 38% 35% 40% 29% 33% 36% 34% 25% 25% 24% Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

19 What does this mean for public services?

20 THE AUSTERITY YEARS. WE DON T LIKE IT, BUT ARE WE LEARNING TO LIVE WITH IT? Document Name Here Month 2015 Version 1 Public Internal Use Only Confidential Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 21

21 ARE WE GETTING USED TO THE NEW NORMAL? BIG INCREASE IN THOSE SAYING BY CUTS. NOT AFFECTED As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 23% 76% 2% August % 15% 39% 37% November % 25% 49% 10% 8% 33% 59% Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8 th 11 th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Document Name Here Month 2015 Version 1 Public Internal Use Only Confidential Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 22

22 WE ARE ALSO WRONG ON ACTUAL LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING WE UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF CUTS TO HOUSING, EDUCATION, TRANSPORT & POLICING BUT DON T APPRECIATE THE INCREASES AWARDED TO PENSIONERS AND THE NHS. AVERAGE GUESS 2% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 13% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS AVERAGE GUESS 3% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 4% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS Ipsos Public Affairs PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23

23 MANY SERVICES HOLDING UP SURPRISINGLY WELL. Eight in ten still satisfied with their GP Local services not perceived to have taken a hit in quality in their bread-and-butter streetscene services lighting, cleaning and bin collection. Document Name Here Month 2015 Version 1 Public Internal Use Only Confidential Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 24 24

24 And many people accepted the need for cuts AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAVE BEEN A RANGE OF SPENDING RESTRICTIONS AND CUTS ON PUBLIC SERVICES UNDER THE COALITION GOVERNMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING BEST REFLECTS YOUR VIEW? 25 Spending restrictions and cuts have reduced the waste in public services without affecting services much Spending restrictions and cuts have reduced the waste in public services but affected services a lot Spending restrictions and cuts have affected services a lot without reducing waste 13% 28% 31% 44% spending cuts have reduced waste 59% spending cuts have affected services Spending restrictions and cuts didn t reduce waste or affect public services 4% Don't know/none of these 24% Base: 2,024 online British adults aged 18-75, April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/Policy Network

25 BUT BIG INCREASES IN CONCERN FOR THE FUTURE OF THE NHS AND POLICE. Thinking about the quality of THE NHS/the way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to? % get worse NHS Policing Mar- 02 Oct Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov- 06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug- 08 Mar- 09 Oct Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov- 13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug- 15 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Document Name Here Month 2015 Version 1 Public Internal Use Only Confidential Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 26

26 And real concern about future risks 27 Increased use of digital/privacy implications Resourcing (quality/access/ eligibility impacts) Social change (aging, popn growth & immigration, diversity) Particular concerns for: - services: longer-term, less visible, not ring-fenced - citizens: heavy service users, vulnerable, or going through lifestyle transitions Impact on staff (training budgets, pace of change, loss of experience) Private/third sector delivery Costshunting Complex/multiagency delivery systems Source: Ipsos MORI

27 Public service leaders say easy changes already made, so looking ahead, challenges even greater More radical approaches require new skills, political will or difficult conversations with users. 28 Stop delivering some services Cut more staff (including frontline) Make better use of technology Make better use of staff through more flexible contracts Work in partnership with other sectors more Commission more services Enable communities to do more for themselves Enable other providers to do more Source: Ipsos MORI/Deloitte

28 And even though 76% say how they are treated is as important as the final outcome, there is a long way to go How often, if at all, do you think organisations that deliver public services? 29 Always Often Sometimes Hardly ever Never Don't know understand your needs? 4% 17% 49% 18% 10% 3% work with other public services to give you something they couldn t on their own? 2% 15% 44% 20% 11% 8% listen to your preferences? 2% 13% 42% 24% 15% 4% offer you a personalised service? 2% 12% 34% 26% 22% 3% involve you in decisions about how you use the service? 2% 11% 35% 27% 21% 4% Base: 1,007 British adults 15+; July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/Collaborate

29 Where do charities fit in? Ipsos MORI Version 1 Internal Use

30 Becoming more important to our society? Have you, or any of your close family or friends ever benefited from or used the services of a charity? % no % % yes Base: Adults aged 18+ in England and Wales 2014 (1163); 2012 (1,142); 2010 (1,150); 2008 (1,008), and 2005 (1,001). Source: Charity Commission Ipsos MORI Version 1 Internal Use

31 Public perceptions around the sector are mixed.. Our research for the Charity Commission suggests trust in charities remains relatively high (a mean score of 6.7 out of 10)... but also reveals that people increasingly agree that some fundraising methods make them feel uncomfortable (66% vs. 60% in 2010) and there is still a perception that charities spend too much on salaries and administration (58% vs. 59% in 2012) Ipsos MORI Version 1 Internal Use Source: Telephone survey conducted among 1,163 adults aged 18+ in England and Wales, 2014

32 Ipsos MORI Veracity Index 2015 charity chief execs less trusted than doctors, teachers and hairdressers Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? Doctors Teachers Judges Scientists Hairdressers The Police Ordinary Man/Woman in the street Clergy/Priests TV news readers Civil Servants Pollsters Lawyers Managers in the NHS Charity Chief Executives Trade Union Officials Local Councillors Builders Bankers Managers in Local Government Business Leaders Journalists Estate Agents Government Ministers Politicians generally 25% 25% 22% 21% 53% 51% 49% 47% 46% 43% 42% 37% 37% 35% 59% 69% 68% 68% 67% 65% 80% 79% 89% 86% % trust to tell the truth Veracity Index 2015 Generational Analysis January 2016 Version 1 PUBLIC Base: 990 British adults aged 15+, fieldwork 5 th December th January

33 What are people thinking: large or small? What comes to mind Large organisations 73% Small organisations 27% More likely to donate to 16% Annual income > 100k 29% 71% The sector reality 16% Annual income > 100k 33% Annual income between 10k and 100k 51% Annual income < 10k 930 online adults age 16-75; charity turnover information from NCVO UK Civil Society Almanac Source: NPC/NCVO/Ipsos MORI Ipsos MORI Version 1 Internal Use

34 What mental image leads to more/less trust? Service provision focus Run by volunteers National organisation Publically funded Run by volunteers Not involved in politics Mean trust score: AND AND 6.53 AND AND 6.42 Base: 136 Base: 385 Trust score overall 5.88 Awareness raising focus Internationa l organisation Run by professional s Run by professional s Large organisation AND AND 4.96 Base: 209 Awareness raising focus AND AND 4.64 Base: 99 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Internal Use

35 What does this all mean for public services? Public services still central to Britons values and worldview in difficult times Particularly core services (health, education, police) Equal access and consistency in standards key values but fairness means different things to different people 36 High expectations but no-one thinks services are or will be perfect Many have frustrations around customer service, inefficiencies, management while distrust in politicians also creates scepticism Openness to doing things differently but risk-averse, need reassurance, and safeguards in place So far many yet to feel that cuts have hit service quality but real concerns about future challenges Can public services continue to adapt and evolve before hitting a tipping point?

36 Looking to the future generations apart? Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

37 Overall public opinion has moved significantly against further redistribution via welfare in Britain. The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% Agree 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Disagree 0% All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

38 But analysis shows attitudes to redistribution change across generations - there are clear cohort and period effects The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% % Agree 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1. Decline in support across board 2. But generations are different and stay different 3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers ( ) Generation x ( ) Generation y ( ) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

39 Lack of support for redistribution doesn t mean Generation Y is a selfish or uncaring generation Which, if any, of these would be your highest /second highest priority for extra spending? 70% 60% 50% 40% Data for generation Y (born 1980 onwards) Child Benefits Old age pensions Disability benefits 30% 20% Single parent benefits 10% Unemployment Benefits 0% Base: All data points represent>200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

40 Long term implications for political engagement Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 70% % Yes 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born ) Generation X (born ) Generation Y (born 1980-) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

41 And attitudes to other institutions such as religion and the welfare state Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? 90 % Yes Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born ) Generation X (born ) Generation Y (born 1980-) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

42 Generational divide on immigration has grown What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? Immigration/immigrants 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% GE2010 Pre-war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1965 Gen X (born between 1966 and 1979) Gen Y (born since 1980) 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% All data points represent > 200 responses Source: Ipsos Source: MORI Issues British Social Index Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

43 While also helping explain changes in social values such as gay relationships and gender roles Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all? 90% 80% % Not wrong at all 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born ) Generation X (born ) Generation Y (born 1980-) All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 Internal Use Only Version 1 Confidential Version 1 Strictly Confidential

44 Baby boomers are seen as the luckiest generation. I D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE THINGS THAT MAKE UP PEOPLE S QUALITY OF LIFE SUCH AS ACCESS TO JOBS, HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION, HOUSING, BENEFITS FROM GOVERNMENT, AND SO ON. AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, WOULD YOU SAY WILL HAVE HAD THE BEST QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THEIR LIFETIME? AND WHICH WILL HAVE HAD THE WORST? 46 % BEST QUALITY OF LIFE People aged 70 or over (pre-war generation) 20% 29% -9 % WORST QUALITY OF LIFE People aged between 50 and 69 (baby-boomers) 5% 39% +34 People aged between 36 and 49 (Generation X) 7% 17% +10 People aged between 15 and 35 (Generation Y) 10% 22% -12 People aged under 15 (Generation Z) 8% 27% -19 Best minus worst quality of life Base: 1,021British adults 18+, 17 th 19 th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

45 While pre-war and Gen Y are the top priorities for help NOW THINK ABOUT THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PEOPLE IN BRITAIN WHO HAVE GROWN UP IN DIFFERENT GENERATIONS. AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR GOVERNMENT HELP FOR THEIR QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS? AND WHICH SHOULD BE THE LOWEST PRIORITY? 47 % HIGHEST PRIORITY People aged 70 or over (prewar generation) 14% 27% +13 % LOWEST PRIORITY People aged between 50 and 69 (baby-boomers) 9% 17% -8 People aged between 36 and 49 (Generation X) 8% 26% -18 People aged between 15 and 35 (Generation Y) 11% 30% +19 People aged under 15 (Generation Z) 14% 19% +5 Highest minus lowest priority Base: 1,021British adults 18+, 17 th 19 th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

46 But we aren t selfish most of us still put other generations first NOW THINK ABOUT THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PEOPLE IN BRITAIN WHO HAVE GROWN UP IN DIFFERENT AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS. GENERATIONS. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR GOVERNMENT HELP FOR THEIR QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS? AND WHICH SHOULD BE THE LOWEST PRIORITY? 48 HIGHEST PRIORITY Pre-war Gen X Gen Y Gen Z Pre-war Babyboomers Babyboomers LOWEST PRIORITY Gen X Gen Y Gen Z Base: 1,021British adults 18+, 17 th 19 th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

47 Only going to become more important to understand generational patterns Generational patterns seen across Europe UK an extreme case Need to be careful on assumptions about young: Do not see large institutional responses as automatic solutions Unstoppable individualising pressures in culture/technology: so much of experience can be filtered/tailored But not uncaring or selfish: as active, just in different ways Danger of wrong conversation with them we still don t fully understand how to react Real fragmentation in future not class/wealth/inequality OR generation it s both/where they interact

48 50 Thank